Investigation of Directional and Functional Relationships of Australian Dollar Exchange Rate,Steam Coal Export,and Steam Coal Price

The interesting finding in this article is that the Australian coal exporter's loss, which occurs due to a strong Australian dollar, is less than the profit from increasingly higher prices of Australian steam coal. For this reason, Australian steam coal exporters choose to export more when the price is high. The empirical results of this analysis confirm that for each one cent increase in Australian dollar value against the U.S. dollar, the Australian steam coal price increases by 0.8182 U.S. dollars and for each additional one million tons export of Australian steam coal, the Australian steam coal price increases by 1.752 U.S. dollars.     

我国粮食安全:基于美元贬值视角下的分析

由美元贬值引起的农资生产资料价格上涨、替代生物能源需求增加、国际投机资本流动等派生因素对粮食价格的直接、间接推动作用,根据我国粮食现状,现阶段应采取敦促美元升值、提高粮食单产、提高科技对粮食贡献率,以及密切关注国内粮食期货价格波动等,努力保证我国粮食安全。     

The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.     

黄金白银投资比较及其价格影响因素分析

通过分析目前黄金与白银各自发展的空间优势,本文研究了影响黄金白银价格的几大重要因素,以及黄金价格与白银价格的线性关系,提出影响它们价格的主要因素包括石油价格、美国名义有效汇率、美国长期利率和美国消费者价格指数、美元指数,以及世界黄金储备会对黄金和白银价格的影响,并得出其各自较好的持有途径,旨在为投资决策者提供参考。     

我国房价变动与进口贸易的关系:基于GMM与主成分因子的分析

本文利用中国1991至2009年的月度住宅销售平均价格数据,在广义矩方法(GMM)的基础上,重点引入基于时间序列数据的主成分因子分析模型进行实证研究,发现进口总值与商品房屋平均销售价格呈正相关关系,且进口总值的变动是房价变动的格兰杰原因,这可能与生产性厂商更多地选择投资房产有关。主成分因子分析结果表明,房价和其他四个解释变量组成的线性回归模型,可以很好地解释进口总值的变动。     

The Retail Travels of the U.S. Greenback: A Comparative Study of Currency Substitution Along the U.S.-Canadian and U.S.-Mexican Borders

This currency substitution study explores the extent of retail firm-level U.S. dollar acceptance in Canada and Mexico. Employing a stratified random sampling approach of retail business in the border region, results demonstrate that all Mexican firms (N = 300/300) and nearly all Canadian (N = 257/261) firms accept the U.S. dollar in retail transactions. Of greater interest is the difference between firms in the two countries in how acceptance of the U.S. dollar is operationalized. On average, U.S. dollar sales of Canadian border firms comprise just 3.4% of total sales whereas U.S. dollar sales of Mexican firms encompass 23.7% of total sales. Our results also indicate a stark contrast as to the effective exchange rate for U.S. dollar acceptance— Canadian firms typically charge a premium (2.1% on average) while 69.3% of Mexican firms transacted business at a discount (?0.8% on average). Additional analyses further refine the currency substitution distinctions between Canadian and Mexican firms in the sample including a logistical regression which reveals significant differences as to firm-level predictors of U.S. dollar acceptance (whether at a discount or premium).     

The impact of world oil price shocks on the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate

This article investigates whether and how changes in the world oil price affect the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate. We applied vector autoregression and vector error correction models for the real exchange rate, world oil price, monetary differential, government spending, and productivity differential between the two countries. Our results demonstrate that a surge in the world oil price will lead to an appreciation of the Canadian dollar in the short and long term. Product differentials and U.S. government spending have a negative impact on the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate, and Canadian government spending leads to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.     

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.     

The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade

By specifying a model of differential risk-bearing by import demand and export supply sides of the market for traded goods, the theoretical impact of exchange risk on both equilibrium prices and quantities is analyzed. For several empirical cases of 1965–1975 U.S. and German trade it is found that exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant impact on prices but no significant effect on the volume of trade. These price effects support previous survey results on the currency denomination of export contracts, namely that with the exception of some U.S. imports, most trade is largely denominated in the exporter's currency.     

Transmission of external price disturbances and the composition of trade

This paper focuses on the role of trade composition in the transmission of external price disturbances. It is shown that the effects of an increase in the price of imports on domestic prices and the trade balance crucially depend on the cross price elasticity of demand in the case of final goods and the elasticity of substitution between factors in the case of intermediate goods. In the case of an input such as oil, where the elasticity of substitution between imported and domestic factors of production is less than unity, an increase in its price will give rise to a balance-of-trade deficit but will have ambiguous effects on domestic prices.     

Commodity Markets and Commodity Mutual Funds

Fundamental economic factors—market demand and supply conditions—provide the most consistent explanation for trends in commodity prices from 2004 to 2011. This paper presents empirical evidence that the rise and fall of commodity prices on a monthly basis can be strongly linked to the value of the U.S. dollar and the world business cycle—in particular, to the strength or weakness in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia. Despite concerns raised by some policymakers that increased commodity index investment (the financialization of commodities) has driven commodity price movements, numerous academic studies have concluded that index-based investing has not moved prices or exacerbated volatility in commodity markets in recent years. An examination of weekly and monthly net flows into commodity mutual funds reveals that these flows have little or no effect on the overall growth rate of commodity prices. In particular, weekly flows into commodity mutual funds do not lead to future commodity price changes. These results are consistent with academic papers that find little or no impact of commodity index investors on commodity prices in individual markets. The paper concludes by briefly discussing three key factors that illustrate why flows into commodity mutual funds cannot explain commodity price movements.     

