财政支出、居民消费与经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的分析

在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中引入财政支出冲击和居民消费习惯,将财政支出分为生产性支出和消费性支出,分别纳入生产函数和总消费函数,通过DSGE模型模拟了财政支出对居民消费、产出、就业、投资等经济变量的动态影响。模拟结果显示财政支出增加对居民消费产生了挤出效应,而对产出、就业等经济变量产生挤入效应。考虑消费习惯后,经济变量对外生冲击的响应呈驼峰状,并且影响程度加大。因此,合理划分政府支出的类型并恰当评估居民的消费习惯对把握财政政策的操作力度甚为重要。     

政府支出与经济波动——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

政府支出能否起到稳定经济增长的作用是一个值得研究的重要问题。使用1987-2013年30个省市自治区的面板数据,文章考察了政府支出对我国经济波动的影响。在考虑政府支出规模的内生性后,2SLS估计结果发现政府支出对经济波动的影响具有两面性。一方面政府支出规模主要发挥了财政自动稳定器作用,因而减少了经济波动;另一方面,政府支出变动对总量产出冲击较大,从而增加了经济波动。进一步控制了贸易开放、通货膨胀、货币政策冲击、金融发展和产业结构等因素,估计结果表现出较好的稳健性。研究结论意味着,在保持经济稳定增长方面,需要权衡政府支出规模与政府支出变动对经济波动的影响。     

财政农业支出结构对农业经济的增长效应

文章根据VAR模型和VCE模型,选取我国1978-2005年的农业产出和财政农业支出为样本数据,从三个层面分析了财政农业支出及其结构与农业经济增长之间关系.首先分析了财政农业支出总水平对农业经济的影响.其次,分析了财政农业支出的主要项目对农业经济的增长效应.最后,根据财政农业支出的不同用途,分析了财政生产性和消费性支出对农业经济的增长效应.     

企业生存状况与中国经济波动--基于动态新凯恩斯主义的视角

基于一个包含企业进入和退出的双重名义刚性NKMP－DSGE模型,考察了中国经济波动问题。研究发现,与已有研究相比,外生冲击可以通过影响企业进入和退出进而影响宏观经济。总需求冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数显著支持了我国政府在金融危机期间采用非常规货币政策刺激经济的做法;进入成本冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,降低融资难度和融资成本,提高政府公共服务效率,将有利于新企业的建立和经济增长。这一结论显著支持了央行定向降准的做法。     

政府支出相机抉择效应的实证分析

通过对相关理论和数据分析,构造了非结构向量自回归模型,在这一基础上运用脉冲响应技术从非结构自回归模型中分离出诱导残差,利用这些残差建立了关于我国公共支出（包括财政支出和非税支出两部分）实证研究的结构向量自回归模型,对公共支出在经济增长中的相机抉择效应进行了研究。得到如下实证结果：政府收入对经济增长呈现负效应,政府支出对经济增长呈现正效应。公共支出相机抉择的政策效应是一种反周期调节的短期性措施,并且在调控时间上具有明显的滞后性。     

中国经济波动来源于供给还是需求——基于新凯恩斯模型的研究

本文在新凯恩斯模型的研究框架下,引入了四个额外的冲击——偏好冲击、加成冲击、政府支出冲击和利率冲击,来研究导致我国产出、通胀等宏观经济变量波动的来源。模拟结果显示,来自供给方的冲击对我国经济波动具有重要作用。其中,对通胀影响最大的是加成冲击。除利率冲击外,技术冲击对产出增长率的影响是最大的。因此,在我国以总需求管理为导向的调控措施在熨平经济周期波动方面的效果将是有限的,适时强调供给管理是有其必要性的。     

地方财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究——以深圳市为例

本文着重分析了改革开放后深圳市政府财政支出与经济增长的关系,发现经济增长促进了政府财政支出规模的扩张。根据各项支出对经济增长的影响,本文划分了生产性支出和非生产性支出两大类别,并利用VAR模型和脉冲响应检验了生产性财政支出冲击与非生产性财政支出冲击对经济增长的影响。通过了解这种影响模式,将为判断2010年深圳市大运会后经济增长趋向提供一种思路。     

财政分权视角下地方政府环保支出效率分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章首先基于2007-2014年30个省份环保治理的投入与产出数据,运用DEA-Malmquist模型测算各省环保支出效率,发现环保支出效率普遍不高且地区间存在很大差异。在得到环保支出效率的基础上,以财政分权为核心解释变量,以人均GDP为门槛变量,建立面板门槛模型重点分析财政分权因地区经济发展水平不同对环保支出效率的不同影响。实证发现,财政分权对提升环保支出效率具有正向作用;财政分权对环保支出效率的影响随地区经济发展水平的提升越来越大。基于上述结论,提出发展落后地区经济、激励地方政府行为、改革财税体制和提升民众参与度等措施来提升环保支出效率。     

浅谈政府支出对城镇居民消费影响

纵观自改革开放以来的发展历程,我国的经济运行一直保持着较高的增长速度,但是,其中居民消费对经济增长所起到的拉动作用却表现地较为有限. 在长期内,政府总体支出对全国及城乡不同利益群体消费都具有挤出效应,目对于城镇居民消费支出的挤出效应大于农村居民.政府的投资性支出和消费性支出对全国和城镇居民的消费支出都具有挤出效应,但是对农村居民而言,投资性支出表现为正向影响;在短期内,政府投资性支出对全国和城乡居民消费都具有挤出效应,消费性支出对于全国和城镇居民消费都有挤入效应,但是对于农村居民却是挤出效应.     

