Advertising,quality and sales

This paper investigates claims that firm-specific effects in advertising-sales models can be attributed to a positive correlation between advertising and product quality. Using a standard Koyck transformation on an unbalanced panel dataset of UK firms, the implied long-lasting effects of advertising disappear when firm-specific effects are taken into account. This conclusion is robust to various econometric approaches. However, when the firm-specific effects are retrieved, they are found to correlate strongly with mean advertising. There is no discernible link between the firm-specific effects and whether a firm perceives quality to be an important form of competition in its market. The results give no support to the idea that advertising affects sales through associated product quality. They are consistent with the persistence of advertising within firms over time.     

Housing sales in urban Beijing

In the housing market, new properties sometimes experience delays before they are sold. Such delays reflect the preferences of buyers in respect of the homes’ characteristics. Therefore, it is important for managerial purposes to identify the causes of housing sales delays. After analysing the delays in sales of housing in Beijing City, China, the principal finding of this study is that delays are largely explained by the dwellings’ characteristics and location. Policy implications of the research findings, particularly those related to means of reducing the delays, are discussed.     

Corruption for sales

This paper investigates the impact of corruption on foreign affiliates’ sales of German multinationals that differ in their level of experience in the foreign market. We exploit the panel dimension of a detailed firm-level dataset to show that more experienced firms are less likely to suffer from the costs related to corruption. Controlling for persistent and unobserved factors at the country and firm levels, we show that corruption reduces unambiguously the sales of new entering firms, while having no impact on the sales of incumbents.     

Building vintage and electricity use: Old homes use less electricity in hot weather

This paper studies whether electricity use in newer or older residential buildings rises more in response to high temperature in a region of Southern California. Peak electricity demand occurs at the highest temperatures which are predicted to increase due to climate change. Understanding how newer buildings differ from older buildings improves forecasts of how peak electricity use will grow over time. Newer buildings are subject to stricter building energy codes, but are larger and more likely to have air conditioning; hence, the cumulative effect is ambiguous. This paper combines four large datasets of building and household characteristics, weather data, and utility data to estimate the electricity–temperature response of different building vintages. Estimation results show that new buildings (1970–2000) have a statistically significantly higher temperature response (i.e., use more electricity) than old buildings (pre1970). Auxiliary regressions with controls for tiered electricity prices, number of bedrooms, income, square footage, central air conditioning, ownership, and type of residential structure partially decompose the effect. Though California has had extensive energy efficiency building standards that by themselves would lower temperature response for new buildings, the cumulative effect of new buildings is an increase in temperature response. As new buildings are added, aggregate temperature response is predicted to increase.     

Investment coordination in network industries: the case of electricity grid and electricity generation

Liberalization of network industries frequently separates the network from the other parts of the industry. This is important in particular for the electricity industry where private firms invest into generation facilities, while network investments usually are controlled by regulators. We discuss two regulatory regimes. First, the regulator can only decide on the network extension. Second, she can additionally use a “capacity market” with payments contingent on private generation investment. For the first case, we find that even absent asymmetric information, a lack of regulatory commitment can cause inefficiently high or inefficiently low investments. For the second case, we develop a standard handicap auction which implements the first best under asymmetric information if there are no shadow costs of public funds. With shadow costs, no simple mechanism can implement the second best outcome.     

Investment dynamics in electricity markets

We investigate the incentives for investments in capacity in a simple strategic dynamic model with random demand growth. We construct non-collusive Markovian equilibria where the firms?? decisions depend on the current capacity stock only. The firms maintain small reserve margins and high market prices, and extract large rents. In some equilibria, rationing occurs with positive probability, so the market mechanism does not ensure ??security of supply??. Usually, the price cap reflects the value of lost energy or lost load (VOLL) that consumers place on severely reducing consumption on short notice. Our analysis identifies a minimum price cap, unrelated to the VOLL, that allows the firms to recoup their investment and production costs in equilibrium. However, raising the price cap above this minimum increases market prices and reduces consumer surplus, without affecting the level of investment.     