中美纺织品与服装贸易:从MFA到ATC——基于总量、价格和质量的分析

本文力图通过描述性统计和构建评价指数的方法,分别从贸易总量、进口价格和贸易品质量的角度,考察《纺织品与服装协议》在过渡期内对中美纺织品与服装贸易的影响。结论认为,2002年协议第三阶段的实施是两国纺织与服装产品贸易发展的分水岭;全面取消配额导致了进口价格和贸易品质量不同程度的下降。对此,文章有针对性地提出了今后合理应对中美纺织品贸易争端的若干政策建议。     

The impact of U.S. devaluations on the stock prices of multinational corporations

In recent years, multinational corporations (MNCs) have faced several currency realignments including the U.S. dollar devaluations, and the revaluations of the Japanese yen and German mark. These adjustments precipitate defensive measures such as hedging by MNCs. While the strategies and tactics of such firms in adapting to currency realignments have received increasing attention in the literature [4,5,6,7,8], the question of how the stock prices of MNCs react largely has been ignored. This question is important both from the investors' viewpoint of investment timing and from the viewpoint of MNCs' managers relative to their abilities to use outside financing before and after realignment, as well as to the proper timing of such financing.This article investigates the behavior of stock prices of multinational corporations during two U.S. devaluations. Also, a model is presented which isolates the international component of the MNC's stock prices from its domestic component.     

Import Demand Elasticity and Exporter Response to Anti-Dumping Duties

ABSTRACT

This article investigates exporting firms’ behavior following the imposition of anti-dumping (AD) duties. AD duties tend to increase the prices of imported goods via a mechanism different from any other trade barrier because the AD duty size is endogenously dependent on import prices. Our model accounts for this feature and demonstrates that exporters are more likely to adjust their price upward when they face a less elastic demand. The theoretical predictions are supported empirically by relating product-level U.S. import demand elasticities and exporting firms’ reactions to duties inferred from a dataset on U.S. AD investigations from 1980 to 1995.     

Student preferences for domestic-made or imported apparel as influenced by shopping habits

Information regarding consumer awareness of imports has been an ongoing concern of the textile and apparel industries. This study was undertaken to provide additional information about attitudes of apparel imports from the viewpoints of college students. The results support those of earlier studies for the most part. Data analysis, in contrast to other studies, showed no clear preference toward either domestic or imported apparel. However, there was concern and strong support for the U.S. textile and apparel industries. Most students indicated that they would purchase domestic apparel over imported apparel to help the U.S. economy.     

Cotton Subsidies,the WTO,and the ‘Cotton Problem’

Following an 8‐year‐long dispute over cotton subsidies, Brazil and the US signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 21 April 2010, effectively paving the way for settling the dispute. This paper argues that cotton subsidies are just the tip of the iceberg while a number of other, perhaps more important, issues require attention and, indeed, political will. Chief among them is the persistent divergence between cotton prices and the prices of other agricultural commodities which reflects, for the most part, the large supply response by China and India, a direct consequence of conversion to biotech cotton varieties in these (and other) countries. Such a response – which kept cotton prices low, compared to other commodities – imposes a competitive disadvantage to nonusers of biotech cotton. The paper also highlights two additional constraints faced by the cotton‐producing countries of West and Central Africa, namely the structural inefficiencies of their primary processing industries (also known as ginning) and the appreciation of the CFAf against the US dollar. Without downplaying the importance of subsidy elimination, this paper concludes that these impediments should receive high priority in the policy agenda.     

Vehicle currency use in international trade

We explore the major driving forces for currency invoicing in international trade with a simple model and a novel dataset covering 24 countries. We contrasts a “coalescing” effect, where exporters minimize the movements of their prices relative to their competitors', with incentives to hedge macroeconomic volatility and transaction costs. The key determinants of invoice currency choice are industry features and country size, with some role for foreign-exchange bid-ask spreads. The coalescing effect also goes a long way to explaining the well-known dominance of the dollar. Trade flows to the United States are predominantly invoiced in dollar, as foreign exporters face competition with U.S. firms. The use of the dollar in trade flows that do not involve the United States reflects trade in homogeneous products where firms need to keep their price in line with their competitors'.     

Vehicle currency use in international trade

We explore the major driving forces for currency invoicing in international trade with a simple model and a novel dataset covering 24 countries. We contrasts a “coalescing” effect, where exporters minimize the movements of their prices relative to their competitors', with incentives to hedge macroeconomic volatility and transaction costs. The key determinants of invoice currency choice are industry features and country size, with some role for foreign-exchange bid–ask spreads. The coalescing effect also goes a long way to explaining the well-known dominance of the dollar. Trade flows to the United States are predominantly invoiced in dollar, as foreign exporters face competition with U.S. firms. The use of the dollar in trade flows that do not involve the United States reflects trade in homogeneous products where firms need to keep their price in line with their competitors'.     

Effect of Exchange Rates and Gasoline Prices on US Imports of Japanese Automobiles

We analyze the effects of gasoline prices and exchange rates on Japanese automobile imports to the United States between 1970 and 2004. We test the relationships before, during, and after the Voluntary Restraint Agreement placed on Japanese imports between 1981 and 1988. We also control for general demand for automobiles and domestically manufactured Japanese vehicles. As expected, we found that demand for Japanese imports is positively correlated with the price of gasoline. Before 1988 the demand for Japanese imports contributed to a strengthening of the yen. But after, a positive relationship between the yen-for-dollar exchange rate and imports has prevailed.     

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation

This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of a Chinese yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar. The estimated effects on U.S. output and employment are modest. Positive effects on U.S. output are roughly offset by negative effects from a decrease in Chinese output and an increase in U.S. import prices.