吉林省农产品进出口对农业经济增长的效应———基于出口扩展型生产函数的实证研究

吉林省是一个农业大省,农产品进出口在整个对外贸易中占有举足轻重的地位,进出口贸易与经济增长之间的相互关系历来也是学术研究的重点。文章首先分析吉林省农产品贸易的发展状况与特点,研究了吉林省农产品贸易对农业经济的贡献率与拉动率;然后以柯布道格拉斯生产函数为基础,构建出口扩展型生产函数模型,对吉林省农产品进出口与农业经济增长,农业劳动投入、资本投入与农业经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明吉林省农产品进出口、农业固定资本投入对农业经济增长均具有正向的促进作用,农业就业人数的变化对农业经济增长的作用不显著。其中吉林省农产品出口额每增加1%,会促进农业地区生产总值增加0.198%,进口每增加1%,促进农业经济增长0.205%,农产品进出口总额每增加1%,农业地区生产总值增加0.227%。因此,吉林省要努力发展外向型农业,提高优势农产品在国际市场上的份额;同时增加农业资本投入,优化投资结构。     

中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动原因分析

基于联合国贸易数据库林产品数据,应用恒定市场份额模型,探究1998—2018年造成中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动现象的影响因素。结果表明:1998—2018年,中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易集中于资源密集型和需求增长较快的产品,且贸易波动呈现出明显的阶段性;中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品总额波动现象受产品结构、市场规模、竞争力等多种因素影响,其中中国进口结构和国内市场需求是贸易波动的主要因素;此外,中俄林产品贸易还受到世界经济环境的影响。因此,中国应寻找其他进口渠道,减少对俄罗斯供给的依赖,保障中国木质林产品产业安全,密切关注两国经济政策变化,及时调整进口贸易策略,促进中俄木质林产品贸易的健康稳定发展。     

特惠贸易协定对果品进出口贸易的影响——基于关税削减的实证分析

构造并运用放松约束的变量系数PCS引力模型,从关税削减角度,分析双边自由贸易区建设对我国水果和坚果产品进出口贸易的影响。研究发现:双边贸易自由化给果品产业发展带来的机遇与挑战并存,关税削减对中国果品进口贸易的影响大于对出口的影响;正在考虑建设的自由贸区一旦建成并在关税上做出较大让步,会有力地促进中国的果品进出口贸易;中国与特惠贸易协定签约国之间的果品贸易中,贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应并存,非关税的贸易便利化措施是中国与部分签约国果品贸易发展的主要推动力。     

Domestic Support and Border Measures for Processed Horticultural Products

In horticultural markets, trade barriers often apply to the processed products whereas domestic support applies to farm-produced raw commodities. Here we assess the effects of such trade barriers and domestic support by simulating the effects of policy reform on global processing tomato markets, which are faced with modest processed product tariffs and high domestic support in the European Union (EU). Both protection and EU subsidy drive down world welfare, but we find that reducing import tariffs for tomato products would yield greater effects on markets and larger welfare impacts outside Europe than would reductions in EU domestic support.     

Trends in global virtual land trade in relation to agricultural products

Trade volume of agricultural products can be used to quantify the virtual land transfers between countries. This study assessed the virtual land trade (VLT) associated with the global trade of agricultural products using specific crop yield of exporting countries and gave insights in characteristics of different products and different countries. In addition, the features of trade connections were also displayed by network analysis. The results showed that the total virtual land within global agricultural trade increased from 128 million hectare (ha) in 1986 to 350 million ha in 2016, the average annual growth rate was 5.73 %. Increases in trade of oil crops contributed the largest share to this. The proportion of exported land area in total harvested land area increased for almost all categories of agricultural products. Countries engaged in global agricultural trade could be divided into three groups, net exporters, net importers and countries with balanced VLT. The net importers could be further divided into the countries with absolutely scarce land resources and the countries with relative scarce resources. All net virtual land exporters are the countries with more land resources per capita, such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Income growth and changes in diet structure are main factors driving increases in VLT. The VLT network became more complex over the study period, with the number of import and export nodes increasing continuously, and the cumulative distributions of export and import node strength following power law distributions. The major links and players within national, geographic, and economic groups also changed significantly over the study period. VLT has a deep impact on society, economy and environment, appropriate policies should be taken to make these interlinkages more sustainable for both importers and exporters.     

