Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

Financial reform and credit extension in Lesotho

The study on which this article is based was concerned with establishing whether the lending behaviour of Lesotho's commercial banks in relation to the private sector has changed following the reforms that have been implemented since 1980. The influence of macroeconomic variables on agricultural credit and on private sector lending provided through the existing commercial banks during the period 1980 to 1993 was examined. The results showed a high and significant association between total credit extension and the general performance of the economy. Macroeconomic variables such as returns on financial securities in Lesotho and bonds in the Republic of South Africa, bank discount rates and the interest rates on saving deposits applicable in Lesotho had a key effect on the extension of credit by commercial banks to the private sector. The study concluded that credit extension activities in Lesotho during the study period were sensitive to the macroeconomic environment.     

商业银行金融支持、商业信用与异质性研发投资

伴随中国经济转型及外部竞争的加剧,创新变得越来越重要。由于研发投资的高风险性和信息不对称等特征导致创新型企业普遍难以获得所需的债务资本。相比于外部间接筹资,与商品交易直接相联系的以分期付款和预付定金等形式存在的商业信用便成为低成本、高效率的融资渠道之一。基于此,通过实证检验商业银行金融支持、商业信用与异质性的研发投资之间的关系,以期寻找化解资本危机的渠道。首先证实了上市公司自身产生的现金流是研发投资的重要资本来源之一。其次,金融发展能够显著加强研发支出规模,且金融发展程度越高,企业规模的影响越小。在单独考察商业银行金融支持与商业信用对研发投资的作用后,结果表明两者均为重要的资本来源。此外,金融支持与商业信用之间存在互补关系,但商业信用对异质性研发的支持力度存在差异。     

Errors expected: the culture of credit in rural New England, 1750–1800

This article uses farm diaries from eighteenth‐century New England recast as account books in order to describe more accurately the rules of exchange and the culture of credit that prevailed in early America. This culture, which was post‐medieval yet pre‐modern, derived its fundamental characteristics from the fact that it connected participants who dealt with one another as formal equals before the law. It employed strategies inside and outside the market, and, rather than embracing or rejecting commercial activity, aimed to use whatever means necessary to achieve for householders the goal of comfortable independence.     

Location,location, location? Analysing property rents in medieval Gloucester

Although medieval rentals have been extensively studied, few scholars have used them to analyse variations in the rents paid on individual properties within a town. It has been claimed that medieval rents did not reflect economic values or market forces, but were set according to social and political rather than economic criteria, and remained ossified at customary levels. This article uses hedonic regression methods to test whether property rents in medieval Gloucester were influenced by classic economic factors such as the location and use of a property. It investigates both ordinary commercial rents and burgage rents (landgable), and explores the relationship between the two. It also examines spatial autocorrelation. It finds significant relationships between ordinary rents and property characteristics that are similar to those found in modern studies. The findings are consistent with the view that, in late medieval Gloucester at least, ordinary rents were strongly influenced by classical economic factors working through the urban property market. The findings also suggest that burgage rents reflected economic factors, even though they remained fixed over time.     

A simple test of the effect of interest rate defense

High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of future exchange rates, and risk premia. While much previous empirical work has been inconclusive due to offsetting effects, tests that “disaggregate” the effects provide significant information. Raising overnight interest rates strengthens the exchange rate over the short-term, but also leads to an expected depreciation at a horizon of a year and longer and an increase in the risk premium, consistent with the argument that it also signals weak fundamentals. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 612–636.     

Kasgeld en kasbelegging

Summary A restrictive monetary policy in the Netherlands is virtually a policy to adapt the pace of domestic inflation to the pace of inflation abroad. This aim is pursued by limiting the growth of transactions balances in case of a balance of payments deficit. Although in such circumstances the government uses to take recourse to inflationary financing, credit rationing and the rise of interest rates cause investment expenditures to slow down.Transactions balances are, contrary to what Keynes assumed, not completely held in the form of money. Slow components are invested in short term claims, mainly time and savings deposits. In the recent period of credit restriction in the Netherlands short term lending between enterprises has also grown considerably.The present tightness of liquidity in the Netherlands caused the banks to extend the assortment of various kinds of deposits that can be held by their customers. Competition between all financial intermediaries sharpened considerably. The commercial banks were succesful in penetrating the market for savings deposits but they are lagging behind the giro-services and the circulation bank as far as the increase of their demand deposits is concerned.It is not correct, as Albert Hahn did, to consider commercial banks as pure money creating institutions. The amount of their deposits of various nature depends upon how households and firms choose to distribute their financial assets and to what extent the banks, in competition with the other financial intermediaries, can satisfy their wishes.Openbare les, gehouden bij het aanvaarden van het ambt van lector aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam op dinsdag 19 december 1967.     

