SOME DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS FOR THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

This paper begins with a summary of the current state of Community financing of the Common Agricultural Policy. A brief survey of the currently discussed options for change leads to the conclusion that feasible developments will involve extension of the use of existing instruments rather than wholesale reform. If agreement on such extensions cannot be reached, there is likely to be unplanned nationalisation of agricultural support expenditures. The economic impacts of three measures to cope with surplus production using existing policy instruments-price reductions, co-responsibility levies and supplementary levies-are analysed, as is a possible budgetary solution to the surplus problem-surplus contributions. The paper concludes with some remarks about the desirability of these various development options and the role of economists in the debate about CAP reform.     

UK GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE—IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT UNDER THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

The change in government expenditure which accompanies change in agricultural land use and output is an important parameter in current policy decisions. This change is estimated in this paper using a simple accounting model which recognises the diversity of support schemes in operation and the interaction between them. Use of the model is illustrated by estimating the effects of changes in beef, sheepmeat and cereals output under alternative assumptions about market conditions, yield levels and land classes affected. The paper concludes by discussing other ways in which the model might be used.     

ON THE GROWTH OF THE AGRICULTURAL FIRM*

Theoretical problems involved in the reconciliation of the assumption of constant returns to scale with determinacy of firm size are discussed with particular reference to Australian farms. Various techniques for examining changes in the size distribution of firms are examined and their use demonstrated. The work is stochastic rather than deterministic. B.A.E. sheep industry survey data is used and flock size is used as the measure of farm size. The results do not suggest that inequality in the distribution of farm sizes is increasing. Growth differs between flock sizes within the same region and for the same flock size between regions. Profitability seems to be relatively larger in the medium flock sizes.     

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALIAN AGRICULTURE

The relative importance of Italian agriculture in the EC, both in terms of net value added and of employment, has never been matched by a comparable impact on the CAP policymaking process. Mediterranean agricultural products in particular have been less favoured by the overwhelming common policy instrument of product price support, which has also a negative impact on the economy as a whole. The most relevant effects of the CAP are reviewed: the impact on resource allocation, including international income transfers, and the effects on the environment, as well as the effects on interpersonal income distribution. An evaluation of CAP is then made from different points of view: the likely perspective of present Italian farmers, a national perspective and an overall perspective, including the interests of non EC countries and future generations. Lower and more balanced price support, together with higher concern for structural and environmental policies especially in less favoured areas, are advocated.     

农业支持政策结构变迁的国际比较分析

[目的]在多哈回合谈判再次要求削减黄箱政策背景下,通过量化比较分析典型发达国家和地区在多哈回合谈判前后农业支持政策结构变化趋势,为中国农业供给侧结构性改革背景下农业支持政策改革提供方向借鉴。[方法]使用OECD农业政策评价指标对比分析欧盟、美国、日本和中国4个国家和地区农业支持力度、支持结构的变化趋势。[结果]发达国家和地区积极创新农业支持手段以替代市场价格支持,加快农业支持政策的市场化转变,强调支持政策与资源环境保护的交互作用,注重对农业知识和创新体系的资金投入。[结论]我国应持续加大对农业的支持力度,逐渐减少市场价格支持比重,创新支持工具并强化政策间的协调性,优化一般服务支持结构,加大对农业知识和创新体系的财政投入。     

A MODEL OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Several efforts have been made since 1980 to estimate the costs and benefits of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper summarises the approach and method adopted in developing one such effort, which aims to provide results at country, commodity and interest group level both for the CAP as a whole, and for changes in it. Economic analysis of the effects of price changes in the CAP is carried out with the use of direct and crossprice elasticities of supply and demand for sixteen major commodities, using base levels of production, consumption, and gross trade flows in each member state, along with rest-of-world data. A number of CAP instruments, such as subsidies, levies, quotas and ‘green’ exchange rates, are built into the calculations and can be varied, along with support prices, to produce new situations in domestic markets and in world price levels. Both financial (budgetary) and welfare (economic surplus) effects of such exogenous price changes can be calculated. Certain policy changes, such as a move to ‘free’ markets, involve endogenous calculation of equilibrium prices. Trend projections subject to a priori constraints are used to produce results for years beyond the extent of data currently available. The types of model run commonly carried out are discussed, along with several strategic judgments that became necessary in carrying out the research. Finally, questions concerning the future development and use of the model are addressed.     

