Information content of volatility spreads

This study reexamines the determinants of volatility spreads and suggests a new forecast of future volatilities. Contrary to earlier volatility forecasts, the newly introduced forecast is applicable when investors are not risk‐neutral or when underlying returns do not follow a Gaussian probability distribution. This implies that the method is consistent with the presence of risk premia for other risks such as volatility risk. Using S&P 500 index options, we show that the new volatility forecast outperforms other volatility forecasts including risk‐neutral implied volatility and historical volatility in two aspects. First, the new forecast is superior to other estimates in terms of forecasting errors for future realized volatilities. Second, it is an unbiased estimator of future realized volatilities. This is shown using an encompassing regression analysis. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:533–558, 2010     

Robust estimation of risk-neutral moments

This study provides an in-depth analysis of how to estimate risk-neutral moments robustly. A simulation and an empirical study show that estimating risk-neutral moments presents a trade-off between (a) the bias of estimates caused by a limited strike price domain and (b) the variance of estimates induced by microstructural noise. The best trade-off is offered by option-implied quantile moments estimated from a volatility surface interpolated with a local-linear kernel regression and extrapolated linearly. A similarly good trade-off is achieved by estimating regular central option-implied moments from a volatility surface interpolated with a cubic smoothing spline and flat extrapolation.     

Welfare versus market access: The implications of tariff structure for tariff reform

We show that the effects of tariff changes on welfare and import volume are fully characterised by their effects on the generalised mean and variance of the tariff distribution, implying two “cones of liberalisation” in commodity price space. Because welfare is negatively but import volume positively related to the generalised variance, the cones do not intersect, which poses a policy dilemma. We present a new radial tariff reform rule, which implies new results for welfare- and market-access-improving tariff changes. Finally, we show that generalised and trade-weighted moments are mutually proportional when the trade expenditure function is CES.     

通货膨胀对我国股市条件波动影响的统计检验

将通货膨胀因素引入到GARCH模型的方差方程中,以检验通货膨胀、通货膨胀变动以及通货膨胀不确定性对股市条件波动的影响。实证分析的结果表明,在统计意义上,通货膨胀及其变动对股市收益的条件波动几乎不会产生影响,而通货膨胀不确定性对股市波动的影响是显著的。这一结果意味着管理好通胀预期,降低通货膨胀不确定性,引导公众形成合理的通胀预期对促进股市平稳发展具有重要意义。     

Complete Models with Stochastic Volatility

The paper proposes an original class of models for the continuous-time price process of a financial security with nonconstant volatility. The idea is to define instantaneous volatility in terms of exponentially weighted moments of historic log-price. The instantaneous volatility is therefore driven by the same stochastic factors as the price process, so that, unlike many other models of nonconstant volatility, it is not necessary to introduce additional sources of randomness. Thus the market is complete and there are unique, preference-independent options prices.
We find a partial differential equation for the price of a European call option. Smiles and skews are found in the resulting plots of implied volatility.     

The kidnapping of Europe: High-order moments' transmission between developed and emerging markets

The paper proposes a semi-nonparametric methodology consistent with dynamic conditional correlations and high-order moments to jointly estimate transmissions in volatility, skewness and kurtosis in highly volatile scenarios among developed and emerging markets. As a by-product of the SNP-VSK model, we measure co-movements between conditional correlations and high-order moments, and tail dependence. Our results depict European markets as full receivers and North American and Asia-Pacific as transmitters of high-order moments' risk. The analyses also indicate that conditional correlation is positively correlated to volatility and kurtosis and negatively correlated to skewness, and that conditional kurtosis between markets is high and positive.     

No‐arbitrage implies power‐law market impact and rough volatility

Market impact is the link between the volume of a (large) order and the price move during and after the execution of this order. We show that in a quite general framework, under no‐arbitrage assumption, the market impact function can only be of power‐law type. Furthermore, we prove this implies that the macroscopic price is diffusive with rough volatility, with a one‐to‐one correspondence between the exponent of the impact function and the Hurst parameter of the volatility. Hence, we simply explain the universal rough behavior of the volatility as a consequence of the no‐arbitrage property. From a mathematical viewpoint, our study relies, in particular, on new results about hyper‐rough stochastic Volterra equations.     

The Effect of Corporate Governance on Firm Stock Volatility in Asia

The authors examine whether firm corporate governance (CG) contributes to lower stock-return volatility. Using the panel data of 1,252 public listed firms in Asia across 11 countries for 15 years, the authors document international evidence that CG has a stabilizing effect on firm stock-return volatility. The authors further examine whether increasing information efficiency, reducing foreign exposure, and a lower cost of capital contribute to the stabilizing effect of firm CG on stock-return volatility. The result implies that better CG will only reduce stock-return volatility for firms that have less foreign exposure.     

