连续时间模型下的寿险需求和中国寿险市场的相关实证研究

本文以我国寿险市场为背景，通过建立包括保险决策的资产选择的动态连续时间模型，给出了保险产品价格成本效应对寿险需求影响的理论分析，并通过具体的数据分析讨论了模型的意义。本文还实证研究了目前我国保险市场一些主要的保障型寿险产品的附加保费因子及其对我国居民保险需求的影响。这在某种程度上解释了我国目前保障性保险需求不足的现象。同时本文实证分析的结果显示我国的保障性保险还远没有满足我国居民的潜在需求，并针对这种现象提出了相关的政策建议。     

我国寿险需求模型及实证分析

一、影响寿险业需求因素 分析保险需求是指在一定时间内，一个国家或地区有支付能力和保险利益的社会组织及个人对保险经济保障的需求量。它是整个社会的保险产品消费水平的基础，也是保险业赖以发展的基础。保险业的健康发展为社会安定、经济发展提供强人的支持和保证。本文试图从影响寿险保险业发展因素着手．定量加以分析。     

中国企业保险需求实证研究

现代企业保险需求理论通过研究企业保险行为对市场价值的影响来解释企业购买保险的动机。然而该理论是建立在企业理性人假设上,忽略了企业人格化的特征,文章在企业人格化假设基础上构建了企业保险需求函数,并通过调查问卷获取的数据,运用计数模型对文章中构建的模型进行实证检验。实证结果表明企业的风险状态、企业决策者意愿、企业规模、企业对人力资本重视度、保险市场规范程度、保险公司风险管理优势、保险产品丰富程度、保险的税收优惠和保险商品本身价格对企业保险需求具有显著性影响。     

中国寿险需求实证分析

本文对国内外的寿险需求分析研究进行了简单综述，在此基础上抽取全目30省市1998—2003年的数据．采取面板数据模型就收入、通货膨胀、社会保障、银行利率、死亡率等寿险需求影响因素与保费收入相关性作了Granger因果性检验分析。     

我国寿险需求的实证研究

文章基于1997年-2004年我国内地30个省市的面板数据,从宏观视角实证分析了收入水平、经济发展、教育、死亡率、抚养率、社会保障和居民储蓄对寿险需求的影响。实证结果表明,收入水平、教育和老年抚养率对一个地区的寿险需求均有显著的正向影响。     

包含股票的金融资产组合中家户投资型寿险需求研究

在连续时间动态模型框架下,本文探究收益率随机波动的投资型寿险需求在包含股票的金融投资组合中的变化规律。模型假设投资型寿险保费分为寿险纯保费和投资性保费两部分,其中寿险纯保费关注基本死亡保障,而投资性保费关注财富增值。在一个包含无风险资产储蓄和风险资产股票的金融资产组合中,探究投资型寿险需求随时间变化的规律。股票与投资性保费均假定遵循一维几何布朗运动,两者相关但存在竞争关系。使用比较动态方法以及数值模拟方法,研究发现:初始财富、投资型寿险收益率对投资型寿险总需求有正向影响,而市场利率、风险厌恶系数等因子产生反向影响,死亡率影响效应不确定;投资型寿险与股票的相关性对投资型寿险需求产生显著影响。     

我国非寿险需求模型及实证分析

文章在全面分析影响非寿险需求的主要因素基础上建立了我国非寿险需求的动态计量经济模型。实证的结果表明,我国非寿险需求具有很强的连续性,非寿险业自身、GDP的增长以及市场经济体制改革都是决定我国非寿险需求的显著性因素。文章最后对实证结果给出了经济解释,并探索了相应的政策涵义。     

中国保险需求对经济增长影响的实证研究

本文以1980—2011年中国保险业与经济增长数据为样本,对保险需求与经济增长序列进行了协整分析,进一步运用分位数回归方法实证分析了不同经济发展水平下保险需求对经济增长的影响,并基于2004—2011年省际面板数据将保险需求细分为寿险需求和非寿险需求,运用面板数据模型实证分析了不同经济发展水平下寿险需求和非寿险需求对经济增长的影响。本文的结果表明:保险需求促进国民经济增长,但促进的程度有待于提升,2002年后,随着保险业的迅速发展,保险需求对国民经济的影响程度显著增大;不同经济发展水平下保险需求对经济增长的影响程度存在差异;寿险需求与非寿险需求在经济发展水平中等及以下地区对经济增长的影响均大于经济发展水平较高地区,并且二者对经济增长的影响程度存在差异。     

中国城镇家庭寿险需求影响因素的实证分析

目前,国内对于保险需求的实证研究主要集中在宏观领域,而微观领域多以理论研究为主。利用CHIP数据从微观角度对城镇家庭寿险需求的影响因素进行实证研究,是对目前微观领域实证研究稀缺现状的有益补充。首先进行理论分析,然后建立计量经济学模型进行回归分析,研究表明：家庭储蓄和家庭收入越多,寿险需求越大,所以提高城镇家庭储蓄和收入更能促进寿险的需求;东部地区城镇家庭的寿险需求大于中西部地区城镇家庭的寿险需求,所以缩小东部及中西部地区的收入差距能促进寿险需求;户主及其配偶双方都受过高等教育的城镇家庭对寿险的需求高于其他家庭,这说明受教育水平对寿险需求有显著影响。     

不同时间假设下的期权博弈模型研究综述

分析投资项目的离散型及连续型期权博弈评价方法,梳理基于不同时间假设的期权博弈理论研究分析框架,研究期权博弈在投资和研发项目(R&D)、企业并购、电力投资及房地产投资等方面的最新进展,最后指出未来的研究方向。     

CIGARETTE TAXATION AND DEMAND: AN EMPIRICAL MODEL

This paper evaluates the impact of taxation on cigarette consumption, using a recursive model that includes a retail price equation and a dynamic demand equation. The analysis is based on panel data for 11 western states over the period 1967–1990. Results indicate that cigarette consumption is price-sensitive, with a demand elasticity of –0.40 in the short run and –0.48 in the long run. A tax increase, such as that imposed in California in January 1989, can have a strong effect of reducing cigarette consumption by between 11.2 percent in the short run and 13.4 percent in the long run. These results support the theory of rational addiction and the hypothesis that, as a part of their oligopoly behavior, the tobacco companies often do raise end-market prices by more than the amount of the increase in tax rates .     