资本账户开放对商业银行风险的影响研究——来自新兴经济体的经验证据

资本账户开放对一国宏观经济至关重要。文章总结了资本账户开放影响商业银行风险的财富与估值效应、周期效应、道德风险效应和竞争效应,利用2011-2017年期间22个新兴经济体111家商业银行的微观数据,构建动态面板广义矩估计（GMM）模型实证检验了资本账户开放对商业银行风险的影响,并且进行了异质性检验。实证结果显示：（1）资本账户开放与商业银行风险呈正U型关系。（2）资本越雄厚、规模越大的商业银行抵抗资本账户开放影响的能力越强。为避免银行体系风险的过度积累,政府应考虑银行业资本充足情况与宏观经济情况,不断探索宏观审慎工具,合理安排资本账户开放程度。     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

融资成本能评价新型货币政策工具的有效性吗

提升货币政策效果是近年来我国宏观经济调控改革中的重要任务,而如何正确评价货币政策有效性则是这一任务的前提条件。基于此,结合我国经济新变化,文章在经典的CC-LM模型中纳入了新型货币政策工具,从理论上分析了新型货币政策工具对信贷利率与实际产出的传导机制,并应用具有时变参数的TVP-SV-VAR模型进一步检验了理论分析的结论。理论研究与实证检验一致得出：第一,从对实际产出的影响来看,中期借贷便利为代表的新型货币投放方式是有效的;第二,中期借贷便利仅能降低短期信贷利率,而长期将提升信贷利率;第三,中期借贷便利与LPR报价市场的市场化程度提升可强化货币政策有效性。此外,实证研究还表明,依靠中期借贷便利方式投放基础货币会造成吉布逊谜团的现象,因此能否降低融资成本并不能作为评价货币政策有效性的指标。籍此,文章对如何优化新型货币政策有效性提出了富有建设性的政策建议。     

The role of information sharing in trade credit distribution: evidence from Thailand

Prior research has shown that information sharing among lenders facilitates bank credit allocation and reduces default rates. We examine the role of information sharing in trade credit allocation using a sample of publicly traded firms in Thailand over the 1994–2005 period. Taking the establishment of a private credit bureau in 1999 as signalling improvement in information sharing among lenders, we obtain three main results in the improved information sharing period: (1) Thai firms have become less dependent on supplier credit; (2) financially constrained firms redistribute more funds via trade credit; and (3) the relationships between the use of trade credit and firm‐specific factors such as liquidity, free cash flow, tangible assets, interest cost ratio, and firm size weaken as information sharing improves. Our results are consistent with the view that better information sharing facilitates credit allocation. Hence, policies aiming at facilitating information exchange among financial intermediaries should be supported. We also find support for the view that bank credit substitutes for trade credit. This substitution lowers firms' cost of capital, given that trade credit is assumed to be more costly than bank loans.     

论我国绿色信贷法律制度的完善

绿色信贷对于实现经济的可持续发展具有重要的意义,是现代金融发展的一个重要趋势,然而,我国目前在绿色信贷制度方面尚存在诸多问题,有关绿色信贷制度的法律理念、法律主体、业务管理、信息共享和责任制度等方面均存在进一步完善的空间。为更好地发挥绿色信贷对经济可持续发展的作用,我们必须树立绿色信贷制度可持续发展的法律理念、明确政府、政策性银行和商业银行的绿色信贷法律主体地位、不断推进银行贷款管理制度创新、形成完善的信息交流与沟通法律机制并建立健全绿色信贷法律责任制度。     

Central bank policy making in competing payment systems

This paper analyzes the interaction between two payment systems. Administrators of both systems establish intraday credit interest fees, caps, and collateral requirements. Analysis of the model indicates that if a central bank does not take into account the effects that its policies have on its share of payment system transactions, then its efforts to contain risks associated with daylight overdrafts on its wire system will require a loss in its share of total transactions volume. If it does recognize the potential loss in its share of payments, then socially optimal policy instrument settings are unlikely to emerge.     