THE COMBINATION OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND INPUT PRICE INDICES

Measures of agricultural incomes, and of the industry's productivity, are often derived by combining measures of the aggregate values and volumes of the industry's outputs and inputs. Combinations of price indices are less common but some have been published by Eurostat and are described in this paper. They are of two basic forms, one indicating the net effect of changes in output prices and input prices on the industry's value added and the other indicating changes in the industry's terms of trade. The paper examines the role, construction and interpretation of these measures and offers some cautions about their interpretation in the context of CAP reform.     

农业生产风险对区域经济的影响分析

[目的]农业作为国民经济的基础产业对区域经济的发展至关重要,两者之间存在相互影响和相互制约的耦合关系。文章通过对作用于农业生产活动的主要因子对区域经济的影响研究,以期筛选出两者相互作用的关键因子,为规避或降低农业生产风险、协调经济发展提供理论基础。[方法]通过选取作用于农业生产活动的36个作用因子,对农业生产风险因子对区域经济的影响程度进行综合评分,采用层次分析法分析各指标对农业生产与区域经济影响的重要程度。[结果](1)市场需求量、农民人均纯收入、农业机械化总动力、市场价格动态、农作物种类和面积、农药化肥施用量、农田有效灌溉面积、单位耕地面积粮食产量、干旱、温度、洪涝、农业机械自动化、交通运输条件、农业信息化、农业技术推广程度等是重要性排序为前15位的风险因子。(2)随着农业机械自动化、农业信息化和农业技术推广程度的进步,干旱、温度和洪涝等风险因子对农业生产造成的产量风险随之降低。而市场需求、市场价格动态等对农业生产的作用风险在扩大,特别是在区域经济发展不稳定、发展不平衡的情况下更为突出。(3)政府财政对农业的投入、投资的规模和结构以及对农产品价格和流通的干预则影响到农业生产经营、地区生产总值和GDP的增长速率;且农业资源利用程度、栽培环境的保护以及农业环境污染的保护和治理则是区域经济可持续发展的重点。[结论]通过测度不同评价指标对农业生产的影响程度,指出作用于区域经济的关键风险因子,对降低和规避农业风险,协调农业与区域经济的稳定、可持续发展具有重要意义。     

THE ELASTICITY OF AGGREGATE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY: ESTIMATES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Annual time series data for the period 1950-51 through 1975-76 are used to estimate the price elasticity of aggregate Australian agricultural supply using two methods. The short-run elasticity is estimated to be highly inelastic but it has been increasing through time. The preferred estimate of the long-run elasticity is in the relatively inelastic range and it has also been increasing through time. Some implications of these results for intersectoral resource flows and compensatory assistance, the cost-price squeeze, the effects of the mineral boom and monetary policy are discussed.     

欧盟和美国的农业生态补偿政策及启示

目的 欧盟和美国是世界上农业生态补偿政策体系较完善、实践丰富的地区,在农业生态保护上取得了积极的成效,其制度安排对于完善我国农业生态补偿制度具有重要借鉴意义。方法 文章采用文献分析法和对比归纳法,从政策目标、政策工具和法律保障三个方面比较分析了欧盟和美国现行的农业生态补偿政策及特征,并针对我国农业生态补偿模式的不足提出了若干完善我国农业生态补偿制度的建议。结果 欧盟和美国在政策中广泛采取正向激励的政策工具,依靠完备的法律体系建立起高度市场化的农业生态补偿模式,但在政策保障和管理评估上投入巨大,正在寻求更具成本效益的补偿方案。结论 我国的农业生态补偿存在政策碎片化、市场机制保障和农民参与度不足的问题,建议借鉴欧盟和美国农业生态补偿制度中协调农业和环境政策、完善绿色金融体系和提升政策透明度的做法来改善。     

THE REPRESENTATION OF RISK IN ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF SUPPLY: SOME OBSERVATIONS

The high correlation between many of the measures used to represent risk in econometric models of supply is demonstrated. A case is made for a very simple measure, the moving range, to be used to represent risk in these models.     

