THE IMPACT OF FARM AND PROCESSING RESEARCH ON THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY*

An equilibrium displacement model of the world wool top industry is used to estimate the returns to the Australian wool industry from productivity improvements in farm production, in top making and in textile manufacturing. The returns to the industry from these different types of research and development are sensitive to the extent of substitution possibilities between Australian wool and other inputs used by the wool processing and textile industries but it appears that research resources have to be much more efficient in off-farm activities for the Australian wool industry to receive benefits similar to those from farm research activities.     

THE INVENTORY SCHEME FOR AUSTRALIAN WOOL

A model put forward by the Australian Wool Corporation to simulate the behaviour of the wool market under an inventory scheme is described. Some deficiencies in the model are pointed out and suggestions are made for alterations to improve the model's performance.     

SUPPLY RESPONSES IN THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN POTATO INDUSTRY

The potato industry in South Australia is characterised by very unstable prices. One hypothesis for this instability is that potato growers' acreage responses follow a cobweb pattern, that is, a one year lag of acreage to price. This hypothesis is tested, together with a two year lag and a distributed lag. The distributed lag model seems the most satisfactory and gives a short-run elasticity of acreage to price of 0.36 and a long-run elasticity of 1.09. An alternative to the lagged price hypothesis is the "constant cash return" hypothesis which postulates that potatoes are grown to provide a certain cash income to permit farm development. This explanation of acreage response only seems relevant in the dairying and fat lamb areas of the State.     

PRODUCT CHARACTERISTICS AND ARBITRAGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND WOOL MARKETS*

The physical characteristics of wool are important determinants of its spinning properties, yarn quality and end use. The degree to which wools from different countries of origin may be substituted has important implications for the domestic marketing policies of Australia and New Zealand. The hypothesis examined in this paper is that the differences in wool prices can be explained by differences in the physical characteristics of the wool and that objective measures of these characteristics allow for effective arbitrage between these markets. The alternative hypothesis is that premiums or discounts exist owing to country of origin. A hedonic price analysis was conducted on wool prices in Australia and New Zealand using a balanced sample of sale lot data from the 1986-87 selling season. In the year examined, there was no evidence of any price premiums associated with country of origin.     

WOOL POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES: ITS DIRECT IMPACT ON AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

Australian apparel wool exports to the United States are less than they might be because of two protective policies of the U.S. government: a fixed tariff and a system of direct price.support payments to U.S. wool producers. Dismantling these policies, though difficult, could mean $10 million to $21 million worth of additional Australian wool sales to the United States, over 1966 levels. Most of the increase would come from tariff cuts. Such amounts are worth negotiating for but would not solve the industry's problems.     

INPUTS,OUTPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY

Tornqvist quantity indexes of output and input are computed for the period 1952/53 to 1976/77 from Australian Sheep Industry Survey data. The computation includes estimating the annual service flow from durable inputs. Total productivity in the sheep industry is estimated to have increased by 2.9 per cent per annum during this 25-year period. While the ratio of capital employed per unit of labour has increased, materials, services and livestock have been the inputs for which the quantity used has increased most rapidly. On the output side, there has been a move towards greater diversification with both crop and cattle enterprises on 'sheep properties' increasing in relative importance.     

ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

A MODEL OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ORANGE GROWING INDUSTRY*

A model of the Australian orange growing industry to explain changes in plantings, removals, the number and age composition of trees and orange production is developed and estimated. Most of the variation in plantings is explained by the expected profitability of growing oranges, the current stocks of bearing and nonbearing trees, and removals of trees last year. Estimates of the elasticities of response of plantings and production to price changes are low and there are long time lags. An illustrative application of the model projects future developments in the industry for alternative assumptions about the profitability of growing oranges.     

THE EFFECTS OF FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES ON AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

The implication of price stabilisation under a volatile exchange rate is an increasingly volatile price denominated in a foreign currency. Time series analysis is used to model the relationship between exports, prices and AWC stocks. This model is used to assess the distribution of the impact of exchange rate shocks on prices denominated in local and foreign currencies. It is found that the AWC has significantly reduced the impact of exchange rate shocks on domestic prices.     