规模约束和资本约束下银行信贷管理研究

信贷管理是商业银行经营管理的核心内容,包括信贷规模管理和信贷合同管理两个方面,加强信贷规模管理和信贷合同管理是商业银行精细化管理的重要组成部分。在当前中央银行加强对商业银行规模控制以及实施新的《商业银行资本管理办法》的背景下,采用VAR方法和情景分析法实证分析了规模约束下和资本充足率约束下的信贷管理问题。结果发现：第一,规模约束直接影响商业银行的信贷规模,其中存款准备金率比存贷款利率对贷款规模影响显著,但存在4个月的时滞;第二,资本充足率约束直接影响到商业银行的信贷合同签订比例,按照新的资本管理办法,已签未贷合同需要增加资本金以覆盖其风险。     

EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE,MONETARY POLICY,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: ARGENTINA, 1993–2004

The exchange market pressure (EMP) against a currency has been frequently measured as the sum of the loss of international reserves plus the loss of nominal value of that currency. This paper follows the tradition of investigating the interactions between such a measure of EMP and monetary policy; but it also questions the usual omission of output growth in empirical investigations. The focus of this work is Argentina between 1993 and 2004. As in previous studies, we found some evidence of a positive and double‐direction relationship between EMP and domestic credit. But output growth also played a role in the determination of EMP, even more than domestic credit or interest rates. Also, there is some evidence that EMP affected growth negatively.     

Risk Sensitivity of Bank Stocks in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Across the Asian Financial Crisis

The present study examines the sensitivity of commercial banks' stock excess returns to their volatility and financial risk factors, measured by interest rates and exchange rates, across the recent Asian financial crisis. In general, we found that there were no significant differences among Malaysian commercial banks in their risk exposure prior to and during the Asian financial crisis. The introduction of selective capital controls, a fixed exchange rate regime and a forced banking consolidation program, however, had increased the risk exposure of both large and small domestic banks. The effects of these risk factors were significantly detected in both large and small banks.     

我国货币政策对房地产价格的非线性效应分析-基于MS - VAR模型的实证分析

通过建立三区制下的MSVAR模型,研究了货币量、市场利率、信贷余额和汇率对房地产价格的非线性影响。研究表明：各经济时期的区制转移特征明显,而扩张性的货币政策比收缩性货币政策更难发挥效果。经济扩张期下,利率政策能较好抑制房价;经济稳定期下货币供应量的稳定房价效果最好;而经济衰退期下前两种措施均失效,信贷渠道能发挥更大的作用。     

Survey of recent developments

SUMMARY Despite a bomb attack in Jakarta in August, the main financial indicators of macroeconomic health have continued to improve. Inflation is much lower than in 2002, and the exchange rate has remained fairly stable. Public debt as a percentage of GDP continues to fall, and foreign exchange reserves to increase. Deposit and money market interest rates have declined further, although this has yet to translate into significantly lower lending rates. Share prices have also been increasing rapidly, and Moody's recently upgraded Indonesia's credit ratings. The markets responded calmly to the largely political decision to terminate the IMF program at the end of 2003, reassured by a relatively conservative budget for 2004, and by the articulation of a longer-term strategy of balancing the budget by 2005.     

Calculating credibility: print culture,trust and economic figures in early eighteenth-century England1

Credit in early modern England has been studied by both social historians of the market and historians of the book. The intersection of these literatures is explored by asking the question: how did producers of books about interest (which was closely connected to credit) convince readers that their books could be trusted? One particular book is considered: a palm-sized book of interest calculations by John Castaing. Most importantly, and unusually, many copies of this book contain his signature, which, it is argued, must be interpreted in the context of the particular role that signatures played in guaranteeing financial transactions.     

Farm credit and credit demand elasticities in Shaanxi and Gansu

This paper empirically estimates individual household credit demand elasticities based on 897 farm households surveyed in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces in the People's Republic of China (PRC) in October 2009. We used survey-based experimental techniques to extract individual household credit demand functions from which we estimated point demand elasticities. From a theoretical point of view, we proposed that as interest rates fell the demand for credit increased in elasticity, and this appears to hold in our data. We find a range of elasticities with mean point estimates of about ? 0.6. We find that nearly 20% of farm households have nearly perfectly inelastic demands for credit but we also find that nearly 20% have elasticities above ? 0.75 including some 15% that have elasticities greater than ? 1.0. Previous studies that have argued against credit policies because of the low inelasticity of demand do not generally hold. There is much heterogeneity in credit demand and we would argue that a full spectrum of targeted credit policies can be used to address differences across farms.