An Approach to Industrial Real Estate Market Segmentation and Valuation Using the Arbitrage Pricing Paradigm

This paper investigates whether a segmented market exists for industrial real estate with respect to risk and return characteristics. Given the existence of industrial market segmentation, the next issue examined is whether a submarket perspective or an integrated real estate market orientation provides better rate of return estimates for individual industrial properties using an Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) framework. The results support the existence of regional markets for industrial real estate. A submarket orientation rather than an integrated perspective is also found more appropriate in predicting returns on industrial real estate.     

The Real Estate Pricing Puzzle

The state-of-the-art with respect to pricing real estate is similar to that with respect to pricing securities just prior to the development of the CAPM. Reading the entrails of real estate markets, however, has proven a formidable task, and the problem is not limited to inadequate data. Perhaps the most important lesson to date is that available pricing models are not up to the task.     

Real Estate Settlement Pricing: A Theoretical Framework

This paper examines the pricing of real estate settlement services. Prices charged by real estate brokers, title insurers, private mortgage companies and other settlement service providers have been a public policy issue for a decade. The Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974 did little to alleviate public concerns or change pricing practices.
The paper provides both a conceptual framework and some observations on how prices for settlement services are determined. It concludes that the demand has little to do with the services themselves, but rather depends on the demand for housing. This creates an environment for unnecessary services to be performed and for prices to be far in excess of cost.     

Illiquidity and Pricing Biases in the Real Estate Market

This article addresses the micro-analytic foundations of illiquidity and price dynamics in the real estate market by integrating modern portfolio theory with models describing the real estate transaction process. Based on the notion that real estate is a heterogeneous good that is traded in decentralized markets and that transactions in these markets are often characterized by costly searches, we argue that the most important aspects defining real estate illiquidity in both residential and commercial markets are the time required for sale and the uncertainty of the marketing period. These aspects provide two sources of bias in the commonly adopted methods of real estate valuation, which are based solely on the prices of sold properties and implicitly assume immediate execution. We demonstrate that estimated returns must be biased upward and risks downward. These biases can be significant, especially when the marketing period is highly uncertain relative to the holding period. We also find that real estate risk is closely related to investors' time horizons, specifically that real estate risk decreases when the holding period increases. These results are consistent with the conventional wisdom that real estate is more favorable to long-term investors than to short-term investors. They also provide a theoretical foundation for the recent econometric literature, which finds evidence of smoothing of real estate returns. Our findings help explain the apparent risk-premium puzzle in real estate—that is, that ex post returns appear too high, given their apparent low volatility—and can lead to the formal derivation of adjustments that can define real estate's proper role in the mixed-asset portfolio.     

Capital Asset Pricing and Real Estate Valuation*

This paper examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model with respect to its implications for real estate investment analysis and appraisal. The derivation of the CAPM, and theoretical problems with it, are discussed, along with its empirical validation. The similarities and differences between real estate and securities markets are evaluated. Alternative models to the CAPM are presented, followed by the conclusions.     

Tax Reform and Organizational Forms for Holding Investment Real Estate: Corporation vs. Partnership

Following the ERTA of 1981, partnership ownership of real estate dominated corporate ownership. This study concludes that the Tax Reform Act of 1986 provides incentive for holding real estate investments that produce sizable tax losses and/or that are eligible for large tax credits in corporate rather than partnership form. Perpetuity cash flow models are employed initially to identify key tax and cash flow variables favorable to each organizational form. The perpetuity assumption is then relaxed to consider a more representative real estate investment. A sensitivity analysis examines the extent to which the base case results are dependent on the assumed values of selected model parameters.     

Continental Factors in International Real Estate Returns

This paper examines the extent to which real estate returns are driven by continental factors. This subject is relevant for determining the country allocation of international real estate portfolios. If returns are driven by a continental factor, investors should look for diversification opportunities outside their own continent. This paper finds strong continental factors in North America and especially in the United States. For the Asia–Pacific region, real estate returns are not driven by a continental factor. The results suggest that, for European, North American and Asia—Pacific real estate portfolio managers, the Asia—Pacific region provides attractive international diversification opportunities.     

实物期权理论在房地产投资决策中应用

房地产业是我国经济增长的引擎和支柱产业,又是一个涉及到各行各业的产业,其受国家政策、环境变化、地区经济和文化影响大,存在很大的不确定性。针对这种不确定性,引入实物期权理论研究了房地产投资决策架构和投资分析方法。     

对投资性房地产准则理论与实务角度的思考

投资性房地产准则是38项具体准则中新增的准则之一,其内容体现了与国际会计准则的趋同。本文从以公允价值计量模式对投资性房地产进行后续计量对企业的影响进行讨论,同时也对这一计量模式不成熟的地方提出了相关建议。     

Loss Aversion and Anchoring in Commercial Real Estate Pricing: Empirical Evidence and Price Index Implications

Loss aversion behavior plays a major role in the pricing of commercial properties, and it varies both across the type of market participants and across the cycle. We find that sophisticated and more experienced investors are at least as loss averse as their counterparts and that loss aversion operated most strongly during the cycle peak in 2007. We also document a possible anchoring effect of the asking price in influencing buyer valuation and subsequent transaction price. We demonstrate the importance of behavioral phenomena in constructing hedonic price indices, and we find that the impact of loss aversion is attenuated at the aggregate market level. This suggests that the pricing and volume cycle during 2001–2009 was little affected by loss aversion.     

