持续经营审计意见、分析师跟踪与融资约束

以2011-2016年我国A股上市公司数据为研究样本,运用现金—现金流敏感性模型,研究持续经营审计意见及分析师跟踪对融资约束的影响。研究发现：持续经营审计意见的出具加剧了上市公司面临的融资约束;分析师跟踪人数越多,上市公司面临的融资约束越小;分析师跟踪能够缓解被出具带强调事项段持续经营无保留审计意见公司的融资约束,加剧被出具其他持续经营审计意见（保留意见、无法表示意见和否定意见）公司的融资约束。     

Costs Associated With Going-Concern-Modified Audit Opinions: An Analysis of the Australian Audit Market

This article examines the potential costs to Australian auditors and their clients from the issuance of first-time going-concern-modified audit opinions. We examine the population of Australian companies receiving a first-time going-concern-modified audit opinion during the period 1994–97 and a matched sample of financially distressed firms receiving a clean audit opinion. Results indicate that auditor switching is positively associated with receipt of a going-concern-modified opinion. However, we find no empirical evidence that there is a self-fulfilling prophecy of increased probability of company failure following the issuance of a going-concern-modified opinion for the Australian companies in our study. Our analyses of lost audit fees indicate that auditors issuing first-time going-concern-modified audit opinions lost proportionately more fees by losing clients (through switching or company failure) than firms not issuing a going-concern-modified opinion to financially stressed clients.     

事务所规模、审计行业专长与事务所审计质量传染效应

发生审计失败事务所的审计质量系统性低于未发生审计失败事务所的审计质量,即会计师事务所的审计质量存在传染效应,但该传染效应受到事务所自选择问题的影响;大规模事务所在审计质量传染效应中占据主导地位;事务所行业专长未能抑制审计质量传染效应。     

Audit report information content and the provision of non-audit services: Evidence from Spanish lending decisions

This study examines whether auditor economic independence affects the information content of going concern audit reports in the European setting. We conduct an experiment where 80 experienced Spanish loan officers from the second largest European commercial bank review a loan request under two lending scenarios: (1) a potential borrower receiving an unqualified but modified going concern opinion, and (2) a potential borrower receiving a qualified going concern opinion. Auditor economic independence, measured by the provision of non-audit services (NAS), is manipulated (absence vs. presence of significant NAS). We find that a qualified going concern audit report is interpreted as a primary warning signal (death penalty). However, the provision of NAS acts as a second order mechanism that only activates loan officers’ professional skepticism in the case of an unqualified but modified going concern report scenario. Therefore, we find evidence suggesting that the potential negative impact of a perceived lack of auditor independence depends on the nature of the audit report. Our findings have important implications for the European regulator, which is currently considering establishing an auditor independence regulation framework similar to that in the United States of America.     

风险投资声誉和股价“传染”效应——来自中国上市公司立案公告的证据

本文以我国2007-2015年证监会立案调查事件为样本,研究当风险投资支持的上市公司涉嫌违规,同一风险投资所支持的其他上市公司(即关联公司)的股价是否会被“传染”。实证结果表明,有风投背景的上市公司在立案公告日有显著的负面市场反应(约-8%),并且这种负面反应会通过共同的风险投资链条“传染”给关联公司(约-1.2%)。我们还发现,风险投资机构的声誉越高,风险投资对涉嫌违规企业参与度越高,则立案调查事件对风险投资的声誉损害越严重,市场对关联上市公司的惩罚也越严重。     

