Exploring techno-economic scenarios in an input-output model

The dynamic input-output model DIMITRI (Dynamic Input-output Model to study the Impacts of Technology Resulted Innovations) can be used for long-term scenario explorations on technology, demand and environmental effects. The model describes at a sectoral level the relations and dynamics between consumption, production and emissions. Technologies are introduced bottom-up at a sectoral level, through variations on the inputs from other sectors and by changes in the coefficients for capital, labour and emissions. This paper presents a methodology for future explorations of technologies in four scenarios, based on the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario framework. Trend analysis combines detailed information on specific technologies. Differentiations are made between scenarios, based on their specific storylines. The adjustment of coefficients influences model outcomes such as production, balance of trade and emissions. This paper briefly outlines the methodology and presents the main outcomes for four scenarios for the period 2000-2030.     

Enhancing the momentum strategy through deep regression

Momentum is a pervasive and persistent phenomenon in financial economics that has been found to generate abnormal returns not explainable by the traditional asset pricing models. This paper investigates some variations of the existing momentum strategies to increase profit and gain other desirable properties such as low kurtosis, small negative skewness and small maximum drawdown. We investigate these by using regression that is based on the latest techniques from deep learning such as stacked autoencoders and denoising autoencoders. Empirical results indicate that our regression-based variations can generate increased returns, and improved higher-order moments and maximum drawdown characteristics. Furthermore, our results reveal such improved performance can only be attained through the use of the latest deep learning technologies.     

Technologies in Finland in 2020 valued by ZEF-tool

In Northern Finland, information and communication technology, biotechnology, environmental technology and wellness technology have been subjects of special interest in recent times. These technologies are believed to create competence and bring welfare to the area. The aim of this study was to produce possible, probable and desirable pictures of the future for discussion and debate, and for use in strategic processes in different organisations. The idea was to explore the future based on experts’ opinions. The article discusses not only the technologies the experts saw as attractive and credible but also the issues they believed to be directing the development of the technologies in question.     

Globalisation and the environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labour and energy demand

This paper examines the effect of the structural changes arising from the globalisation of production and innovation and from technological changes on the environment. Drawing on theories of international production from international business and innovation, we assess the impact of long-term technological change and changes in international production on the international division of labour and energy demand. We select two industrial sectors with different technological characteristics (the textile, clothing and footwear sector and the chemical sector). We examine the effects of the globalisation of production and of technological change on these two sectors on the level of industrial production and resource intensity in different regions and countries over the last 30 years. We speculate on the impact of globalisation of production and innovation in future pervasive technologies—information technology, biotechnology and nano-technology. The implications of these developments on industrial greenhouse gases emissions are assessed.     

Emerging technologies in favour of sustainable agriculture

European agricultural systems are going through a modernisation process involving radical structural changes. To tackle these important challenges, technology foresight has been employed as a systematic, participatory, intelligence gathering exercise focusing on future R&D investments in sustainable agricultural systems and green technologies. Because reliable data on emerging technology are scarce, any assessment has to be based to a large extent on qualitative methods and on an operational conception of sustainability using priority indicators. The paper describes the Danish Green Technological Foresight on Environmental Friendly Agriculture (GTFEFA). It treats this as a case study and examines the way in which a group of interested parties arrived at recommendations on the application of a number of emerging agriculture-related technologies. Two questions are then addressed: Can technological foresight simultaneously: (1) systematically describe and evaluate the consequences of employing emerging technologies in order to choose between alternatives, and (2) prioritise investments in emerging technologies so as to favour innovation. The discussion here is intended to help meet the challenge of operationalising the term ‘sustainability’, so that environmental friendly agricultural technology can be assessed against priority indicators. Finally, it is suggested that, provided that clear criteria for assessing the sustainability of emerging technologies are identified and made explicit, technology foresight offers a space for dialogue and exploration in contested territory.     

Evaluation of the long-term effects of technological trends on the structure of employment

A method is proposed to project the effects of new technologies on employment structure, utilizing technology-specific information. A three-dimensional technology evaluation scheme is developed based on sectors of the economy, fields of application of new technologies, and mechanisms through which new technologies influence key economic variables. Rated impacts of each field of application via each mechanism for each sector can then be ascribed an ordinate value, with a further round of judgment to aggregate over different technologies, mechanisms and sectors. The approach is applied to project changes in the sectoral structure of employment in Germany in the 1990s if the diffusion of new technologies is accelerated.     

Cooperative Knowledge Processing: The Key Technology for Future Organizations

Drawing from the challenges organizations are faced with today, there is a growing understanding that future market success and long-term survival of enterprises will increasingly be related to the effectiveness of information technology utilization. This, however, requires us to intertwine much more seriously organizational theory and research in information processing than previously. In this paper we approached this aim from the perspective of radically decentralized, computerized enterprises. We further assume that organizations are increasingly process-oriented, rather than applying to structuring organizations based on task decomposition and assignment. This scenario reveals that, due to the inherent autonomy of organizational units, the coordination of decentralized organizational activities (workflows, processes) necessitates a cooperative style of problem solving. On this basis, the paper introduces the research area of cooperative knowledge processing, with a particular focus on multi-agent decision support systems and human-computer cooperative work. Finally, several important organizational applications of cooperative knowledge processing are presented that demonstrate how future enterprises can take great advantage from these new technologies.     

