Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect

We investigate the cross-sectional relation between industry-sorted stock returns and expected inflation, and we find that this relation is linked to cyclical movements in industry output. Stock returns of noncyclical industries tend to covary positively with expected inflation, while the reverse holds for cyclical industries. From a theoretical perspective, we describe a model that captures both (i) the cross-sectional variation in these relations across industries, and (ii) the negative and positive relation between stock returns and inflation at short and long horizons, respectively. The model is developed in an economic environment in which the spirit of the Fisher model is preserved.     

Capital Structure Theory and the Fisher Effect

This paper incorporates capital structure theory to model the response of nominal interest rates to expected inflation in a world with taxes. Within an otherwise common framework, the model includes Modigliani-Miller (MM) and Miller capital structure theory, as well as a variation of the Miller model with bankruptcy costs, developed by DeAngelo and Masulis. Within this framework, we derive an equation to predict the response of nominal interest rates under each capital structure hypothesis. With MM theory, our model predicts di_D/d_π value consistent with empirically observed ranges. With Miller theory, the predictions are inaccurate. With DeAngelo-Masulis, the predictions vary widely; the midpoint of the predicted range is less accurate than with Miller theory.     

A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect

We argue that the empirical failure of the Fisher effect found in the literature may be due to the existence of non-linearities in the long-run relationship between interest rates and inflation. We present evidence that, for the U.S. during the 1960–2004 period, the Fisher relation presents important non-linearities. We model the long-run non-linear relationship and find that an ESTR model for the pre-Volcker era and an LSTR model for the post-Volcker era are able to control for non-linearities and constitute long-run co-integration vectors. Monte Carlo evidence produces support for the hypothesis that non-linearities may also be responsible for the less than proportional coefficients of inflation usually found in the linear specifications.     

Taxes and the Fisher Effect: A Clarifying Analysis

Supply and demand functions for loanable funds are postulated for a no-inflation economy and equilibrium levels of saving, investment, and the interest rate are specified. Certainty and nondepreciating assets are assumed. An exogenous inflation rate is imposed upon this same economy and new equilibrium values for these same variables are established. The analysis is performed twice. The first time, a Modigliani-Miller [17] tax structure is assumed while the second analysis assumes a Miller-Scholes [15] tax structure. In both cases, inflation causes the nominal rate to increase by more than the inflation rate. The analysis is repeated assuming that investments live for one period and are then written off against taxable income at historical cost. In both tax structures, the level of saving and investment is a decreasing function of the inflation rate.     

对中国股票市场费雪效应及相关“波动性假说”的检验

本文利用我国1991年1月到2007年12月的月度数据对我国股票市场实际通货膨胀与股票收益的关系进行了实证分析,结果发现:与费雪效应相反,我国通货膨胀率与股票收益呈负相关关系,而且在对解释这种负相关关系的波动性假说(the Variability Hypothesis)的检验中,发现该假说能够解释我国股市股票收益与通货膨胀之间所呈现的这种负相关关系。     

管理者能力与资本市场稳定

管理者能力是管理者有效率地利用企业资源创造价值的能力。本文以企业股价大幅下跌风险为切入点系统分析了管理者能力对资本市场稳定的影响。研究发现:管理者能力能够显著抑制企业未来股价大幅下跌的风险,具有市场稳定效应。这种稳定效应主要体现在管理者隐藏坏消息动机较强和隐藏坏消息空间较大(内部缺乏大股东治理和外部制度环境水平较低)的企业。进一步研究发现,管理者能力主要通过降低企业经营风险和提高企业治理水平等路径缓解企业未来股价大幅下跌的风险。本文丰富了管理者能力和股价下跌风险的研究,还对如何合理利用企业家资源维护我国资本市场平稳健康发展提供了重要的现实证据。     

公允价值会计的顺周期效应与金融稳定

美国次贷危机以来,理论界和实务界围绕公允价值会计计量问题展开了激烈的争论,其中公允价值会计顺周期效应则是引发这场争论的起源。由于会计职能的客观反应性,使得公允价值会计在对资产的客观计量过程中,具有明显的、先天性的顺周期特征。公允价值会计的顺周期效应是诸多要素综合作用的结果,如果将金融危机的源头和动力直指公允价值会计本身是缺乏说服力的;在经济环境既定的条件下,顺周期效应的产生更多的是主体对利益追求的不理智,以及在利益疏导与危机遏制过程中的主观偏向造成,因此任何有关解决公允价值顺周期效应问题的措施,都不应只关注公允价值会计本身的改革。     

The Fisher Equation: A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach

This article reinvestigates the Fisher equation. Using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, it was found that there is a significant regime-switching effect concerning the impact of inflation on interest rates. Specifically, inflation is found to raise the interest rates and the effect becomes stronger in magnitude with inflation. However, the data do not provide evidence in support of the one-for-one Fisher effect. The evidence is robust to interest rates with different maturities and subsamples.     

税种划分对地方财政收入稳定效应的实证研究

在分析税种划分对地方财政收入稳定性影响的作用机理的基础上,利用1998-2007年数据,实证分析了增值税等四个地方财政收入主要来源对于地方财政收入稳定性的影响.总体回归结果显示:个人所得税、营业税占地方财政收入的比重对地方财政收入波动性构成正向解释,增值税占地方财政收入比重则对地方财政收入波动性构成负向解释;企业所得税划分方式及分享比例的变革对地方财政收入稳定性构成了显著影响.     

