现行政策下商业地产的发展趋势

一、现行宏观政策对商业地产的影响 从2004年起，鉴于政策导向，商业地产开发变得炙热起来。由于商业地产的利润比住宅开发要平均高出5％N10％，吸引了越来越多的投资者转向商业地产的开发。2005年1月1日开始，跨国零售商已开始在中国的全方位扩张。外资的到来推动国内商业市场发展，为商业地产带来巨大商机。2006年至2008...     

Local public goods and the demand for high-income municipalities

Affluent towns often deliver high-quality public services to their residents. I estimate the willingness to pay to live in a high-income suburb, above and beyond the demand of wealthy neighbors, by measuring changes in housing prices across city–suburban borders as the income disparity between the two municipalities changes over time. I find that a $10,000 increase in town-level median income is associated with a seven percent increase in housing values at the border. The estimated demand for high-income municipalities is primarily driven by school quality and lower property tax rates.     

城市商品住宅价格水平影响因素研究

商品住宅价格问题是社会关注的焦点问题.以全国35个重点城市1999年-2005年数据为基础,研究城市住宅价格水平的影响因素.研究显示,代表城市经济发展水平和居民收入水平、单位面积土地投入、城市区位和城市环境等侧面的职工平均工资、单位面积固定资产投资、人均铺装道路面积、距海岸线的距离、通过城市的国道数量、建成区绿化覆盖率这6个因素是影响城市住宅价格水平的主要因素.可以预期,当一个城市的这些因素发生相对变化和绝对变化的时候,城市的住宅价格水平必然会发生相应的变化.阳光充足、水资源丰富、交通便捷的近海地区城市的商品住宅价格变动幅度会由于经济发展、人口增加、区住条件进一步优化、投入加大等各种条件的较大变化而高于其他城市.     

新时期完善我国房地产市场体系研究

由于我国住房供给制度不够完善,致使住房供给和需求不匹配。高收入者能够购买多套住房,而低收入者却买不起房,只能借助于住房保障体系解决居住问题。由于国内外多种因素的影响,市场商品房价格不断提高。政府若能积极完善好住房保障体系,便能解决社会中大多数低收入者的住房问题,逐步下降商品住房房价。本文认为,我国房地产市场的主要问题是供给和需求体系的不匹配,社会低收入者住房保障不够完善。故此总结了新时期我国房地产市场发展的新问题,并深入分析了房地产市场体系中的缺陷,提出了完善房地产市场体系的措施和方法。     

When worlds collide: Different comparative static predictions of continuous and discrete agent models with land

This paper presents a difference in the comparative statics of general equilibrium models with land when there are finitely many agents, and when there is a continuum of agents. Restricting attention to quasi-linear and Cobb–Douglas utility, it is shown that with finitely many agents, an increase in the (marginal) commuting cost increases land rent per unit (that is, land rent averaged over the consumer's equilibrium parcel) paid by the consumer located at each fixed distance from the central business district. In contrast, with a continuum of agents, average land rent goes up for consumers at each fixed distance close to the central business district, is constant at some intermediate distance, and decreases for locations farther away. Therefore, there is a qualitative difference between the two types of models, and this difference is potentially testable.     

DOES FDI ACTUALLY AFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY? INSIGHTS FROM 25 YEARS OF RESEARCH

While there are 25 years of empirical research on how FDI may affect income inequality, there is surprisingly no consensus on this issue. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis on the effect of FDI on inequality using 543 empirical studies from 1995 to 2019. Among various factors, we find that the development level of the study country has the strongest influence on the direction in which FDI affects income inequality. When the primary studies are sorted into three groups based on the GDP per capita of their sample areas, the within-group estimates on the effect of FDI on income inequality become strongly consistent with each other. Particularly, we find that FDI is associated with higher inequality for the low-income group, has no statistically significant effect for the middle-income group, and is associated with lower inequality for the high-income group. This observation suggests that FDI may increase income inequality as a country initially develops, but reduce inequality as development deepens.     

