The consequences of armed conflict on household composition

We evaluate the effect of large-scale violent conflict on the household composition of internally displaced persons using quantitative data from Colombia. We use a panel database of migrants constructed with the Sisben database (used to target social programmes in Colombia) for 2006–2009. We follow migrant mothers and children who belong to nuclear-biparental households before migration, and analyse the changes in the composition of their households after migration through multilevel multinomial logistic models. We do this separately for rural and urban migrants because they exhibit differences in household composition traditions and exposure to armed conflict. We find that urban and rural migrants have different migration strategies in both peaceful and armed conflict circumstances. We conclude that the household compositions of mothers and children are differently affected by violence, which might be caused by family separation; for example, rural children have a higher probability than mothers of belonging to households which are not nuclear biparental. We also find that exposure to violence can increase or decrease the effects of individual variables; for instance, in peaceful situations it is more likely that a household remains intact during migration when the number of children per adult increases; however, this effect is attenuated in violence situations.     

Impacts of price and productivity changes on banana‐growing households in Uganda

This article compares the effects of changing market prices and farm productivity on the welfare of banana‐growing households in the Ntungamo district of Uganda. A heterogeneous‐agent model is applied via a series of mathematical optimization problems, to simulate production and consumption responses of 70 farm households surveyed in 2006. Results show that a given increase in productivity has a greater impact on poverty alleviation than that same increase in market prices. Despite the effects of productivity gains being comparable across different types of household groups, price improvements primarily benefit the incomes of households who are involved in rural producer organizations, who are located closer to markets, and who sell at the market.     

Household-level effects of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program under price and policy shifts

This study examined how agricultural households involved in China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) could respond to expected changes in environmental and livestock policies and changing commodity prices. We calibrated a farm household model using 2009 survey data collected in northeast Gansu Province, China, and examined the responses of four different household groups. Household groups were distinguished based on the resources they possessed for either cropping, livestock husbandry or off-farm employment. We also calculated the opportunity cost of converting sloping land from grain crop production to perennial grass production and included the net value of the replacement crop in these calculations. Our model simulations indicated that subsistence-oriented households were most likely to participate in the SLCP, and that SLCP payment reductions could have large negative income effects for this group. Reductions in SLCP payments increased income inequality among households in the study area. Migration- and cropping-oriented households have fewer incentives to participate in the SLCP. With rising commodity prices, SLCP payments need to rise to avoid that subsistence-oriented households reconvert their land from perennial grasses to annual grain crops. Local government policies related to livestock production are being devised in Gansu as a method to lift incomes, and these policies could also have positive environmental benefits by increasing grass production on sloping land. The introduction of these livestock promotion policies had modest income effects but did not alter the area grown with grasses under the SLCP.     

Expenditure Pattern for Food Away from Home Consumption in Turkey

ABSTRACT

One of the largest recent changes in consumer food purchasing behavior is the trend towards greater consumption of food eaten outside the home. Between 1994 and 2000, the share of total food expenditures spent on food away from home (FAFH) increased from 7 to 15% with an increasing share for fast-food facilities. This study focuses on whether demographic and socioeconomic factors have detectable effects on Turkish FAFH expenditures. This question is of interest because previous studies suggest that increasing household income, education, female labor participation and changing lifestyle especially in developing countries increased household FAFH consumption share but decreased food at home consumption share. However, no study to our knowledge has examined the combined effect of income, education, employment, and family status on Turkish FAFH consumption. The data for this research were obtained from personal interviews of representative sample households of the province of Adana in Turkey. The findings of this study generally indicate that restaurant facilities, employment of wife and education, composition of household, and income are statistically significant determinants of FAFH consumption.     

Modeling household behavior in developing countries: discussion

A large and growing body of literature has examined how agricultural households cope with risk. Much of the work has focused on which types of households are better able to smooth consumption, testing whether households with more resources and greater access to income-smoothing institutions, such as credit markets or well-functioning labor markets exhibit greater consumption smoothing. However, income shocks may have different effects upon different individuals within households, and differences in individual ability to smooth income or consumption may have welfare consequences which go beyond foregone income. The development of collective household models challenges the assumption that individuals within households maximize a single utility function. The assumption of income pooling has also been rejected in a growing body of empirical research on intrahousehold resource allocation. However, research on risk-pooling within households and differences in individual abilities to smooth consumption is relatively new. Selected papers are discussed.     