中国房地产市场价格泡沫与空间传染效应

本文使用对数周期性幂律(Log Period Power Law, LPPL)模型对房地产市场价格泡沫进行测度,运用空间计量模型对我国房地产市场价格泡沫和空间传染效应进行研究。LPPL模型认为由价格泡沫产生并最终破裂的金融市场与地震系统具有很多相似之处,即金融资产的价格呈周期性变化规律,价格持续上涨到临界状态直至反转。本文采用2010年6月至2017年11月间我国100个城市的房地产市场数据对各城市房地产价格泡沫进行测度和物理/经济空间传染效应研究。研究发现,LPPL模型能够对我国100个城市房地产价格泡沫进行甄别且主要存在两种泡沫状态:正向泡沫(房价持续上升)和反转泡沫(房价整体下降却存在反转点)。各个城市(地区)房地产价格具有较强的空间传染性;存在正向泡沫区域的空间传染性相较反转泡沫区域更为明显,在考虑经济空间测度而不是物理空间测度的情况下,各城市间的空间传染性更强。与现有文献不同,我们发现反转泡沫区域的新房价格指数特别是二手房价格指数的上升对周边城市的房地产价格指数存在强烈的正向推高影响。最后,本文发现城市的房地产调控政策在一定程度上抑制了房价传统影响(比如信贷、新房、二手房价等)因素的推高影响,但各城市房地产价格之间的联动变化特征应该引起监管部门的注意。     

The response of competitors to announcements of bankruptcy: An empirical examination of contagion and competitive effects

We find, like [Lang, L.H.P., Stulz, R.M., 1992. Contagion and competitive intra-industry effects of bankruptcy announcements: An empirical analysis, Journal of Financial Economics, 32(1), 45–60], that large firm bankruptcies generate a dominant contagion effect. A value-weighted portfolio of competitors' stocks experiences a significant loss of 0.56% in the three days centered around the Chapter 11 announcement. This represents an average loss of $3.32 for all the competitors combined for every dollar lost by the bankrupt firm. In addition, we find that small firm bankruptcies also generate a dominant contagion effect among smaller sized competitors; an equally-weighted portfolio of all competitors has a significant 0.12% drop. In a new approach to separate the contagion and competitive effects, we compare the stock price reactions of competitors who themselves subsequently file for bankruptcy in the next three years (candidates for contagion effect) with those who do not do so (candidates for competitive effect). As expected, candidates for contagion effect experience a significant, negative three-day stock price reaction of −4.68%. However, contrary to expectations, candidates for competitive effect also have a significant, negative return (−0.49%), suggesting that the competitive effect is weak at best since it is dominated by the contagion effect even in this sample. Other procedures to identify candidates for competitive effect generally yield similar findings. Finally, we analyze competitors' stock price reactions based on selected characteristics (e.g., industry concentration, and leverage), with similar results as before. One explanation for the failure to detect a competitive effect is that the impact may already have been incorporated in stock prices prior to the filing for Chapter 11. Consistent with this explanation, we find significant positive stock price reactions by competitor stocks for the hundred days prior to the bankruptcy announcement.     

Business Firms as Adaptive Entities: The Case of the Major Australian Banks 1983–94

The conventional accounting notion of 'going concern', that a firm will continue business operations in the same manner indefinitely, has influenced accounting thought and practice throughout this century. An alternative view, widely upheld in the literatures of economics and organizational behaviour, is that firms are generally innovative and adapt to changes in market and economic conditions. These conflicting ideas are put under inquiry by examining the business policies and practices of the four major Australian banks over the period 1983 to 1994. We conclude on analytical grounds that conventional cost allocation and deferral practices, being based on the static or conventional idea of a 'going concern', are flawed and yield balance sheets that are not indicative of the financial capacity of firms to engage in commerce at any time. We conclude on empirical grounds that the Australian banks, at least, are generally innovative and adaptive enterprises.     

A Web Of Shocks: Crises Across Asian Real Estate Markets

The behaviour of real estate markets during the 1997–98 Financial crisis in Asian economies has received little attention despite the extensive research on other asset markets over this time. This paper examines the transmission of shocks across national real estate markets prior to and during the Asian crisis using a multivariate latent factor framework. The results reveal that diversification opportunities prior to the crisis are much reduced during the crisis. A comparison with regional equity markets shows that the transmission of shocks differs across the real estate and equity markets, providing evidence that investment in multiple asset classes provides some protection from large market downturns.     