公共财政支持住房保障的政策研究——以浙江省为例

随着我国城镇住房市场化水平的提高,急剧攀升的地价和房价使得部分中低收入家庭的住房支付能力不足,住房困难问题日益突出,迫切需要加大公共财政支持保障房建设的力度。本文通过分析浙江省利用公共财政支持住房保障的现状、保障房建设资金来源,对其资金需求进行预测,建议加大财政支持力度、搭建省级融资平台、建立保障房基金,采取BOT或BT形式的财政投资合作建房模式提高财政使用效率,因地制宜根据各地房地产市场发展程度采取适合的保障方式,并加快制度和机构建设。     

住房保障对象划分研究

住房保障对象划分是住房保障体系建立的一个重要环节,通过借鉴国际经验,结合我国实际,依据住房消费收入比、房价收入比等指标,采用统计分组法与倒推法相结合的方法来划分识别城镇住房保障对象,得出我国现阶段城镇住房保障对象应涵盖城镇居民中的最低收入户、低收入户和中等偏下收入户,保障住房覆盖率为40%.对最低收入家庭和低收入家庭,应采用租金补贴方式;对中等偏下收入家庭,可采用租金补贴也可采用购房补贴方式,具体可由被保障对象自由选择.     

An open-city model with nonmalleable housing

Previous city and housing models are extended to allow for the nonmalleability of housing and two classes of residents. The model, which is framed in the context of a monocentric circular city, assumes an individual housing unit to be defined in terms of attributes (quality and residential density). The quality of a given housing unit can be varied without adjustment costs, but changes in residential density on a particular site require prior demolition of the existing structure on the site. Producers of housing and consumers are assumed to be myopic. By assuming that the city is in short-run equilibrium at each point of time, it is shown that the pattern of land use observed at any stage depends on the past history of the city and the current rates of population growth. The possibilities for filtering of houses from one income group to another are also discussed briefly.     

A vintage model of urban growth

This paper develops a vintage model of residential housing for an open city, where the utility level of residents is given by an exogenous function of time. Producers behave myopically in that they believe the future price per unit of housing services will equal the current price. Demolition occurs when the expected present value of profits from continuing to operate an existing structure equals the expected present value of profits from redevelopment. The model is analyzed under the assumption of Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions and constant rates of growth for income, commuting cost, the utility level, and the prices of non-land capital and agricultural land. Computer simulation provides a concrete example of a city which grows according to the model.     

多空间尺度普通住宅用地的合理地价研究

本文通过房价收入比、地价房价比的关系对住宅市场地价水平的合理值进行估计,用区间分析法来研究普通住宅用地的合理地价区间。考虑到区域差距、行业收入差距大,对国家级、省市级、地区级甚至细化到城市的环线和小区级别,对不同空间尺度下的中等收入家庭年收入等参数进行分析,来估计不同空间尺度下的普通住宅用地的合理地价水平。这有助于建立风险预警系统,引导房地产业向健康稳健方向发展。     

Who Moves to Mixed-Income Neighborhoods?

This paper uses confidential Census data, specifically the 1990 and 2000 Census Long Form data, to study the income dispersion of recent cohorts of migrants to mixed-income neighborhoods. We investigate whether neighborhoods with high levels of income dispersion attract economically diverse in-migrants. If recent in-migrants to mixed-income neighborhoods exhibit high levels of income dispersion, this is consistent with stable mixed-income neighborhoods. If, however, mixed-income neighborhoods are comprised of homogenous low-income (high-income) cohorts of long-term residents combined with homogenous high-income (low-income) cohorts of recent arrivals, this is consistent with neighborhood transition. Our results indicate that neighborhoods with high levels of income dispersion do in fact attract a much more heterogeneous set of in-migrants, particularly from the tails of the income distribution. Our results also suggest that the residents of mixed-income neighborhoods may be less heterogeneous with respect to lifetime income.     

城市空间结构理论——单中心城市静态模型

首先介绍了在西方城市经济理论中被广泛接受的单中心城市空间结构静态模型。然后,利用比较静态分析方法(comparativestaticanalysis),分析区位、居民收入及交通费用(区位,居民收入及交通费用为模型的外生变量(exogenousvariable))对价格和房屋消费量(价格和房屋消费量为模型的内生变量(endogenousvariable))的影响。最后,理论模型通过引进一般住房生产函数,推导出土地价格及资本密度(即建筑高度)的空间变化规律。通过对城市经济模型进一步分析(对极值条件或解的微分解析分析)得出地价(地租),资本密度(或称容积率),人口密度的空间分布规律,这些规律对城市规划,城市政策,引进市场原则和价格机制来提高城市土地利用效率都有理论指导意义。     

