The integration of energy and agricultural markets

This article addresses the evolving links between energy and agricultural markets. Prior to 2005, there was little correlation between energy and agricultural commodity prices. In 2006–2008, with the ethanol boom in the United States, there emerged a strong link between crude oil, gasoline, and corn prices. There was little link between ethanol and corn. However, in late 2008 and 2009, the markets changed as ethanol production came under severe economic pressure and 2 billion out of 12 billion gallons of capacity shut down. During this period ethanol became priced more on corn, as the breakeven corn price helped drive the ethanol market. This article explores the drivers in these markets as well as other major issues facing the corn ethanol industry in the United States such as the blend wall. The article concludes with a review of prospects of a future cellulosic biofuels industry.     

Spatial integration between Finnish and Dutch potato markets

This study estimated a conditional mean model for producer prices of fresh potatoes in Finland and for wholesale selling prices of fresh potatoes in the Netherlands. Unit roots were tested in the Finnish and Dutch price series. Then, an asymmetric error correction model with thresholds was estimated for potato prices between Finland and the Netherlands. Asymmetry was allowed both in short and long-run price transmission. The results suggest that the prices are cointegrated and the arbitrage system is functioning, but with a significant time lag between the Finnish and Dutch potato markets. The price response is also asymmetric in that the Finnish price moves towards a steady state equilibrium faster from above than from below the equilibrium.     

Food market liberalization: History and prospects

Abstract

Government intervention has been a feature of food markets in both industrialized and agrarian economies. However, the last 10 years have seen reforms aimed at reducing intervention; these have been a characteristic of ‘structural adjustment’. The process of reform has involved the replacement of administered by market‐determined prices and the abolition of trading parastatals or the removal of their monopoly. Despite an almost complete consensus that reforms are necessary and the absence of coherent local opposition, the pace and extent of reforms have varied. Moreover, views about liberalization tend to be polarized. Proponents argue that continued intervention is inefficient, unaffordable and distorting; antagonists suggest that unmodified markets lead to unacceptable inequalities, and expose producers and consumers to unacceptable risks. Moreover, weak fragmented markets do not constitute a sufficient base for sustained growth. This paper reviews the experience. It concludes that simple solutions of substituting public with private trading are not necessarily possible nor desirable, and argues that the nature of the debate may be misleading. The way forward may not lie in a choice between private market supremacy and conventional government intervention.     

Impacts of feed ingredient subsidy removal and concurrent trade liberalization in Tunisia

This article summarizes findings from a recent agricultural policy study examining the impacts of trade liberalization and removal of feed ingredient subsidies in Tunisia. A linear programming model was used to simulate private sector response to these policy changes. Increased feedgrain prices result from subsidy removal but effects are lessened if subsidy removal is coupled with trade liberalization. Induced long-term effects are improved efficiency in production of feedgrains, feedgrain substitutes, and livestock.     

Natural resource-collection work and children's schooling in Malawi

This paper presents results of research that investigates if long hours of work spent by children in fuel wood and water-collection activities, i. e., natural resource-collection work, influence the likelihood that a child aged 6–14 attends school. Potential endogeneity of resource-collection work hours is corrected for, using two-stage conditional maximum likelihood estimation. Data from the 1997–1998 Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS) conducted by the Malawi National Statistics Office (NSO) in conjunction with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) are used. The study finds that Malawian children are significantly involved in resource-collection work and their likelihood of attending school decreases with increases in hours allocated to this work. The study further shows that girls spend more hours on resource-collection work and are more likely to be attending school while burdened by this work. Consequently, girls may find it difficult to progress well in school. However, girls are not necessarily less likely to be attending school. Results further show that presence of more women in a household is associated with a lower burden of resource-collection work on children and a higher probability of children's school attendance. Finally, the research shows that children from the most environmentally degraded districts of central and southern Malawi are less likely to attend school and relatively fewer of them have progressed to secondary school compared to those-from districts in the north.     

The Economics of Soil Fertility Management in Malawi

We estimated a normalized translog yield-response model using African farm-household survey data to compare the yield of smallholder maize production under integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and chemical-based soil fertility management. Controlling for other factors, maize yield responses were higher under ISFM. Results suggest ISFM practices would significantly improve the profitability of smallholder maize production, especially under escalating fertilizer prices.     

