上市企业经营绩效的区域差异研究

本文研究上市公司经营绩效区域差异的分布特征,并从宏观经济因素、制度环境、产业结构和公司治理等方面分析了影响上市公司经营绩效区域差异的原因。研究结果表明:(1)三大经济地带上市公司的经营绩效在空间上表现出东——中——西逐渐递减的趋势;(2)市场规模、产业结构、固定资产投资、对外贸易、地区市场化、政府管理能力和法制化水平与上市公司绩效指标或部分指标之间表现为显著的正相关关系;(3)第一大股东持股比例与上市公司经营绩效之间具有倒U型关系,而股权制衡度与上市公司经营绩效之间具有显著的正相关关系。     

论改进上市公司管理层经营绩效的财务评价指标

目前，沪深上市公司管理层的薪酬主要是与年度利润挂勾的年薪制，管理层为了达标而施用各种手段的现象十分普遍，使得现有财务评价指标难以实现其功效。造成这种现象的原因是多．方面的。完善上市公司管理层现行的薪酬方式，应从改进上市公司管理层经营绩效的财务评价指标方面入手。     

四川上市公司治理结构与经营绩效关系实证研究

本以在沪深两市中上市的所有四川省上市公司的1998—2004年的截面数据，数据来源于深圳国泰安信息技术有限公司CSMAR数据库、巨灵金融数据库、中国证券监督委员会、上海交易所和深圳交易所。研究方法是首先进行描述性分析，然后研究经营绩效指标与各个自变量之间的相关关系，对公司经营绩效与各变量进行多元相关分析，并采用参数检验（F-检验、T-检验）以确定方程及各个变量的相关显性。采用的分析软件是SPSS12．0和SAS统计软件。     

上市商业银行股权结构与经营绩效研究

公司治理结构的基础是股权结构,合理的股权结构是形成有效公司治理的条件,而科学的公司治理结构又直接决定着公司的经营绩效。优化股权结构完善公司治理提高经营绩效。可选取17家具有代表性的上市商业银行,采用因子分析法计算衡量其经营绩效的综合得分,通过回归分析对二者关系进行实证研究,得到相应的结论,并提出提高经营绩效的对策及建议。     

我国上市公司并购绩效的实证研究

本文采用事件研究法和主成分综合评价法分别检验我国证券市场对上市公司并购事件的反应和上市公司并购前后经营业绩的变化，系统地考察了上市公司的并购绩效。……     

股票股利行为下的上市公司经营绩效分析——基于因子分析模型的实证研究

本文运用因子分析模型对发放了股票股利的上市公司A股的经营绩效进行分析,通过数学变换生成权数．从而避免了赋权的主观性。研究发现营运能力、成长能力与现金流量等六项指标是上市公司经营绩效分析的主要因子．通过比较确定公司的股本扩张能力、盈利能力与偿债能力指标是上市公司经营绩效的主要权重,投资者在进行投资时应综合考虑公司的各项指标并多方面进行分析．从而谨慎选择决策方案。     

民营上市公司高管持股比例与经营绩效的关系研究

本文选择具有代表意义的37家沪市民营上市公司为样本,研究其经营绩效与高管持股比例之间的关系,得出沪市民营上市公司高管持股比例目前较低,经营绩效与高管持股比例呈倒 U 型的二次曲线关系,开始随高管持股比例的提高而增加,随后又随其持股比例的提高而下降的结论。最后提出相应对策:在有条件的民营上市公司逐步推广股票期权计划,加强对上市公司高管持股的监管力度,引导民营上市公司积极健康发展。     

On Stock Market Returns and Returns on Investment

This article presents general conditions under which it is possible to obtain asset pricing relations from the intertemporal optimal investment decision of the firm. Under the assumption of linear homogeneous production and adjustment cost functions (the Hayashi (1982) conditions), it is possible to establish, state by state, the equality between the return on investment and the market return of the financial claims issued by the firm. This result proves to be, in essence, robust to the consideration of very general constraints on investment and the inclusion of taxes.     