日本农业支持政策的最新趋势及启示

二战以来,日本农业分别经历了农业社会、工业化时代和全球化时代3个阶段的发展和变迁,其经验和教训对于中国农业发展具有一定的启示。研究对日本农业支持政策的演变及动向、特征与发展趋势以及目标机制和运作方式等方面进行了分析和探讨,结果显示:日本农业的变革涉及法律约束力、经营规模、农业贸易政策和国内支持等各个方面;日本农业的发展依赖于财政补贴,虽然其补贴强度呈下降趋势,但日本农业国内支持政策对保障农民收入、提高农产品竞争力仍具有重要作用。依据日本经验和教训提炼出的启示主要有:农户组织化经营要有计划地组织引导;农业经营规模的扩大要有序推动;农业剩余劳动力的就地消化要下大力气推动;国内支持政策应尽可能由纳税人负担。最后需要说明的是,降低农业支持水平与规模扩大的关系要根据实际情况合理辩证地处理。     

IMPACTS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICES

The emergence of the EC as a major exporter of cereals in the 1980s and the escalation of international agricultural trade confrontations emphasize the importance of understanding the effects of EC policy actions. Several important features of the EC wheat market are incorporated in an analytical and empirical model including imperfect substitutability in demand between imports and domestic supplies, the simultaneous import and export of wheat by the EC, the distinct impact of threshold versus intervention policy prices, MCAs, and the imperfect transmission between market and intervention prices. Results indicate that EC policies have a smaller impact on world price than found in previous studies.     

ESTIMATION OF SOCIAL WELFARE WEIGHTS IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY: THE CASE OF GREEK COTTON

This paper provides a welfare analysis of the Greek cotton market and obtains an estimate of the distributional weights implicit in the postulated welfare function of agricultural policy makers. The estimate of that weight depends, as might be expected, on the elasticity of supply and the difference between the support price and the market price. For the period covered, the welfare of Greek cotton producers was weighted about ten per cent more than that of taxpayers.     

新疆自治区农地流转规模效益与风险分析

中国的农业现代化必须建立在农业适度规模经营的基础上,农业生产走规模经营的路子也是现代化的需要。因此,农村土地承包经营权流转作为扩大农业经营规模、提高农业生产效益的手段不断被加以推广。新疆地区地域广阔,南北疆自然及社会经济条件差异大,因此不同区域农地流转条件和效果不同。本文在实地调研的基础上,将新疆的农地流转情况分为四大类型,统计分析农地规模,以探讨农地流转后是否能产生规模效益和农地流转的风险为主,运用DEA模型和案例比较的方法,对新疆地区农地流转的规模效益与风险进行分析。研究发现：以玛纳斯县为代表的北疆棉区棉农在农地转入后,农地总面积增加、户均每块地面积也增大,这表明农地流转使得植棉规模扩大并且产生规模效益,南疆则存在一定流转风险,主要分3类：生计风险、经营风险和交易风险。因此应分区分类指导流转。     

THE NORTHFIELD REPORT: STRUCTURAL POLICY AND AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY

A brief review of the Northfield Report on the Acquisition and Occupancy of Agricultural Land emphasises its general acceptance of the existing situation. An opportunity has been missed to develop more far reaching conclusions in respect of a policy area where scope for national initiative within the EEC remains. Although the Committee took an efficient agriculture as a principal objective its definition is not discussed and the only factual evidence quoted is the analysis by Britton and Hill based on the Farm Management Survey. The appropriateness of this is questioned and some alternatives are suggested. The Britton/Hill analysis does not give particular support for the Committee's advocacy of a family-based farm structure. The Committee sees value in a let sector but expects its decline to continue. Nationalisation of agricultural land as the most direct route back to tenancy is rejected. Yet there is a need for the continuity of ownership to avoid leakages through capital taxes and family transfers. Nationalisation may be infeasible and in its absence, an alternative would be to positively discourage continuing owner occupation and over time to develop an effective land tax to recover support costs.