The Information Signaling Hypothesis of Dividends: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

This paper uses cointegration and causality tests to study the temporal behavior of dividends and earnings at the individual firm level. We find that, for a sample of 143 non‐utility firms, approximately one‐fifth of the firms exhibits a temporal relationship between dividends and earnings that is consistent with the information signaling hypothesis of dividends. In the case of 72 utilities, about a third exhibit dividend policies that are consistent with the signaling notion of dividends. Further examination of firm characteristic differences between signaling and non‐signaling firms shows that, in the case of non‐utility firms, signaling firms tend to be smaller, have a lower growth rate of total assets, and have a higher leverage ratio. In the case of utilities, we find no major differences in firm characteristics between signaling and non‐signaling firms.     

The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests

The current paper investigates the unbiasedness hypothesis of Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) prices in the freight over-the-counter (OTC) forward market trades. Cointegration techniques are employed to examine the hypothesis. The results indicate that: FFA prices one and two months before maturity are unbiased predictors of the realised spot freight rates for all investigated shipping routes; three months FFA prices for panamax Pacific routes are unbiased predictors of spot prices, while FFA prices for panamax Atlantic routes are found to be biased predictors of spot prices. This diverse evidence suggests that the validity of the unbiasedness hypothesis depends on the specific characteristics of the market under investigation, the selected trading route and the time to maturity of the contract. JEL classification G13, G14, C32     

Fisher Hypothesis Revisited: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

This paper investigates the validity of the Fisher hypothesis using data from thirtythree developed and developing countries. Conventional cointegration tests do not provide strong evidence for a relation between nominal interest rates and inflation. Therefore, we use fractional cointegration analysis to test the long-run relationship between the two variables. The results indicate that a long-run relation between nominal interest rates and inflation does not appear for most countries in the sample when the conventional cointegration test is employed. However, fractional cointegration between the two variables is found for a large majority of countries, implying the validity of the Fisher hypothesis. The results also indicate that the equilibrium errors display long memory.     

Empirical Tests of the Proxy Hypothesis

The proxy hypothesis states that the negative relationship between inflation and stock returns is spurious and really only proxies for the positive relationship between stock returns and real variables. Previous testes of the proxy hypothesis have used actual values instead of forecasted values for the real activity variable. Using only forecasted variables, our results do not support the proxy hypothesis.     

International Trade and Accounting Policy Choice: Theory and Canadian Evidence

The accounting policy choice literature has identified many factors which have been shown to be useful in explaining cross-sectional variation in the accounting methods used by public companies. One relationship which has been relatively unexplored in this literature is the potential effect of international trade on accounting choice. This study proposes that international trading activities may create incentives for firms to choose income increasing accounting policies. This proposition was tested by examining the depreciation choices of a sample of Canadian firms. Results suggest that importers were more likely to choose income increasing accounting methods than non-importers, while exporting was not found to be related to this accounting choice. These diverging results may be caused by the declining value of the Canadian dollar (relative to the US dollar), which tends to benefit exporters, but is of detriment to importers.     

An Intertemporal International Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Empirical Evidence

We extend Campbell's (1993) model to develop an intertemporal international asset pricing model (IAPM). We show that the expected international asset return is determined by a weighted average of market risk, market hedging risk, exchange rate risk and exchange rate hedging risk. These weights sum up to one. Our model explicitly separates hedging against changes in the investment opportunity set from hedging against exchange rate changes as well as exchange rate risk from intertemporal hedging risk. A test of the conditional version of our intertemporal IAPM using a multivariate GARCH process supports the asset pricing model. We find that the exchange rate risk is important for pricing international equity returns and it is much more important than intertemporal hedging risk.     