互联网嵌入对农户化学农药减量使用的影响——基于PSM模型的计量分析

[目的]在数字农业和绿色农业的双重背景下,探讨互联网嵌入对农户化学农药减量使用的影响,有助于实现农业数字化和绿色化发展。[方法]文章基于四川省712份微观农户调研数据,采用倾向得分匹配法实证检验了互联网嵌入是否会减少农户化学农药使用,并分析了其影响效应在不同农户群体中的异质性。[结果]互联网嵌入对农户减少化学农药使用具有显著的正向影响,其平均处理效应为0.114;互联网嵌入能有效促进小农户、专业种植大户和家庭农场减少化学农药使用,平均处理效应分别介于0.104～0.113、0.078～0.103和0.116～0.128;互联网嵌入对家庭农场减少化学农药使用的促进作用略大于小农户和专业种植大户,而相比于专业种植大户,互联网嵌入对小农户化学农药减量使用的促进作用更强。[结论]应推进农村新基建发展,提升农村互联网普及率,采取差异化的措施,鼓励家庭农场发展,引导家庭农场将互联网技术应用于农业生产,并加强互联网技术宣传与培训,提升小农户和专业种植大户嵌入互联网的能力,以促进农户减少化学农药使用。     

秦巴山区不同类型贫困户易地搬迁意愿及影响因素研究基于重庆418户农户调查

目的 通过对重庆秦巴山区贫困农户的调研,分析秦巴山区不同类型贫困农户的易地扶贫搬迁意愿及影响因素,找出影响贫困农户搬迁的关键因子,为助推脱贫攻坚提供科学决策依据。方法 文章运用二元Logistic回归模型,选取23个指标构建影响因素评价指标体系,并运用主成分分析法提取13个主要因子,分析主要因子对不同类型贫困农户的易地搬迁意愿影响因素。结果 贫困农户搬迁意愿较强,但不同类型贫困户的搬迁意愿具有明显差异,低保兜底型贫困户>非农型贫困户>兼业型贫困户>务农型贫困户;在影响因素方面,家庭人口数量、医疗教育负担、住房结构、搬迁政策认知情况是影响贫困农户搬迁意愿的共同因素;人均耕地面积、家庭年人均纯收入、耕作半径、耕地是否流转是务农型贫困户的差异性因素,年龄、非农劳动力比重、距离村干道距离是非农型贫困户的差异性因素,家庭年人均纯收入、耕地是否流转以及住房结构是兼业型贫困户的差异性因素,人均耕地面积、人均住房面积和搬迁方式满意情况是低保兜底型贫困户的差异性因素。结论 不同类型贫困农户易地搬迁意愿及影响因素具有显著差异,政府应该在充分尊重农户意愿的基础上推进易地扶贫搬迁工作,并构建一套长效稳定增收机制。     

Decomposing the Variation in Generic Advertising Response over Time

A time-varying parameter model of fluid milk and cheese demand reveals that changes in age composition, race composition, and food spending patterns away from home were most important to changes in generic advertising response over time. Advertising response elasticities indicate that generic advertising could be enhanced by targeting young children households for fluid milk, and Asian/Hispanic households for cheese. Results also indicate that shifting targeted advertising efforts to the away-from-home market may increase generic cheese advertising response.     

北京农村能源消费现状及影响因素分析——基于北京市1 866个农村住户的调研

[目的]文章通过对北京市农村住户的能源消费调查和数据分析,研究北京农村能源消费的总体现状、不同地形、不同区之间的消费差异以及主要能源消费的影响因素。[方法]运用描述性分析和多元回归,基于北京市13个区214个村庄1 866住户的调查数据,重点分析北京农村能源消费情况以及煤炭、电和薪柴3种主要能源消费量的影响因素。[结果]从能源普及率来看,北京农村能源以电、煤炭和液化气为主;从消费量比重来看,以煤炭(60.4%)、薪柴(17.9%)、电(12.9%)为主,太阳能和沼气清洁能源比重较低,煤炭几乎全部用于家庭取暖;平原区和近郊区的电、煤炭、天然气消费量都明显高于其他地区,薪柴低于其他地区,太阳能和液化气消费量的地区差别不大。地形特征和家庭常住人口对各种能源消费量影响都很大,家庭收入主要影响电(正向)和薪柴消费量(反向),对煤炭消费量影响不明显,峰谷电价对电消费量影响较大,采暖面积对煤炭和电有影响,对薪柴消费没有影响;是否节能改造和对雾霾认识对能源消费量影响不确定。[结论]采取科学分类指导及措施,改变农村冬季采暖方式,改造常规能源,加大对新能源、可再生能源的开发与利用,加大农村经济发展和能源改造政策支持,以促进北京农村能源利用的优化升级。     

