The secular inflation term in open-economy Phillips curves

Robert Flood has compared three alternative specifications for the secular inflation term in an open-economy Phillips curve, attributed, respectively, to Buiter-Miller, and Frankel and Mussa. We point out (1) an arithmetic error, (2) the equivalence of the Frankel and Mussa versions, and (3) some arguments against the Buiter-Miller version.     

Regret theory and the competitive firm: A comment

In a recent paper, Wong [Wong, K. P. (2014), Regret theory and the competitive firm. Economic Modelling, 36, 172–175.] develops a model to examine the production behavior of a regret averse competitive firm. Wong discusses the sufficient condition to ensure the conventional result that the optimal output level under uncertainty is less than that under certainty hold. Our contributions in this note are two-fold. Firstly, we point out that Wong's condition in terms of the first order derivatives of the utility function and the regret function is actually not sufficient. Secondly and more importantly, we show that a sufficient condition should be in terms of the relatively increase rate of the first order derivatives of the two functions. That's, it's the ratio of the risk aversion and regret aversion degree that matters. Our proposed condition requests that the firm should be not too regret averse.     

The expectations theory of the term structure: Evidence from inflation forecasts

This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations theory of the term structure using the Livingston survey data on price inflation forecasts. For a variety of sample periods, the paper presents evidence that the data are consistent with the theory. Since inflation forecasts, unlike interest rates, are not linked to specific underlying financial assets, the relationship between longterm and short-term inflation forecasts should not embody risk premia. This paper's findings therefore lend support to the view that a time-varying risk premium is needed to explain the observed term structure of interest rates.     

The structuralist theory of imported inflation: an application to South Africa

This study emphasizes the importance of identifying the origin of inflation in the present context of inflation targeting by many emerging market and transition economies. The analysis shows, based on South African data, how structural (supply) and demand inflation can be distinguished. The results indicate that South Africa's inflation experience between 1973q1 and 1998q4 is characterized by two monetary regimes. During the first regime (1973q1–1984q4) the long-run cause of inflation is demand-pull. The second regime (1987q1–1998q4) represents major changes to structural (‘imported’) and cost-push inflation. The two-year period 1985–1986 signifies structural change from the first to the second regime. Moreover, the results in the second regime remain robust when the inflation model is subjected to ‘new’ out-of-sample data until 2001q2. Evidence of structural (‘imported’) inflation in the second regime suggests that inflation should not entirely be squeezed out of the system nor should it necessarily be kept at the lowest possible level, because some inflation may be regarded as the natural by-product of the growth and development process. South Africa's inflation experience points to several lessons for existing (and potential) emerging market and transition economies with some form of inflation targeting.     

On the real effects of inflation in open economies: theory and empirics

Based on the quarterly data from four open economies (the US, the UK, Canada, and Italy) and estimated correlations and impulse responses within the traditional vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis, we find that inflation, both in the short and long term, negatively affects consumption and investment, and has a positive influence on the current account. We propose an infinite-horizon optimizing model of an open economy with a fixed rate of time preference that explains these empirics. In this type of economy, households consume both durable and non-durable goods, firms operate under costly investment, and all the transactions involving consumption and investment are subject to cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints. Employing the new ‘sign restriction’ identification procedure due to Uhlig (J Mone’t Econ 52(2)381–419, 2005), we corroborate the empirical validity of the proposed model. In order to verify the robustness of our results, we consider another shock, namely, productivity shock in our empirical analysis and find that while productivity shock dominates in the case of the US, inflationary shock has a dominating effect in the case of the UK, Canada, and Italy.     

Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation

We use a threshold methodology to investigate the importance of non-linear effects in the analysis of the inflation globalization hypothesis. Accounting for potential non-linearities in the Phillips Curve, we show that trade openness is not rejected as a threshold variable for the effects of domestic and foreign slack on inflation in many advanced economies, and we find a switch of the output gap slopes from one regime to the other that is consistent with the key predictions of the inflation globalization hypothesis. For some countries the threshold Phillips Curve model also leads to improvements in out-of-sample forecast over the linear Phillips models, especially at longer horizons. Contrary to most of the previous literature which ignores such non-linearities, our new approach provides some interesting empirical evidence supportive of the effect globalization has on a country’s inflation dynamics.     

An evolutionary theory of the convergence towards low inflation rates

This paper presents an evolutionary interpretation of Barro-Gordons monetary policy game. The model describes a multi-country setup where governments and private agents are boundedly rational players. The behavioral rule of players decisions leads to the imitation of the strategy giving the highest payoff. In this evolutionary monetary policy game, we show how a low inflation state is reached from an international context dominated by inflationary policies. The analysis explains the convergence towards low inflation rates observed during the past twenty years. Moreover, the low inflation state appears to be the long-run equilibrium of the game under some conditions featuring the observed macroeconomic context.JEL Classification: E5, C72, C73 Correspondence to: A. dArtigues     

The control of inflation: A suggested policy

Much of the debate over the relative merits of Keynesian or Monetarist approaches to inflation policy is based on the presumption that the individual policy-maker's model of the economy is correct. It is argued here that this is an undesirable assumption, given that there is no concensus as to which of the models more accurately describes ‘reality’. The paper attempts to take this problem into account by suggesting a policy for the control of inflation which does not rely on the assumption that a specifically Keynesian, or Monetarist, model is the appropriate one.     

The feasibility of low inflation: theory with an application to the argentine case

In this paper we review the Argentine experience of hyperinflation, concentrating on understanding why stabilization took so long, and was only implemented by the most unlikely candidate. To explain these facts we present a voting model in which politicians' actions transmit information about the state of the economy and thus shape voters' behavior. We discuss the implications of the model for countries which are going through the same instability that characterized Argentina in the late 80s.     

Contests with spying: A comment

The subject of the following comment is a paper by Baik and Shogren which has been published in this journal (Vol. 11, No. 3 (1995) pp. 441–451). In their game-theoretic model, Baik and Shogren connect the informational states of the agents in a way which leads to inconsistencies.     

Wages and profits: A comment

Clark's (1979) model for the levels of aggregate wages and profits is respecified and reestimated using modern econometric techniques. One result is a more efficient estimate of the capital-labor substitution elasticity. In addition, the presence of very strong positive autocorrelation in one of the equations sheds doubt on Clark's assertion that a model for the levels of these variables is more appropriate than a model for their year-to-year changes.