城乡交错区农村住房租赁市场:资源与收入配置效应

本文对杭州市城乡交错区农村住房租赁市场的资源配置与收入配置效应进行了详细分析。研究发现,村庄外来劳动力比重对住房租赁市场的发育影响较大;家庭人均住房建筑面积与农户出租面积关系密切。住房租赁市场的发育提高了宅基地利用效率,并一定程度上促进了住房投资。住房出租的租金收入在农户家庭收入总额中已经占到了不小的份额,这意味着住房租赁市场的发育有利于农户家庭收入的提高。     

LAND MARKETS AND THE EFFECT OF REGULATION ON FORMAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN URBAN INDONESIA

Until recently, urban land and housing markets in Indonesia seemed to function well. Informal-sector development provided low-income housing affordably. Through government programs, formal-sector developers could build housing for all but the poor. Since 1989, however, daily conversation pictures land speculation as rampant and formal-sector housing as rising beyond the means of the middle class. Newspapers carry stories of conflicts between small landowners and large developers with government officials in between. This article investigates this situation by addressing two related questions: are urban land prices rising “too fast?”; how do land regulations and development practices affect costs, and who pays these costs? The article includes quantitative estimates of urban land prices, changes in urban land supply, movement of land through the permitting process, and the effect of development regulations on costs. Data come from a literature survey and interviews of some of the largest formal-sector developers in Indonesia. A principal finding concerns a development regulation called a “location permit” and the “social function” of land in Indonesian law. Although helpful as a means of assembling land in Indonesia's highly fragmented land markets, location permits allow formal-sector developers to hold land off the market and pay low prices to small landowners. Ultimately, the “social function” of land under Indonesian law holds down the price formal-sector developers pay for land, but not at the price at which they sell their product. The article concludes by proposing reforms to the regulatory process.     

Growth and Distributional Impacts of Urban Housing Supply: An Application of Urban Land Use and a CGE Model For Seoul

This paper assesses economic effects of housing supplies on the urban growth and income distribution of Seoul, using an urban land use and Computable General Equilibrium model of Seoul economy. The simulation shows that the housing development with the conversion of the green or the industrial land uses into the residential land use leads to an increase of the Gross Regional Product by approximately 1% at the worse income inequality. The aggregate welfare effects in terms of Hicksian Compensating Variation range from 1.746 trillion Korean Won to 1.768 trillion Korean Won on a ten-period average, depending on the type of the land conversion.     

美国以创新性区划促进可支付住宅发展的经验和启示

为满足中低收入家庭的居住需求,美国旨在推动可支付住宅建设的创新性区划得到了快速发展.创新性区划包括弹性区划、奖励性区划和包容性区划等多种形式,创新性区划的实施使美国地方政府在不扩大地方财政支出的前提下,有效增加面向中低收入家庭的可支付住宅的供给,缓解社会中存在的居住隔离状况.本文介绍了创新性区划的发展历程和实践情况,并分析了其所具有的积极作用以及面临的挑战.     

Urban residential land rent function: An alternative Muth-Mills model

The urban residential land rent function has been studied extensively in the field of urban economics, and the land rent function of Muth and Mills is considered to be one of the typical functional forms which is used in empirical studies. However, the model of Muth and Mills simply assumed the demand function for housing services to be a power function of income, which gives rise to a question. The main purpose of this paper is to derive an alternative form of the urban residential land rent function which is consistent with the utility maximization behavior of consumers and to discuss the estimation procedure of the derived land rent function.     

Sources of downward bias in estimating the demand income elasticity for urban housing

Housing demand studies, whether relying upon individual or grouped data, have limited their observations to similar housing units and/or similar housing consumers to help control for product heterogeneity. Yet similar housing units tend to locate in clusters; tenants tend to segregate by race and income. The unintended results may be: (1) for grouped data, selection of a product subgroup with a supply price elasticity small enough to matter; (2) for individual data, selection of a consumer subgroup possessing a lower income elasticity than all housing consumers. Evidence is given that the supply price elasticity is sometimes small enough to matter when grouped data are used.     

On the optimal distribution of income among cities

In a competitive land market, different consumers will bid differing amounts to be located at one or another points in space. This article demonstrates that consumers fare better by competing in land markets where other competitors have different bid structures than they. Since income has a strong effect on one's bidding, the paper formally proves that poor consumers would, ceteris paribus, prefer to locate in cities with rich consumers and vice versa. With respect to the market for urban land, the inference is that cities heterogeneous in income are preferred by all to homogeneous ones.