Frames and comparators: How might a debate on synthetic biology evolve?

A stimulated early public debate is frequently advocated when introducing an emerging technology like synthetic biology (SB). To debate a still quite abstract technology, participants functionally need a frame that determines which arguments are legitimate and which issues are relevant. Often, such frames are based on previous debates over other novel technologies. Three technologies currently provide frames for discussing SB: (green) biotechnology, nanotechnology and information technology. In the biotechnology debate, risk has long been emphasised over economic benefits. More recently, nanotechnology has been referred to mostly in terms of benefits, while risks tended to be an issue for scientific discourses. This has frequently been related to the many outreach activities around nanotechnology. Information technology, finally, has retained the image of being ‘cool’ and useful on a personal level. The technology itself is taken for granted and only the consequences of particular applications have been up for discussion. Upstream engagement exercises in SB will have to consider the comparator chosen more diligently, because it might influence the debate on SB ‘out there’ in the long run.     

High technology and long-term global problems

This article argues that high technology has the potential to facilitate the resolution of many major global problems before the 21st century. It pinpoints the important long-term problems of the present, and argues that the present global situation is unprecedented but has a viable alternative, realizable with the use of high technology and with social change. Finally, an approach to sociological research and social forecasting based on the modelling of global balances is identified, based on systems analysis methods.     

Scientific eventuality or science fiction: The future of people with different abilities

Consider this, we are living in a future [in-part] imagined over 30 years ago- in science fiction film and books. We may envision that 30 years from now we could live in a future with technology developed from the concepts we see in science fiction today. In this paper, the concepts of disability are challenged in the future based on the technologies imagined in the science fiction genre of the present and past. Focused on the sub-genre, Cyberpunk, current mainstream, as well as new emerging technologies inspired by science fiction are reviewed. Future disability is reimagined dependent on continued support and acceptance of the emerging technology. If our past is any indication, our future may lie in the conceptual and slightly implausible figments of our science fiction-based imaginations. However, the cultural shift will significantly impact our laws, regulations, and policies, as well as introduce new societal concerns.     

Acceptance of emerging technologies for corporate accounting and business tasks: An international comparison

Multinational enterprises make use of a variety of information technologies, and require access and usage of various databases and information sources. Based on a global survey, this study examines patterns of technology usage and impediments to such technology in a multinational setting. Past research indicates that culture has an impact on corporate activities, and thus, culture would theoretically affect use of emerging technologies for corporate accounting and other business tasks. This is an important issue as usage of information technology has been shown to affect corporate performance, specifically profitability. The results indicate that external, cultural, and technological differences between countries can significantly affect the use of emerging technologies in the accounting function.     

长期资产减值:公允价值的体现还是盈余管理行为

长期资产与流动资产相比,由于其使用期限长,公允价值更难寻觅,因此其减值政策的应用不仅对公司业绩的影响深远,而且主观性更强。那么《企业会计制度》出台后长期资产减值政策的执行状况如何,其追溯调整政策给公司减值行为会产生什么样的影响,公司长期资产减值是真实反映了长期资产未来收益能力的变化,还是盈余管理的行为,本文对此进行了研究。研究结果发现,我国上市公司在长期资产减值政策实施当年,普遍进行了长期资产的减值,并且证实不仅减值总额真实反映了长期资产未来收益能力的下降,而且追溯调整后计入当年损益的减值数额也真实反映了长期资产未来收益能力的下降。这一研究结果说明追溯调整政策为公司夯实长期资产,如实反映长期资产的公允价值提供了政策途径,并未演化成公司盈余管理的工具。     

A meta-analysis of factors affecting acceptance of information technology in auditing

Technology advancements provide opportunities for auditors to use new tools in the audit process. This study presents a synthesis of technology-related auditing research to identify factors affecting the use of technology in auditing. We analyze 88 studies in identifying 21 factors relevant to technology acceptance in auditing based on country of origin (developed or developing), user type (external or internal), type of technology (traditional or advanced), firm size (Big 4 or non-Big 4), and publication time (before and after 2013). Our results show that the most important factors in accepting technology from an individual perspective are facilitator conditions, perceived usefulness, and understanding of ease of use. Technology acceptance factors relevant to an organizational perspective are cost-benefit technology, competitive pressure, company readiness, and matching technology-task. Results suggest that perceived usefulness and subjective norm are more important in developed countries and Big 4 audit firms, while auditors in developing countries and non-Big 4 audit firms are more influenced by perceived ease of use, facilitating conditions, and organizational factors. Adopting traditional technologies is also more influenced by understanding the ease of use, subjective norms, and top management support than advanced technologies. This study contributes to the literature by assessing technology acceptance factors in auditing and thus provides policy, practice, and research implications.     