The Contribution of Fisher to Enterprise Income Theory: A Comment

Income is indeed a will-o'-the-wisp. One of its modem founding fathers was Irving Fisher, who emphasized the psychic experience of consumption. This paper discusses some aspects of Fisher's contribution to the continuipg debate on the elusive concept of income.
Le revenu est un vrai feu follet. Un de ses fondateurs actuels fut Irving Fisher qui fit valoir l'aspect psychique de la consommation. Ce papier examine certains aspects de l'intervention de Fisher dans les débats incessants dirigés sur I'insaisissable concept du revenu.
Das Ertragskonzept ist allerdings ein Irrlicht. Einer seiner modernen Stamniväter war Irving Fisher, der die pschische Erfahrung yon Verbrauch zum Ausdruck brachte. Diese Abhandlung besprict einige Aspekte des Fisher-Beitrages zur fortdauernden Debatte uber das schwer erfassbare Ertragskonzept.     

The Fisher puzzle,real rate anomaly,and Wicksell effect

We study the relationships between interest and inflation rates using a recursive equation approach that takes into account both Fisher and Wicksell effects. Extending previous work, a state–space representation is used to estimate time-varying ex post Fisher and Wicksell equation effects. We subsequently recover ex ante interest and inflation rate series. Using these ex ante rate series, we estimate an ex ante Fisher equation, including both time-varying intercept estimates of the ex ante real interest rates and time-varying Fisher coefficients. Our results for the U.S. and three other countries support the Fisher propositions after taking into account Wicksell effects.     

A multi-country test of the Fisher model for stock returns

This article provides a test of the Fisher model, linking expected stock returns and inflation, based on international data. Since the Fisher model is ‘universal’ and calls for a slope of 1 in any country, we improve the testing power by conducting a joint test over eight countries. The pooling of data for several countries seems to reduce the small-sample bias. We test the Fisher model, using an instrumental variable approach, for holding-period horizons ranging from 1–12 months. The Fisher model is not rejected at any horizon: however, the magnitude of the slope coefficient lends stronger support at long horizons. This study using multi-country panel data provides evidence corroborating the finding of Boudoukh and Richardson (1993) that the Fisher model holds at long horizons (5 years), using 180 years of US data.     

The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying

This paper explores the effect of time‐varying velocity on output responses to policies for reducing/stopping inflation. We study a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices in which we introduce time‐varying velocity. Specifically, we endogenize time‐varying velocity into the model developed by Ireland (1997) for analyzing optimal disinflation. The nonlinear solution method reveals that, depending on velocity, the “disinflationary boom” found by Ball (1994) may disappear even under perfect credibility and that early output losses may be much larger than previously thought. Indeed, we find that a gradual disinflation from a low inflation may even be undesirable.     

Public Information Arrival and the Fisher Effect in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey

We examine the impact of inflation on nominal stock returns and interest rates in Turkey's emerging economy, which has a moderately high, persistent, and volatile inflation rate. Empirical evidence indicates that Turkey's inflation increased more than nominal stock returns and interest rates, implying that real returns to investors declined during our sample period. Among the different sector indexes we study, the financials sector serves as the best hedge against expected inflation, and the Fisher effect appears to hold only for this sector. We also find that public information arrival plays an important role, especially in the stock market.     

实体杠杆对经济增长的影响研究——基于金融稳定的调节效应

本文以全球43个国家和地区2001-2020年的动态面板数据为研究样本,实证检验不同实体部门杠杆对经济增长的影响差异及作用机制。通过构造金融稳定指数,进一步论证金融稳定对实体杠杆与经济增长之间关系的调节效应。结果表明:实体杠杆与经济增长之间存在“倒U形”关系,不同部门杠杆对经济增长影响的“拐点”有所不同。机制检验发现,居民杠杆、企业杠杆和政府杠杆分别通过“消费”“投资”和“政府支出”渠道影响经济增长;金融稳定性的提升能够正向调节实体杠杆对经济增长的影响,提高实体杠杆对经济增长影响的“拐点”。上述结论对我国经济增长和杠杆调控具有一定政策启示。在经济运行过程中,应充分考虑各部门杠杆异质性,细化实体杠杆的调控方向,进一步优化杠杆结构,以期实现经济增长与金融稳定双重目标下的动态平衡。     

The Effect of Bank Ownership Concentration on Capital Adequacy,Liquidity, and Capital Stability

We explore the effects of ownership concentration on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Our analysis focuses on East Asian countries because these nations have successfully implemented the Basel standards and demonstrate a high degree of regulatory convergence. For the period from 2005 to 2009, we analyzed the relation between ownership concentration and capital adequacy (Basel II) and find that an increase in ownership concentration by one standard deviation results in an improvement in capital adequacy by 7.64 %. Although Basel III does not go into effect until 2013, we retroactively apply the standards for capital stability on our sample. We find that ownership concentration would have been a significant determinant of capital stability. While at lower levels of ownership concentration, an increase in concentrated ownership would have reduced capital stability; at higher ownership levels, greater ownership concentration would have increased capital stability. We also find that concentrated ownership improves banks’ liquidity. Further, the recent financial crisis does not appear to change the fundamental associations among ownership concentration, capital adequacy, and liquidity.     

新会计准则对银行业稳定的影响——基于央行风险监测的视角

加强银行业风险监测是维护金融稳定的核心。新会计准则的的实施促进银行业加强风险管理、强化信息披露,有利于央行风险监测,同时也影响到银行资本充足率、流动性、安全性和盈利性等监测指标,对央行风险监测提出了新的挑战。