Inflation and the wage lag during the American Civil War

This paper examines the role of inflation in financing the American Civil War, and the effects of that inflation on the level of real wages in the North. A wage determination model is specified in which the equilibrium real wage is determined by real forces and the money wage is allowed to adjust to its equilibrium value with lags. Econometric estimates of the model support Wesley Clair Mitchell's contention that wage movements lagged price movements during the war. Comparison of the estimated equilibrium money wage and the estimated current money wage makes it possible to assess the magnitude and importance of the wartime redistribution of income attributable to inflation.     

Engineering and the First World War: A case study of the Lancashire cotton spinning machine industry

This paper investigates the impact of the First World War on one of the major British engineering industries - that of cotton textile machinery. From 1915 all the important firms came under direct Government control and were required to give priority to munitions manufacture. The consequent decline in machinery output combined with the disruptions to international trade drastically reduced exports. Since Britain was the foremost supplier to the world market, the growth of cotton manufacturing was directly affected. The varied response to this in the different markets forms the central focus of our study.     

Latin American manufacturing and the First World War: An exploratory essay

In the 1960s many writers on Latin America accepted the idea that the conditions for industrial growth were most propitious when international commercial and financial flows were disrupted, as in the First World War. Recent work has raised doubts, however, about the extent of manufacturing expansion between 1914 and 1918, while drawing attention to the growth of industry in the 20 years preceding 1914. This paper, through a discussion of the secondary literature and a sampling of primary sources on five countries, seeks to explain why increases in production and profits during the war were not accompanied by significant new investment or a diversification of Latin America's industrial structure.     

Price formation on clandestine markets: the case of the Paris gold market during the Second World War

Because of the scarcity of data, there are few quantitative analyses dealing with clandestine markets, despite their prime importance during wartime. This article exploits a unique database of daily prices of gold coins traded in occupied Paris in order to gain insights into the price formation on such a market. First, using data from Switzerland, we show that arbitrage took place, despite the costs and risks involved, and led to a gradual (but incomplete) convergence of gold prices. Furthermore, a study of price seasonality reveals that less strict borders controls during the weekends made the volatility of returns higher at the start of the following week. Second, on the basis of an event study, we provide evidence that laws related to black markets did not have a significant impact on the gold price, except for the most severe law passed on 8 June 1943 which greatly increased the sentences for involvement. Finally, we assess whether the so‐called coin premiums existed on this clandestine market, and show that the large price variations for one gram of fine gold contained in different coins were due to market participants’ preferences for specific gold coins.     

Regime change and debt default: the case of Russia, Austro-Hungary, and the Ottoman empire following World War One

We consider the effect of the three largest regime changes following World War One on the foreign debt repayments of the succeeding regimes. The Bolsheviks repudiated the Tsarist debt, both external and internal in early 1918, and could not borrow internationally until the 1970s. The Austro-Hungarian successor states, with the exception of Romania, remained on good terms with lenders, and quickly gained access to foreign capital. However, the Ottoman successor states entered into protracted negotiations before accepting responsibility for a share of the debt, which meant they faced a lengthy delay before being able to re-enter the international capital market. We analyze these events using a game theoretical model of incomplete information, whereby capital markets can not directly observe a government’s ‘type.’ We find that there were two main economic reasons why countries did not settle their debts after their regimes changed. Some countries, in particular Russia, did not value continued credit market access as highly as before, and second that international lenders will not trust a regime in default with a new loan.     

Social trust and international trade: the interplay between social trust and formal finance

Social trust can facilitate access to alternative sources of finance to firms when formal finance is scarce or entails large transaction costs, especially in economies with less developed financial systems. Since exporting firms are relatively more dependent on external finance, we find that high levels of social trust in an economy with a relatively less developed financial sector have positive effects on exports. We combine the World Values Survey that provides information on social values and the UN Comtrade data for the period 1995–2007. Our analysis is carried out at the level of bilateral trade in 2-digit and 3-digit digit industry classifications that not only allows controlling for industry-level heterogeneities but also mitigates concerns of potential reverse causality.     

Inflation,interest rates,and the balance of payments during a financial reform: The case of Argentina

In order to evaluate the impact of recent financial reforms on the Argentine economy, this paper presents the results of estimating a small, monthly structural model of the Argentine economy which emphasizes the linkages between the financial system, inflation and the balance of payments. The results are used to examine the portfolio interest rate elasticities of both the financial and non-financial sectors, the determinants of the real levels of and spread between the loan and deposit interest rates, and the responsiveness of inflation and the balance of payments to various policy measures.     

