金融城域网的建设与应用

目前,我国的银行业已建成了技术先进的网络体系,重要的业务系统都已上线运行,并实现了数据集中管理。但基于保密和安全性考虑,金融系统之间的网间互联非常有限．严重制约和影响了整个金融系统之间信息和数据的共享。因此,通过区域性金融系统之间网间互联的金融城域网,     

出资者监管框架下的博弈现象探讨

在我国国资管理与国企改革轰轰烈烈进行、国有资本出资者身份日益统一集中于各级国资委的时代背景下,出资者与经营者的责任边界日渐明晰,委托人对代理人的监管活动越来越深、越来越细。出资者监管融通了相关主体之间的经济利益、心理活动和管理协调等纷繁复杂的活动。本文以博弈论视角来阐述监管领域的几个主要博弈现象,试图从理性、机理上探寻国资监管之道。     

博弈模型的扩展分析

偷逃税行为最现实的原因是纳税人和征税人之间的信息不对称。因此,其治理可从内外两个方面入手:"内"是在内部建立激励机制;"外"是通过制度的重新设计和调整,增强对纳税行为的控制和约束,堵塞纳税人的寻租途径。     

资产评估机构监管的博弈分析

运用博弈论分析方法,对我国资产评估机构监管问题进行分析,以期从理论上揭示资声丽机构、监管部门的行为动机及博弈均衡结果,说明在现有的制度安排下,各行为主体的行为选择及相互作用机理,并依博弈分析的结果对我国资产评估机构的监管提出建议。     

人民币汇率变动博弈研究

一段时间以来,关于人民币升值问题炒得炙手可热。美国、日本、欧盟方面都认为,中国应该改变现行的人民币汇率机制,人民币应该升值,以避免全球贸易失衡。作为回应,7月21日19时中国人民银行分布公告称,人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,美元对人民币交易价格调整为1美元兑8．11元人民币,升值2％。     

对金融监管腐败的制度约束与博弈分析

如何积极有效地防范金融监管腐败是当前一个重大课题。本文分析了金融监管腐败形成的必要条件，探讨了防范金融监管腐败的制度约束办法，并建立一个博弈模型，讨论了金融监管反腐各个因素之间的关系。结果表明，要有效防范金融监管腐败，反腐机构要在查办和惩罚两个方面加大力度，强化金融监管部门业务经费的透明度管理，重点打击中小案件，既要事前重成慑，也要事后抓惩治，降低腐败的期望效益。     

Predicting an American future for cohousing

Cohousing is an innovative form of accommodation. It offers economic, environmental and social advantages over existing forms of development. Cohousing emerged in the USA during the past 20 years as an innovative housing form with a niche market, but adoptions to date have been limited. This paper seeks to determine the future for cohousing in the USA, using innovation diffusion theories. It reviews the factors influencing the rate of diffusion of cohousing (relative advantages, compatibility, complexity, trialability and observability). It investigates the impact of path dependencies and the existence of disruptive technologies on adoptions. It considers the potential for cohousing to “cross the chasm” and be adopted by the mainstream. The findings of the research suggest that “grass-roots” approaches to the creation of cohousing communities are likely to result in the greatest number of adoptions in the future.     

Always coming home: Towards an archaeology of the future

This paper reports on a research project which facilitated a group of socially committed educators to clarify the nature of their desirable futures and to identify their sources of hope. This work is set within the normative tradition of futures studies and an account is given of how the research process was arrived at and the way in which people responded to this. A participatory and experiential focus group format enabled participants to explore these issues in a fruitful and synergetic way. Key elements of their preferable futures and primary sources of hope are identified and then compared with previous research findings. Finally these concerns are located within wider contemporary debates about revisionary postmodernism, sustainable futures and the utopian tradition.     

中国证券市场监管博弈问题研究

在世界经济全球化和金融自由化日益发展的今天,在我国已加入WTO的背景下,实现中国证券市场的有效监管,完善资本市场体系对于我国经济的稳定发展具有重要作用。首先对证券市场违规行为进行了静态博弈分析;最后对监管政策博弈分析的应用进行了研究。     

论欧元汇率波动：一个欧美博弈视角

欧元自1999年面世以来,其走势和前景引起众人关注,许多人纷纷利用购买力平价等各种汇率决定理论对其汇率走势进行预测,然而其汇率变化仍然出乎意料,欧元从最初的一路狂跌,到2002年以来强劲上扬。传统经济学理论无法预测和解释欧元的波动,而欧美博弈,尤其是美国政府的态度,对于欧元的波动影响颇大。欧元虽然潜力巨大,但是冲击美元的霸主地位尚需时日。     

