Development Bank lending: The Cameroon experience

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the lending activities of the Cameroon Development Bank, which was established to promote the economic development of Cameroon, particularly in the industrial field. It is found that most of the Bank's lending has been in the form of short-term loans for financing marketing activities, housing and household equipment, and that to this extent the Bank has not so far played its intended role in promoting industrial development. Consequently, it is suggested that in future the Bank should place greater emphasis on the granting of credits to finance industrial operations which utilize Cameroon's agricultural resources.     

Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844

From its foundation as a private corporation in 1694, the Bank of England extended large amounts of credit to support the British private economy and to support an increasingly centralised British state. The Bank helped the British state reach a position of geopolitical and economic hegemony in the international economic order. In this paper, we deploy recalibrated financial data to analyse an evolving trajectory of connections between the British economy, the state, and the Bank of England. We show how these connections contributed to form an effective and efficient fiscal–naval state and promote the development of a system of financial intermediation for the economy. This symbiotic relationship became stronger after 1793. The evidence that we consider here shows that although the Bank was nominally a private institution and profits were paid to its shareholders, it was playing a public role well before Bagehot's doctrine.     

The World Bank and agricultural development: Food production and rural poverty

Over the past decade, the World Bank has become the leading international institution for development financing and for elaborating new development strategies. This has involved a major shift in lending toward agriculture and rural development. Explanations for the change range from more progressive expertise within the Bank to the shock of the 1972-74 food crisis and renewed penetration of Third World agriculture by capitalist agribusiness. Discriminating among these perspectives requires attention to the core issue of the relationship between increasing food production and reducing rural poverty. The issue is irreducibly political, and the Bank's record is less encouraging than the reformist rhetoric.     

A note on stabilization and the World Bank

Balance-of-payments support has long been regarded as requiring only short-term or medium-term financing. It is not generally realized that the original intention at the time of Bretton Woods was that since balance-of-payments problems sometimes call for long-term financing, the World Bank should be empowered to provide such financing. The Bank's clear authority in this regard was allowed to atrophy, with the result that a major gap opened up in the operating functions of the Bretton Woods institutions.     

Fighting the forces of gravity - Seapower and maritime trade between the 18th and 20th centuries

How have large naval powers affected international commerce in history? Using a panel gravity model, we investigate the interactions of wars, alliances, naval power and trade from the 18th to mid-20th centuries. Striking an alliance with a naval power helps a country’s interstate commerce. Fighting a naval power on the other hand limits a country’s interstate commerce. Further, we split this effect on trade between an extensive effect (effect on a country’s trade when fighting a naval power) and an intensive effect (effect of that power gaining more naval strength). We conclude that the intensive effect is a powerful one - large navies have historically been destroyers of trade when mobilized to combat.     

Cost recovery in a project context: Some World Bank experience in tropical Africa

The shortage of government recurrent funding in Africa has led to widespread deterioration of public services. One reason for this shortage is the substantial consumption of public resources in Africa by parapublic organizations which elsewhere in the world cover costs or generate surpluses. In contrast, the World Bank emphasizes the development of institutions which cover costs either through sale of output or user charges. The Bank's experience with projects in non-market sectors is also of interest, e.g. primary education in which public subsidies predominate. Another reason for the shortage is that government budgeting – both revenues and expenditures – is rarely forward-looking. Aggregate future expenditure claims are often underestimated. Hence more attention to forward budgeting is needed. In general governments need to be far more concerned with getting projects which generate their own finance if broad-based public services are to become the rule.     

Briefwisseling tussen S. Vissering en N. G. Pierson

Summary The correspondence between Vissering (1818–1888), professor of economics at Leiden University, and the better known Pierson (1839–1909) which, in so far as it is available, is published here for the first time, contains many interesting comments on practical and scientific economic problems, current events, their own publications and those of others. One example is their endorsement of the government proposal to continue the Netherlands Bank's monopoly of the note issue when its charter expired in 1863 against the strong attacks of other economists who favoured free banking. A quarter of a century later they wrote about the renewal of the charter as insiders, Pierson then being President and Vissering one of the directors of the Bank.

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Briefwisseling tussen S. Vissering en N. G. Pierson

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Oud-ambassadeur.     

Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models,Forecasts, and Hunches

This paper reviews the role that model-based forecasts play in the monetary policy process in the United Kingdom, with particular reference to the Bank of England’s new quarterly model and continuing research into other statistical approaches. The Bank’s models provide a consistent framework for considering alternative scenarios and risks but judgement always plays a large role in constructing forecasts. It is hard to say precisely how important forecasts are in driving policy decisions, but there is some evidence that the rethink of key issues during the forecast round has been a source of policy surprises. Forecasts also play a central part in communicating the Monetary Policy Committee’s thinking to the outside world. But forecasts are highly fallible. So the MPC’s forecast centered approach to inflation targeting has gone hand in hand with a determined effort to illustrate the wide range of uncertainties around its central projections.Distinguished address presented at the Fifty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 9–13, 2005, London, England. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli, and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli, and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments.     