交易效率、工业化与城市化-一个理解中国经济内生发展的理论模型与经验证据

本文将交易效率引入工业化、城市化的一般均衡模型,推导出交易效率与工业化和城市化关系的基本理论预言,并运用因素分析计量方法提取出代表中国1997至2002年的交易效率指数,检验这一理论设想在中国的适用性。结果显示,交易效率的改进为工业化、城市化提供了好的支撑,但工业化对城市化的贡献却不显著,这意味着中国的工业化在很大程度上仍然是政府推动型的,而城市化和经济发展则更多地表现为市场推动型。     

我国上市公司资产重组的行业分析

本文首先从工业行业运行状况的角度,定量化地研究了我国资本市场中兼并频发行业的成因。研究发现,工业行业的集中度偏低是其中最主要的原因。本文还以各个兼并频发行业内发生资产重组的上市公司为研究对象,发现我国不同的行业,资本市场中资产重组的方式有所不同。同时资本市场中行业资产的重组对于不同行业的产业结构调整有着不同的积极或消极的作用。这表明我国资本市场上的资产重组将导致我国工业各行业的竞争力呈分化状态。     

A HYBRID DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT DEMAND WITH AN APPLICATION TO PERSONAL COMPUTERS

In this article, I consider a new discrete choice model of differentiated product demand that distinguishes a brand‐level differentiation from a product‐level differentiation. The model is a hybrid of the random coefficient logit model of Berry et al. (Econometrica 63 (1995), 841–90) and the pure characteristics model of Berry and Pakes (International Economic Review 48 (2007), 1193–1225) and describes markets where firms offer multiple products of different qualities under the same brand name. I compare the hybrid model with existing models using data on personal computers. Using the estimates of the hybrid model, I also provide empirical evidence that firms reposition their brands in a postmerger market.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CHILD CARE DEMAND IN SWITZERLAND

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper analyzes the demand of Swiss families for child care facilities. A choice experiment is used to study the effects of the facilities' characteristics as well as socio-economic factors on the selected child care mode. The experimental data are analyzed using a discrete choice model with multinomial logit specification. The results suggest that the demand for extra-familial day care could be considerably higher than that observed from the actual choices constrained by insufficient provision of affordable day care. The price, access, and the quality of service as well as parents' income and education have important impacts on the choice of the mode of care.     

AN EMPIRICAL STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL OF THE HOUSING MARKET*

This article specifies and estimates a computationally tractable stationary equilibrium model of the housing market. The model is rich and incorporates many of its unique features: buyers’ and sellers’ simultaneous search behavior, heterogeneity in their motivation to trade, transaction costs, a trading mechanism with posting prices and bargaining, and the availability of an exogenous advertising technology that induces endogenous matching. Estimation uses Maximum Likelihood methods and Multiple Listing Services data. The estimated model is used to simulate housing market outcomes when (a) the amount of information displayed on housing listings increases and (b) real estate agent’s commission rates change.     

LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY RISK EXPOSURE: MARKET EVIDENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Life insurance company (LIC) risk exposure increased during the 1980s while capital ratios declined. State guarantee funds that exist to handle policyholder's losses in the event of LIC failure can create incentives for excessive risk taking, just as the federal deposit insurance system did for savings and loan associations. This paper examines the relationship between stock market risk and LIC risk exposure. A sample of 44 LICs revealed that stock market risk is positively related to financial leverage as well as to differences in asset mix. This finding confirms that market data can help identify LICs with greater risk exposure .     

THE DECISION TO DEMUTUALIZE: AN EXPLORATION OF THE DRIVERS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE WITHIN THE AUSTRALIAN LIFE INSURANCE MARKET

The restructuring of the financial landscape that has occurred in the last three decades, has led to a reassessment of co‐operative models of organization. An outcome of this process has been the demutualization of mutual financial organizations. Using a case study approach this paper analyses the pressures on mutual structures encountered by Australian mutual life insurers. Such an approach provides a number of insights into the way in which firms adjust to changes in regulatory and competitive environments. It is concluded that a number of exogenous and endogenous forces combined to drive the process of organizational change.     

RIDGE ESTIMATORS FOR PROBIT REGRESSION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO LABOUR MARKET DATA

In this paper we propose ridge regression estimators for probit models since the commonly applied maximum likelihood (ML) method is sensitive to multicollinearity. An extensive Monte Carlo study is conducted where the performance of the ML method and the probit ridge regression (PRR) is investigated when the data are collinear. In the simulation study we evaluate a number of methods of estimating the ridge parameter k that have recently been developed for use in linear regression analysis. The results from the simulation study show that there is at least one group of the estimators of k that regularly has a lower mean squared error than the ML method for all different situations that have been evaluated. Finally, we show the benefit of the new method using the classical Dehejia and Wahba dataset which is based on a labour market experiment.