Combining time-series and econometric forecast of tourism activity

It has always been difficult to model the travel industry because tourism involves such a diverse set of activities. However, various regional decision makers have become increasingly interested in predicting the flows of visitors through their market. Accurate forecasts of the number of tourists' arrivals, their length of stay, and their expenditures improve planning and inventory control. Stochastic time-series models have compared favorably with econometric models at the aggregate level while some naive automatic forecasting tools have fared well in comparison when predicting industry-level behavior. Several approaches have been developed to improve forecast accuracy. This paper presents parsimonious methods of improving accuracy by combining various forecasting techniques. The Box-Jenkins stochastic time-series method is combined with a traditional econometric technique to forecast airline visitors to the State of Florida.     

Towards a geography of tourism

This paper traces the development of geographical interest in tourism during the past half century and examines the range and scope of the geography of tourism. The available literature is reviewed and suggestions are made regarding possible research aveneus and theoretical developments. Six major areas of interest are identified: spatial aspects of supply, spatial aspects of demand, the geography of resorts, patterns of movements and flows, the impact of tourism, and models of tourist space. Through an emphasis on spatial interaction an attempt is made to provide some cohesion and synthesis for this body of knowledge which constitutes the basis of the geography of tourism.     

The evolution of tourist arts

Tourist arts with ethnic content are at the nexus of changing tourism, ethnicity and art in the modern world. This paper explores the range of varieties of tourist arts, the dynamics of change between various types of artifacts, and the interaction between tourist arts and notions of ethnic self-perception. The analogy between language and art is pursued to illuminate the nature of the various communication codes embodied in tourist and ethnic arts. The paper concludes by stressing that tourist arts are not an end-point, but one possibility within the fluid relationships between material symbols, outsiders' demand, and the defense and reformulation of ethnicity. It also concludes that the evolution of ethnic awareness, combined with increased education and travel opportunities, is bringing a uniformity of attitudes towards tourism, material heritage, and museums among the middle classes of all nations. Thus minority ethnic symbols have become the manipulated “totems” of touristic identity.     

Modelling Australian domestic and international inbound travel: a spatial–temporal approach

In this paper Australian domestic and international inbound travel are modelled by an anisotropic dynamic spatial lag panel Origin-Destination (OD) travel flow model. Spatial OD travel flow models have traditionally been applied in a single cross-sectional context, where the spatial structure is assumed to have reached its long run equilibrium and temporal dynamics are not explicitly considered. On the other hand, spatial effects are rarely accounted for in traditional tourism demand modelling. We attempt to address this dichotomy between spatial modelling and time series modelling in tourism research by using a spatial-temporal model. In particular, tourism behaviour is modelled as travel flows between regions. Temporal dependencies are accounted for via the inclusion of autoregressive components, while spatial autocorrelations are explicitly accounted for at both the origin and the destination. We allow the strength of spatial autocorrelation to exhibit seasonal variations, and we allow for the possibility of asymmetry between capital-city neighbours and non-capital-city neighbours. Significant temporal and spatial dynamics have been uncovered for both domestic and international tourism demand. For example we find strong seasonal temporal autocorrelations, significant trends and significant spatial autocorrelations at both the origin and the destination. Moreover, the spatial patterns are found to be most significant during peak holiday seasons. Understanding these patterns in tourist behaviour has important implications for tourism operators.     

Using competing models to evaluate the role of environmental pressures in ecommerce adoption by small and medium sized travel agents in a developing country

This study investigates the factors that influence e-commerce adoption in SME travel agents in a developing country. The research is based upon a questionnaire survey of travel agents in Egypt and employs advanced statistical techniques to test a conceptual framework that extends the technology acceptance model. Using competing models the study examines the relationship between e-commerce adoption, perceived benefits, perceived barriers and environmental pressures. The results indicate that environmental pressures significantly affect the perceived benefits and barriers of e-commerce adoption, in addition to having an indirect effect on adoption behaviour. Insights are provided into the nature of relationships between the key factors that determine e-commerce adoption and the extent to which they can be used to develop effective strategies for SME travel agent re-intermediation in the global travel market. Implications are identified for practice and government policy in relation to the use of e-commerce in SME travel businesses in developing countries.     

Spatial patterns of leisure travel by trip purpose

This article reports the problems encountered and procedures developed to conduct a secondary analysis of the 1977 National Travel Survey. Using the travel regions developed by the Travel Industry Association of America, these procedures were applied in an analysis of the interregional distribution of leisure travel by trip purpose. The results indicate that differences in travel patterns exist among different leisure purposes; that the South and Great Lakers were the major attractor and generator, respectively, of leisure travel for all purposes; and that interaction existed across purposes betweent the New England and Eastern Gateway regions and between the Mountain West and Far West regions.     