不同模式下农村宅基地退出的农户福利效应研究以福建省晋江市为例

目的 为合理引导农村宅基地有序退出并制定出科学的宅基地退出管理策略,亟需开展不同模式下农村宅基地退出的农户福利效应研究,准确把握农户在此过程中的生活质量变化状况。方法 文章以阿玛蒂亚·森提出的可行能力理论为基础,构建宅基地退出的农户福利评价指标体系,利用晋江市的调研数据,运用模糊数学综合评价方法,评价和比较不同模式下农村宅基地退出的农户福利效应及其差异。结果 资产置换模式和指标置换模式下宅基地退出后农户的总福利水平都有所改善,总模糊指数分别从0.378、0.404上升到0.399、0.418,货币补偿模式总福利水平则呈下降的状态,从0.412下降到0.373。其中资产置换模式和指标置换模式在社会保障、居住条件和心理状况的农户福利水平有所上升,家庭经济和决策参与的农户福利水平下降,两者改变程度有所差异。货币补偿模式只有居住条件的农户福利得到改善。宅基地退出后农户之间的福利差异进一步扩大,福利差异系数从0.114上升到0.147。结论 不同模式的宅基地退出致使农户福利效应差异明显,使其对农户的生活方式和长远生计的影响程度有所不同。因此,应综合考虑不同宅基地退出模式下农户福利效应差异,从科学设定宅基地退出的补偿标准、规范宅基地退出程序、分类实施宅基地退出保障措施等方面提升农户福利水平和促进农户福利均衡发展。     

FARM HOUSEHOLD STRATEGIES AND PLURIACTIVITY IN UPLAND SCOTLAND

This paper considers how farm households in Grampians, an upland area of Scotland, are adapting to changing economic and political pressures. Most farms in the area are family farms, and such farm households are being exhorted to diversify their sources of income and to reduce their reliance on agriculture. Based on surveys in 1988 and 1989, this study finds, to the contrary, that only a small proportion of farmers has been reducing reliance on agricultural sources of income, and few anticipate a declining share of their household income to come from farming. Most farmers are loathe to undertake ancillary non-agricultural occupations because of the lower status implied; and farmers in the study area are found to have a very poor understanding of the broad policy context within which they produce. The paper also confirms the finding of other studies that off-farm employment of household members makes a significant contribution to farm household income; and the nature of such pluriactivity and of pluriactive farm households in the area is reviewed.     

退耕还林地区农户退耕意愿研究——对陕西省农户的实证研究

以陕西省米脂、安塞和麟游3个县的205个农户的实地调查数据为依据,对影响农户退耕还林意愿的主要因素进行了计量经济分析。研究表明,农户的退耕意愿受到户主的年龄、受教育程度和交通状况、是否有村干部亲戚、农户收入变动等多种因素的影响,并随着这些因素的变化而不断变化。在做退耕决策时,农户考虑各种因素的影响,其行为总体来看是理性的。     

The role of health,experience, and educational attainment in agricultural production: Evidence from smallholders in Burkina Faso

We apply parametric and nonparametric methods to data from smallholders in Burkina Faso and assess the role that human capital characteristics play in the agricultural production process. Our results point to the technology‐changing nature of health, education, and experience. However, effects are rather heterogeneous. The productivity elasticity of health is much larger for households in the lowest landholding quintiles, while returns to experience are larger for households in the upper quintile. In terms of policy implications, our results suggest that productivity can be stimulated through the allocation of expenditure to social services that enhance certain types of human capital. Interventions aimed at improving the health status of households with smaller landholdings could have particularly strong welfare effects.     

