The Big Picture - trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals

Following work done in the UK, Canada and now starting across Europe,¹ there appears to be renewed interest in charting the boundaries of what to expect between 2010 and 2025 as the character of the 21st century begins to become firmly established. What are the shaping forces, or sources of change and what might be their impacts, particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities?Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to shape the future through the Big Picture Survey. The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference. More than 250 responses were submitted by the Conference date. The results collected were synthesised and presented back to the attendees in a plenary presentation by the authors.The current paper aims to clarify the concepts first by suggesting definitions and discussing the distinctions between them. The paper then presents the rationales of conducting the Big Picture Survey (BPS), presents its methodology and discusses the results of the survey in a greater extent.     

Futures signals sense-making framework (FSSF): A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of information

This article introduces future signals sense-making framework (FSSF), an alternative philosophy towards weak signals, emerging issues, drivers, and trends, that is in contrast to the traditional single signal or path extrapolation approach. The philosophy of FSSF is based on the principles of environmental scanning and pattern management, which state that if there is a grand transformation process on the way or if there is a new emerging pattern or phenomenon, such a process will certainly be reflected in many different ways. Therefore, in this philosophy, futures knowledge is believed to be fragmented between various simultaneous and overlapping sources. Here, a researcher's task is to carry out a sufficient environmental scanning process and to cluster and sense how to create the emerging future through a pattern management process where FSSF plays a role as the first start-up tool. Alternatively, FSSF can also be used as a general knowledge management and sense-making tool for any kind of analyses.     

Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making

Already two decades ago strategy literature started a discussion on weak signals (H.I. Ansoff, Implanting Strategic Management, Prentice-Hall International, Englewood-Cliffs, NJ, 1984). Currently the weak signals approach is experiencing a renaissance in strategic planning but now either in the context of strategic flexibility or peripheral vision. In this paper we aim, firstly, to present theories describing filters that a weak signal has to pass in the strategy-creation process. Secondly, we present a construction for information filters in the strategy process and prove that the nature of objectives and the method used in environment scanning have a major impact on the outcome. Thirdly, we introduce an application that opens filters for weak signals in the strategy process and thus provides the organization with an opportunity for pro-active decision-making.     

Entrepreneurial finance,credit cards,and race

This paper examines the impact of financial deregulation on entrepreneurship. We assess the impact of credit card deregulation on transitions into self-employment using state-level removal of credit card interest rate ceilings following the US Supreme Court's 1978 Marquette decision as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that credit card deregulation increases the probability of entrepreneurial entry, with a particularly strong effect for black entrepreneurs. We demonstrate that these effects are magnified in states with a history of racial discrimination and link the results to discrimination-based barriers to entry.     

Strategic orientation,organisational structure,and the associated effects on performance

The paper presents an investigation of the structural characteristics of firms' strategic orientation (as conceptualised by Miles and Snow (1978)). The associated relationships to profitability and perceived market share are studied in financial services firms, specifically in credit unions. The author finds that most firms have a mixed structural form, with fewer firms being either highly structured or lowly structured. Defenders are more likely than expected to be of mixed structural form and less likely to be highly structured. Prospectors are more likely than expected to be highly structured. Analysers are more likely than expected to be highly structured. Reactors show little variation from the expected distribution. No interaction of structure and strategy is evident on either share or profits. The results do indicate that strategic orientation has an influence on perceived market share, but not profitability. Reactors are shown to have significantly smaller market shares than the Prospectors, Analysers, and Defenders. Also, Defenders are shown to have smaller shares than Prospectors. On the other hand, structural form is shown to have an influence on profitability. The less structured firms are shown to be more profitable than either the highly structured or mixed structure firms. It appears, at least in this sample, that organisational structure is more relevant to profitability, while organisational strategy is more relevant to market share.     

牡丹白金卡:精英、精致、精彩——访中国工商银行牡丹卡中心客户服务部总经理高亚力

随着我国金融业务全面对外开放,银行业的竞争日趋激烈,高端客户成为各家银行竞争的焦点之一.国内发卡银行在经历了前期的跑马圈地似的快速发展后,已拥有一定的客户规模和基础,开始转向精细化管理.     

