ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

ON THE HIDDEN REVENUE EFFECTS OF WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA: INITIAL RESULTS

A preliminary analysis of demand in eight major OECD wool-consuming countries is used to provide up-to-date estimates of price elasticities of demand for wool. Those elasticities are employed to calculate ex ante market prices, assuming no wool price stabilisation in Australia. The computed ex ante prices are used in a dynamic simulation to estimate demand and, hence, revenue from wool sales to the eight countries in the absence of reserve price operations in Australia. Based on the preferred semi-log demand curve, the variability of wool prices is estimated to have been reduced by 44 per cent, due to Australian intervention in the market up to 1977/78. However, price stabilisation is estimated to have lowered the revenue from Australian wool sales to the eight countries by S139m, or by 2 per cent, in the period up to 1977/78.     

SOME CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH PRICE STABILIZATION BY THE WOOL COMMISSION REDUCES INCOMES*

Stabilization of wool prices (which is partially achieved by the Wool Commission) may reduce the average annual net income (surplus) of growers and also of manufacturers of wool. The argument that the surplus of growers may be reduced is based upon Massell's extension of Oi's hypothesis. The possibility of falls in the surplus of manufacturers if wool prices are stabilized has a different basis. If wool prices are stabilized by buffer stocks, manufacturers find that their supplies are more variable than in the absence of controls. Consequently, they experience greater average annual cost if their marginal operating costs are increasing. Unless there are substantial revenue gains to processors, their surplus falls. The argument is also applicable to buffer stock schemes for other primary products.     

PRODUCT CHARACTERISTICS AND ARBITRAGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND WOOL MARKETS*

The physical characteristics of wool are important determinants of its spinning properties, yarn quality and end use. The degree to which wools from different countries of origin may be substituted has important implications for the domestic marketing policies of Australia and New Zealand. The hypothesis examined in this paper is that the differences in wool prices can be explained by differences in the physical characteristics of the wool and that objective measures of these characteristics allow for effective arbitrage between these markets. The alternative hypothesis is that premiums or discounts exist owing to country of origin. A hedonic price analysis was conducted on wool prices in Australia and New Zealand using a balanced sample of sale lot data from the 1986-87 selling season. In the year examined, there was no evidence of any price premiums associated with country of origin.     

COMBINATIONS OF BUFFER-STOCKS AND BUFFER-FUNDS FOR WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA*

In this paper a preliminary analysis is presented of a combined buffer-fund and buffer-stock as an alternative to a pure buffer-fund or a pure buffer stock for stabilising wool prices. The alternatives analysed are designed so that each provides the same prices to producers as did the Reserve Price Scheme over the period of analysis. Least-cost combinations of policy instruments are derived. The results show that there is considerable potential for cost savings to be made by combining buffer-fund and buffer-stock instruments.     

SHORT RUN PRICE CYCLES IN THE SYDNEY WOOL FUTURES MARKET

Evidence of systematic short run price movements in Sydney wool futures prices is presented. Traders' reaction to market uncertainty is suggested as a rationale of wool futures price periodicity. There is also a discussion of the significance of the cycle with regard to the efficiency of the market.     

THE NATURE OF PRICE MOVEMENTS DURING SINGLE SALES FOR THREE INDIVIDUAL WOOL TYPES SOLD IN SYDNEY

Price series for three wool types sold in Sydney are tested for the presence of serial correlation using the von Neuman ratio. The results indicate that it is unusual to find significant serial correlation between prices during a single sale. These results have implications for the use of various statistical techniques in wool marketing research and for buying tactics in the market generally.     

FUTURES PRICES AS FORECASTS OF COMMODITY SPOT PRICES: LIVE CATTLE AND WOOL*

In this paper the foundations on which the predictive interpretation of futures prices rests are discussed, and possible reasons for the differential predictive performance of futures prices as between different commodity markets examined. The predictive performances of futures, and spot prices themselves, are tested empirically, using Australian data for wool (a continuous inventory commodity) and finished live beef cattle (virtually a non-storable commodity), by means of instrumental variables estimation.     