Beyond epistemological pluralism: Towards an integrated vision of the future

This paper is a response to Epistemological Pluralism in Futures Studies, featured as a special edition of Futures (42:2). Since that special edition was a response to Integral Futures, a previous special edition of Futures (40:2), this paper begins with a treatment of some of the critiques of IF, as well as the critiques of Ken Wilber and integral theory. I examine the validity of those critiques, focusing in particular on the accuracy of the “portraits” given of Ken Wilber and his contribution to integral theory. I also examine the claims of “epistemological pluralism” to determine whether it is a more appropriate framework for futures inquiry and practice. In this consideration, I treat epistemological pluralism (devoid of an “integrating” theory) as an expression of skeptical postmodernism. Finally, I conclude with a historical overview of integral theory.     

Networks and the future: A new methodological approach to envision and create the network society of tomorrow

This paper aims to illustrate how the combination of Network Analysis and Futures Studies becomes a powerful instrument for envisioning and analyzing futures and social change. The study of three cases shows network analysis becoming an analytical tool in futures studies while, at the same time, acquiring the dimension of change and dynamics steaming from the futurist perspective.     

博弈技术分析及在银行知识管理中的应用

作为知识社会的新的管理方式,知识管理有助于提高我国商业银行的综合竞争力。运用博弈论的方法,分析了商业银行知识管理中的隐性知识共享问题,指出客户经理间的长期合作和相互信任是合作的重要基础,并提出了相应的改善隐性知识共享的策略。     

Beyond the ticket and the brand: imagining an accounting research future

This paper presents a reflective critique of the current university environment and the state of accounting research with a view to envisaging the latter’s forward trajectory, particularly in terms of emerging subject areas, theoretical perspectives and methodological traditions. It considers the contemporary fixation upon research performance indicators and warns of their associated impact on the role and orientation of academic researchers. The emergence of specialist interdisciplinary and qualitative research communities within the accounting discipline are presented as opportunities for the invigoration of the accounting project. Nonetheless, the pursuit of research esteem indicators is argued to risk disengaging researchers from policy and practice concerns. Future roles, responsibilities and intentions of scholars are visited in the light of these observations.     

一个产业与一座城市的未来

大连试图通过发展软件产业和信息服务业,走一条低消耗、无污染、高产出、高科技密度、高信息密度的产业道路。如果大连能够在软件产业方面走出一条道路,那么对中国走新型工业化道路,无疑是提供了一个借鉴。大连想做一个探索。     

Working for an alternative future in US-Soviet relations

The founders of the Supplemental Ways of Improving International Stability (SWIIS) programme of the International Federation of Automatic Control believed that system analysts and engineers could make useful inputs to the work of conflict resolution. This article describes initiatives deriving from this programme and considers a system approach to reducing the continuing stand-off between the USSR and the USA. The goals to be attained and barriers to their attainment in this process are outlined.     

Leaning for the Tape: Evidence of Gaming Behavior in Equity Mutual Funds

We present evidence that fund managers inflate quarter-end portfolio prices with last-minute purchases of stocks already held. The magnitude of price inflation ranges from 0.5 percent per year for large-cap funds to well over 2 percent for small-cap funds. We find that the cross section of inflation matches the cross section of incentives from the flow/performance relation, that a surge of trading in the quarter's last minutes coincides with a surge in equity prices, and that the inflation is greatest for the stocks held by funds with the most incentive to inflate, controlling for the stocks' size and performance.     

对国有商业银行债权保护不足的信贷博弈分析

中国经济体制改革的初始禀赋决定了金融体制改革的进程,出于国家控制金融收益目的,国有银行在经历不同于国有企业产权结构的调整过程中,积累了巨额金融风险.本文比较了贷款人和借款人在不同法律及法律执行力约束下截然不同的博弈结果;分析在法律不完备环境下国有企业向国有银行借贷过程中存在故意逃债的道德风险激励行为;并认为新<破产法>中也存在一些模糊权利界定,对债权人权益保护不利.     

城乡税制公平论

农民负担表现为税费重,根子却在城乡社会不公。城乡税制的公平可以划分为三个层次上的公平,而我国现阶段应该并且可行的是实行第二层次上的公平,即城乡实行统一的税制,给予农民税收上的国民待遇。