THE MULTIVARIATE supOU STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL

Using positive semidefinite supOU (superposition of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type) processes to describe the volatility, we introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial data which is capable of modeling long range dependence effects. The finiteness of moments and the second‐order structure of the volatility, the log‐ returns, as well as their “squares” are discussed in detail. Moreover, we give several examples in which long memory effects occur and study how the model as well as the simple Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type stochastic volatility model behave under linear transformations. In particular, the models are shown to be preserved under invertible linear transformations. Finally, we discuss how (sup)OU stochastic volatility models can be combined with a factor modeling approach.     

Aid,Aid Volatility and Sectoral Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Finance Matter?

This article examines the impact of aid and its volatility on sectoral growth by relying on panel dataset of 37 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 1983–2014. Findings from the system-generalized methods of moments show that, while foreign aid significantly drives sectoral growth, aid volatility deteriorates sectoral value additions impacting heavily on non-tradable sectors with no apparent effect on the agricultural sector. The deleterious effect of aid volatility on sectoral value additions in SSA is weakened by a well-developed financial system with significant impact on the tradable sector. Evidently, development of domestic financial markets enhances aid effectiveness.     

A TEST OF A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM STOCK OPTION PRICING MODEL

An empirical version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985a) call option pricing model is derived, assuming execution price uncertainty in the options market. the pricing restrictions come in the form of moment conditions in the option pricing error. These can be estimated and tested using a version of the method of simulated moments (MSM). Simulation estimates, obtained by discretely approximating the risk-neutral processes of the underlying stock price and the interest rate, are substituted for analytically unknown call prices. the asymptotics and other aspects of the MSM estimator are discussed. the model is tested on transaction prices at 15-minute intervals. It substantially outperforms the Black-Scholes model. the empirical success of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model implies that the continuous-time interest rate implicit in synchronous transaction quotes of 90-day Treasury-bill futures contracts is an-albeit noisy-proxy for the instantaneous volatility on common stock. the process of the instantaneous volatility is found to be close to nonstationary. It is well approximated by a heteroskedastic unit-root process. With this approximation, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model only slightly overprices long-maturity options.     

The price effects of index additions: A new explanation

We further explore a new volatility explanation for the permanent price effect of index additions, using a sample of changes in the Nikkei 225. Additions to the index elicit significant price hikes, which tend to be permanent despite temporary price reversals. Meanwhile, investor awareness and demand increase, while price volatility decreases for the added stocks, contrary to the higher price volatility for stocks added to the S&P 500. Moreover, multivariate regression analysis demonstrates that the lower volatility contributes significantly to the permanent price boost, a new explanation; so does the higher investor awareness, consistent with the prior literature.     

Volume and Volatility Surrounding Quarterly Redesignation of the Lead S&P 500 Futures Contract

During the last weeks before each quarterly expiration of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 futures, the bulk of trading volume begins to shift away from the next‐to‐expire (nearby or lead) contract toward the second‐to‐expire (next out) contract. At some point, the exchange formally redesignates the next out as the new lead contract, and the next out replaces the nearby in the futures pit location designated for the lead contract. This event invariably results in a dramatic increase (decrease) in trading activity in the next out (nearby) contract. This shift in relative trading volumes is due to the microstructure of the futures exchange rather than new information or underlying volatility conditions. The event thus offers us an opportunity to examine how volatility responds to noninformation‐based exogenous changes in volume. This study examines the volatility behavior of nearby and next out S&P 500 futures contracts on the 10 days surrounding quarterly redesignation of the lead contract. Our model measures possible changes in (a) the level of volatility and/or (b) the association between volume and volatility after redesignation of the lead contract. Results indicate that when we account for the association between volume and volatility, the higher volume lead contract consistently experiences a lower level of volatility. This outcome supports the view that the larger population of liquidity providers who trade the more active lead contract fosters greater market depth and lower volatility. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1119–1149, 2001     

波动率风险溢酬:基于香港和美国期权市场的研究

文章运用方差互换合约的思想,从香港恒生指数和美国S&P500指数现货和期权的价格中提炼出无模型波动率风险溢酬,并对其特征进行了考察。研究结果表明,香港股市和美国股市中的波动率风险的确被定价,且风险溢酬显著为负,说明两市投资者均体现出风险厌恶。但同时我们也发现两个市场投资者的行为模式存在差异。此外,香港和美国市场的波动率风险相关度很高,且存在明显的溢出效应。     

Smiling less at LIFFE

This study investigates the structure of the implied volatility smile, using the prices of equity options traded on the LIFFE. First, the slope of the implied volatility curve is significantly negative for both individual stocks and index options, and the slope is less negative for longer‐term options. The implied volatility skew can be described by risk‐neutral skewness and kurtosis, with the former having the first‐order effect. Moreover, the implied volatility skew for individual stock options is less severe than for index options. Finally, the relationship between the real and risk‐neutral moments implied in option prices is significant. The results indicate that, for equity options traded on the LIFFE, the slope of the implied volatility skew is flatter than that on the Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE). © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:57–81, 2008     

Why Doesn't the Black‐‐Scholes Model Fit Japanese Warrants and Convertible Bonds?

