Share price volatility with the introduction of individual share futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange

This paper examines a recent innovation in financial derivative securities—individual share futures contracts traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange. We investigate changes in the volatility of the underlying shares in the cash market using an asymmetric exponential ARCH model. The overall evidence suggests that the introduction of futures trading has had very little impact on cash market volatility. Trade in the futures market has less of an effect on cash market volatility than cash market trading for most shares.     

An Empirical Examination of the Return Volatility-Volume Relation in Related Markets: The Case of Stock and Options

This paper empirically examines the impact of option trading on the relation between daily stock return volatility and stock trading volume. For a sample of firms for which options were newly listed on the CBOE from 1982 to 1985, the empirical evidence indicates that there is a structural shift in the relation after option trading is introduced. Also, the findings show that daily stock return volatility is significantly and positively correlated with contemporaneous option volume, but not one-day lagged option volume. These results suggest that contemporaneous option volume may be an important variable in modelling daily stock return volatility and heteroskedasticity.     

Does foreign investor demand for information affect forecast accuracy? Evidence from the Chinese stock markets

Prior international accounting studies have examined mainly the supply side of analyst research. Specific trading rights and financial reporting systems in China provide a unique opportunity to test both demand and supply factors of analyst information. For shares traded only by less-informed foreign investors, the increased information demand may create incentives for analysts to exert greater efforts than for shares traded by local investors. This study provides evidence that analyst effort (proxied by analyst coverage) and expertise (proxied by consensus cross-analyst forecast variability) affect forecast accuracy more significantly for shares traded by foreign investors than for shares traded by local investors. Additionally, I find that the relation between analyst characteristics and relative forecast accuracy is stronger for shares traded by the foreign investors. The findings are consistent with analysts responding to demands for information by less-informed investors.     

The impact of salient political and economic news on the trading activity

This paper investigates the impact of salient political and economic news on the intraday trading activity, namely, the stock return volatility, the stock price volatility, the number of shares traded, and the trading frequency. Using transactions data on 33 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index in the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK), we find that political news has a distinct impact on market activity when compared with economic news. We argue that the observed phenomenon is related to the precision of signals associated with these two types of news and investors' perceptual biases.     

Stock Returns and Volatility under Market Segmentation: The Case of Chinese A and B Shares

In most countries where firms list separate shares for trading by foreign and domestic investors, the prices of the foreign shares tend to be higher. In China, the reverse tends to be true. In this paper, we would like to focus on the information content in lagged premiums of Chinese A over B traded shares. The lagged premiums are found to have certain predictive power over the future returns and volatility of both A and B shares, with some interesting patterns. Specifically, an increase in the premium ratio of A shares will be followed by a rise in the return of A shares and a fall in the return of B shares. It is found that both of the investors in Chinese A- and B-share markets reveal positive feedback trading behavior. Moreover, the liquidity and information availability will affect the magnitude of such behavior especially in B-share markets. By using multivariate GARCH model, it is also demonstrated that the unexpected changes in the premium ratio of A-share price over B-share price contribute to the return volatility of both A shares and B shares. These patterns may provide foundations for the development of pricing models for equity shares under market segmentation.     

RECENT GROWTH IN NASDAQ TRADING VOLUME AND ITS RELATION TO MARKET VOLATILITY

We document a significant increase in Nasdaq trading volume relative to New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and American Stock Exchange (AMEX) trading volumes. Although recent increases in the number of shares traded are reported in the financial press, we also find it present in the percentage of dollar values traded. We then examine correlations between trading volume and several measures of market volatility. Nasdaq volume appears to be more closely correlated with residual variance, while NYSE and AMEX volumes are more closely correlated with overall market variance. We conclude that the type and quantity of information driving trading are different on Nasdaq than on the two exchanges, and that the relative growth in Nasdaq volume cannot be attributed solely to differences in the methods of counting volume in the two market environments.     

Variations in Trading Volume,Return Volatility,and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models

Patterns in stock market trading volume, trading costs, and return volatility are examined using New York Stock Exchange data from 1988. Intraday test results indicate that, for actively traded firms trading volume, adverse selection costs, and return volatility are higher in the first half-hour of the day. This evidence is inconsistent with the Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) model which predicts that trading costs are low when volume and return volatility are high. Interday test results show that, for actively traded firms, trading volume is low and adverse selection costs are high on Monday, which is consistent with the predictions of the Foster and Viswanathan (1990) model.     

Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics

The publicly traded Boston Celtics Limited Partnership shares provide a unique means of studying the impact of information on equity prices. The results of the Celtics’ basketball games significantly affect partnership share returns, trading volume, and volatility. Controlling for the expectedvalue of the signal using betting-market point spreads has little effect on these relations. Investors respond asymmetrically to wins and losses, and playoff games have a larger impact on returns than regular-season games. Opening prices do not fully reflect game results, consistent with previous findings that significant volatility is caused by traders acting on private information.     

Volume,volatility and information linkages in the stock and option markets

This paper examines the relationship between option trading activity and stock market volatility. Although the option market is uniquely suited for trading on volatility information, there is little analysis on how trading activity in this market is linked to stock price volatility. The bulk of the discussion tends to focus on whether trading activity in the stock market is informative about stock volatility. To analyze the information in option trading activity for stock market volatility, a sample of 15 stocks with the highest option trading volume is selected. For each stock, it is noted that the trading activities in the put and call option markets have significant explanatory power for stock market volatility. In addition, the results indicate that the call option trading activity has a stronger impact on stock volatility compared with that of the put options. Our results demonstrate that information and sentiment in the option market is useful for the estimation of stock market volatility. Also, the significance of the effects of option trading activity on stock price volatility is observed to be comparable to that of stock market trading activity. Furthermore, the persistence and asymmetric effects in the volatility of some stocks tend to disappear once option trading activity is taken into account.     

Do regulatory policies affect the flow of information in emerging markets?

In a previous paper we established that volatility is best explained by contemporaneous rather than lagged trading volume in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of regulatory policies - namely the switch from price limit to circuit breaker - on the dynamic relationship between trading volume and stock returns volatility in the EGX. Using daily returns data for 20 actively traded companies as well as the EGX30 market index, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), results show that the volume-volatility relationship is not only endogenous but is also structurally altered by the switch.     

The Effect of Option Listing on Bid-Ask Spreads,Price Volatility,and Trading Activity of the Underlying OTC Stocks

This paper examines the changes in spreads, price volatility, and trading activity surrounding option listing for a sample of 144 OTC stocks. For this sample, both price volatility and volume increase, but the evidence on spreads is mixed. The increase in price volatility is attributed primarily to an increase in residual return variances. Furthermore, price volatility increases even after controlling for volume, insider trading, and spreads. Although these variables do not fully explain the causes for the increase in price volatility after option listing, the results suggest that liquidity trading or volume has a stronger effect on price volatility than insider trading. This study also finds that both the number of trades and institutional holdings show substantial increases, which are supportive of the notion that listing of options on OTC stocks attracts more attention.     

Accounting quality,information risk and the term structure of implied volatility around earnings announcements

We examine the association between accounting quality, which is used as a proxy for firm information risk, and the behavior of the term structure of implied option volatility around earnings announcements. By employing a large sample of US firms having options traded on their equity during 1996–2010, we find that lower (higher) accounting quality is significantly associated with stronger (weaker) changes in the steepness of the term structure of implied volatility curve around quarterly earnings announcements. This finding (which is robust to controls for business-stemming uncertainty regarding future firm performance) is consistent with a stronger differential of short vs. long-term uncertainty for higher information risk firms, indicating greater uncertainty on the future economic performance of poorer vs. stronger accounting quality firms. We also establish the trading implications of these findings by demonstrating a (profitable in-sample) self-financed option trading strategy that is based on the quality of the accounting information released on earnings announcement days.     

The Pricing of When-Issued Securities

The observed pricing of when-issued securities would seem to violate the law of one price in financial economics. Generally, when-issued shares sell at a premium over the original shares during the short time when both are traded. This paper examines whether this observed premium could be due to a nonsynchronous trading problem, to the intensity of trading, to the exchange on which the shares are traded, to whether the shares are traded pre-or-post -negotiable commissions, or to the nature of the demand for when-issued relative to the price setting of the specialist. Results indicate that most orders for when-issued securities are buys, that these orders typically take place at the specialist's ask price, and that accounting for this trading mechanism explains the positive premium on when-issued securities.     

Volatility Information Trading in the Option Market

This paper investigates informed trading on stock volatility in the option market. We construct non-market maker net demand for volatility from the trading volume of individual equity options and find that this demand is informative about the future realized volatility of underlying stocks. We also find that the impact of volatility demand on option prices is positive. More importantly, the price impact increases by 40% as informational asymmetry about stock volatility intensifies in the days leading up to earnings announcements and diminishes to its normal level soon after the volatility uncertainty is resolved.     