Is momentum a self-fulfilling prophecy?

The author shows in a simple framework that momentum trading can exist in equilibrium and that momentum trading is profitable. A property of the model is that the relation between risk, reward, and the intensity of momentum trading provides a natural limit to the amount of momentum trading that will exist in equilibrium. Properties of the model fit the empirics well. First, the model captures in a parsimonious manner both short-term overreaction and long-term reversals. Second, it predicts that momentum and long-term reversals should be observed in any market where there is noise. Thus, the model gives theoretical support to the empirical evidence that these anomalies are not artifacts of data snooping and to the extant empirical evidence that these anomalies are pervasive. Momentum traders observe noise shocks and trade on it as information. This trading incorporates a predictive role to the noise. That is, if agents believe a past price change to be informative of future price changes and act on this belief, it will be true and trading on this belief will be profitable. Thus, momentum trading is a self-fulfilling action.     

区块链技术对传统征信的变革研究

区块链技术具备的去中心化、共识决策、信息透明、不可篡改、无法抵赖、分布式数据库等特点,从根本上克服了目前基于观念、规制和经验的信用管理的理念和技术缺陷,这些特点恰恰是群体、社区和社会信用管理所需要的核心技术要素。区块链技术的应用对传统征信业务及其发展带来了理念、规程和技术等方面的变革,未来征信业将面临良好的发展前景。     

Employment and innovation in advanced communication technologies: Strategies for growth and the growth of employment

If recent political interest and media hype is to be believed, the ‘information society’ is at last upon us, and could signal the end of work as we know it. But what evidence is there of how these new information highways will change work? In this article, based on recent case-study research, a set of messages about how organizations are applying and responding to the new advanced communication technologies are presented. First, innovation was most successful where managers sought to mobilize the new potential of these technologies, rather than implementing rationalization and retrenchment. Second, in order to reap these benefits, it was necessary to adapt organizationally as well as to adopt the technology. Third, one innovation strategy is not good for all situations: the way forward is dependent on the current situation of the organization, rather than on general principles.     

Online relationship marketing and affective customer commitment – The mediating role of trust

The pervasive use of information technology has implications for consumer relationship management among financial services organisations. There is a need for increased understanding of how digital channels might influence the development and maintenance of firm–customer relationships and in particular the role of the Internet upon commitment and trust outcomes. Thus, this research aims to determine the relationship between online relationship marketing practices and affective customer commitment, and how this relationship is mediated by online channel trust. Data were collected from 200 online retail bank customers and Structural Equation Modelling was used to test the impact of five key online relationship marketing practices on affective commitment, and how trust mediates these relationships. We found that advocacy and collaboration have a direct relationship with affective commitment, while trust mediates the influence of engagement and personalisation on affective commitment. The article highlights the significance of trust in technology when using online channels to build customer relationships.     

大数据技术在国家重大政策措施落实情况跟踪审计中的应用研究

大数据技术在国家重大政策措施落实情况跟踪审计中的应用研究是近年来审计领域的热点问题。传统的国家重大政策措施落实情况跟踪审计方法对于数据的挖掘和使用存在一定的局限性不能做到全面和深入,因此存在审计发现的问题仅限于表面,无法发现更深层次问题的情况。本文基于Python的文本关键字提取、文本相似度计算和企业依存度计算,审计数据标准化常见问题及处理方法,Neo4j图数据库的审计应用,企业名称模糊匹配技术,特征工程技术方法及应用等,将这些大数据技术与国家重大政策措施落实情况跟踪审计相结合,找到大数据技术的着力点,分析了重大政策跟踪大数据审计理论实际应用,指出存在的问题,提出了改进措施。研究结果为在大数据环境下开展国家重大政策措施落实情况跟踪审计提供了理论依据以及技术手段。     

Computer-assisted teaching and learning in accounting: pedagogy or product?

The availability of cost-effective computer technologies is a dynamic that has the potential to dramatically change university accounting education. There are various motivations for university accounting departments to adopt computers and computer-assisted learning technologies, and a range of applications are available. The application of computer technologies has implications for student performance, efficiency and effectiveness within accounting departments, and course content—all of which should be considered. The possibilities for generating broad accounting education reform with computers are also significant.Computer technology should not be seen as a passive addition to the classroom. If driven by the desire to economise on the inputs to the educational process, or to expand the conventional content of accounting courses, such technology may have dysfunctional consequences.This paper examines the role of computer technologies in accounting education, the motivation for their introduction and use, and the impact they may have on the contemporary education of accounting students.     

The implications of innovation for human resource strategies

This article examines three issues. The first is the pervasiveness of technology use and the impact of technology use on performance in the Canadian manufacturing sector. The use of advanced technologies, particularly labour-enhancing ones, is found to be widespread. A strong connection between technology adoption and superior performance is also found. The second section examines the relationship between technology adoption and training in manufacturing firms. Firms using either labour-saving or labour-enhancing technologies are found to be more likely to train. The third section expands this analysis to examine how innovation-related strategies and activities are related to training. Innovation is found to be a key driver behind training in all sectors.