水产品贸易自由化对中国渔业的影响

１水产品贸易自由化的进程研究（１）贸易自由化在本文中的定义范围。“贸易自由化”这一术语主要有两种含义。第一,亚太经济合作论坛提出的最终取消ＡＰＥＣ成员国之间的商品和服务的关税障碍这一贸易自由化计划。逐步实现ＡＰＥＣ各成员之间的贸易自由化,是多届ＡＰＥＣ论坛首脑会议的一个主题。ＡＰＥＣ成员约占世界ＧＤＰ总值的５５%,全球贸易总额的４０%。中国与ＡＰＥＣ其他成员的贸易占中国总出口、总进口的比重都超过２／３。第二,中国１９９６、１９９７年自主进行的关税削减。本文所指的贸易自由化主要指消除可贸易品的关税障碍,…     

Implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries

The developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the OECD countries. Participation along the lines of the Dunkel package, with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries, would yield gains of the order of US $20 billion. More comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains. While some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation, the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced.     

Gendered impacts of fertilizer subsidy removal programs in Malawi and Cameroon

Gladwin's^** main contention is that women provide most of the agricultural labor in sub-Saharan Africa and because much of this labor is oriented to food production for home consumption, the effects of structural adjustment programs on them and the children they work to feed are likely to be different than on men who produce crops for commercial and export production. Her specific hypothesis for Malawi is that the removal of the fertilizer subsidy affects women farmers more than men farmers because it reduces fertilizer use on local maize. As part of the structural adjustment program, a major purpose of removing the fertilizer subsidy is to reallocate resources from food production for domestic consumption to cash crop production for export. In Gladwin's analysis, men farmers produce hybrid maize and tobacco for export and women produce the subsistence food crop, local maize. Gladwin's main contention is probably correct. For the Malawi case, the presentation does not support the hypothesis because two of the major underlying assumptions are inappropriate and the evidence provided is inconclusive. This comment proceeds by discussing the two assumptions and corresponding evidence. The purpose of this comment is not to contradict the hypothesis, but to clarify the Malawi situation and to suggest that a different analytical approach is needed in that context.     

Gendered impacts of fertilizer subsidy removal programs in Malawi and Cameroon

Since the early 1980s, development experts and donor agencies have agreed on the importance of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) aimed at ‘getting prices right‘. Adoption of reforms were made preconditions for new loans or grants in many sub-Saharan African countries. In both Malawi and Cameroon, one such required reform was government's eliminating fertilizer subsidies to the small farm sector, previously used to increase the profitability of intensive agriculture while keeping food prices artificially low. The aim of this paper is to review fertilizer subsidy removal programs for their impact on farmers, who in sub-Saharan Africa are women. In theory, SAP programs should benefit women producers, because much emphasis is placed on renewing agricultural production and aligning farmgate prices with world prices. But in practice, will they benefit? Are SAPs gender-neutral and affect men and women equally, or merely gender-blind?     

Climate change impacts on rain-fed and irrigated rice yield in Malawi

There is extensive scientific evidence on climate impacts and adaptation in rice (Oryza sativa L.), but the majority relates to production in South Asia and China. Only a handful of studies have been conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa and none in Malawi. In this paper, the climate impacts on rain-fed and irrigated rice yield have been assessed by combining the downscaled outputs from an ensemble of general circulation models (GCM) (HADCM3, INCM3 and IPCM4) with data from the LARS-WG weather generator to drive the CERES-Rice crop model. This was calibrated and validated using 10 years (2001–2010) field data from three rice schemes to simulate the baseline (1961–1990) yield (t?ha^?1) and then model future yield changes for selected (B1 and A2) emissions’ scenarios for the 2050s. Although relatively small increases in average yield were projected (+8% and +5% for rain-fed and irrigated rice, respectively), there was large uncertainty (?10% to +20% yield change) when considering different GCMs and emission scenario. Farmer responses to cope with the projected impacts include both autonomous and planned adaptation strategies, such as modifying planting dates to maximize crop growth calendars and available soil moisture, increased use of on-farm water conservation measures and land levelling to improve water efficiency in rice schemes dependent on surface irrigation.     

Pricing-to-market in NSW rice export markets

The Ricegrowers' Cooperative Limited is a single-desk seller of NSW Japonica rice on the export market. Confidential monthly price data supplied by the Cooperative were used to examine 'pricing-to-market' in four of its major export markets. The hypothesis of a competitive market was rejected. The Cooperative has been able to vary mark-ups over different markets and with respect to the importer's currency in each market. The exchange rate results in particular suggest that the Cooperative has been able to exercise market power to obtain price premiums.     

Information,efficiency, and welfare in agricultural markets

Information and communications technologies (ICTs) have spread rapidly in the developing world. There has been considerable interest in the potential role ICTs, particularly mobile phones, have begun to play in the marketing of agricultural outputs in these countries. In this article, we discuss the potential impacts ICTs may have on welfare, both in terms of potential efficiency gains (via improved arbitrage), and welfare transfers among agents in the supply chain (via reduced informational asymmetries and market power). We also review the recent empirical evidence for such effects.