多维视阈下土地流转的减贫效应及其异质性研究——基于CFPS2018微观数据分析

目的 土地流转是深化农村土地制度改革的重要探索,是解决农村贫困问题的重要路径,以土地流转为抓手对进一步实施乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2018年4 445份中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据,从收入和贫困脆弱性两个维度入手,构建可行广义最小二乘法（FGLS）模型并运用倾向得分匹配（PSM）法分析土地流转的减贫效应及其异质性。结果 （1）在收入维度下,土地流转户的家庭收入水平相比未流转户高12.07%,其中受教育程度、家庭规模和工资水平的差异是影响农户家庭收入增加的关键因素;（2）在贫困脆弱性维度下,土地流转户的贫困脆弱性比未流转户低5.13%,西部地区贫困脆弱性水平为0.419远高于中部和东部地区;（3）从土地流转方式来看,土地转出户的贫困脆弱性比土地转入户显著低0.018,通过PSM解决内生性问题后结果依然稳健。结论 加快健全土地经营权流转机制,根据不同地区、不同农户的土地流转特征出台针对性的相关政策,强化新型农业经营主体的带动作用,完善农村社会化服务体系。     

国有林权制度改革后承包户投资及收入调查

根据黑龙江省伊春市参与国有林权制度改革试点的118个承包户实地调查样本数据,对承包户的初始投资、追加投资以及家庭收入进行了统计性描述。研究结果表明:承包户的投资能力不强;承包林地的面积和离家距离对承包户的追加投资有影响;短期内承包户的收入仍然依赖于林业局的工资,而承包户林下经济投资的收益已有所显现。     

Effects of Increasing Agricultural Productivity in a Multisectoral Model for the Philippines

This paper investigates empirically the economy-wide effects of agricultural productivity increases in the Philippines, reporting the results of a quantitative analysis based on a general equilibrium framework. A multisectoral, price endogenous model of the Philippine economy is employed, emphasizing not only agriculture but also other production sectors with which it closely interacts, as well as the distinction between rural and urban households in their income generation and consumption patterns. Among other findings, the differential effects on the real income of rural households vis-a-vis urban households arising from increased productivity in the various components of the agricultural production sector are striking. The resulting improvements in the trade balance and national income, among other macroeconomic variables, are also relatively significant. Moreover, there are significant differences in the economy-wide effects among the four sectors of food and agriculture distinguished in the study. Particularly interesting is the highly favorable impact of rising productivity in the food processing sector on agricultural crop production and rural income, a linkage effect that has not received much attention in the development literature.     

Smallholder participation in vegetable exports and age‐disaggregated labor allocation in Northern Tanzania

Modern agricultural supply chains have been playing an increasingly important role in developing countries and have had significant effects on rural labor markets. This article analyses the effects of smallholder farmer participation in export vegetable supply chains in Northern Tanzania on both household hired labor demand and off‐farm labor supply, using an age‐disaggregated approach. In our sample, neither separability nor exogeneity of smallholder farmer participation in export supply chains can be rejected. Hence, we apply lognormal double‐hurdle models and find that participation in export supply chains positively affects households’ decision to hire labor from all age groups. We also find that it increases the unconditional overall level of hired labor demand, while the age‐disaggregated analysis shows that these effects mostly benefit rural youth. However, our sample does not allow us to establish statistically significant evidence of an effect on household off‐farm labor supply although the point estimates point to nonnegligible positive effect sizes.     

The effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the distribution of household welfare and poverty in rural Kenya1

This study estimates the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the welfare of a sample of rural Kenyan households. The usual first‐order welfare approximation formula is extended to a second‐order formula that allows for supply and demand responses to the price change. Results show that many rural households are not affected greatly by the price change, and there are about as many gainers as losers. However, these full sample results mask important differences across regions. Welfare gains generally take place in major production areas while losses are in areas where most households are net buyers of maize. Semiparametric methods are used to investigate the relationship between income and the size of the welfare effect, and poverty dominance techniques are applied to study the impacts of the maize price increase on rural poverty.     

基于农户的能源作物种植成本收益及替代性研究——以云南省临沧市膏桐种植为例

以云南省临沧市膏桐种植为例,探讨农户参与膏桐种植的几种方式,重点分析农户在不同模式下的成本收益状况,并比较膏桐与其它农作物之间的替代关系。结果表明:目前种植膏桐的经济效益不高,但膏桐对山地作物有良好的替代性,未来发展有赖于种植模式的进一步优化;下游成品油的价格走势对能源作物的推广会带来系统风险。     

基于效用视角的自然保护区周边农户薪柴消费影响因素分析——以秦岭太白山自然保护区为例

基于秦岭太白山自然保护区周边社区农户微观层面的调查数据,采用ologit模型和ols模型,从薪柴带给农户的效用角度,定量分析影响薪柴消费的主要因素。研究结果表明:家庭经济条件对薪柴消费有负向影响,女性家庭成员个数、户主年龄有正向影响,农户生计和劳动力配置非农化程度有负向影响,农户居住的地理位置以及能源消费习惯也是影响薪柴消费的重要因素。