A Comparison of the Recent Performance of Publicly Traded Real Property Portfolios and Common Stock

In this study we compare the returns earned by investments in publicly traded limited partnerships (PTLPs), finite life equity REITs, and traditional equity REITs with those resulting from investing in common stocks (proxied by closed-end mutual funds). Performance comparisons are made using generalized stochastic dominance (GSD). This tool avoids the joint hypothesis problem that arises when an asset pricing model is used as a performance benchmark. The results of the analysis indicate that the performance of the closed-end mutual funds was preferred to that of the individual equity REITs (both traditional and finite life) and PTLP securities by a wide array of risk-averse investors. This result was most pronounced following the passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 which severely restricted the tax deductibility of real estate losses. When the equity REITs were combined into portfolios, their performance dominated the mutual funds during the 1980–85 period. Further, the PTLP portfolio returns were preferred to several of the mutual funds even in the post-1985 period. These findings reflect the fact that the securitized real property portfolios studied are not as well diversified as mutual funds. However, the mutual funds remained the dominant investment alternative in the post-1986 period.     

Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market

This paper examines the influence that unexpected inflation has on the reported time pattern in housing returns. Two alternative models of expected inflation are used to study its effect: a rational expectations model and an adaptive expectations model. Findings indicate that both estimates of unexpected inflation are positively correlated with excess returns to housing. If inflation expectations are assumed to have been adaptive during the 1970s and early 1980s, serial correlation in the excess returns is shown to be greatly diminished when adjusted to control for unexpected inflation. However, substantial inertia in the pattern of the adjusted return series remains.     

The Effect of Unions on Productivity Growth, Investment and Employment: A Report on some Recent Work

Using two British microeconomic data sets, this paper reports the following. (1) Union firms experienced faster productivity growth during 1980–4, but there was no difference in performance in 1975–9, or 1985–6. So unions do not necessarily reduce productivity growth. It is also unlikely that the above pattern can be explained by changes in union legislation. (2) Unionism appears to have no significant effect on in vestment, once one allows for the effects of differential productivity growth. (3) Wages in union and non-union firms are equally responsive to changes in the capital–labour ratio. (4) Contrary to what is often alleged, unionism per se does not reduce employment growth. Instead, the negative correlation observed in 1980–4 probably arises from a significant reform of working practices in unionized firms during 1980–4.     

Inflation Uncertainty and Strike Activity

In this paper, we hypothesize that the general level of uncertainty can influence the level of strike activity. We test this hypothesis by considering the impact of inflation uncertain & on strike activity. Two databases are used: a pooled time-series cross-section sample of individual negotiations over the period 1971–1980, and quarterly data on negotiations from 1954 to 1980. Results from both data sets support the proposition that inflation uncertainty influences strike activity.     

Efficiency in the Mortgage Market: The Borrower's Perspective

This paper uses mortgage history data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation to analyze the prepayment behavior of homeowners and to test whether borrowers exercise their prepayment options in a manner consistent with contingent claims models. A variety of hazard models are estimated from individual data on more than 6000 mortgages issued during the 1976–1980 period. In these models, it is clear that the extent to which the prepayment option is "in the money" has a strong effect on behavior. However, it is less clear that the option is exercised quite as ruthlessly as the theory predicts.     

Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime‐Switching Approach

We propose newly developed unsmoothing techniques for appraisal‐based real estate returns based on a regime‐switching threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. We show that when true returns follow a TAR process, conventional linear autoregressive techniques are misspecified and underestimate true variance. Two exogenous variables, equity returns and gross domestic product growth, outperform other variables as regime indicators and appear to capture risks of downturns in real estate. We extend the model to the smoothing equation, allowing for switching behavior by appraisers, using two new techniques: the TAR‐AR and TAR‐TAR approaches. The “co‐switching” specification opens up a new frontier of empirical research. We estimate the TAR‐TAR using FT returns as the regime indicator, and we find results that outperform conventional smoothing models and have plausible economic explanations.     