Evolution of education: From weak signals to rich imaginaries of educational futures

This paper proposes that all aspects of educational futures are affected by the new thinking patterns and ways of knowing that have been emerging over the last hundred years as part of the parallel processes of evolution of human consciousness and major global societal change.Throughout the 20th century, significant developments can be mapped in most, if not all, of the major academic disciplines. Secondly, the move to transcend disciplinary specialisation, via inter-, multi-, and trans-disciplinary approaches is strengthening. Thirdly, at a higher order theoretical level, these developments are explicitly theorized in the discourses associated with postformal reasoning, integral theory and planetary consciousness. In spite of all these developments in other disciplines and knowledge fields, the institution of mass public education, with its underpinning industrial worldview, has been pretty static since its inception two hundred years ago. Finally, the paper identifies three minor, but significant, waves of evolutionary emergence in education over the last hundred years that if articulated and nurtured could strengthen the development of evolutionary pedagogies for the 21st century.     

A note on work-related values, budget emphasis and managers’ organisational commitment

Managers’ work-related values (WRVs) have important implications for designing appropriate management accounting systems (MAS) in organisations. This paper examines the effect of the interaction between managers’ WRV for innovation and budget emphasis (an integral part of MAS) on their organisational commitment. The sample consisted of 109 managers from production, marketing and support departments within Australian manufacturing firms. Hypotheses were tested using both quantitative and qualitative data collected by a questionnaire survey and post-survey interviews. The results indicate that the adoption of low budget emphasis led to high organisational commitment when managers’ WRV for innovation was high, but not when managers’ WRV for innovation was low. The results also indicate that marketing managers held higher WRV for innovation than production managers. The post-survey interviews provide further insight into how a more customer- and competitor-focused subculture of marketing managers and a more technical- and efficiency-focused subculture of production managers may promote the difference in their WRV for innovation, and affect their attitudes towards budget emphasis. The findings of the study have implications for design of performance evaluation systems for managers in functionally differentiated organisations.     

信用卡欺诈申请的现状、成因及防控措施

自1985年国内推出第一张信用卡,我国的信用卡产业已先后经历了市场自发阶段、金卡工程实施后的政府推动阶段、国际标准信用卡全面启动及快速发展阶段三个阶段,目前已进入了竞争白热化的爆炸式增长期.     

银行卡欺诈问题及其对策

银行卡欺诈问题一直以来都受到业界关注。如何制定反欺诈策略是目前反欺诈部门的主管面临的一项特殊挑战。     

抓住机遇迎接挑战共创用卡美好生活

2008年对于中国来说是不寻常的一年,我们经历了严重低温雨雪冰冻灾害和四川汶川特大地震的考验,也品尝到了成功举办北京奥运会、残奥会和完成神舟七号载人航天飞行任务的喜悦,现在我们又面临着国际金融危机的冲击.     

抗击疫情,众志成城——盘点湖北地区医保、医药及医院联名卡

时下,新型冠状病毒疫情已从武汉蔓延到全国,为共同抗击疫情,社会各界纷纷伸出援手,金融机构第一时间行动起来,多措并举助力打赢疫情防控阻击战。为表达对医务人员的崇高敬意及对患者的支持,笔者整理了湖北地区有关医保、医药和医院联名银行卡及相关卡的信息。     

中国光大银行推出阳光存贷合一卡

中国银联2002年成立,2003年在全国地市级以上城市基本实现银行卡联网通用,2004年便粉墨登上国际大舞台,着手拓展银联标准卡(以下简称"银联卡")的境外受理网络.     

储值卡的发展及对银行卡的影响

随着我国经济的快速发展和信息技术的不断进步,非金融机构发行的储值卡应运而生,并呈现出快速发展的势头.储值卡无论是外在形式,还是内在技术手段,均与银行卡较为相似,且在一定范围内具有替代银行卡进行消费的潜质,这势必对银行卡产业产生一定的影响.本文从储值卡自身特性出发,分析其对银行卡发展的影响,并进一步探讨银行卡产业如何面对这种挑战.