Cropland expansion and grassland loss in the eastern Dakotas: New insights from a farm-level survey

The western Corn Belt region of the United States has become a hotspot for agricultural extensification and consequent land use and land cover changes. The goals of this research were to characterize geographic patterns of grassland loss resulting from cropland expansion in the eastern Dakotas, and to understand how these changes were associated with characteristics of individual farms and farm operators. We collected data on grassland conversion and other land use decisions through a mail survey of farm operators in North and South Dakota. Overall, 40% of respondents converted at least some grassland to cropland between 2004 and 2014, and the total acreage of converted grassland was equivalent to 5.1% of the surveyed farm acreage. Although most converted grassland acres (3.2% of farm acreage) were from land enrolled in the conservation reserve program (CRP), there were also substantial amounts of native grassland conversion (1.0%) and tame grassland conversion (0.9%). The total acreage of grassland conversion was more than four times larger than the acreage enrolled in CRP and other conservation programs. Different types of grassland conversion (e.g., native grassland versus CRP) were concentrated in different parts of the study region, and were spatially disjunct from the areas of highest conservation program enrollment. Larger farms were more likely than smaller farms to expand their cropland acreage and accounted for a disproportionate share of grassland conversion. Younger farm operators, higher levels of farm income, higher proportions of rented croplands, and marginal yields were also associated with cropland expansion and grassland conversion. Although CRP and other land retirement programs will remain important policy mechanisms for conservation in this region, they are not sufficient to maintain current levels of grassland cover and do not provide protection for native grasslands. Alternative conservation strategies and new agricultural policies are thus critically needed to maintain the ecosystem services provided by grasslands.     

The Spanish path of agrarian change, 1950–2005: From authoritarian to export‐oriented productivism

The aim of this study is to determine whether the evolution of Spain's agrarian change, between 1950 and 2005, exhibits any features important enough to differentiate it from the common model of developed countries in Western Europe. On the one hand, the Spanish agrarian transformations share the main features of the changes in Western Europe: technological innovation, increased production and productivity, the diminishing importance of the agricultural sector, close integration with the industrial sector, and a high environmental impact. On the other hand, a series of important peculiarities can be observed in Spain's agrarian change: strong expansion of intensive livestock farming; the role of increased irrigation in explaining the transformation of agriculture; policies that offered very little support to the agricultural sector under a dictatorship that denied a voice to farmers; and the prominent role of agriculture in the economy despite its small contribution to GDP.     

Specialization and Diversification in Agricultural Transformation: The Case of West Punjab, 1903–92

In this article, the role of crop specialization and diversification in agricultural transformation is investigated empirically. Changes in aggregate land productivity are associated structurally with inter-crop and inter-district reallocation of land use. Results from a region with the oldest history of agricultural commercialization in developing countries show that cropping patterns of subsistence agriculture changed substantially, with rising concentration of crop acreage in districts with higher and growing productivity. Rapid specialization in crop production was observed at the district level recently, after a phase with sporadic specialization. These changes reflected comparative advantage and contributed to the improvement in aggregate land productivity.     

AGRICULTURAL LAND,TECHNOLOGY AND FARM POLICY

The relative importance of farmland and of agriculture in a developed economy decreases over time, largely due to the landsaving bias in technological change. In spite of this decrease, or perhaps because of it, agricultural policies have sought to transfer income to farmers from consumers and taxpayers. Since World War II, a primary instrument which the US has employed in pursuing this transfer has been a system of acreage controls that restricts the input of land as a factor in field crop production. This programme has resulted in the transfer of benefits to land owners through capitalisation into land values. Evidence from a translog cost function and share equations of the US agricultural sector suggests that government intervention has moderated the decrease in the share of land in the value of agricultural production. At the same time, land-saving bias in technological change has been reinforced by the induced scarcity of land, thereby acting to reduce the land share.     

Agriculture Policy and Development in Iran

This article is concerned with the production and trade of agricultural products in Iran. The development of the agriculture sector of the economy of Iran is analyzed from 1980 to the present day. By doing so, it is possible to see long-term trends in both the production and trade of all agricultural products. This review will attempt to show trends which have occurred in Iran in the post revolutionary period. They include the rise in the level of production of agricultural products. At the same time the increases in the production has not kept pace with a substantial rise in population, leading to increased imports of all categories of agricultural products. Iran, once an exporter, is now a net importer of agricultural products. This paper will also examine the way in which Iran is now seeking to develop it agriculture sector and to what extent it has been successful.     

