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1.
The impacts of the Uruguay Round policy provisions on the world sugar market show that these policies will stabilize the world sugar price at slightly higher levels than in the baseline. Global sugar consumption will increase as a result of the income growth caused by the Uruguay Round. Economic resources will be allocated more efficiently among the sugar industries of the various countries. However, the impacts on the sugar industries in countries with strong producer supports will be rather small because the negotiation process of the Uruguay Round has accommodated the changes in sugar policies already implemented by individual countries in the past few years. Low-cost sugar producing countries will benefit from the higher world sugar price, and consumers in countries with protected markets will benefit from lower domestic prices.  相似文献   

2.
Recent research highlights the role that multinational trading companies may play in impeding price transmission. In markets characterised by imperfect competition, an estimate of the partial elasticity of demand may be of limited practical value if no account is taken of the reaction of competitors. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for market structure to affect price transmission and trade elasticities, and challenge the presumption that only government intervention can impact upon price transmission, with examples supporting why theory would suggest otherwise.  相似文献   

3.
The Armington procedure (AP) has become increasingly popular in agricultural trade analyses. However, some arguments have arisen concerning the relevance of using the procedure for such analyses. This study examines the assumptions commonly made when using the Armington procedure and suggests modifications for agricultural trade analyses. Results from models utilizing rice-trade data suggest that the assumptions of the single constant elasticity, in particular, may not be appropriate for analyzing agricultural trade. These results also suggest that, with proper modifications, the AP can be applied to agricultural trade. Further, results of a modified Armington procedure indicate that trade in rice exports is highly competitive and that changes in market shares of individual exporters are not independent of changes in budget expenditure allocated to imports.  相似文献   

4.
Changes in country shares of global rice exports from 1997 to 2008 are analyzed using an econometric, shift‐share analytical framework. This framework estimates growth rates and disaggregates these rates of change into geographical structure effects and performance effects. The performance effect is further decomposed into two subeffects accounting for adaptation to changes in the geographical structure of the marketplace and a competitiveness effect. A restricted, weighted, two‐way fixed effects model is specified for estimating the geographical structure and performance effects. Results indicate a growing concentration among a few exporting countries in the global rice market, and the competitiveness effect is often significant. Government policies affecting rice trade and the competitiveness of trading partners are important factors for the shifts in rice trade patterns. In particular, Vietnam is an emerging, major player in global rice trade in competition with Thailand.  相似文献   

5.
Pulpwood from Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) traded domestically in Norway, imported to Norway, or exported from Norway is investigated with respect to commodity homogeneity and market integration. The prices imply that pulpwood from Norway spruce is a homogenous commodity, and the three price series are analyzed with respect to market integration. Using the cointegration estimator two cointegrating vectors are found within the system, and the weak Law of One Price can be imposed on domestic- and import prices. Imports are weakly exogenous to the two other variables, indicating that international pulpwood prices leads the domestic market.  相似文献   

6.
This paper explores possibilities and opportunities of expansion of horticultural exports from developing countries through an investigation on a rapidly growing market, Japan, as an example among major promising markets. In this paper six horticultural commodities are selected to analyze, emphasizing on exports from developing countries. Observations on Japan's horticultural imports make us presume that consumers differentiate products by place of production. Therefore, import behavior is considered in a two-stage budgeting procedure. The second-stage demands for imports from different sources are specified in an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and estimated statistically as well as the first-stage import demand equations. The estimated second-stage AIDS equations show that the magnitude of own-price coefficients varies with the source of imports and so does that of expenditure coefficients. Therefore, the characteristics of import demand on a commodity basis, which are captured by the estimates of the first-stage import demand equations, are not equally transmitted to the demand for imports by source in each commodity. The estimated coefficients of the first-stage import demand and the second-stage AIDS equations were combined to obtain the total effects of price and income changes on imports by source. The calculated own-price elasticities are greater than one in absolute value in ten of the 15 cases and so are the calculated income elasticities in twelve cases. The large elasticities promise suppliers that they benefit from Japan's income growth and that they increase their earnings if they can reduce the price by lowering their costs. However, factors in non-price competition also play import roles in the import growth. In this paper, the importance of sales promotions by exporters and preshipment inspections was indicated in the cases of mangoes and cut flowers. Other factors such as market structure and public infrastructure for post-harvest activities were also discussed.  相似文献   

7.
A U.S. import demand model for palm oil empirically addresses the objectives of ascertaining whether significant shifts in U.S. import patterns for palm oil followed an American Soybean Association negative informational campaign against "fatty" tropical oils and whether factors such as exchange rates significantly affected the decline of U.S. palm oil imports after the campaign. Evidence suggests that structural change in U.S. import demand for palm oil followed commencement of the campaign, including significant changes in the own- and cross-price responsiveness of palm oil. Results also indicate that exchange rates did not contribute to declining U.S. palm oil imports.  相似文献   

