中国教育补贴率的变动趋势-基于教育个人收益率的分析

本文构建了一个包含人力资本外部性的内生经济增长模型,并在不同的筹资模式下,探讨了最优教育补贴率的确定及其比较静态分析。与以往的研究不同,本文给出的最优教育补贴率将随着教育个人收益率(即明瑟收益率)的上升而下降。在此基础上,我们考察了近年来中国教育个人收益率的变动趋势,进而对同一时期教育补贴率变动趋势的合理性做出了解释和评价。     

STAGGERED PRICE CONTRACTS AND INFLATION PERSISTENCE: SOME GENERAL RESULTS*

Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on staggered price contracts with rational expectations can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This article presents some general results about this class of models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation. However, they fail to explain a key feature of reduced‐form Phillips‐curve regressions: The positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. It is shown that staggered price contracting models instead predict that the coefficients on these lag terms should be negative.     

THE AD-AS MODEL AND ITS SOLUTIONS: SOME NEW RESULTS IN A DISEQUILIBRIUM PERSPECTIVE*

This paper discusses the logical foundation and the solutions of a microfounded aggregate demand … aggregate supply model under the disequilibrium hypothesis. We first show that a) the latter hypothesis is the only one ensuring model consistent expectations and that b) price predetermination, more than price flexibility, should be embodied in an AD-AS framework. Then we develop a full AD-AS scheme, both under excess supply and excess demand for labour. We prove that in the latter case no well defined equilibrium exists. Finally, we discuss stability and perform some comparative statics exercises.     

THE CYCLICALITY OF SEPARATION AND JOB FINDING RATES*

This article uses CPS gross flow data to analyze the business cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability. Cyclical changes in the separation rate are negatively correlated with changes in productivity and move contemporaneously with them, whereas the job finding rate is positively correlated with and tends to lag productivity. Contemporaneous fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50% of fluctuations in unemployment, depending on how the data are detrended. This figure becomes larger when dynamic interactions between the separation and job finding rates are considered.     

CAPACITY UTILISATION IN THE LONG RUN: SOME FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS

The variability of long-run capacity utilisation has to be consideredas an expression of the determining role played by aggregatedemand in the process of growth. This paper discusses the modelproposed by Serrano in which such a determining role is apparentlyreconciled with the condition of normal utilisation of existingcapacity in the long run. It is shown that Serrano's conclusionslie on the hypothesis of the constancy of the growth rate ofautonomous demand, an assumption which seems to originate froman erroneous interpretation of the property of ‘relativepersistence’ of ‘normal’ magnitudes. The paperargues that if that assumption is abandoned, the autonomy ofaggregate demand necessarily shows itself through the variabilityof capacity utilisation in the long run as well as in the shortrun.     

EFFECTS OF STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES AND VOLATILITY ON CONTINGENT CLAIMS*

We investigate the effects of stochastic interest rates and the volatility of the underlying asset price on contingent claim prices including futures and options prices. The futures price can be decomposed into the forward price and an additional term; the options price can be decomposed into the Black‐Scholes formula and several additional terms by applying the asymptotic expansion approach of the small disturbance asymptotics developed by Kunitomo and Takahashi (1995, 1998, 2001, 2003a, 2003b). The technical method is based on a new application of the Malliavin‐Watanabe Calculus or the Watanabe‐Yoshida Theory on Malliavin Calculus in stochastic analysis. We illustrate our new formulae and their numerical accuracy.     

NOMINAL BONDS AND INTEREST RATES*

In this article, I integrate the microfoundation of monetary theory with the model of limited participation to analyze the competition between nominal bonds and money. The market for government nominal bonds is centralized and Walrasian, whereas the goods market is modeled as random matches. The government imposes a legal restriction that requires all government goods to be purchased with money but not with bonds. By contrast, private agents can exchange between themselves with both money and bonds. I show that an arbitrarily small legal restriction is sufficient to prevent matured bonds from being a medium of exchange. I also analyze the effects of monetary policy with and without the legal restriction. Some of those effects differ significantly from traditional monetary models.     

VOTING AND THE INTERTEMPORAL SELECTION OF TAX RATES IN A MACRO-ECONOMY*

This paper presents a macroeconomic model where governments are motivated both by their ideological preference for alternative fiscal policies that vary in their short run and long run consequences and by their reelection prospects. I prove that a sequential equilibrium exists in which moderate incumbents compromise their ideologies in order to get reelected, while extreme governments forego reelection but tie the hands of their successors. The view implied by this model is that incumbent governments, in order to get reelected, do not ideologically differentiate themselves from one another since such behavior is likely to result in loss of office. Alternatively, governments that are either subsequently not reelected or are lame ducks pursue ideologically preferred policies since they are less constrained by the electorate.