Incentive Compensation and the Likelihood of Termination: Theory and Evidence from Real Estate Organizations

We analyze two managerial compensation incentive devices: the threat of termination and pay for performance. We first develop a simple model predicting that these devices are substitutes: when termination incentives are low, optimal contracts provide stronger pay‐for‐performance incentives. We then use data from real estate organizations to provide two independent tests of the model’s central prediction. First, we use the fact that chief executive officers of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and general partners of Real Estate Limited Partnerships (RELPs) perform similar tasks, yet organizational features of RELPs ensure that the latter are much harder to terminate. Consistent with the model, we find that pay‐for‐performance sensitivity is much higher for general partners of RELPs, where the termination threat is less credible. Second, we use a recent cross‐section of REITs to show that in property types where it is expected to be more costly to replace managers, those managers have stronger pay‐for‐performance incentives.     

What Factors Determine International Real Estate Security Returns?

We use constrained cross-sectional regressions to disentangle the effects of various factors on international real estate security returns. Besides a common factor, pure country, property type, size and value/growth factors are considered. The value/growth measure that is used in this paper provides for each security the relative importance of the value and growth components, rather than a binary classification. The value/growth factor is found to be volatile and to have a substantial effect on returns over the period February 1990–April 2003. Country factors are the dominant factors, and size is shown to have a negative impact on returns. Statistical factors derived by means of cluster analysis explain about one third of specific returns on international real estate securities. The implication for portfolio managers is that failing to recognize the importance of the various factors leads to the portfolio being exposed to systematic risk.     

The Theory and Evidence on Real Estate Financial Decisions: A Review of the Issues

There has developed a growing body of literature, both theoretically and empirically based, on real estate financial decisions. Despite these advances, there are a number of important issues that remain unanswered. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review and analysis of where research on real estate financial decisions has been, where it stands today, and where it is likely to be headed in the future. Some of the unresolved issues in real estate investment analysis are also discussed. The hope is that this review will provide the stimulus for solving some of these complex issues.     

The Strategic Role of Listing Price in Marketing Real Estate: Theory and Evidence

The seller of a real estate property and his broker have two primary goals: to sell the properly for as high a price as possible and as quickly as possible. While these are separate objectives, they are closely related through the listing price of the seller. The listing price affects how long it takes to find a buyer (i.e., Time On the Market = TOM), and TOM influences the price that results from the bargaining between the seller and the buyer. This leaves the seller and his agent with an important question: What is the optimal price to be asked for the property? The objective of this research is to provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of listing price on TOM and the transaction price.     

基于委托-代理理论分析经济适用房开发商的行为选择

基于委托—代理理论，分析了经济适用虏开发商的行为选择。通过分析表明，在政府监控主体缺失的情况下，开发商所选择的占优策略是违规开发。因此，为避免道德风险问题，政府主管部门应当通过制定权利和义务、责任和利益相制衡的竞争和激励约束机制，将委托人的风险不同程度的转为代理人的风险，从而规范开发商的行为。     

Real Estate Cycles: Some Fundamentals

This paper demonstrates that different types of real estate can have very different cyclic properties. Empirically, it is shown that they do, and the question is posed as to what might distinguish between property markets where movements are largely stable responses to repeated economic shocks and those undergoing a continuing endogenous oscillation. A stock-flow model is built in which the future expectations of agents, the development lag, the degree of durability and market elasticities all can vary. Experiments reveal the dynamic behavior of the model varies quite sharply with all these factors. Forward forecasting by agents leads to stability, while myopic behavior promotes oscillations. Oscillations are also much more likely when supply is more elastic than demand, development lags are long, and asset durability is low.     

Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory

In this article, we define a new construct for urban economic and investment analysis, which revisits the conventional wisdom that investment in real estate development is riskier than investment in stabilized property assets. This new construct, referred as a “development asset value index” (DAVI), is a value index for newly developed properties (only) in a given geographical property market. It tracks longitudinal changes in the highest and best use (HBU) value of locations, and it reveals developer and landowner behavior taking advantage of the optionality inherent in land ownership. In particular, the DAVI reflects developers' use of flexibility in the exercise of the call option to (re)develop the property to any legal use and density. We empirically estimate a DAVI for commercial property (i.e., central locations) and compare it with a corresponding traditional transaction‐price‐based property asset price index (PAPI) corrected for depreciation. We believe that the difference primarily reflects the realized value of flexibility in land development. We find that the DAVIs display greater value growth and are smoother over time and less cyclical than their corresponding PAPIs for the same locations. This suggests that developers successfully use flexibility, and that development may be riskier than stabilized property investment due primarily only to leverage effects (construction costs). Practical implications are also discussed.     

基于顾客价值视角的住宅开发企业虚拟经营模式研究

优异的顾客价值是当今企业市场竞争力的丰要来源,在竞争日益激烈的住宅开发市场,不断创造和提供优异的顾客价值成为住宅开发企业成功绎营的关键要素。分析了顾客价值的内涵,探讨了顾客价值与企业虚拟经营之间的关系。在此基础上以顾客价值为中心,构建了基于顾客价值的住宅开发企业虚拟经营模式,为成功的运用这一模式,提出了相应的建议。     

Toward an Evolutionary Theory of Trade Associations: The Case of Real Estate Appraisers

This paper proposes a developmental theory of trade association life cycles with special emphasis on the case of real estate appraisers. Given a neo-institutional perspective of the demand for appraisal services, the paper views real estate appraisers as information specialists. Trade associations tend to develop along a common, although not strictly fixed, set of steps. At each stage, various institutional activities occur that when observed, can be used to characterize the association's rate of development. In this context, real estate appraisers and their institutions are examined. Recent advances provide evidence that major changes are currently underway.