PRODUCTION STRUCTURE AND THE AUSTRALIAN SAWMILLING INDUSTRY*

This paper examines the production structure of the Australian sawmilling sector over the period 1950-51 to 1984-85 using a translog cost function. The results show that the sawmilling industry is best represented by a production function which does not have any restrictions on functional form. Inputs, including capital, labour, materials and energy, are generally found to substitutable for one another, although the degree of substitutability is small. There have been economies of scale in the Australian sawmilling industry, and technological change has been capital and energy-using, and labour and materials-saving.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A PROFIT FUNCTION APPROACH*

Profit function models for the three major regions in which the Australian sheep industry operates are specified and estimated. The supply response elasticity estimates are made using a normalised quadratic functional form and time series cross-sectional data. Elasticity estimates, together with their confidence intervals, are presented for the pastoral, wheat-sheep and high rainfall zones. In general, the supply response elasticity estimates derived in this study are lower than those previously reported for studies in which little or no account has been taken of the multi-product nature of Australian agriculture.     

EXITS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY CAUSES AND PREDICTIONS

An analysis of data from Bureau of Agricultural Economics surveys established that farms that left the dairy industry in the 1970s were generally smaller than average, less profitable, and more likely to be those from which cream was still being delivered in cans. In addition, it was found that the probability of exit seemed to be little affected by movements in the relative prices of dairy products and beef. Predictive models which should prove useful in estimating future rates of exit from dairying were derived. Use of one of the models on 1979–80 data suggests the exit rate from the industry should be easing.     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK AND CROPPING INDUSTRIES: A STUDY OF INTENTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS*

Most of the supply elasticity estimates reported for Australian agriculture are derived from equations estimated using time series data and incorporating ad hoc assumptions about price expectations. The authors' aim is to compare previously obtained supply elasticity estimates with those derived using theoretically more acceptable survey data on both producers' intentions and price expectations. Surveys were conducted in three regions in N.S.W., namely, the Southern Tablelands, the South-West Slopes and a portion of the Western Division centred on Cobar. The results of the research show that there are no major differences between the supply elasticities derived using the traditional time series approach and those obtained using the survey data. This finding is reassuring, given the cost of collecting survey data.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RESEARCH INTO TRADED GOODS: THE CASE OF AUSTRALIAN WOOL

The final incidence of benefits and costs of wool industry research and development (R&D) undertaken in Australia depends greatly on the nature of the R&D and the way it is funded. Using preferred parameter values, the Australian share of benefits from farm-level R&D is 58 per cent (falling to 40 per cent if there is 50 per cent adoption of the new technology by producers overseas); the Australian shares of benefits from wool-processing R&D ere 24 per cent (topmaking) and 27 per cent (textile-processing). Under current funding arrangements, an Australian wool tax provides about one-eighth of total R&D funds, a matching government grant provides another one-eighth, and other public sector funds make up the remaining three-quarters. Under these arrangements, the final incidence of the costs is 95 per cent on Australians (mostly taxpayers at large), and the wool industry bears only 12.5 per cent of the costs of its R&D. One implication is that a wool tax alone is a more equitable and efficient means of financing wool-industry R&D than the current arrangements.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

THE STABILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY STABILIZATION SCHEME

The wheat stabilisation scheme has been operating for almost two decades. In this article quantitative estimates are made of the effects of the scheme upon the stability of prices and incomes and the distribution of income over the period 1948-49 to 1965-66.     

AN OPTIMAL-CONTROL APPROACH TO STABILISING AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

In this paper, some aspects of the application of optimal-control techniques to wool industry price stabilisation are considered. It is not intended to provide a blueprint for the immediate adoption of optimal-control techniques in the management of wool price stablisation. Rather, the contribution is to the developmental and evaluative process involved in considering these techniques. A new econometric model of wool price and supply is also presented, since none of the existing models satisfied the requirements of the study.     

WOOL IN 1980*

Since the introduction of a reserve price scheme in 1970, the interest in wool marketing previously shown by agricultural economists has not been maintained outside the public service and the wool industry itself. Nor is the subject as divisive amongst wool growers with, in general, 'orderly marketing' now acceptable to all factions of wool growers. The history of wool marketing discussion in Australia is reviewed and some reasons for this changing climate of opinion are discussed. An attempt is made to assess the actual performance of the buffer stock scheme in the light of the academic literature of the 1960s.