The persistence of abnormal returns at industry and firm levels: Evidence from Spain

We apply structural equation models to longitudinal data on profits of firms within industries to study the persistence of abnormal returns. We obtain a two‐way variance decomposition for abnormal returns: at firm vs. industry levels, and at permanent vs. transitory components. This decomposition enables us to assess the relative importance of the fundamental components of abnormal returns discussed in the literature. The method is applied to a panel of 5,000 Spanish firms observed over the period 1995–2000. We conclude that: (a) there are significant and permanent differences between profit rates at both industry and firm levels; (b) variation of abnormal returns at firm level is greater than at industry level; and (c) firm and industry levels do not differ significantly regarding rates of convergence of abnormal returns. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Privately Versus Publicly Held Asset Investment Performance

Classic asset pricing is problematic as a method to assess privately held asset investment performance. We propose an alternative approach that involves adjusting the characteristics of assets constituting an index or portfolio to match the asset characteristics of a reference index or portfolio. This approach is applied to commercial real estate, where we create an index of REIT returns to compare to the NCREIF index. To enhance comparability, return indices are adjusted for partial-year financial data, leverage, asset mix and fees. Adjusted results over a 1980–1998 sample period show general convergence between the indices, although an annual return difference of over three percentage points remains in favor of public market asset ownership. Possible causes of the investment performance gap include liquidity and geography as missing risk factor adjustments, an unrepresentative sample period, and the form in which commercial real estate assets are held.     

An empirical test of arbitrage equilibrium with skewed asset returns: Australian evidence

Barone-Adesi (1985) has formulated a multivariate test (likelihood ratio) of an arbitrage equilibrium model, based on a quadratic specification of the process generating returns, that can be related to a three-moment CAPM. Australian equity returns are used to replicate this approach over the period 1963 to 1987. Furthermore, a generalised method of moments test of the Barone-Adesi model is also conducted. The results are favourable with regard to the arbitrage model. In addition the quadratic market model performs well against its traditional counterpart. This latter conclusion is robust with respect to allowing for monthly seasonal regularities in Australian returns. However, evidence regarding the three-moment CAPM is largely inconclusive.The author is a senior lecturer in the Department of Accounting and Finance, Monash University, Clayton, Australia. The author is pleased to acknowledge the helpful comments of Tim Brailsford, two anonymous referees, the participants of the Seminar Series at Monash University, and participants of the Second International Conference on Asian-Pacific Financial Markets, Hong Kong, 1991, the 1992 Annual Conference of the Accounting Association of Australia and New Zealand and the Fifth Annual Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Sydney, 1992.     

Who Initiates Recalls and Who Cares? Evidence from the Automobile Industry

In this paper, we investigate two questions. First, we explore which entity (the NHTSA or the manufacturer) is more likely to initiate a given auto safety recall campaign. Second, we analyze the determinants of owner response rates to safety recalls. Our data spans nineteen years (1980–1998) for the six largest auto manufacturers. We find evidence that the government initiates larger, less hazardous recalls involving older models and financially weak firms. Inexpensive recalls are more likely to be manufacturer initiated. The largest owner repair responses are associated with newsworthy hazardous defects of new domestic vehicles in their inaugural model year.     

House Prices and Inflation

The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice: (1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series leads to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968–2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run.     

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs

We analyze monthly returns on an equally weighted index of eighteen to twenty-three equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973–87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic factors. We also test whether equity REIT returns are related to changes in the discount on closed-end stock funds, which seems plausible given the closed-end nature of REITs.
Three factors, and the percentage change in the discount on closed-end stock funds, consistently drive equity REIT returns: unexpected inflation and changes in the risk and term structures of interest rates. The impacts of these variables on equity REIT returns is around 60% of the impacts on corporate stock returns generally. As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs than for less levered REITs. Real estate, at least as measured by the return performance of equity REITs, is less risky than stocks generally, but does not offer a superior risk-adjusted return and is not a hedge against unexpected inflation.     

Expected Equity Returns on Real Estate Financed with Life Insurance Company Loans: 1967–1977

This paper estimates the internal rate of return on eleven real property types for the period 1967–1977 using a national sample of over 39 billion dollars worth of real property. Returns are calculated four ways—1) before tax, before financing. 2) before tax, after financing, 3) after tax, before financing, and 4) after tax, after financing. Comparisons are then made to determine the effects of taxes and financing on the returns. Finally, the results are compared to an earlier study for the period 1954–1966 to determine the changes of the various factors over time.     

Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza–Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25–50% of the sample lies in the positive response region.     

Housing Inventory Change and the Role of Existing Structures, 1961–1985

This paper makes two contributions. First, an internally consistent annual data set is constructed for the housing-units identity. For the 1961–85 period, data are computed for completions, mobile home placements, the change in households, the change in vacancies, and, residually, net other additions (non-new construction additions less losses). Our computed net other additions data for 1974 to 1980 are shown to be comparable to those implicit in the Annual Housing Survey data. Second, evidence is provided that net other additions play a major role in the short-run equilibration of the demand and supply for housing units. Our evidence suggests that, on average, a surge in household formations is half satisfied by reduced losses or non-new construction additions during the concurrent year.     

Borrowing Interest Rate as a Function of the Debt-Equity Ratio in Capital Budgeting Models

This research extends Weingartner's basic horizon model by letting the borrowing terest rate vary from period to period as a function of the debt-equity ratio. blicly available data for two industries are used to obtain the function. Two models 2 developed: a non-convex nonlinear programming problem, which is solved by the oke and Jeeves algorithm; and an iterative linear model. It is concluded that either del can be used to represent the relationship between borrowing interest rate and Dt-equity ratio in the context of the capital budgeting problem.     

What Factors Determine International Real Estate Security Returns?

We use constrained cross-sectional regressions to disentangle the effects of various factors on international real estate security returns. Besides a common factor, pure country, property type, size and value/growth factors are considered. The value/growth measure that is used in this paper provides for each security the relative importance of the value and growth components, rather than a binary classification. The value/growth factor is found to be volatile and to have a substantial effect on returns over the period February 1990–April 2003. Country factors are the dominant factors, and size is shown to have a negative impact on returns. Statistical factors derived by means of cluster analysis explain about one third of specific returns on international real estate securities. The implication for portfolio managers is that failing to recognize the importance of the various factors leads to the portfolio being exposed to systematic risk.     

The Information Content of Method of Payment in Mergers: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

We provide evidence on the information content of the method of payment in mergers by examining shareholder returns in a sample of REIT mergers over the period 1994–1998. When the target firm is publicly held, we find that transactions are always stock-financed, and that acquiring firm shareholders sustain small negative returns around the announcement date. When the target is privately held, cash financing, mixed (stock and cash) financing, and placement of blocks of acquirer stock with target owners are more prevalent. Acquirer returns are positive in stock-financed mergers when the target is private, which is consistent with both the information signaling and monitoring by blockholders hypotheses. Further analysis supports the information signaling hypothesis as the dominant explanation. The effects of other explanatory variables are similar whether the target is public or private. Most significantly, acquiring shareholder returns are negatively related to the acquirer's size, but positively related to the acquirer's use of the UPREIT organizational structure. The positive wealth effects of the UPREIT structure are not fully explained as the capitalization of tax benefits.     

Training and the Growth of Wage Inequality

Shifts in the incidence of training over the 1980s favored more-educated, more-experienced workers. These shifts, coupled with increases in returns to skill, suggest that training may have contributed to the growth of between-group wage inequality in this period. However, because 1) the shifts in training were too small, and 2) the returns to training did not rise, only small fractions of the increases in returns to schooling and experience over this period can be explained by changes in the distribution of or returns to training.     

Global Financial Integration and Real Estate Security Returns

Have globalization and increasing economic and financial integration affected the rates of return of publicly traded real estate companies around the world? Using a set of multifactor models for annual data for 946 firms from 16 countries over the sample period, 1995–2002, we estimate the impact of a country's economic openness on returns of publicly traded real estate firms, controlling for the effects of global capital markets, domestic macroeconomic conditions and firm‐specific variables. We find that a country's real estate security excess (risk‐adjusted) returns are negatively related to its openness. The results are robust across different multifactor model specifications and are a testament to increasing global financial integration and its interplay with the real estate sector.