政府支出与私人消费关系的实证检验:基于财政分权的视角

本文运用1995-2009年间中国省际面板数据对政府支出与私人消费的关系及作用机制进行实证检验。我们认为:第一、政府支出通过收入效应和替代效应影响私人消费,政府支出与私人消费呈倒"U"型关系。第二、财政分权导致政府支出结构扭曲,并且生产性支出以吸引FDI为目的,替代效应以及FDI对国内投资的挤出效应和锁定效应导致生产性支出挤出私人消费。     

Government spending and the distribution of economic growth

In the United States, total government spending, and especially government social spending, has increased greatly over the last 50 years. What effect this has had on economic growth is a subject of intense debate among politicians, policymakers, and economists. However, there has been less attention paid to the distributional effects of government spending even though economic inequality has grown greatly over the last generation and much social spending is at least indirectly intended to reduce inequality. The effects of government social spending in the United States on growth in family income at deciles of the income distribution were estimated. The results suggested that social spending but not non‐social spending was likely to increase growth in family income per capita measured over 10‐year intervals. The largest effects of social spending were for deciles below the median income. At no point in the distribution does social spending have a negative effect.     

What Do OECD Countries Cut First When Faced with Fiscal Adjustments?

Following the present scale of fiscal imbalances in developed countries, significant fiscal consolidation will be inevitable in the coming years. Fiscal discipline will require cuts in government expenditure, leading to trade‐offs between different components of government expenditure. In this article, we explore the relationship between components of government expenditure and government size during the period 1970‐2007 for a sample of 25 developed countries to shed light on how fiscal discipline might influence public spending composition in the coming years. Using the Pooled Mean Group estimation we find that fiscal adjustments protect functions that have both a social and productive character, such as education and health spending. In addition, the most productive spending, that related to transport and communications, is also isolated from budgetary cuts. This result shows evidence of governments reacting to the voter's increasing realization that reducing productive expenditures harms long‐term economic growth by striking a balance between utility and economic‐growth‐enhancing expenditure.     

Fiscal Episodes and Market Power

We assess the effect of fiscal episodes, as determined via alternative approaches, on GDP and on markups in a panel of 14 OECD countries. Our results with narrative action-based data show counter-cyclicality since negative fiscal shocks increase markups. Additional empirical exercises reveal that spending-based consolidation programs have a more counter-cyclical effect on the behaviour of markups over the short and medium term than tax-based ones. Moreover, in times of economic contraction the degree of counter-cyclicality of negative (positive) government spending (tax) shocks is larger than during economic expansions.     

EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.     

How can quality regional spending reduce poverty and improve human development index?

There is only a small amount of literature that discusses government spending and development performance, especially poverty and the human development index (HDI). Most of them discuss through income. Although some discuss government spending, few discuss their quality. This paper attempts to examine and discuss the quality of government spending and then to link its effects to poverty and HDI rates for underdeveloped areas in Indonesia in Java. The method used in this study is to use the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) with the help of SmartPLS software. The results of this study indicate that the quality of government spending is supported by the constructs of PRIORITY, ALLOCATION, TIME, ACCOUNTABILITY, and EFFECTIVENESS. This means that government spending can be said to be of quality when viewed from the five constructs. The results of this study also concluded that quality government spending can reduce poverty levels and the human development index (HDI).     

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate

We study the empirical effects of fiscal policy in Denmark since the adoption of a fixed exchange rate policy in 1982. Denmark’s fixed exchange rate implies that the nominal interest rate remains fixed after a fiscal expansion, facilitating a substantial impact of the fiscal stimulus on the real economy. On the other hand, the large degree of openness of the Danish economy means that a sizeable share of the fiscal stimulus will be directed towards imported goods. Our results suggest that the ‘monetary accomodation channel’ dominates the ‘leakage effect’ in the short run. We demonstrate that fiscal stimulus has a rather large impact on economic activity in the very short run, with a government spending multiplier of 1.1 on impact in our preferred specification. We also find that the effects of fiscal stimulus are rather short-lived in Denmark, with the effect on output becoming insignificant after around two years. The fiscal multiplier is above 1 only in the first quarter, and drops to 0.6 one year after the shock. We also find that in the short run, the government spending multiplier is larger than the tax multiplier. Finally, we demonstrate that exogenous shocks to government spending account for less than 10 % of the movements in output over the business cycle in Denmark.     

Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?

The downturn in the world economy following the global banking crisis has left the Chinese economy relatively unscathed. This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework with a banking sector to shed light on this episode. It differs from other applications in the use of indirect inference procedure to test the fitted model. The model finds that the main shocks hitting China in the crisis were international and that domestic banking shocks were unimportant. However, directed bank lending and direct government spending was used to supplement monetary policy to aggressively offset shocks to demand. The model finds that government expenditure feedback reduces the frequency of a business cycle crisis but that any feedback effect on investment creates excess capacity and instability in output.