In this paper, we investigate the systematic departures of traded prices of Japanese equity warrants and convertible bonds from their theoretical Black–Scholes values. We briefly consider transactions costs and the dilution adjustment as potential explanations of the discrepancy. However, our major focus is on shifts in volatility of the prices of the underlying stocks as a function of the stock price changes; such shifts are not taken into account in the Black–Scholes values. We assume that the pseudo‐probability distributions of prices of stocks of cross‐sections of companies which are roughly similar in size are identical. This simple assumption, which can be generalized, enables us to infer the implied probability distribution and binomial tree for stock price changes using the Derman and Kani (1994), Rubinstein (1994) and Shimko (1993) approach. The cross‐section of warrant prices implies an inverse volatility smile and a positively skewed probability density for stock prices. Rubinstein's identifying assumptions generate an implied binomial tree in which the relative size of up‐steps and down‐steps, and thus volatility, changes systematically as stock prices change. We briefly consider potential explanations for the implied behaviour, and for the difference in the smile pattern between index options and the warrants and convertibles.     

Factors explaining movements in the implied volatility surface

This article explores the relationship of changes in the S&P 500 index implied volatility surface to economic state variables. Observable variables can explain some of the variation in implied volatility, with the majority of explanatory power from index returns. Although the contemporaneous return is most important for explaining changes in short dated volatility, the path of the index is important for explaining changes in long dated volatility. Other variables also display statistically significant relations to volatility changes. Shocks to the Nikkei 225, short‐term interest rates, and the corporate/government bond yield spread are correlated with small, systematic changes in implied volatility. The results suggest a multifactor model for market volatility, with factors other than index returns adding negligible explanatory ability. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:915–937, 2002     

股市收益和波动性长期记忆的国际比较——基于V/S的经验证据

现有研究运用经典和修正R/S分析探讨我国股票市场的长期记忆效应。本文运用更为稳健的V/S分析,对比研究上证股市和另外7个国家和地区的股票市场,分别诊断各股市日收益和周收益、及三种典型度量的收益波动的长期记忆效应。研究表明:股市日收益和周收益序列都不存在显著的长期记忆;三种典型度量的收益波动普遍存在显著的长期记忆;日收益波动比周收益波动的长期记忆更显著。     

A No‐Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

The no‐arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long‐memory features of the range‐based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi‐parametric framework. In particular, the no‐arbitrage condition is used to derive a long‐run relationship between volatility measures and to justify the use of a fractional vector error correction model (FVECM) to study their dynamic relationship. The out‐of‐sample forecasting superiority of FVECM, with respect to alternative models, is documented. The results highlight the importance of incorporating the long‐run equilibrium in volatilities to obtain better forecasts, given the information content in the volatility of futures prices. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:77–102, 2013     

Effects of monetary policy news on financial assets: Evidence from Brazil on a bivariate VAR-GARCH model (2006–17)

The impact of news releases related to the inflation targeting regime on the financial market is analyzed by estimating a bivariate VAR GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model. We use daily data, from January 2006 to May 2017, of stock prices index (IBOVESPA), exchange rate (BRL/USD) and interbank deposit rate (DI360). We developed a positive and negative news index to measure the impact of news releases based on Caporale et al. (2016) and Caporale et al. (2018). Although the literature on the subject is vast, this paper fills relevant gaps in three ways. First, we investigate the bidirectional relationship between monetary policy related news releases and the behavior of asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis in Brazil. Second, we consider the relationship between the second moments of the variables of interest, using the conditional volatility as a proxy for uncertainty. Third, we provide a time series approach to measure the effect of macroeconomic related news releases on financial asset returns. The results indicate there are mean spread effects from news for the exchange rate and the Brazilian stock index: (i) the GARCH-in-mean parameter is statistically significant for positive and the difference of news for the DI360; (ii) monetary policy and external shocks are statiscally significant as expected with exception of the external shocks for the Brazilian stock index; and (iii) there are volatility spillovers and changes of this volatility after the crisis for stock index and DI360.