中国水产品出口贸易流量与潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究

中国作为世界上最大的水产品生产国,近30年水产品出口一直保持增长,在全球水产品市场中的比重大幅度增加,同时面临着与其他国家同业间的竞争。本文运用拓展的引力模型对1999年～2007年中国水产品出口相关的面板数据进行了实证检验,并对主要出口市场水产品贸易潜力进行了测算与分析。研究表明,引力模型只能对中国水产品出口贸易流量和潜力起到部分的解释作用,虽然中国水产品出口对欧美日等市场呈现出所谓的“过度贸易”,对泰国、印度尼西亚等表现为“贸易不足”,但这一总体趋势不会有太大改变。另外,进出口市场之间的产品竞争程度、进口市场的消费习惯也是进出口贸易可能的影响因素。     

新时期我国林产品对外贸易研究分析

本文对我国林产品对外贸易现状进行分析,研究发现我国林产品进出口市场高度集中,进1：3多为环境敏感的初级林产品,出口则以低附加值的劳动密集型林产品为主。我国林业企业不但承受着环境保护的压力,也承担着贸易摩擦带来的风险。所遇困境已经制约了新时期我国林产品对外贸易的发展,因此,必须改变贸易方式,加强企业综合实力,才能走出困境。     

Trade effects of geographical indication policy: The EU case

Using a new detailed dataset on country-product information on European Union (EU) Geographical Indications (GIs), we study the impact of this food quality policy on trade margins over the 1996–2014 period. We consider the effect of GIs on both intra- and extra-EU trade margins (extensive and intensive), as well as on export (and import) unit values. Our main results show that GIs affect trade flows differently depending on whether GIs are produced by the exporter or importer country. The presence of GIs in the exporter country systematically exerts a positive trade effect on both the extensive and intensive trade margin. When registered only in the importer country, GIs seem to act weakly as a trade-reducing measure, at least at the intensive trade margin. In addition, GIs positively affect export prices, consistent with the idea that GI products are perceived by consumers as higher quality goods. Importantly, extra-EU trade margins react similarly to those on intra-EU trade. These results have clear and interesting implications concerning the EU strategy of promoting the protection of GIs worldwide.     

世界水产品贸易变动分析

论文利用FAO渔业统计数据及COMTRADE数据并经整理,分析了1996～2010年世界水产品贸易,结果表明：世界水产品的进口市场主要在发达国家,而出口市场则为广大的发展中国家;生鲜水产品仍然占据着重要地位,水产深加工品的贸易地位不断上升,而初加工品的地位不断下滑;世界水产品进口市场集中度在不断下降;日本在世界水产品进口中的比重在不断下降,欧盟则不断上升,中国在世界水产品出口市场中的地位在不断上升,但出口的增速则在下降。最后．提出促进中国水产品出口的政策建议。     

IMPACTS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICES

The emergence of the EC as a major exporter of cereals in the 1980s and the escalation of international agricultural trade confrontations emphasize the importance of understanding the effects of EC policy actions. Several important features of the EC wheat market are incorporated in an analytical and empirical model including imperfect substitutability in demand between imports and domestic supplies, the simultaneous import and export of wheat by the EC, the distinct impact of threshold versus intervention policy prices, MCAs, and the imperfect transmission between market and intervention prices. Results indicate that EC policies have a smaller impact on world price than found in previous studies.     

碳关税的征收对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应分析

发达国家以保护全球环境为名提出了有关碳关税的政策,但是结合碳关税的相关政策内容来看,其动机是为了抑制发展中国家高能耗产品的出口,以便保证自身高能耗产品在国际的地位。我国身为纸制品出口贸易大国,一旦实行碳关税政策,将会对经济发展带来严重影响,基于此本文分析碳关税对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应具有十分重要的意义。     

How would global trade liberalization affect rural and regional incomes in Australia?

Agricultural protection in rich countries, which had depressed Australian farm incomes via its impact on Australia’s terms of trade, has diminished over the past two decades. So too has agricultural export taxation in poor countries, which has had the opposite impact on those terms of trade. Meanwhile, however, import protection for developing country farmers has been steadily growing. To what extent are Australian farmers and rural regions still adversely affected by farm and non‐farm price‐ and trade‐distortive policies abroad? This paper draws on new estimates of the current extent of those domestic and foreign distortions: first, to model their net impact on Australia’s terms of trade (using the World Bank’s Linkage model of the global economy); and second, to model the effects of that terms of trade impact on output and real incomes in rural versus urban and other regions and households within Australia as of 2004 (using Monash’s multi‐regional TERM model of the Australian economy).     