The ideology of class and tourism confronting the discourse of advertising

Starting from Baudrillard's analysis of the ideological character inherent in all consumption, touristic consumption, for many reasons ,has a special place in this social semantic. Here, advertising plays an important if not essential role because tourism is a product consumed outside of normal time and daily social space. Therefore the social semantic asserts itselfless through the product itself than through its representation: the discourse of advertising. But advertising discourse is plural, each form having its own ideology, competing with others. Behind the commercial competition lies a competition of social classes, but with a new typology, no longer based on the capital/favor relationship. Four ideological models are analyzed and illustrated with their advertising messages: the traditional model, the clerical/executive model, the youth model, and the “intellectual class” model.     

Tourism in British Columbia Metropolitan and Camping Visitors

Two issues common to tourism planning are investigated in the context of a current planning proposal between the British Columbia and Canadian governments. These issue are the problem of spatial imbalance in travel patterns and the place of camping in market development strategies. Through the use of multiple regression two group discriminatory analysis, several characteristic of metropolitan and campers visitor to British Columbia are differentiated. The dominant tourist position of British Columbia's two metropolitan centers is shown to be a function of their relative location and the availability of familiar visits. The campers proved to be independent travellers: independent of familial ties and metropolitan locations. Some implications and planning strategies for the integration of these two groups into the travel industry development objectives for the province of British Columbia are suggested.     

The language of Japanese tourism

This paper discusses the way in which language is used in contemporary Japanese travel brochures. What concepts do travel agencies use to attract tourists? What themes continually recur in the advertising literature? Many of these concepts and themes are the same as those important to tourism in the Western world, but there are certain cultural themes or ways of treating tourist attractions which are peculiar to Japanese tourism. A second aim is to consider the “keywords” of Japanese tourism: those stressed in the advertising for domestic tourism and those stressed for international tourism. The relation between these two possibly antagonistic sets of keywords is discussed in terms of the ideological principles around which Japanese society is organized, and it is hypothesized that keywords for international tourism portend great and long-term changes in the fabric of Japanese society.     

Trouble in the travel account

For several years a small but growing group of economists has been interested in the balance-of-payments aspects of international tourism and the travel account. This paper examines the reliability and consistency of international travel data provided by government agencies. Travel data are usually constructed from survey questionnaires, bank transfers, and records of travel agents. Often the quality of the data is low. In fact, it is likely that some countries are not able to tell whether they have a surplus or deficit on travel accounts. An examination of the inconsistencies in travel data reported by different countries will aid researchers in the numerous international travel demand studies.     

Tourists’ travel time values using discrete choice models: the recreational value of the Teide National Park

Abstract

The value of travel time is one of the most important factors in recreation demand models. Traditionally, the most common approach for its calculation has been the use of different proportions of the wage rate; however, criticisms of this method abound because in a recreational trip the relevant measure is the opportunity cost of leisure time rather than work time. In this paper, we adopt a novel approach in the literature using discrete choice models based on short-term decisions and independent of the labor market. We obtain the value of travel time through the trade-off between time and money considered by the tourist visitors when choosing the transport mode and we present the first calculation of the recreational value of the Teide National Park. Specifically, using a Revealed Preference survey of 801 park visitors, we estimate Mixed Logit models accounting for random preference heterogeneity, derive travel time values and incorporate them into a Zonal Travel Cost Method. This approach allows us to estimate different time values depending on transport mode and stage of the trip and shows that the use of discrete choice models instead of the wage rate approach has a strong impact on the recreational value calculated.     

Activity-Based Segmentation of Canadian Domestic Pleasure Travelers to New Brunswick

The purpose of the study was to conduct a distinctive analysis for segmenting the New Brunswick travel market through empirical examination. Data was obtained from the Consumer Interests, Motivators and Attitudes (CIMA) Surveys conducted by the New Brunswick Ministry of Tourism and Parks. This study examined the travel characteristics, benefits sought from travel to New Brunswick, intention to revisit, interest in various travel activities when traveling and sociodemographic characteristics of 655 visitors and nonvisitors from Quebec, Ontario, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. The results showed that the activity-based travelers are classified in three clusters: outdoor lovers, active explorers, and cultural shoppers. Statistically significant differences among three clusters were found in sociodemographic, travel pattern, activity participation, trip planning, and benefit-related variables. The study results indicated that activity was a viable basis for market segmentation and implications existed for product packaging, promotional strategies, and advertising strategies when attracting domestic pleasure travelers in Canada to New Brunswick.     

Geographical aspects of state travel marketing in the USA

Almost all of the formal Federal and state government involvement in domestic travel marketing in the United States has been undertaken by state travel offices. Of particular interest to the geographer are state-to-state variations in the size and activities of these travel offices. In this discussion, differences in the total budgets of state travel offices are presented and compared to differences in state population and domestic travel expenditures by state. A three-fold classification of state travel marketing strategies with a geographical basis is then introduced. While the overall discussion provides some explanation for the differences observed, the conclusion is reached that political and other considerations regarding state travel offices are too subtle to be explained by just a few variables.     

