Technical change and work organisation

The increasing use of new technology in factories has radical implications for the modern organisation and experience of work. All the things which determine the experience of the worker are being redesigned around the latest equipment and machinery. This article reports on case studies concerned with the introduction of new technology in British industry.     

房产调控艰难转身

中秋节前夕，供职于北京某外企的白民为父母在崇文门附近买下了一套膳．价65万元的二手房。与买第一套房子时的“马拉松”式挑选不同，这次从看房到付钱白民前后只花了一个多星期。“听说银行马上要提高第二套住房的首付了，还是抓紧买了吧。”     

Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making

Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and, if so, whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantially more accurate than those from the relevant benchmark method. An inspection of global temperature data suggests that temperature is subject to irregular variations on all relevant time scales, and that variations during the late 1900s were not unusual. In such a situation, a “no change” extrapolation is an appropriate benchmark forecasting method. We used the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s annual average thermometer data from 1850 through 2007 to examine the performance of the benchmark method. The accuracy of forecasts from the benchmark is such that even perfect forecasts would be unlikely to help policymakers. For example, mean absolute errors for the 20- and 50-year horizons were 0.18  C and 0.24  C respectively. We nevertheless demonstrate the use of benchmarking with the example of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 1992 linear projection of long-term warming at a rate of 0.03  C per year. The small sample of errors from ex ante projections at 0.03  C per year for 1992 through 2008 was practically indistinguishable from the benchmark errors. Validation for long-term forecasting, however, requires a much longer horizon. Again using the IPCC warming rate for our demonstration, we projected the rate successively over a period analogous to that envisaged in their scenario of exponential CO₂ growth—the years 1851 to 1975. The errors from the projections were more than seven times greater than the errors from the benchmark method. Relative errors were larger for longer forecast horizons. Our validation exercise illustrates the importance of determining whether it is possible to obtain forecasts that are more useful than those from a simple benchmark before making expensive policy decisions.     

Occupational change,employer change,internal migration,and earnings

"In this paper I use microdata from the [U.S.] Panel Study of Income Dynamics to measure the financial returns to intercounty and interstate migration for individuals in a temporal framework accounting for gains that accrue over time....To account for the indirect effects of migration on earnings, explanatory variables are created by interacting migration status with: (1) occupational change, (2) employer change and (3) changes in both occupation and employer. These interaction terms are then included in the earnings functions. Earnings are estimated for three years subsequent to the migration decision to account for the financial returns to migration accruing over time. Results indicate that, when estimating earnings, the use of a simple migration dummy variable will mask the indirect effects of migration on earnings."     

评价质量方针目标应把握：宗旨 方针 目标 职责 可测量

按照GB/T19001--2000标准的要求,组织在建立质量管理体系时,必须明确组织的质量方针和质量目标,并形成文件,定期对质量方针和质量目标进行评价.     

Redundancy,values and public policy

Although the Industrial Relations Act marks the most significant break with the traditional “abstentionist” role of the law in British labour relations, it is true to say that during the last ten years the development of public policy has entailed a growing involvement of lawyers and the law in the world of work. As Professor Kahn-Freund has written:     

Shop steward tenure and workplace organisation*

The shop steward theme is continued in this article which is based upon research carried out in six manufacturing plants in Hull. Graham Winch identifies the problem of shop steward turnover and argues that the most important cause lies in the shop steward being deprived of resources necessary for carrying out the job.     

Mergers,strategic investments and antitrust policy

Established firms can diversify into new markets in two distinct modes: through internal development or through conglomerate merger. Building on a dynamic three-stage bargaining model with variable threats, this paper shows that a lenient antitrust position toward horizontal mergers can induce established firms that would otherwise not have entered to enter via conglomerate merger. The vigor of antitrust enforcement toward horizontal mergers also affects the conglomerate acquisition price but it does not influence the choice of entry mode. Finally, the paper brings to light a heretofore neglected avenue through which conglomerate mergers can increase welfare.     

Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations.This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. In this setting, the paper aims to test whether monetary policy may have been a source of macroeconomic instability in the 1970s by inducing unstable learning dynamics.The model is estimated by Bayesian methods. The constant-gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters in the system.The results show that monetary policy was respecting the Taylor principle also in the pre-1979 period and, therefore, did not trigger macroeconomic instability.     

Individual homelessness: Entries,exits, and policy

Homelessness is part of the lives of many people. But almost no one is homeless for all or most of his or her life. The median shelter homeless spell is well under a month, and even “chronic homelessness” officially entails spells of a year or so. I model homelessness as part of people’s lives in a dynamic stochastic framework in continuous time. I can explain many empirical regularities with a parsimonious model: for instance, why the last addresses of homeless people are concentrated in a few low-rent neighborhoods, why homeless entries are hard to predict, why recidivism is common and past homelessness is a good predictor of future homelessness, why some groups recidivate more often than others, why the hazard rate for shelter exit is single-peaked, why effective homelessness prevention programs do not alter the average length of homeless spells. I also examine policy. The optimal homelessness prevention program is Pigouvian and starkly simple. With an optimal prevention program in place, optimal shelter quality maximizes a simple and intuitive expression, and insurance programs always raise social welfare. Most of the previous economics literature about homelessness has been static, but most literature about homelessness outside economics has been dynamic. This paper tries to bring the two strands of literature closer together.     

Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare

We evaluate the welfare implications of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a small open-economy model that incorporates the financial accelerator coupled with liability dollarization. We solve the model up to a second-order approximation which allows us to rigorously address the relationship between uncertainty and welfare. We identify leverage and debt-to-GDP ratios above which an exchange rate peg is welfare superior to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results indicate that emerging market countries with even moderate levels of foreign currency-denominated debt may find it beneficial to stabilize their exchange rates.     

Brigade organisation and industrial relations strategy in Bulgaria, 1978–83

This article aims to show how the brigade form of work organisation has become an integral part of industrial relations strategy in Bulgaria; how the brigade system operates; and how it relates to other aspects of industrial relations strategy.     

Stock market volatility,the news,and monetary policy

The dynamic relationship linking the volatility of equity prices with “the news” and the expected path for monetary policy is investigated. Previous results that link the impact of the news about real activity to changes in current and future interest rates are employed in developing a positive link between changes in volatility and the news. Empirically, our results uncover a positive and statistically significant response of the CBOE volatility index, VIX, to unanticipated changes in employment, but not to inflation. Hence, agents' expectations for the policy response to news have an important influence on the expected volatility of stock prices. (JEL E44, E52)     

Technology,industry, and the question of national policy

This paper examines the need for national legislation to guide technological development in the United States. It describes the breadth to which federal governmental policy already affects U.S. industrial growth and the ways this involvement inhibits the U.S. productive capacity. Two contributing factors, problems at the government—industry interface and failures in the U.S. educational system, are discussed. It is concluded that the U.S. has already, through copious legislation and bureaucratic excesses, diluted the strength of its technological and industrial growth. It is also concluded that the college of technology, a relatively new institution in the U.S. educational system, is the correct source of guidance for technological and industrial development.