一次性木筷相关税收政策的效应分析

阐述了2004年以来中国出台的一系列有关一次性木筷的税收政策。对一次性木筷取消出口退税的政策效应分析结果表明:取消出口退税对一次性木筷出口的限制作用明显,有利于保护森林资源,节约财政收入,促进行业的转型升级和对外直接投资,但也存在影响林区就业和林区经济的负面作用。2006年新税收政策的效应基本与取消出口退税政策效应类似,但强化了出口限制效应、替代效应,改变了贸易方式和流向。     

中俄木质林产品贸易的现状、新态势及对策

首先,分析了2000-2012年中国对俄罗斯木质林产品进口贸易和出口贸易的变动情况;其次,从俄罗斯调整林业产业政策、提高原木出口关税、实施新森林法、加入WTO、扩大森林认证面积等方面分析中俄木质林产品贸易面临的挑战和机遇;最后,提出加强中俄政府合作、拓展木材来源区域、鼓励森林资源合作开发、建立木材合法性联合认定体系的对策建议。     

Trade Reform and the Corn Market: Prospects for the World Trade Organization Negotiations on Agriculture

Government support and trade restrictions on agricultural commodities are among the most globally distorting protectionist policies. This is especially true with regards to corn. Vast production subsidies and import barriers, primarily within the European Union and China, have artificially inflated the global supply of this commodity, while restricting the available consumer markets. This impact is augmented by the preferential treatment granted in these countries to the production and importation of the best available substitute to corn, soybeans. Using an econometric model with commodity data over the past 20 years, this article predicts the likely impact of potential World Trade Organization (WTO) trade pacts on these corn trade distortions. Despite the WTO setback in Seattle, the vast global benefits resulting from agricultural trade liberalization in corn alone validate a continued push towards freer trade.     

矿产品进出口政策研究：关税调整的基石

作者根据对21世纪初矿产资源供需形势的分析,以及近10多年来矿产品进出口的研究,提出了当前及今后一个时期内我国矿产品进出口应当遵循的基本原则和政策取向.这是新形势下矿产品关税调整的基石.据此,进一步提出了今后5年中矿产品进出口关税调整的一系列政策和措施建议.     

中国木材产品贸易及其对林业的影响

以木材产品贸易对林业的影响为核心,对木材产品的进口和出口情况进行详细的统计分析,并运用弹性理论分析林业产值对木材产品进口和出口的敏感度,以此来初步证明木材产品贸易对林业的影响。研究表明,原木、锯材、刨花板、木家具、纸和纸制品的进口敏感度均高于木材总产品的进口敏感度1.382,尤其以刨花板和木家具的敏感度最大,为136.018,说明这些产品的进口额变化对林业产值变化的影响非常显著,进口额增加1%,将使林业产值成倍地增长。     

Welfare impacts of import controls on Botswana's horticulture

Botswana has, for the past two decades, used import controls (permits) to regulate horticultural imports, and thereby promote economic diversification through import substitution. This article estimates import demand equations to capture the impact of import controls on horticultural imports (oranges, potatoes, and onions) into Botswana, using data for 1974 to 2001. Parameter estimates are used to compute nominal protection rates (NPRs) and welfare effects. Model‐generated NPRs are estimated at 191%, 75%, and 109% for oranges, potatoes, and onions, respectively. Imports of oranges, potatoes, and onions declined by 32%, 29%, and 35%, respectively, due to the implementation of import controls. Over time consumer losses and quota rents rose while producer gains declined. Net social losses also increased, implying that import controls became increasingly burdensome. It is argued that import controls have not been very effective in promoting import substitution. The study is important for the trade liberalization debate in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), where import permits and other nontariff barriers are pervasive, have proliferated, and are a major hindrance to intraregional trade.     

中国纸产品贸易的碳减排效应研究

以2012年中国纸产品进出口贸易的数据分离两种效应,运用材积源生物量方程与净初级生产力(NPP)法核算造纸原料贸易的碳减排效应,运用IPCC清单指南法核算纸及纸制品贸易的碳排放效应。研究结果表明:中国纸产品贸易的鲜明特点导致其对国内碳排放具有双重效应,一方面造纸原料的大量进口使中国减少对国内林木的砍伐,具有碳减排效应;另一方面纸及纸制品的净出口又增加了国内的碳排放,具有碳排放效应。中国造纸原料贸易的碳减排效应明显,达1 902.11万t,相当于总蓄积量为1.805 709亿m3林木的年均固碳量;而纸和纸制品贸易的碳排放效应并不显著,只有51.36万t;但总体而言,中国纸产品贸易具有显著的碳减排效应。     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。