Advertising intensity and media selection

Using South African data, and developing a classification of goods on ‘search’ and ‘experience’ lines it was found that interindustry advertising intensity varies with the media mix used in any given industry. This in turn depends on the cost‐effectiveness to the consumer of a given medium's message characteristics.     

Advertising media and cigarette demand

Using state-level panel data for the USA spanning three decades, this research estimates the demand for cigarettes. The main contribution lies in studying the effects of cigarette advertising disaggregated across five qualitatively different groups. Results show cigarette demand to be near unit elastic, the income effects to be generally insignificant and border price effects and habit effects to be significant. Regarding advertising effects, aggregate cigarette advertising has a negative effect on smoking. Important differences across advertising media emerge when cigarette advertising is disaggregated. The effects of public entertainment and Internet cigarette advertising are stronger than those of other media. Anti-smoking messages accompanying print cigarette advertising seem relatively more effective. Implications for smoking control policy are discussed.     

Mixed bundling with profit and sales objectives

Suppose the marginal cost of a bundle is less than the sum of the marginal costs of the two products that make up the bundle. In this case, even when demands are completely uncorrelated, bundling is profitable but usually reduces total sales. The primary assumption of this paper is that firms are reluctant to bundle because they resist the loss in sales. Three optimization problems are analyzed: no bundling, mixed bundling, and bundling with profits and sales objectives, in which the firm has an objective function with a penalty for lost sales. This paper will show that firms benefit by bundling even if they modify their prices in such a way to reduce (or reverse) any loss in sales.     

网络销售的发展对策

网络销售方式是伴随互联网的发展而进入销售行业的,它以其巨大的优势扮演着电子商务中的重要角色。当然,其在发展过程中也存在着诸多阻碍因素,我们须认真分析,结合我国实际,从基础设施建设、法律法规的完善、购物观念的引导、支付手段的优化等环节入手,从而确保网络销售的健康发展。     

Oligopoly equilibria in electricity contract markets

This paper examines the implications of forward contracting on oligopoly environments by extending the model of Allaz and Vila to an environment with multiple firms and increasing marginal cost. Estimates of key parameters of this model are taken from existing electricity markets to predict the market impact of one round of public contracting, such as those seen in auctions for retail provision and resource procurement. The results imply that, when forward contracts are present, the importance of supplier concentration is greatly magnified relative to other determinants unilateral market power such as demand elasticity.      

Inefficient arbitrage in inter-regional electricity transmission

This paper analyzes the efficiency of an explicit ex ante auction for network access to facilitating trade between two separate, but linked, electricity wholesale markets. It is generally assumed that greater regional interconnection will mitigate the exercise of local market power by dominant generators, but we show analytically that when a dominant player has access to a more competitive neighboring market, and is also the lowest cost producer, the exercise of market power becomes attractive and can have negative consumer welfare implications. For an empirical analysis, we use a unique data set of daily company-level flow nominations on the Anglo-French Interconnector (IFA). This provides a clear case study, “free of loop flows” (with the IFA being the only link between the UK and France). We are able to identify evident inefficiencies in the market behavior, for which several explanations, including market power, may contribute.     

Music file sharing and sales displacement in the iTunes era

A growing empirical literature examines the relationship between music file sharing and legal purchases of music, but existing studies examine the period before consumers had attractive legal digital a la carte options. The iTunes Music Store has grown quickly since its appearance in 2003, and digital music now accounts for a third of US recorded music sales. Using two new surveys of University of Pennsylvania undergraduates in 2009 and 2010, we ask how music file sharing and sales displacement operate in the iTunes era, when the alternative to file sharing is purchasing individual songs, rather than entire albums. We find large amounts of file sharing in this population. Respondents have more stolen than paid music, but the music obtained via file sharing is, for the most part, low-valuation music which the respondents would likely not have purchased. The rate of sales displacement implied by the relationship between stolen and purchased music across respondents in both samples is between −0.15 and −0.3. That is, an additional song stolen reduces paid consumption by between a third and a sixth of song. Perhaps surprisingly, this is about the same as the CD sales displacement rate found for the pre-iTunes era using a similar empirical approach on a similar study population.     