Trading frequency and the efficiency of price discovery in a non-dealer market

The increasing popularity of non-dealer security markets that offer automated, computer-based, continuous trading reflects a presumption that institutionally-set trading sessions are economically obsolete. This theoretical paper investigates the effect of the trading frequency, a key feature of the trading mechanism, on the efficiency of price discovery in a non-dealer market. By tracing the market pricing error to the correlation structures of arriving information and pricing errors of individual traders, the effect of diverging expectations on error-based and overall return volatility is isolated. The analysis reveals that, due to a portfolio effect, an increase in the trading time interval has contradictory effects on the portion of return volatility stemming from pricing errors. The greater accumulation of information increases error-based return volatility, but the greater volume and number of traders per session have the opposite effect. The net effect on overall return volatility can go either way. It is found that the return volatility of heavily traded securities is likely to be minimized under continuous trading, but that of thinly traded securities may be minimized under discrete trading at moderate time intervals. The latter is more likely to occur the greater is the divergence of expectations among traders. These findings challenge the presumption that automated continuous trading in a non-dealer market is more efficient than discrete trading for all securities, regardless of trading volume. The findings are applicable to all economies, but have special importance for developing countries where typically a single market is dominated by small issues and a low volume of trade. As a by-product of the analysis, it is shown how to correct the biased estimate of inter-session price volatility when observations are less frequent than the trading sessions themselves.     

Differently motivated exchange traded fund trading activities and the volatility of the underlying index

This paper examines the correlations between two types of a market index's volatility and three trading motives of the index's exchange traded funds (ETFs). We find that ETF trading driven by belief dispersion is highly correlated with both the variance in efficient price innovations (VEPI) and the index's total volatility. Privately informed ETF trading is closely connected to the VEPI but not the total volatility, while liquidity ETF trading explains the total volatility but has little power in explaining the VEPI. Moreover, the leading ETF dominates smaller ETFs in explaining both types of volatility and often has more explanatory power than control variables.     

Do exchange‐traded fund flows increase the volatility of the underlying index? Evidence from the emerging market in China

Studying 70 Chinese equity exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), we show that daily ETF flows significantly increase both the total volatility and the fundamental volatility of the underlying index on the next trading day. More specifically, it is the forward‐looking flow component which captures APs’ share creation/redemption activities beyond their role of market makers that can significantly predict the two types of volatility. Moreover, ETF arbitrage (ETF's information share) enhances the effect of forward‐looking flows on the total volatility (fundamental volatility) of the index. Furthermore, the relationships between forward‐looking flows and the two types of index volatility show a two‐way contagion.     

2014年10月银行间市场运行报告

10月,银行间市场的主要运行特点是：人民币市场资金面维持宽松,长期利率走低、短期利率升而不高;债券市场维持暧势,国债收益率曲线显著下移;人民币交易汇率持续走强,相对中间价偏离继续温和扩大;人民币利率互换收盘曲线整体下移,交易量同比显著增长;外汇衍生品交投活跃,外汇掉期曲线与上月持平,期权波动率继续小幅上行。     

VOLATILITY FORECASTS,TRADING VOLUME,AND THE ARCH VERSUS OPTION‐IMPLIED VOLATILITY TRADE‐OFF

We investigate empirically the role of trading volume (1) in predicting the relative informativeness of volatility forecasts produced by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models versus the volatility forecasts derived from option prices, and (2) in improving volatility forecasts produced by ARCH and option models and combinations of models. Daily and monthly data are explored. We find that if trading volume was low during period t?1 relative to the recent past, ARCH is at least as important as options for forecasting future stock market volatility. Conversely, if volume was high during period t?1 relative to the recent past, option‐implied volatility is much more important than ARCH for forecasting future volatility. Considering relative trading volume as a proxy for changes in the set of information available to investors, our findings reveal an important switching role for trading volume between a volatility forecast that reflects relatively stale information (the historical ARCH estimate) and the option‐implied forward‐looking estimate.     

WHEN‐ISSUED SHARES,SMALL TRADES,AND THE VARIANCE OF RETURNS AROUND STOCK SPLITS

The increases in volatility after stock splits have long puzzled researchers. The usual suspects of discreteness and bid‐ask spread do not provide a complete explanation. We provide new clues to solve this mystery by examining the trading of when‐issued shares that are available before the split. When‐issued trading permits noise traders to compete with a more homogenous set of traders, decreasing the volatility of the stock before the split. Following the split, these noise traders reunite in one market and volatility increases. Thus, the higher volatility after the ex date of a stock split is a function of the introduction of when‐issued trading, the new lower price level after the split date, and the increased activity of small‐volume traders around a stock split.