COORDINATING PRODUCTION AND DISPOSAL OF COMMODITY STOCKPILES WITH APPLICATION TO AUSTRALIA'S WOOL INDUSTRY

Following the dismantling of a price-support program, a central bureaucracy is left with a commodity stockpile to dispose. It happened with wheat and feed grains in the U.S. in 1986 and wool in Australia in 1991. It soon may happen in Europe with grains, manufactured dairy products and other commodities which have supported prices. Obvious policies include privatising the stockpile, disposing of the stockpile by a central bureaucracy and quarantining the stockpile from the market. Each policy imposes constraints on disposal based, perhaps, on judgments of political acceptability to producers and government. In this article, optimal rules for production and disposal are derived and solved and a new policy is proposed. Then the model is applied to the disposal of Australia's wool stockpile. Results show that centralised disposal will almost always be preferred to privatisation of the stockpile. Centralised disposal is also preferred to quarantining the stockpile if interest rates are high, but quarantining is preferred if interest rates are low. Centralised disposal and quarantining are not optimal, however. Optimal production and disposal combines the efficiency of privatisation with the market power of centralised disposal. To achieve this, the property rights to the stockpile can be redefined using payment-in-kind certificates and individual transferable entitlements. The payment-in-kind certificates assign ownership of the stockpile to individual producers who then make both production and disposal decisions. The individual transferable entitlements allow the industry to produce efficiently and extend market power from the central bureaucracy to producers. For the Australian wool stockpile, optimal production and disposal would benefit the industry by an estimated $2.7 billion.     

STABILISATION AND RISK REDUCTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE*

Agricultural producers typically are faced with risk about the yields they will experience and the prices they will receive. Stabilisation schemes can spread risk and thereby reduce the risk faced by individual producers. The risk-reducing capacity of a scheme and the cost of risk reduction depend upon the design of the scheme. In particular, it is important to distinguish between risk and instability. A classification of scheme designs is presented to bring out the effects of various design types. Schemes for the wheat industry are given most attention.     

WOOL IN 1980*

Since the introduction of a reserve price scheme in 1970, the interest in wool marketing previously shown by agricultural economists has not been maintained outside the public service and the wool industry itself. Nor is the subject as divisive amongst wool growers with, in general, 'orderly marketing' now acceptable to all factions of wool growers. The history of wool marketing discussion in Australia is reviewed and some reasons for this changing climate of opinion are discussed. An attempt is made to assess the actual performance of the buffer stock scheme in the light of the academic literature of the 1960s.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

世界农产品价格波动的新态势:动因和趋势探讨

本文探讨了引发近年世界农产品价格新态势的主要动因,分析了影响农产品价格波动的短期因素和决定其长期趋势的动因.促成近年农产品价格暴涨的主要因素是用粮食生产能源创造了新的需求;而跨国公司控制市场、国际基金参与和投机农产品贸易放大了新需求的影响,并造成了价格前所未有的的急剧波动.虽然决定价格趋势的世界农业生产潜力并没有改变,但农业生产资料价格的上涨拉动生产成本攀升,如果继续扩张用粮食生产能源,世界农产品价格长期下降的趋势将逆转并继续在高住上运行.中国作为世界最大的农产品生产国和消费国,夯实农业生产基础,防止城市无度扩张占用耕地,提倡节约粮食,尤其是在从收获到消费整个环节中减少浪费粮食,同时提高农业贸易的经济效率,是应对世界农产品价格趋高和急剧波动的基本对策.     