Price instability and inflation: The Latin American case

This paper provides empirical evidence substantiating the existence of an over-time relationship between inflation and price variability for 23 Latin American countries, by employing a novel measure of price instability based on price expectations.     

Making profits in wartime: corporate profits,inequality, and GDP in Germany during the First World War1

Making profits in wartime: corporate profits, inequality, and GDP in Germany during the First World War. This article reconsiders, and rejects, Kocka's (1973) hypothesis that a strong income redistribution from workers to capital owners occurred in Germany during the First World War. A small number of firms profited from the war, but the majority experienced a decline in real income, similar to the decline in workers' real wages. This finding also has important implications for the political history of the Weimar Republic. The authors also use their figures to improve German GDP estimates for the war period, since their sample makes it possible to estimate private service sector development. Economic indicators were worse for the war year of 1917 than previously believed.     

Government decisions before and during the First World War and the living standards in Germany during a drastic natural experiment

The First World War hit Germany severely, particularly the agricultural sector, because the outbreak came unexpected and its duration exceeded all expectations. Many resources necessary for agricultural production were required by the war economy and led to shortages and shrinking supplies. Many agricultural laborers were drafted and the blockade imposed by the allies prevented Germany from a great deal of imports. As a consequence, the nutritional situation was devastating, particularly after 1916, and hit all groups of the German society.The period under observation provides one of most drastic natural experiments in the 20th century. This study uses anthropometric data from German soldiers who served in the Second World War to trace living standards between the 1900s and the 1920s. In contrast to other approaches, this paper is able to distinguish between social groups by occupation, religious denominatio\n, regional origin, and city size. The results suggest that although all social strata were hit by famine conditions, the height of farmers, urban citizens, Catholics, and especially individuals born in the highly integrated food-import regions along the coast and the banks of the Rhine declined most.     

Dutch and Danish agricultural exports during the First World War

Abstract

The Danish agricultural sector continued to maintain agricultural exports to Great Britain during the First World War, even when higher prices ruled on the German market. Dutch agricultural exporters, 011 the other hand. continued to sell to the highest bidder; until, in 1916, British pressure forced them to do otherwise. It was not the Danish government but the Danish cooperatives who were responsible for Danish agricultural export policy, especially in the first years of the war. More than was the case with the Dutch exporters, the Danes were highly dependent on the British market. The strong Danish cooperatives (in contrast to the weaker Dutch agricultural organizations) forced the Danish government to support their strategy in order not to lose their suppliers to the newly establishedfirms who were exporting to Germany.     

船舶建造分包的风险规避研究——以某公司出口全回转拖轮建造为例

分包是船舶建造行业广泛采用的一种生产形式,但存有风险。分包过程中的风险识别与管理已成为中小船厂当前急需解决的问题。无锡红旗船厂有限公司利用工作分解结构法与专家调查法,对生产出口拖轮建造项目的分包风险进行分析;根据帕累托二八原理,制定了规避主要风险的应对措施,效果良好。文章对此进行了详细表述。     

冷战后美国核政策的调整趋势及影响

冷战结束以来,美国四任总统先后对美国核政策进行了一系列调整。虽然这种调整仍处于不断的发展演变之中,但其呈现的调整趋势已然有轨迹可寻:一是核武器的实战作用在逐步下降,二是核武器的打击对象从固定明确转向灵活模糊,三是核力量建设从旧三位一体向新三位一体发展,四是防扩散在核政策中的重要性日益上升。透过美国核政策不断的调整演变,可以发现其不变的四个基本原则:绝对优势原则、领导主导原则、灵活选择原则和核先发制人原则。由于冷战后美国核政策调整的趋势和原则深刻地体现美国自身安全利益考量的本位立场,而这一立场与国际防扩散目标存在难以调和的龃龉。美国在国际社会不断强化防扩散机制、提出无核世界的主张、倡导裁减核武器等一系列举措,虽然能在一定程度上对国际防扩散和反核运动起到推动作用,但其核政策对国际安全环境也造成诸多负面影响,使国际社会安全感普遍下降,使无核世界的目标遥不可及,最终也会使美国难以摆脱恐怖主义与核武器扩散相结合的安全梦魇。     

International migration: a case study of South Africa

"South Africa, which has traditionally been a popular destination for international migrants, is currently experiencing a net loss of legal migrants, but an enormous gain of illegal immigrants. This article analyses trends in legal international migration to and from South Africa and provides a demographic profile of legal immigrants and emigrants. The reasons for and results of the influx of illegal immigrants into the country are discussed, and possible policies and strategies to reduce this influx are presented."