Supply responses of peasant cultivators in the Sudan—a rational expectations model

Abstract

Most attempts to increase agricultural production rely on incentives to the farmer, especially regarding market prices, and a positive response by him. In this paper the latter is analysed with reference to two major oilseed export crops in the Sudan, groundnuts and sesame, under small peasant farming conditions. The methodology used to study the behaviour of farmers is based on Rational Expectations techniques and the data used are drawn from official time series material. The results obtained show that small farmers are responsive to price changes for these crops by adjusting crop areas. The implications of the results are of importance to policy makers in that peasant production can be stimulated by ensuring that the producers obtain sufficient price incentives to do so. An immediate priority is an in‐depth study of the competitiveness of the marketing system to provide adequate information on which to base remedial measures to ensure that the price mechanism transmits the appropriate signals to the farmers. A further important policy aspect is the need to change the reliance of the small peasant sector on shifting agriculture to maintain soil fertility, because of the increasing population pressure on land. In the longer term farmers should adjust to real price rises not by increasing the amount of land cultivated but by raising the productivity of their holdings in a new system of sedentary agriculture.     

农业适度规模经营：CES生产函数下的解释

[目的]经济学中经常出现这一现象,在生产要素替代关系相对微弱的情况下,经济总量水平与资源配置效果并非由最优的要素资源所决定,而是取决于最劣的要素资源。为揭示我国农业适度规模经营中是否存在"木桶效应",[方法]利用1990—2014年国有农场相关数据,通过对CES生产函数的拓展与改良,分析了我国农业适度规模经营中的要素资源配置问题。[结果]"木桶效应"存在于我国农业适度规模经营中,土地和劳动力成为发展农业适度规模经营的"短板"要素;[结论]虽然新型农业生产要素对粮食增量产生的作用越来越明显,然而土地资源的不可替代性以及其他要素对劳动力的替代存在边界,使得农业适度规模中的资源配置效果最终由土地和劳动力决定;农业适度规模经营并非是追求单一生产要素的扩张,而是实现土地、劳动力、农业资本、农业机械、农资、农业科技等全要素的高效组合。     

The Ties Made in the Harvest: Nicaraguan Farm‐worker Networks in Costa Rica's Agricultural Exports

Traditional and nontraditional export agriculture expansion dramatically changed the social and economic landscapes in the global south. An examination of one aspect of south–south international migration, Nicaraguan migrant economic integration into Costa Rica's export agriculture sector, reveals how production systems in the traditional and nontraditional agricultural sectors shape migrant social networks in distinct ways in the global south and its significance for both migrant workers and the agricultural sectors they work in. The rapid expansion of nontraditional export agriculture – the essence of agricultural development in Costa Rica – depends on the traditional crop production structure of coffee farms. The experiences of Nicaraguan migrant workers and their social ties to each other in nontraditional export agriculture and the coffee farms in Costa Rica demonstrate how different production structures call for distinct fragile and conflicted social networks ties between migrants. The economic integration of migrant workers relies on opportunistic and weak ties that are both gendered and contradictory.     

Food Regime Analysis in a Post‐Neoliberal Era: Argentina and the Expansion of Transgenic Soybeans

This paper uses the food regime literature to analyse the political and economic relations promoting the expansion of soybeans in Argentina following the post‐neoliberal turn in the early 2000s. Continuities of the agrarian expansion from the neoliberal to post‐neoliberal model highlight the state's role in supporting a neoliberal food regime. Neoregulation in the post‐neoliberal agenda continues to favour increased production of transgenic food over ecological and human‐health considerations. Moreover, the emergence of new corporate and transnational actors has contributed to a new form of corporate‐agrarian governance premised on biotechnology. First, a food regime lens is used to describe the expansion of transgenic soybeans in Argentina, followed by an analysis of planning documents to show the state's position in reproducing neoliberal discourses and policies favouring the expansion of agriculture. The conclusion discusses the utility of food regime analysis for explaining the new forms of agricultural governance in Argentina.     

Externalities in the agricultural export sector and economic growth: a developing country perspective

For years economists have ignored the diversity in agriculture and its potential to increase long run growth rates by enhancing a country's knowledge base. Non-traditional agriculture requires significant investments in the infrastructure and knowledge; and therefore, has the potential to increase long run growth rates. Policy makers in developing countries have tended to enact macroeconomic policies designed to enhance the manufacturing sector at the expense of the agricultural sector. A theoretical model is developed to explain the dynamics between two non-traditional export sectors and the long run economic growth of the country. The model illustrates that growth in highly perishable agricultural exports, not domestic production of manufactured goods, can potentially lead to higher long run growth rates. The model is applied to the fruit and flower industries in Colombia to bring forth an example with real world relevance.     

