Financial Integration in the 1920s: A Cointegration Approach

Financial Integration in the 1920s: A Cointegration Approach. - This paper applies the concept of cointegration to analyze the foreign exchange market during the 1920s. The data set consists of daily spot and forward exchange rates for the U. S. dollar, French franc, Belgian franc, Italian lira and German mark, each quoted with respect to the British pound. The authors find that the future spot and forward exchange rates for the U.S., France, Belgium, and Italy are cointegrated. Using a multivariate test for cointegration, they find no evidence of cointegration across markets. There is weak evidence of cointegration among the two neighboring economies of France and Belgium.     

揭露美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机真相

美国次贷危机爆发两年来,国内外经济学界以及政界都对此进行了深入研究,观点主要集中在市场主体和监管主体的"有限理性"、内外部经济结构失衡和货币政策环境的影响、全球金融货币体系制度设计的缺陷、以及资本主义制度基本矛盾等几个方面,试图勾画组合出一幅危机的完整图象。但因缺少一条逻辑主线将这些正确的归因与少数为了转移矛头故意歪曲事实真相的借口有机串连,致使图象主题不够立体、清晰。为了更好地认清危机的实质,本文运用中华文明辨证逻辑思维这条主线,深度透视危机的本源,还原危机背后的真相,揭露真正的幕后元凶及其支配主体行为的片面思维逻辑,以便呈现出一幅更为清晰、立体的美国次贷危机全景图。     

Effects of Exchange Rates on Debt, Debt Services and Public Debt Management in Thailand in the 1980s

This paper attempts to evaluate the effects of exchange rates on debt, debt services, and public debt management in Thailand in the 1980s. A simple differentiation technique is used to decompose the changes in debt and debt services into 'management' and 'exchange rates' effects. The latter became more pronounced in the second half of the 1980s largely because of the increased volatility in exchange rates among key currencies. The public sector responded to these changes by adjusting the debt portfolio through new commitment and refinancing, as well as restricting the level of external debt. As a result, a significant amount of debt services was saved in 1989, when the exchange rates among major currencies began to settle down, although the same adjustments initially led to temporary increases in the levels of debt and debt services during the mid-1980s.
Moreover, the diversified structure of public external debt made it possible to compensate a change of debt or debt service in one currency denomination by a counter change of those in another currency denomination. Such a compensating relationship (e.g. between Yen and US dollar during 1985–87) helped stabilise the effects of exchange rates. The baht is now pegged to a basket of currencies. In theory the effects of exchange rates may be completely neutralised if the debt portfolio reflects the weight of each currency in the basket. Such relationships may be incorporated to improve the efficiency of public debt management.     

The North European depression of the 1920s

Abstract

While the rest of the world enjoyed relative prosperity during the 1920s, Northern Europe remained depressed. In particular, Britain and Scandinavia suffered relatively high rates of unemployment. In this paper, we investigate the links between the North European Depression and currency overvaluation. The role of currency overvaluation has received much attention in the British case, but has been relatively neglected in the economic history of Scandinavia (in the English language, at least).     

Business responses to crisis in Indonesia: the 1930s and the 1990s

This article looks at the responses of foreign business firms to crisis in a comparative historical perspective. The focus is on Indonesia in the 1930s and the late 1990s. The main approach is one of case studies in order to gain an insight into strategies of adjustment to deteriorating business conditions. For the late 1990s, such information is supplemented by macroeconomic evidence covering a wider range of firms. The article reaffirms a basic resilience of foreign direct investment in times of economic crisis even when there is an overall economic decline, as in Indonesia in the 1990s. The capacity of foreign firms in Indonesia to adjust successfully was considerable both in the 1930s and the late 1990s. Yet, prospects for a swift recovery are far better in the latter case than in the former period, reflecting the different nature of the two crises.     

The competitive position of the finnish sawmill industry in the 1920s and 1930s

Abstract

The days of glory of the Finnish sawn timber exporters lasted from the beginning of the twentieth century to the early 1930s. During this period the sawmill industry was unquestionable the major industrial sector in the country, measured by the gross value of its output. In foreign trade, sawn timber accounted for about 40% of Finland's total exports. In some years nearly half of the total export revenue was earned by this sector alone. At the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s, sawn timber accounted for only 7-8 % of exports and the sawmill industry had slipped far from the top, even measured by total output value.     

Japan’s return to gold: Turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s

We identify turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s to determine which factors were perceived by market participants as affecting Japan’s probability of returning to the gold standard. The 1920s were marked by military expansionism, political turmoil, and other dramatic political and institutional events. We conclude that changes of power between the Kenseikai and Seiyukai parties and worsening diplomatic relations with China were primarily responsible for turning points in the value of the yen. The democracy movement and the associated expansion of suffrage seem not to have been viewed as important by contemporaries.