Contending voices: futures, culture and development

This essay discusses some aspects of the World Commission on Culture and Development (WCCD), a major UN initiative. It describes, in particular, the fate of a proposal to establish a General Agreement on Culture and Development (GACD) similar to other international agreements, but which takes a ‘bottom-up’ rather than a ‘top-down’ approach to negotiation. The proposed GACD would contribute to the resolution of culture-related crises and promote new directions for development based on cultural diversity and shared global values. The aim of the essay is: to indicate the aims and progress of the Commission; to consider how cultural futures-oriented thinking might assist in the conceptualization of a GACD; and to reflect on how different voices within the world community affect the progress of such initiatives and proposals.     

Genetic enhancement, futures tense

This article reviews central developments on the intersections of genetics research, genetic counselling and bioethics that, in the 1970s and 1980s came together in the construction of the genetic decision maker through an “enhancement imaginary”. It argues that this image of genetic decision making, along with emerging socio-economic developmental traits in the West, will come under increasing pressure. This will generate the need for an up-scaled decision making complex, incorporating digital means and cognitive science in contexts increasingly outside of health care institutions. The handling of information, identity and decision making under changing and complex circumstances becomes central. Such developments raise concerns about, simultaneously, increasing surveillance, social inequality and exclusion, and emerging expert/lay relations. New attitudes, institutions and forms of knowledge are needed to meet emerging genomic futures in constructive ways.     

Fed funds futures variance futures

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases where the underlying FFF rate exhibits jumps and where the realized variance is computed by sampling the FFF rate discretely. The valuation of longer-term FFF variance futures is subject to an approximation error which we quantify and show is negligible. We also provide an illustrative example of the practical valuation and use of the FFF variance futures contract.     

The futures field: Functions,forms, and critical issues

Institutional forms in the futures field should be founded on the functions to be performed. These functions are viewed in relation to the contribution of visionaries to more and better images of the future; to a family of related analytical activities aimed at enhancing intentionality and explicitness in planning and decision making; and to a variety of grass-roots movements aimed at encouraging participatory social planning. Five basic functionsgoals formulation; methods development; applications; coupling; implementation—are explored and some existing institutional forms are examined: image generators; research organisations; corporate or government planning groups; and citizen groups. These provide guidelines for the possible development of modified institutional forms and their orientation.     

Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences

The futures field demonstrates a willing openness in embracing methodologies, approaches, and influences from a diversity of disciplines and perspectives. This plurality of practice is evidenced in a growing body of work that increasingly embodies futures thinking in the design of everyday material and networked experiences. The intersection of design and futures produces artifacts, applications and interactions created to provoke dialog in an accessible manner. As part of the Futures special issue on the Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future event, this article describes the documentation and public representation of the creative outcomes from nine Emerge design futures workshops. These workshops provided a rich opportunity to study how designers and futurists collaboratively engage, implement and communicate alternative futures. The goal of the documentation effort described is to capture the experience of creating experiential futures and extend the capacity for developing social foresight through a participatory exhibit and online social platform.     

Robot futures: science fiction and futures studies methodologies in action

What would constitute a robot identity? Would a robot developing an identity be consciousness of the processes that could/would shape its identity? This essay explores these questions by considering images common to both, futures studies and science fiction—in particular, the now famous anti-capitalist demonstrations in Seattle in November 1999.     

Preparing for the professional futures field:: Observations from the UHCLC futures program

The futures field is an arena of increasing interest and activity. This article seeks to: (1) provide general information about key information sources for directed inquiry into futures studies; (2) sketch the origins and current status of the graduate program in Studies of the Future offered by the University of Houston at Clear Lake City—currently the largest and most comprehensive program of its kind; (3) Describe the methodology used in a recent strategic planning and program development project to update the UHCLC program; and (4) convey some guiding observations on teaching and research in futures studies, and on helping students find appropriate employment.     

Metaphors,semiotics and futures studies

Metaphor belongs to key concepts of semiotics. I have made my career in the field of semiotics and I appreciate the possibility to tell to the scientific community of futurists how a semiotician sees the various functions of metaphors and their connections to the future. The edited volume CLA 2.0 (Inayatullah & Milojevic, 2015) shows that in addition to metaphors, many futures researchers have found the general language-based approach of semiotics. The paper deals with three issues: first the theory of metaphors as such, much discussed in the semiotic literature; then what semiotics says about the future; and finally, what kind of semiotics we are considering here. I would propose to scrutinise the problem of metaphors and future in light of my own new theory which I call ‘existential semiotics’.     

Form,change, and information: Qualitative dynamics in futures research

Certain concepts of qualitative dynamics can be useful aids in the comparison, evaluation, and understanding of long-range forecasts; primarily the implications of these forecasts (as opposed to their means of construction, assumptions, or validity). This usefulness is demonstrated by the application of qualitative dynamics (the topology of catastrophe theory) to the forecasts of the Kahn group and the Meadows group.     

Gendered society, gendered futures research

New fields of research, new approaches and branches of science enrich the scientific world-view and scientific toolbox. Below I employ concepts developed for a newcomer to the domain of science, feminist and women's research, in the field of futures research. The distinction between biological sex and sociocultural gender is a useful conceptual device. The sociocultural woman's or man's role is distinguished from being a biological woman or man. With the help of this distinction feminists have shown that, especially in science, there is a dominant male mode of thinking, which they call ‘the male bias'. The male bias in Western futures research gets its extreme expression in the forecasting approach. There are, though, early efforts to develop ‘female futures research' from practical work with women's futures to theoretical and utopian considerations. The female approach is but an embryo and should be developed further. To begin is to understand the dilemma.