基于生产要素视角的重庆市农业供给效率与发展潜力分析

目的 重庆市作为我国西部大开发重要的综合产业基地,探究该地区农业供给效率和农业发展潜力对促进农业可持续发展和农业政策制定具有积极意义。方法 文章以2001—2017年为研究时段,采用C-D生产函数模型对农业供给效率进行动态分析,采用熵权法构建农业发展潜力指数评价模型,并根据各地区农业发展潜力指数构建农业发展潜力竞争模型。结果 生产要素弹性分析结果表明2001—2017年农业劳动力弹性、农业土地弹性和化肥使用量弹性呈现负增长趋势,在农业供给侧结构中的贡献程度在逐渐减弱。农业资本弹性、农业机械总动力弹性和农业技术进步随着时间呈现增长的趋势,应该加大农业资本的投入,提高农业机械化程度,最大程度地提高农业生产效率。综合分析生产要素弹性和规模报酬指数,2001—2017年重庆市农业供给效率在不断提高。农业发展潜力指数分析结果表明2001—2017年全市农业发展潜力指数从47.15增长到60.13,各区县农业发展潜力指数也都呈明显的增长趋势。结论 重庆市农业经济增长方式已经由外延式增长方式逐渐转化为内涵式增长方式,农业经营方式从粗放型向密集型转化,农业供给效率在明显上升,各地区农业发展潜力指数在逐渐增加,经济发展程度对农业发展潜力具有明显的促进作用。     

Medium-term EU integration impacts on Norwegian agriculture: A partial equilibrium analysis

The paper analyses and discusses possible impacts on Norwegian agriculture of an EU membership based on the regionalized agricultural sector model CAPRI. Norwegian agriculture is characterized by a small-scale farming structure and high levels of support. Previous analyses have shown that Norwegian agriculture is expected to undergo dramatic changes because of EU membership in terms of farm income, production and structural change. Our study indicates that a substantial share of the agricultural production can be maintained at the national level. Milk and crop production may remain largely unaffected, while meat production decreases in the range of 10-20% compared to a reference run without membership. However, a reduction in total farm income by about 40% indicates that structural adjustments will follow EU accession. The results are discussed in view of the pattern of adjustments observed in Finland and Austria after EU accession in 1995. The need for the dairy industry to take advantage of the improved market access is stressed. Attention is also called to some strengths and limitations of the CAPRI model to analyse large-scale policy changes and to identify model improvements as an area of future research.     

我国粮食生产主要影响因子的灰色关联动态分析

根据1994～2004年我国粮食生产相关指标的统计数据,运用灰色关联理论对影响我国粮食生产的主要因素进行了关联动态分析,定量分析了粮食总产量与各因子的关系密切程度,指出了粮食单产、粮食播种面积、有效灌溉面积及受灾面积是影响中国粮食生产的最重要因素;提出了相关的发展对策。     

Agricultural Growth and Inter‐Sectoral Linkages in a Developing Economy

Does growth in the manufacturing sector of an economy spillover to agriculture, or do sectors share similar growth rates only when they share some common exogenous stimuli? The limited number of investigations of this issue, for cross‐sections of countries, have found some evidence in favour of spillovers, though the methodologies used cannot readily separate correlation from causation. Adapting the Feder (1982) model of sectoral externalities to a time‐series context, we examine how far agricultural output in Malaysia has been affected by inter‐sectoral spillovers. Our results suggest that expansion of manufacturing output, though associated with reduced agricultural output in the short‐run, is associated with agricultural expansion over the long‐run. Service output growth on the other hand seems to have been inimical to agricultural growth in both the short‐ and long‐runs, while causality testing supports the case for spillovers rather than “common causes”. Evidence on sectoral productivity is consistent with neoclassical arguments suggesting that the benefits of higher productivity in manufacturing tend to spill over to agriculture, encouraging productivity convergence.     

Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system

At present, China’s grain production pattern runs counter to the distribution patterns of farmland resources and water-heat conditions. It is urgently important to conduct research on the spatial matching of grain production and farmland resources. Based on the Potential Crop Rotation data, with regards to the situations of irrigation and rain feeding, this paper builds a measuring model of potential farmland, and separately measures the spatial matching index of grain yield with actual and potential farmland resources, thus revealing China’s grain production pattern. The results indicate that serious spatial mismatch exists between grain production and farmland resources in China. Take the potential crop rotation system into consideration, the spatial mismatch of grain yield and potential farmland resources has been aggravated by the grain production barycenter’s shift to the north China, with low Crop Rotation Index. The function-promoting regions of grain production in China are going through two evolution patterns of “northward and southward expansion” and “westward movement and northward expansion,” respectively. Inefficient use of farmland mainly occurs in the fragile ecological environments, such as the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China, the northwest area of Xinjiang and the southwest karst landform areas. The inefficient use of and the decreasing amount of available farmland have become the main causes of the decline in grain production. The problems facing Chinese agriculture caused by the spatial mismatch include the imbalance in regional structures, ecological risks, agricultural production risks, and the risk of food price. In order to cope with these problems, this paper provides some advices on protecting farmland acreage, expanding farmland potential, ensuring the safety of water resources, and extending the industrial grain chain. Our paper additionally proposes policy reforms and innovations designed to ensure the implementation of the above measures, so as to commonly defuse China’s food security crisis.     