Free or central banking? Liquidity and financial deepening in Sweden, 1834-1913

During Sweden’s nineteenth-century modernization, Enskilda banks contributed to economic expansion and integration by providing generally accepted means of payment beyond what would have been possible for the central bank, the Riksbank. The Riksbank was constrained by specie-convertibility requirements for Sweden’s currency. Contrary to previous arguments, however, the Enskilda banks did not operate according to free banking theory. The Enskilda banks held Riksbank notes instead of specie as base-money reserves. This arrangement led to a higher supply of formal liquidity than what would have been the case with either a free banking system or a pure deposit-based commercial banking system. The consequence for Sweden was a rapid rate of monetization and financial deepening.     

How were the Federal Reserve Bank locations selected?

The Reserve Board Organization Committee decision to locate 12 Federal Reserve Banks is reviewed. Probability choice models estimate a city’s selection probability for a Federal Reserve Bank location. Results of predicted selections show reserve cities were selected for their spatial economic characteristics, including information contained in bankers’ preferences, infrastructure development, population and recent National Banking System growth, rather than Democratic Party politics. The Reserve Board Organization Committee placed Federal Reserve Banks in preeminent financial and commercial centers, and relied upon bankers’ preferences for the remaining non-obvious selections. Given 12 cities were to be selected, the conclusion drawn is the decision was in the public interest.     

Did banks cause the German industrialization?

In this paper, we discuss the causal relationship between growth of bank assets and economic performance (economic growth, capital accumulation, productivity). We analyze new data for German banking (Burhop, C., 2002. Die Entwicklung der deutschen Aktienkreditbanken von 1848 bis 1913: Quantifizierungsversuche. Bankhistorisches Archiv 28, 103-128.) and improved national accounting data (Burhop, C., Wolff, G.B., 2005. A compromise estimate of Germany’s Net National Product 1851-1913 and its relevance for economic growth and cycles. forthcoming, Journal of Economic History.) with several recent VAR/VEC based causality tests. Only weak evidence for a causal influence of banks on economic performance on a nation-wide level is detected. On the other hand, the results support the bank-led growth hypothesis for the modern sector of the German economy. In particular, joint-stock credit banks positively influenced capital formation during the early decades of Germany’s industrialization.     

Did firms cut nominal wages in a deflationary environment?: Micro-level evidence from the late 19th and early 20th century banking industry

This paper examines wage adjustment in the late 19th and early 20th centuries using personnel records from the Union Bank of Australia and Williams Deacon’s Bank (England). During the period of this study there was steep and prolonged deflation. Firm-specific and industry-specific demand shocks also put downwards pressure on wages. Although it was common for individual wages at the banks to remain unchanged from year to year, wage cuts were very rare even for senior workers. Turnover at both banks was extremely low and, thus, despite flexibility in the wages of incoming workers, did not offset the effects of individual-level wage rigidity. Consequently real wages moved counter-cyclically.     

Efficiency and Risk in Commercial Banks – Hybrid DEA Estimation

Abstract

The hybrid DEA model can solve the difference between radial inputs and non-radial inputs and evaluate efficiency. This is a pioneering study that uses the hybrid DEA model, evaluating the proportionate inputs with a radial measure and the non-proportionate inputs with a non-radial measure, in order to examine the impact of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the efficiency of Taiwan's banking sector from 2006 to 2010. In summary, this research demonstrates the following: (1) Only nine banks remained in the top efficiency list during these years: China Development Industrial Bank, Mega International Commercial Bank, Chinatrust Commercial Bank, Cathay United Bank, Bank of Kaohsiung, Industrial Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, Land Bank, and Bank of Taiwan. (2) Risk is an important factor that should be taken into consideration when evaluating banking efficiency. (3) From the hybrid DEA model, we find that most of the inefficient banks have an inefficiency factor caused primarily by too many NPLs (risk). (4) The efficiency of Taiwan's large-scale banks is significantly better than the small-scale bank. By looking at the inefficiency index, the large-scale bank's inefficiency is caused by NPLs. For the small-scale bank, both radial variables and non-radial variables have equal importance in improving its efficiency.     