Analysis of Time Pressure and Value Perception: An Exploratory Study of Consumer Travel Fair

The consumer travel fair is a well-known vacation marketing event in Singapore. Travel product/package promotions at the Singapore travel fair are only available for 3 days. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between time pressure and consumer value of travel fair products through their perceptions of scarcity, price, and quality. These constructs were examined using two types of mediation models. A random sample survey of 251 travel fair visitors were collected to verify the conceptual model proposed to integrate these constructs. The study found the mediated relationship between time pressure and consumer value was significant. Additionally, the signs for the total indirect effects were consistent with the proposed mediation models. The results are important from managerial and personal selling perspectives.     

VACATION LIFESTYLE AND TRAVEL BEHAVIORS

In marketing research, tourism scholars have often developed a variety of scales and integrated them into segmentation studies. Since vacation lifestyle variables, which could be utilized as a base for marketing research, have not received much attention from market researchers, this article attempts to further purify the extant scale and use Taiwanese travelers as a case study. The study survey was conducted of 443 tourists staying at least one night at the Ken‐Ting National Park in Taiwan from April to May, 2002. This study collected 420 useful samples. Three groups of users merged from the cluster analysis: (a) Family Oriented Travelers, (b) Social Oriented Travelers, and (c) Stylish Travelers. The study shows that the differences in trip characteristics are the frequencies of domestic travel, the frequencies of international travel, the hotel preferences, and the average expenditure on accommodations. The variations in demographic characteristics relate to age, family life cycle, education, and household income. This study on vacation lifestyle subsequently renders a new assessment tool to tourism professionals in Taiwan to grasp the lifestyle profile of their customers and develop strategies to entice the travel market.     

Destination place planning and design

Destination place management requires that land use and development issues be addressed. Despite considerable advancement in the methodological processes, there is still no clear conceptual destination model to address these issues. Existing models have largely been developed through a fragmented case-study approach and have not yet achieved a sufficiently integrated conceptual basis for a comprehensive understanding of the spatial characteristics of destination regions. This paper attempts to sharpen the conceptualization of the core elements of destination regions by building upon existing models and concepts. The model presented here is a systemic construct and provides for a common platform from which investigations can proceed into the normative and functional aspects of spatial destination design.     

Epidemiological susceptibility risk and tourist flows around the world

Global tourist flows have increased in recent decades, but so have the outbreak and spread of epidemics, with enormous social and economic costs for the tourism sector. These developments affect the tourists' decisions to travel through their perception of travel risk and safety. Tourists need to assess whether destinations can identify and manage epidemiological risks to improve travel safety. This paper responds to this challenge by constructing an index of epidemiological susceptibility risk using objective information on the quality of health, environmental safety and communications infrastructures, demographics, economic activity, and institutional governance. The index appears to be a significant predictor of inbound tourist flows and occasionally of outbound flows. The effect on inbound flows is stronger in larger countries and weaker for outbound flows. It remains robust after applying sensitivity and endogeneity tests and economic and non-economic controls. The index could potentially provide a useful policy tool for predicting and managing the implications of epidemics on the tourism industry.     

Spatial Pattern of Tourist Flows Among the Asia-Pacific Countries: An Examination over a Decade

The spatial dimension of tourism provides insights about travel demands and travel flows and helps destinations in planning, development and management. The last decade has witnessed a steady and rapid growth in the Asia-Pacific region's tourism industry, in terms of both inbound and outbound travel. This particular study aimed to: (a) provide information and explore the changes on the nature of travel flows as measured by the tourist arrivals among the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) member countries for the years of 1995 and 2004; (b) assess general propensity to travel among PATA countries using the concepts of Country Potential Generation Index and Gross Travel Propensity; and (c) examine the shift in the past decade in terms of the relative tourism generation power of PATA countries by comparing and contrasting the 1995 and 2004 indices. The results of the study provide an overview of the spatial patterns of travel flows and travel propensity in Pacific Asia region over a 10-year period. The study demonstrates that the functions of travel flows and indices are complementary and provide an informative picture of spatial travel behavior and demand.     

How to catch their attention? Taiwanese flashpackers inferring their travel motivation from personal development and travel experience

Backpackers first appeared in the seventeenth century. The twenty-first century has witnessed the rise of a new backpacker subculture given the changing times: one that is closely related to technology use is called flashpackers. The research discussed in this article explores the relationships between travel experience, personal development, and travel motivation of flashpackers. The study uses convenience sampling taken in the lobby of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. A total of 400 questionnaires were issued and 375 valid questionnaires were recovered; the rate of return was 93.8%. The results of this study are the following: (1) there are differences between travel experience and travel motivation for Taiwan’s flashpackers; (2) there is a relationship between personal development and travel experience of Taiwan’s flashpackers; (3) there is a correlation between personal development and travel motivation for Taiwan’s flashpackers; and (4) personal development moderately affects the relationship between travel experience and travel motivation for Taiwan’s flashpackers. This study contributes to the tourism industry by enhancing direct targeting of customers, and it provides hospitality and travel agency managers with the means to determine appropriate marketing strategies for flashpackers.