International Portfolio Investment: Theory, Evidence, and Institutional Framework

At first sight, the idea of investing internationally seems exciting and full of promise because of the many benefits of international portfolio investment. By investing in foreign securities, investors can participate in the growth of other countries, hedge their consumption basket against exchange rate risk, realize diversification effects and take advantage of market segmentation on a global scale. Even though these advantages might appear attractive, the risks of and constraints for international portfolio investment must not be overlooked. In an international context, financial investments are not only subject to currency risk and political risk, but there are many institutional constraints and barriers, significant among them a host of tax issues. These constraints, while being reduced by technology and policy, support the case for internationally segmented securities markets, with concomitant benefits for those who manage to overcome the barriers in an effective manner.     

Capital Structure Theory and the Fisher Effect

This paper incorporates capital structure theory to model the response of nominal interest rates to expected inflation in a world with taxes. Within an otherwise common framework, the model includes Modigliani-Miller (MM) and Miller capital structure theory, as well as a variation of the Miller model with bankruptcy costs, developed by DeAngelo and Masulis. Within this framework, we derive an equation to predict the response of nominal interest rates under each capital structure hypothesis. With MM theory, our model predicts di_D/d_π value consistent with empirically observed ranges. With Miller theory, the predictions are inaccurate. With DeAngelo-Masulis, the predictions vary widely; the midpoint of the predicted range is less accurate than with Miller theory.     

实际汇率、通货膨胀与巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应假说——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验

利用中国30个省区的数据检验了中国经济相容于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的程度,结果表明:各省区的相对劳动生产率的差异与相对价格的关系符合巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应理论所描述的特征。对各省区的相对劳动生产率与相对价格进行逐个的协整检验,结果表明:有23个省区的数据符合理论所预示,这也从一个角度提供了各省区通货膨胀率长期存在差异的解释。进一步研究发现,生产率的差异与各省区的实际汇率之间存在较弱的长期协整关系。     

Option Valuation with Information Costs: Theory and Tests

In this paper, the valuation of stock and index options is analyzed in the context of Merton's model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. It is possible to derive a partial differential equation for options in such a context. The derivation gives more understanding of the way an option's future payoff is discounted to the present. In order to estimate some of its parameters, the model is calibrated to market prices. It is tested using market prices and the authors' valuation formula. It is found that model prices are not significantly different from market prices, especially when out-of-the-money and deep-in-the-money options are considered. The model gives an explanation to the “strike bias” and the “smile effect.” Simulations of models based respectively on stochastic volatilities and gamma processes, are in accordance with the findings in this paper concerning biases in the Black and Scholes model, especially for pricing deep-in-the-money and out-of-the-money options. Even if the estimation method has its drawbacks, the costs of gathering and processing information regarding the option and its underlying asset play a central role in explaining the biases observed in the Black and Scholes model and help also the understanding of the U-shaped curve known as the smile of volatilities.     

银行与企业交叉持股的理论与依据——基于国际比较的研究

本文通过文献回顾分析了世界主要国家银行与企业交叉持股的经济后果。从银行持有企业股份的角度而言,一方面银行持有企业股份能降低委托代理成本,另一方面银行同时作为股东和债权人会产生利益冲突。从企业持有银行股份的角度看,企业持股银行最直接的后果是关联贷款。但是,关联贷款既可能是掏空银行的手段,也可能是因为银行对企业股东更为了解,所以发放关联贷款。本文的结论表明,银行与企业交叉持股既有积极的一面,也要严密防范金融风险。本文的结论对于促进产融结合具有积极的意义。     

The Dividend Substitution Hypothesis: Australian Evidence

In a perfect capital market firms are indifferent to either dividends or repurchases as payout mechanisms, suggesting that the two payout methods should be perfect substitutes. Empirical research at the single country level, as well as cross country studies, provide evidence that dividends and repurchases act as substitutes (the dividend substitution hypothesis), and that the tax treatment of dividends versus capital gains affects this relation. Australia, which operates under a full dividend imputation system, has two types of repurchases: on‐ and off‐market. On‐market repurchases are taxed as capital gains while off‐market repurchases comprise a large dividend component carrying valuable tax credits. Australia thus provides a natural setting to investigate how the tax treatment of proceeds affects the dividend substitution hypothesis. Dividend substitution is found to exist for on‐market repurchases but not for off‐market repurchases, thus providing further support for the idea that the tax treatment of proceeds affects the substitutability of repurchases and dividends.     