Evaluating Agricultural Energy Policies Under Uncertainty: The Case of Electricity in South India

Farmers' attitude towards risk associated with the availability of energy inputs will influence their investment behavior and demand for energy inputs. In order to analyze policies that reduce the risk in energy availability, some modifications in methods are required. This study, using a mean-variance framework, demonstrates how cross-sectional data and time-series data on crop yields and prices can be used to analyze agricultural energy policies under uncertainty in a developing country context. It is argued that the farmers risk attitudes, their crop allocation behavior, changes in the demand for energy inputs and the stochastic relationship between various forms of energy inputs can be explained by the various energy constraints faced by them. Furthermore, using the same methods the impact of policies which affect these constraints, can be analyzed.     

Inflation,capital markets and the supply of beef

This paper puts forward an explanation for the negative elasticity of supply of beef found in many LDC's. As is explained by Jarvis (1974), the elasticity of supply of beef may be negative in the short run due to the dual role of cattle as both a capital and a consumption good. But in some LDC's, and especially in Latin America, one may find a long-run negative association between slaughter and prices, that cannot be explained by assuming shocks to slaughter are causing changes in prices. It is no coincidence that Jarvis' hypothesis itself was developed to explain developments in Argentina, a country with chronic high inflation. The paper argues that this long-run relationship cannot be explained by the Jarvis hypothesis, and offers an alternative hypothesis based on the demand for cattle as a hedge against inflation. The long-run negative association between slaughter and prices has been found in high inflation countries. High inflation combined with excessive regulation of capital markets cause the well known phenomenon of desintermediation. It is argued here that cattle plays a role in the inflation hedged portfolio that is then demanded. Therefore, with imperfect capital markets the supply of beef is affected by the demand for cattle as an asset, and this demand, in turn, is affected by inflation. This paper will only attempt to prove the link between imperfect capital markets and the supply of beef. The way inflation in a repressed capital market leads to an imperfect capital market is not addressed here, for reasons of brevity. The paper will develop a model that in the context of imperfect capital markets results in a negative elasticity of supply. The model will then be tested with Uruguayan data. Uruguayan data are very adequate to test the hypothesis because they cover both a period without inflation and a period of high inflation. The results support that cattle was used as an alternative to money holdings when inflation signified a big tax on the latter. Inflation therefore affected the demand for cattle, or, conversely, the supply of beef.     

AN OPTIMAL-CONTROL APPROACH TO STABILISING AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

In this paper, some aspects of the application of optimal-control techniques to wool industry price stabilisation are considered. It is not intended to provide a blueprint for the immediate adoption of optimal-control techniques in the management of wool price stablisation. Rather, the contribution is to the developmental and evaluative process involved in considering these techniques. A new econometric model of wool price and supply is also presented, since none of the existing models satisfied the requirements of the study.     

OPTIMAL WOOL FLOWS FOR MINIMIZATION OF TRANSPORT COSTS*

Movements of wool from grower to wool store in Queensland, N.S.W., Victoria, and South Australia are affected by differing State legislation and Section 92 of the Australian Constitution. Taking various arrangements within each State into account, average wool transport costs from wool production areas to selling centres are found. A linear programming technique is then applied to produce an optimal pattern of wool flows minimizing transport costs for all growers.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.     

PRICE EFFECTS OF WOOL MARKETING INNOVATIONS: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Conflicting claims are often made about the price effects of specific wool marketing innovations. In this paper, a regression model is used to estimate the price effects of two innovations, namely, computerised selling by separation and pre-sale, dense packaging of wool. The results are indicative of aggregate price differentials between wool sold via the 'normal' system and via an innovative system for the particular wool types and sale dates analysed. The extent to which price effects may be offset by differences in selling charges is also considered. In addition, some underlying reasons for price differences, where they exist, are proposed.     

A NOTE ON HIDDEN GAINS AND LOSSES OF BUFFER STOCK SCHEMES FOR WOOL

This note is concerned with one aspect of the methodology for examining the gains and losses of a buffer stock scheme for wool. It is shown that it is incorrect to debit interest due on capital tied up in stocks of wool without, at the same time, crediting a portion of this to the grower. The errors that can occur in calculations that do not take account of the charged time distribution of growers' receipts are demonstrated.