农地流转对农业资本深化的实证研究

[目的]现阶段我国农业生产要素配置不合理、资源浪费现象严重、农业部门的整体效益较低。农地流转的过程既是农地资源重新配置与再利用,又是促进农业资本深化的重要方式。通过制定合理有效地农地流转制度来高效配置资本要素,从而实现农业的可持续发展。[方法]基于农地流转的规模效应和配置效应两个维度来分析农地流转对农业资本深化的影响,利用固定效应模型进行多元回归,分别求农地流转对两个核心指标的影响大小。[结果]农地流转对农业资本增密和滞后一期的农业资本配置效率具有正向促进关系。农地流转促进了农业现代化技术的推广与运用,加速了农业生产资料在单位面积土地上的运作效率,农地流转促进了农业资本的持续深化。[结论]加快农地合理规范流转是提高农业资本深化的重要途径。     

从科研财务助理角度谈50号文带来的变化

[目的]利用粮食生产与天气数据估算极端天气对中国粮食生产的影响,以期对我国的粮食安全有所贡献.[方法]选取中国31个省市2002~2012年面板数据,采用固定效应自相关异方差模型(FE+AR(1)+Hetero)计算高温干旱、洪涝、低温严寒等极端天气对中国粮食生产的影响.[结果](1)粮食播种面积、农村用电量、化肥施用量是农业增产的主要因素.粮食播种面积、农村用电量、化肥施用量增加1个百分点,粮食产量分别增加0.97、0.06和0.18个百分点, 2002~2012年三者对粮食增产的贡献分别为23.55%、31.21%和21.45%;(2)农作物成灾面积增加1%,粮食产出减少0.04%, 2002~2012年农作物成灾面积减少57.75%,对粮食产出增加的贡献为7.97%;(3)在控制农业机械总动力、化肥、农药、农村用电量、农作物成灾面积后,极端高温干旱天气对粮食生产有显著的负面影响,粮食损失比例为1.98%,洪涝、低温严寒影响不显著.[结论]2002~2012年间全国各省市极端高温干旱事件共计93起,频率约为0.27,造成粮食生产额外平均损失比例约为0.53%.     

广西壮族自治区耕地利用现状与粮食安全问题研究

粮食安全问题是国家政治稳定和经济发展的重要战略问题.该文通过深入农户调查和利用遥感监测技术,从广西耕地利用现状分析了广西粮食安全生产问题,认为广西粮食生产赶不上人口发展需要,耕地减少,粮食播种面积下降,农户产业结构调整对广西粮食安全生产已构成严重危险,粮食安全生产不容忽视,提出了加强粮食安全生产5点建议.     

历史时期中国绿洲的农业开发与生态环境变迁

绿洲农业是我国农业的一个重要组成部分。本文论述了历史时期我国绿洲农业开发的基本进程，分析了农业开发对生态环境的影响。认为政治、经济的稳定与强盛是绿洲开发的先决条件，战乱、不合理的开垦、利用以及对森林的滥伐和过渡放牧是造成绿洲沙漠化扩大的主要原因，人为因素和自然因素的叠加导致了绿洲生态环境的不断恶化。     

Regional suitability for agricultural intensification: a spatial analysis of the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania

Global food production will need to increase by 70–110% to meet the growing demand by 2050. Production per capita remains at 1960 levels in Africa while the agriculture sector accounts for 65% of full-time employment and 61% of rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Globally there is new focus on increasing agricultural investments in Africa. There is a need, however, for understanding regional factors that influence the outcome of agricultural intensification beyond the landscape scale and below the global scale. This paper provides a framework for considering socioeconomic and environmental factors in evaluating suitability for agricultural intensification at the regional scale. The method employs a spatially explicit multi-criteria evaluation based on freely available data that can be applied in any geography. The focus is on the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania which has an area greater than 28 million hectares. These results indicate that the area considered most suitable for agricultural investment is different when considering multiple criteria compared to considering only potential yield. This approach is important for government planners, funding partners, and development agencies who seek sustainable agricultural intensification in Africa and elsewhere.