8.
两个国家之间的贸易是一个博弈,一般来说纳什均衡点将在一定区间范围内移动,根据双方的实力通过谈判最终达到纳什均衡,这是一个量变的过程。但是一旦商品出口量突破临界点时,就超过了进口国可以容忍的限度,形势发生了质的变化。进口国政府会认为进口产品冲击了本国市场,从而决定进行战略性贸易保护,根据具体情况或采取反倾销措施、特别保障措施或运用绿色壁垒来限制进口。所以有必要研究可能触发贸易保护的临界点。在贸易实务中触发进口国采取保护措施有二个敏感因素:一是价格触发,二是数量触发,在数量触发中又分为进口增幅过大造成的数量触发和进口总量过大造成的数量触发。本文以中日菠菜贸易为例进行了博弈实证分析,触发日本对菠菜进行贸易保护的经济根源是由于日本菠菜生产者、日本农协及其他流通组织受到的损失大于日本蔬菜进口商和消费者的得益,证实日本就是运用绿色壁垒对中国菠菜进行了限制,本文对避免触发贸易保护与化解贸易纠纷提出了一系列战略对策。  相似文献   

9.
Quality standards play an increasingly important role in international agri-food trade, and their functioning as nontariff barriers to trade is widely discussed. We argue that food quality standards imposed by importing countries are more than just border measures and can have profound effects on the market structure of the exporting industry, thereby significantly influencing the supply response. We develop a stylized oligopoly model that accounts for compliance costs (fixed and variable) and investigate alternative policy options to explore different mechanisms an importing county may use to enhance the quality of its imports. The model explicitly recognizes the coexistence of complying and noncomplying firms, which is a situation often found in low-income countries where a small modern export-oriented segment invests in meeting foreign quality standards. We use the adjustment of the Polish meat sector to the tight EU food quality standards as an empirical example. The simulations show that a subsidy scheme can promote compliance with standards and can contribute to an upgrade of the industry in the exporting country, but its marginal effectiveness is diminishing.  相似文献   

10.
<正>今年我国的夏季粮油生产虽然遭遇了历史罕见的西南特大干旱和北方持续低温等自然灾害,但是经过全国上下通力协作,广大农民顽强抗灾,仍然夺得了较好收成,总产量达到12310万吨,仅比上年减少0.3%。目前,夏粮收购工作已经全面展开,全国各级粮食部门、各类粮油收购主体正在认真落实国家  相似文献   

11.
This article uses an equilibrium displacement model (EDM) to assess the impact of a change in trade policy in the Korean infant formula market that is assumed to be oligopolistic. Domestic oligopolists compete in a market for a homogenous good with importing firms who enjoy the same level of market power as the domestic producers. Within an EDM framework, we investigate how the market adjusts to a new equilibrium in response to an external policy shock that improves access to foreign goods. Our empirical work consists of two steps. We first econometrically estimate the market demand elasticity and market power parameter. Then, using these estimates, we simulate our EDM model to assess the distributional effects of tariff cuts and other changes in marginal cost. Simulation results show that, with a lower market price and increased consumption, the change in consumer surplus resulting from tariff reduction is unambiguously positive, but that the change in social welfare can be in either direction, depending on who receives market rents associated with imports. When importing firms are domestic, the domestic welfare change is definitely positive. However, in the case of foreign importing firms, the direction of the welfare change crucially depends on the demand elasticity.  相似文献   

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Trade creation in agricultural products is defined as a statistically significant positive break in the trend function of the growth in exports and imports between member countries. The present study attempts to determine the time of any break in the trend of real exports and imports between the Canada–USA Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) member countries for the years 1980:I through 1999:II, and document the scale of the phenomenon. The present study finds trade creation only occurs in USA agricultural exports to Canada because of CUSTA. The results confirm the theory that the regionalism of NAFTA did not lead to regionalisation or an increasing share of intraregional international trade.  相似文献   

15.
In this paper, the price dynamics of a rice market are examined using dynamic programming techniques. The model is parameterised to the case of Bangladesh and thus represents the situation of a very poor country which has characteristically high price elasticity (due to income effects) and high storage and interest costs. The incentives for private sector storage and its impact on price stability are examined. Various options for public intervention in the storage sector are also explored, including price ceiling schemes and subsidisation of storage costs. Results show that interventions that remove private disincentives (such as storage subsidies) are much cheaper than direct intervention by government, but the impact on the probability distribution of prices is quite different. The effect of trade on the probability distribution of prices is also examined.  相似文献   

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17.
World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These “shocks” affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment, and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this article, we present a framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. We quantify transmission of the shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Then we use an applied general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of the price changes. A recursive mapping to a nationally representative household living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral labor market adjustments emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households.  相似文献   

18.
This research simulates and evaluates present and future trends in international poultry trade utilizing the Armington framework which allows traded goods to be differentiated by their country of origin. Parameters in the Armington model were estimated, and the trade distorting impacts of tariffs and export subsidies on the international poultry market were simulated. Results illustrate the potential impacts of increased trade protection on future market potential oversees. They also demonstrate the importance of a meaningful agreement on agricultural trade in the Uruguay Round of the GATT.  相似文献   

19.
A model is developed to characterize the vertically linked and concentrated nature of developed‐country food markets. This model is then parameterized and used to simulate the effects of varying food market structures on the benefits to developing‐country exporters of agricultural commodities from trade liberalization by developed countries. Results demonstrate that even relatively modest departures from perfect competition can cause much of the benefits from trade liberalization to flow to marketing firms instead of producers in the developing country. The distributional effects under downstream market power differ significantly from the perfectly competitive case and may result, somewhat paradoxically, in developing countries receiving a lower share of the total value added within the food chain as trade reform occurs.  相似文献   

20.
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