Metaphors,semiotics and futures studies

Metaphor belongs to key concepts of semiotics. I have made my career in the field of semiotics and I appreciate the possibility to tell to the scientific community of futurists how a semiotician sees the various functions of metaphors and their connections to the future. The edited volume CLA 2.0 (Inayatullah & Milojevic, 2015) shows that in addition to metaphors, many futures researchers have found the general language-based approach of semiotics. The paper deals with three issues: first the theory of metaphors as such, much discussed in the semiotic literature; then what semiotics says about the future; and finally, what kind of semiotics we are considering here. I would propose to scrutinise the problem of metaphors and future in light of my own new theory which I call ‘existential semiotics’.     

Genetic enhancement, futures tense

This article reviews central developments on the intersections of genetics research, genetic counselling and bioethics that, in the 1970s and 1980s came together in the construction of the genetic decision maker through an “enhancement imaginary”. It argues that this image of genetic decision making, along with emerging socio-economic developmental traits in the West, will come under increasing pressure. This will generate the need for an up-scaled decision making complex, incorporating digital means and cognitive science in contexts increasingly outside of health care institutions. The handling of information, identity and decision making under changing and complex circumstances becomes central. Such developments raise concerns about, simultaneously, increasing surveillance, social inequality and exclusion, and emerging expert/lay relations. New attitudes, institutions and forms of knowledge are needed to meet emerging genomic futures in constructive ways.     

Currency futures, news releases, and uncertainty resolution

The effects of domestic macroeconomic news releases on futures on the British Pound (BP), Canadian Dollar (CD), Deutsche Mark (DM), Japanese Yen (JY), and Swiss Franc (SF) are examined. The results show that all five futures respond to the release of macroeconomic news, especially the first set of news releases issued at 7:30 a.m. (CST). Results of tests that identify the effects of individual announcements suggest that news in the Employment Report, the Trade Deficit, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization affects all five futures. Other announcements do not have such widespread effects. Volatility increases following the announcements persist for some time. Such increases are not uniform across the five instruments. For instance, following the 7:30-a.m. announcements, for the JY, BP, and SF, higher variance is observed for 30 min. However, for the DM and CD, the increase is 45 and 15 min, respectively.     

Fed funds futures variance futures

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases where the underlying FFF rate exhibits jumps and where the realized variance is computed by sampling the FFF rate discretely. The valuation of longer-term FFF variance futures is subject to an approximation error which we quantify and show is negligible. We also provide an illustrative example of the practical valuation and use of the FFF variance futures contract.     

Multiple pasts, converging presents, and alternative futures

This paper introduces a variant of scenario planning, supported by some related new concepts in futures studies. The traditional snapshot and chain portrayals of scenarios are replaced by a network, which enables the consideration of multiple views of the present and the past, occurring in multiple systems (e.g. global and local). A fractal “leaf of goals” metaphor is developed, illustrating the argument that activities, events and objectives lie on a continuum: any one event is itself a composite of an indefinite number of component events.Using this concept, network scenarios are developed, consisting of nodes (representing events) and links (representing influences). Because events are socially constructed, each node can be seen as an end-state summary of a smaller network scenario. The networks are created (typically in workshops with participants from the systems being studied) using modified versions of the futures wheel and backcasting, as well as a new variant entitled middlecasting. By working iteratively between past and future events, the networks are steadily refined.A further departure from conventional scenario planning is that scenario networks do not begin at the present time, but extend about as far into the past as they do into the future. By beginning in the past, the roots of network fragments can be identified more clearly in the context of their multiple presents.The method is illustrated with an example of a project to democratize public radio in Indonesia. A scenario network was successfully created, but the delineation of multiple pasts and presents turned out to need further clarification.     

Contending voices: futures, culture and development

This essay discusses some aspects of the World Commission on Culture and Development (WCCD), a major UN initiative. It describes, in particular, the fate of a proposal to establish a General Agreement on Culture and Development (GACD) similar to other international agreements, but which takes a ‘bottom-up’ rather than a ‘top-down’ approach to negotiation. The proposed GACD would contribute to the resolution of culture-related crises and promote new directions for development based on cultural diversity and shared global values. The aim of the essay is: to indicate the aims and progress of the Commission; to consider how cultural futures-oriented thinking might assist in the conceptualization of a GACD; and to reflect on how different voices within the world community affect the progress of such initiatives and proposals.     

Gendered society, gendered futures research

New fields of research, new approaches and branches of science enrich the scientific world-view and scientific toolbox. Below I employ concepts developed for a newcomer to the domain of science, feminist and women's research, in the field of futures research. The distinction between biological sex and sociocultural gender is a useful conceptual device. The sociocultural woman's or man's role is distinguished from being a biological woman or man. With the help of this distinction feminists have shown that, especially in science, there is a dominant male mode of thinking, which they call ‘the male bias'. The male bias in Western futures research gets its extreme expression in the forecasting approach. There are, though, early efforts to develop ‘female futures research' from practical work with women's futures to theoretical and utopian considerations. The female approach is but an embryo and should be developed further. To begin is to understand the dilemma.     

Thermodynamics, entropy and disorder in futures studies

The conceptual bases of futures studies are constrained by physical reality only to the extent that we construct these according to our best understanding of physical principles. This places a burden on futures practitioners to ensure that engagement and use of these principles is sufficiently robust to protect the plausibility of their work. The second law of thermodynamics is widely recognised as having fundamental implications for the nature of our physical reality. It is also widely misinterpreted, leading to distorted understanding of this reality. Thermodynamic principles are frequently referred to in the futures literature, and are sometimes fundamental to the futures thinking underlying the work. Reflecting the widespread misunderstanding of the second law, usage in the futures literature is usually problematic. This has implications for the value of the work, and also for the credibility of the field. In this article, the problem is demonstrated, and an updated interpretation of the second law is introduced. The origin of the problem is examined from historical and scientific perspectives within the thermodynamics field. The updated interpretation's implications are examined in the context of futures and other transdisciplinary perspectives.     

Production flexibility, stochastic separation, hedging, and futures prices

We study a dynamic model where uncertainty about interim outputadjustments causes producers to face price, cost and outputuncertainty. Stochastically separable production decisions areindependent of the producer's risk preferences and expectationsand are based on the prevailing futures price as a certain outputprice. Conditions under which futures contracts achieve stochasticseparation are established. Optimal hedging and maturity structureof futures contracts, equilibrium futures prices, and the effectsof futures trading on output are studied. The systematic riskpremium depends on the product of the futures beta and the covarianceof the market return with production revenues.     

伊斯坦布尔宗教与艺术的圣殿

有历史的传说,有现代的文化,还有对未来的畅想——这就是伊斯坦布尔。