投资者分歧、异常交易量和股票横截面收益率预测——基于中国股票市场的经验证据

本文定义月度异常交易量为本月与上个月交易金额的比值,发现中国市场月度收益率与滞后一个月的异常交易量显著负相关。在控制了公司规模、账面市值比、流动性以及动量效应等指标后仍然具有显著的解释作用。进一步研究表明,在出现高异常交易量后的12个月内,换手率和特质性波动率都有大幅上升。本文认为,交易量上升代表着市场分歧程度和受关注程度的增加,在卖空约束下会使得股票价值高估,从而造成未来收益率下降。     

Market States and Initial Returns: Evidence from Taiwanese IPOs

This paper investigates the different affecting patterns of the determinants of initial returns under different market states for Taiwanese IPOs. Contrary to the prior literature, this paper estimates the sample separated from different market states, including bullish, bearish, and range-bound markets, and finds that the affecting patterns of the determinants of initial returns indeed exhibit some significant differences under different market states. For instance, the stronger the auditor reputation effect, the lower are the initial returns under a range-bound market, and the market momentum effect is stronger under a bullish market. In addition, the risk perception effect is stronger under a bearish market. These findings show that the empirical result of dividing market states will provide more insights and a greater variety of information as investors make decisions.     

Stock Market Returns and Inflation Forecasts

This study uses data from the Livingston survey of expectations to examine the Fisher hypothesis as a model relating expected stock returns and expected inflation. We show that the Fisher hypothesis holds much better for ex ante expectations than ex post realizations.     

Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market

An intertemporal general equilibrium model relates financial asset returns to movements in aggregate output. The model is a standard neoclassical growth model with serial correlation in aggregate output. Changes in aggregate output lead to attempts by agents to smooth consumption, which affects the required rate of return on financial assets. Since aggregate output is serially correlated and hence predictable, the theory suggests that stock returns can be predicted based on rational forecasts of output. The empirical results confirm that stock returns are a predictable function of aggregate output and also support the accompanying implications of the model.     

On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy

Financial economists have long debated whether monetary policy is neutral. This article addresses this question by examining how stock return data respond to monetary policy shocks. Monetary policy is measured by innovations in the federal funds rate and nonborrowed reserves, by narrative indicators, and by an event study of Federal Reserve policy changes. In every case the evidence indicates that expansionary policy increases ex-post stock returns. Results from estimating a multi-factor model also indicate that exposure to monetary policy increases an asset's ex-ante return.     

An Examination of Long-Term Abnormal Stock Returns and Operating Performance Following R&D Increases

We examine a sample of 8,313 cases, between 1951 and 2001, where firms unexpectedly increase their research and development (R&D) expenditures by a significant amount. We find consistent evidence of a misreaction, as manifested in the significantly positive abnormal stock returns that our sample firms' shareholders experience following these increases. We also find consistent evidence that our sample firms experience significantly positive long‐term abnormal operating performance following their R&D increases. Our findings suggest that R&D increases are beneficial investments, and that the market is slow to recognize the extent of this benefit (consistent with investor underreaction).     

中国股票市场关于股票收益的两个假设的检验

使用方差比方法检验中国股票市场上股票收益服从随机游走的假设,检验结果拒绝了该假设。而使用Geweke和Porter—Hudak(1983)提出的分数差分检验,检验结果却支持股票收益存在长期记忆的假设。长期记忆性的存在使得有可能通过建立非线性经济计量模型以改进价格预测效果。     

南橘北枳:A股市场的经济关联与股票回报

本文系统检验并比较了中国A股市场中行业动量、区域动量、供应链动量以及科技关联动量等经济关联动量的显著性及预测周期。本文发现,中国股票市场中经济关联因子呈现出与美国股票市场不同的规律,在月度层面行业动量显著,而科技关联因子只在周度上具有显著的预测能力。进一步分析科技关联动量发现,中国股票市场中科技关联因子能预测目标公司未来1-3周的股票收益和未来基本面的变化,据此构建的多空策略能够产生周度0.16%的超额收益(年化8.67%);机制检验发现,科技关联因子预测期短的原因是由于中国股票市场中存在较多具有博彩倾向的散户投资者;有限注意和市场摩擦两个机制检验证明科技关联动量源自错误定价。进一步检验发现,科技关联动量在国有企业和创新政策颁布后更加显著。本文补充了现有A股市场的动量研究,有助于理解中国股票市场规律、提升资本市场有效性。     

Improved Methods for Tests of Long-Run Abnormal Stock Returns

We analyze tests for long-run abnormal returns and document that two approaches yield well-specified test statistics in random samples. The first uses a traditional event study framework and buy-and-hold abnormal returns calculated using carefully constructed reference portfolios. Inference is based on either a skewness-adjusted t -statistic or the empirically generated distribution of long-run abnormal returns. The second approach is based on calculation of mean monthly abnormal returns using calendar-time portfolios and a time-series t -statistic. Though both approaches perform well in random samples, misspecification in nonrandom samples is pervasive. Thus, analysis of long-run abnormal returns is treacherous.