Sustainable markets with short sales

Market objectives can conflict with long-term goals. Behind the conflict is the impatience axiom introduced by T. Koopmans to describe choices over time. The conflict is resolved here by introducing a new concept, sustainable markets. These differ from Arrow-Debreu markets in that traders have sustainable preferences and no bounds on short sales. Sustainable preferences are sensitive to the basic needs of the present without sacrificing the needs of future generations and embody the essence of sustainable development (Chichilnisky in Soc Choice Welf 13(2):231–257, 1996a; Res Energy Econ 73(4):467–491, 1996b). Theorems 1 and 2 show that limited arbitrage is a necessary and sufficient condition describing diversity and ensuring the existence of a sustainable market equilibrium where the invisible hand delivers sustainable as well as efficient solutions (Chichilnisky in Econ Theory 95:79–108, 1995; Chichilnisky and Heal in Econ Theory 12:163–176, 1998). In sustainable markets prices have a new role: they reflect both the value of instantaneous consumption and the value of the long-run future. The latter are connected to the independence of the axiom of choice at the foundations of mathematics (Godel 1940).     

The electricity market game

This paper examines the effects of imperfect competition in unregulated electricity markets from a general equilibrium perspective, and demonstrates that horizontal market power can explain both the large peak-period price spikes observed recently in California and elsewhere, and the marked reduction in addition to capacity that have also occurred during the transition to competitive markets.     

Nowcasting sales growth of manufacturing companies in India

The performance of private corporate sector is used as an important demand indicator for monetary policy making. As these data are received with a lag, assessing and monitoring of corporate sales on a real-time basis poses a significant challenge to policy makers in India. In this context, this article attempts to nowcast quarterly sales growth of Indian manufacturing companies and GDP growth of India using dynamic factor modelling framework. A multiple-level framework through turning point analysis and elastic net structure is used to overcome the overfitting problem during variable selection. Empirical results show improvement in forecast accuracy for one quarter ahead nowcast using 3-factor and 4-factor models over the benchmark model. However, absolute dominance of 3-factor models over 4-factor models was not established. As such, the article has proposed a forecast combination technique to nowcast sales growth of manufacturing companies in India.     

Rethinking real-time electricity pricing

Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the first program to expose residential consumers to hourly real-time pricing (RTP). I find that enrolled households are statistically significantly price elastic and that consumers responded by conserving energy during peak hours, but remarkably did not increase average consumption during off-peak times. The program increased consumer surplus by $10 per household per year. While this is only one to two percent of electricity costs, it illustrates a potential additional benefit from investment in retail Smart Grid applications, including the advanced electricity meters required to observe a household’s hourly consumption.     

Advertising effects in complete demand systems

A rationale for including advertising in complete demand systems is presented. An advertising analogue of the Slutsky equation is derived, and properties of the expenditure and indirect utility functions characterized. Empirical estimates of a complete demand system incorporating dynamic advertising effects support neoclassical restrictions; we do not reject homogeneity, or symmetry at the 1% level. This represents surprisingly strong support for neoclassical theory relative to prior parametric studies.     

Greenhouse gas policy and California electricity prices

California has adopted a policy of mandatory reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. (California Legislature (2006) Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, California Air Resources Board (2008) Climate change draft scoping plan, Sect. 2) Electricity utilities will need to recover related expenses, such as for the purchase of emissions permits. Economists often assume that raising usage prices for the commodity is the best way to recoup such expenses. However, regulated usage prices to California residential customers already exceed the cost of electricity generation plus a plausible externality cost for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Instead, recovering compliance expenses through usage insensitive charges could avoid causing unnecessary economic harm to consumers.