Empirical Tests of the Fundamental-Value Hypothesis in Land Markets

The land-price boom of the 1970s followed by the bust of the 1980s generated considerable interest in the determination of land prices and the study of whether those prices reflect fundamental value. In this article, three techniques are used to examine the fundamental-value hypothesis in Iowa and Nebraska agricultural land markets. Duration dependence tests indicate that land markets are not affected by rational expectations bubbles. Conversely, Markov chain and time-reversibility tests suggest that land prices depart from fundamental value due to the existence of nonrandom price changes and asymmetric land price patterns. The results of this research should be viewed as a complement to the existing body of knowledge in our quest to enhance our understanding of agricultural land-price movements.     

Testing the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for the New Member and Candidate Countries of the European Union: Evidence from Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks

This paper investigates the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) for the eleven Central and East European transition countries and three market economy countries, Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey. Unlike previous studies on PPP, this study uses Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests that incorporate structural breaks in the data series. The findings indicate that in cases of one and two structural breaks, for a U.S. dollar-based real exchange rate series, there is little evidence supporting the validity of PPP. For a deutsche mark-based real exchange rate series, for the cases of both one and two breaks, there is evidence of stationarity of real exchange rates for eight sample countries, which is consistent with PPP. The results also indicate that the estimated half-life of a shock to the real exchange rate ranges from 1.25 (15.05 months) to 2.72 (32.72 months) years across countries. The empirical findings may provide direction for policy makers to coordinate monetary policies for the process of European monetary integration.     

The International Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Disaggregated Consumer Price Data

We estimate the contribution of international common factors to the dynamics of price inflation rates of a cross-section of 948 CPI products in four OECD countries: United States, Germany, France, and United Kingdom. We find two main results. First, on average, and at least in the sample 1991–2004, one international common factor explains between 15% and 30% of the variance of consumer prices (depending on the transformation applied to the data). Given the high level of disaggregation of our panel, this estimate is best viewed as a lower bound for the contribution of international factors to inflation dynamics. Second, we find a strongly positive and statistically significant relationship between exposure of consumer inflation to international shocks and trade openness at the sectoral level. The latter result holds regardless of whether the original data are expressed in local as opposed to common currency.     

Rates of Return on Art Objects, the Fisher Hypothesis, and Inflationary Expectations

After surveying the evolution of the major methodologies in inflation hedging, this study presents a unique methodology that uses principal component factor analysis to separate the effects of variability in the real rate of return from the nominal rate of return. This approach allows the effects of both anticipated and unanticipated inflation on rates of return to be estimated more precisely. This study finds that art objects perform well in terms of average real rates of return and that the market, though not perfect, integrates anticipated inflation into the rates of return. However, unanticipated inflation is very often negatively related to the rates of return.     

Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data

This paper explores the empirical relevance of banking market structure on growth. There is substantial evidence of a positive relationship between the level of development of the banking sector of an economy and its long-run output growth. Little is known, however, about the role played by the market structure of the banking sector on the dynamics of capital accumulation. This paper provides evidence that bank concentration promotes the growth of those industrial sectors that are more in need of external finance by facilitating credit access to younger firms. However, we also find evidence of a general depressing effect on growth associated with a concentrated banking industry, which impacts all sectors and all firms indiscriminately.     

International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data

We present a unique empirical analysis of the properties of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) using an international data set of aggregate and disaggregate sectoral inflation. Our results from panel time‐series estimation clearly indicate that sectoral heterogeneity has important consequences for aggregate inflation behavior. Heterogeneity helps to explain the overestimation of inflation persistence and underestimation of the role of marginal costs in empirical investigations of the NKPC that use aggregate data. We find that combining disaggregate information with heterogeneous‐consistent estimation techniques helps to reconcile, to a large extent, the NKPC with the data.