Women doing men’s work and women doing women’s work: Female work and pay in British wartime engineering

Extreme demand pressures coupled with acute skill shortages in the run up to World War II caused British engineering companies to break down existing production processes into smaller constituent parts. This allowed the employment of persons trained over narrower ranges of skills and helped to create an exponential growth of female jobs, from 10.5% of total engineering employment in 1939 to 35.2% by 1943. Women were officially classified into those doing men’s work and those doing women’s work. Using a unique data set provided by the Engineering Employers Federation, this paper examines female work and pay from 1935 (the first year of rearmament) to 1942 (the peak of production activity) in more detail than has been previously undertaken. It features the pay and hours of piece- and time-rated women, female-male wage ratios, and an assessment of the war’s longer term impact on the female labor market.     

INTERNAL LABOUR MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM TWO LARGE AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYERS

This paper examines internal labour markets in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century using personnel records from the Union Bank of Australia and the Victorian Railways. Both employers hired young workers and offered them the possibility of very-long-term employment. Salaries were determined by impersonal rules, such as being attached to tenure and to position. Workers rarely received nominal pay cuts. This approach to human resources was designed to retain and motivate workers. We show that all of the classic features of internal labour markets used to describe American firms in the 1970s were present dating back to the Victorian period.     

Meeting basic needs: An overview

This paper summarizes some of the main issues related to the World Bank's basic-needs oriented lending programme. In particular, based on country experience it discusses the lessons learned with regard to sectoral policies and programming for their basic needs and their implications for future lending.     

Monetary Policy Implementation in Japan: What They Say versus What They Do

Since the 1970s, many central banks – including the Bank of England, the Bank of France, the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Japan – have announced that they have ceased direct credit controls. Researchers have tended to accept 'what they say', without gathering empirical evidence on 'what they do'. The Bank of Japan announced that it was abandoning direct credit controls in 1982. Since then, the monetary policy literature on Japan has focussed on formal policy tools, such as interest rates. This paper presents empirical research on the actual implementation of monetary policy by the Japanese central bank. The emphasis is on the period in the mid- to late-1980s when monetary policy was stimulatory and real-estate-related lending expanded rapidly, and the period in the early 1990s, when asset prices fell, resulting in the subsequent banking crisis and recession. The paper first briefly surveys the literature. Empirical research is then presented in three parts. Secondary sources are accessed to gain information on the mechanism of monetary policy conduct. New field work is then presented, which uses primary sources to probe the details of monetary policy implementation. Finally, econometric evidence is gathered to test various hypotheses concerning monetary policy procedures. The research successfully establishes the details and nature of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy implementation during the 1980s and early 1990s. The findings suggest the need for a modification of the generally prevailing view, as well as the need for further research on the actual implementation of monetary policy in other countries.     

Credit rationing and crowding out during the industrial revolution: evidence from Hoare’s Bank, 1702-1862

Crowding out during the British Industrial Revolution has long been one of the leading explanations for slow growth during the Industrial Revolution, but little empirical evidence exists to support it. We argue that examinations of interest rates are fundamentally misguided, and that the 18th- and early 19th-century private loan market balanced through quantity rationing. Using a unique set of observations on lending volume at a London goldsmith bank, Hoare’s Bank, we document the impact of wartime financing on private credit markets. We conclude that there is considerable evidence that government borrowing, especially during wartime, crowded out private credit.     

The death blow to unlimited liability in Victorian Britain: The City of Glasgow failure

In 1878, one of Britain’s largest banks, the City of Glasgow Bank, collapsed, leaving a huge deficit between its assets and liabilities. As this bank, similar to many other contemporary British banks, had unlimited liability, its failure was accompanied by the bankruptcy of the vast majority of its stockholders. It is generally believed that the collapse of this depository institution revealed the extent to which ownership in large joint-stock banks had been diffused to investors of very modest means. It is also believed that the failure resulted in bank shareholders dumping their shares unto the market. Our evidence, garnered from ownership records, trading data, and stock prices, offers no support for these widely held beliefs.     

The Great Growth Debate: A Statistical Look at Mankiw,Romer, and Weil, <Emphasis Type="Italic">versus</Emphasis> Islam

This paper takes a purely statistical look at two of the most important empirical growth papers authored by Mankiw et al. [1992] and Islam [1995]. MRW claim that the Solow model is justified only when human capital is added to the regression, while Islam claims that cross-country heterogeneity is the actual culprit. In a statistical sense, the author of this study finds that Islam was correct in the fact that mean heterogeneity does exist in MRWs data. However, after statistical adequacy is achieved, human capital continues to maintain its role as a significant determinant of growth even though the estimates are not robust for one of the two cross-country samples investigated. On the other hand, though Islams models were not without statistical problems, they continue to maintain their traditional form and his estimates are robust to respecification. This paper also exemplifies the need for objective statistical testing methods in applied work.