An Experimental Investigation of Alternative Going‐Concern Reporting Formats: A Canadian Experience*

This study questions whether the current or proposed Canadian standard of disclosing a going‐concern contingency is viewed as equivalent to the standard adopted in the United States by financial statement users. We examined loan officers' perceptions across three different formats ‐ namely, an integrated note with a clean auditor's report (the current Canadian standard), a stand‐alone note with referencing on the face of the balance sheet and income statement (the proposed and now rescinded standard), and a modified auditor's report with an explanatory paragraph in addition to a stand‐alone going concern note (the standard adopted in the United States and other countries). Bank loan officers were selected as the appropriate financial statement users for this study. The results of the test of the hypothesis suggest that once the going‐concern note is fully disclosed in the notes, the style of presentation within the notes (a stand‐alone note versus an integrated note) does not significantly influence the reactions and perceptions of risk if the auditor's report is unmodified (i.e., if no reference is made to a going‐concern contingency). However, when the auditor's report is modified with an explanatory paragraph detailing the uncertainty and referencing the going‐concern note in the footnotes, the format appeared to convey a stronger signal of financial distress to loan officers. These results appear to differ from prior research, which holds that once the information is released in the financial statements, the format has no additional effect. The finding of this study is that the proposed and withdrawn Canadian standard was not perceived differently by the bankers from the present Canadian standard, but the standard adopted in the United States and most other countries was. This makes a strong argument for moving all the way to that standard as opposed to the “halfway” approach of the now rescinded CICA exposure draft. Thus, the public interest in Canada may not be served by adopting a halfway approach.     

金融科技的社交网络关注:理论模型及其实证分析

本文研究舆情话题在社交网络上的传播机制与社交网络话题选择决策机制,分析关系羊群效应在社交网络中的实现机制,构建金融科技关注指数。实证研究发现:(1)追求收益的投机心理促使社交网络中的舆情主体进行相同的选择决策,在紧密度复杂的网络中更易产生关系羊群效应;(2)中国社交网络对金融科技话题的关注实际是对金融科技公司的关注;(3)金融科技公司的社交网络关注是产生金融科技话题搜索变化的主要原因。     

Concern or apathy: the attitude of the public toward urban air pollution

It is important to understand public attitudes when designing policy instruments to motivate actions. Attitude is partially socially constructed and thus must be studied locally rather than inferred from other settings. This study explored public attitudes toward air pollution among Beijing residents through interviews and thematic analysis. In contrast to previous studies mostly focusing on a certain dimension of attitudes, we attempted to show an initial picture of attitudes in three dimensions, knowledge and belief, perception and concern, and covert and overt behaviors, and identify underlying factors accounting for such attitudes. The results showed that the interviewees largely knew the sources and impacts of air pollution but also demonstrated misunderstandings; half of them perceived air pollution as ‘severe’ and three-fourths of them showed little concern about air pollution; their protective and mitigation responsive behaviors were inadequate. Factors affecting such attitudes, both existing and missing in current literature, were identified. Perceived air pollution is determined by sensory cues and imagination, and mediated by lived experiences and place identity. Lack of concern about air pollution can largely be explained by a feeling of uncontrollability and the crowding effect in competing for attention. This lack is further influenced by the perceived benefits of living in large cities, perceived fairness of the impact across the population, and perceived delay of the health impacts posed by air pollution. Protective behaviors, specifically wearing facemasks, are influenced by perceived severity, vulnerability, efficacy, and barriers. Mitigation behavior, which refers to reducing car use in this case, is discouraged by a lack of feeling responsible and by perceived inconvenience and ineffectiveness. At an academic level, the results of this exploratory study are expected to provide a base for further investigations of factors affecting public attitudes. From a policy perspective, the results should provide information for designing policy instruments to raise awareness and motivate actions to cope with air pollution.     

非标意见与债务融资——基于银行借款和债务期限结构的经验证据

理论上,年报被出具非标意见会降低企业的债务融资能力。但本文发现非标意见对企业新增银行借款和债务期限结构没有显著负面影响,不支持理论预期。我们认为,在中国,银行是一个并非完全以利润最大化为目标的独立市场主体,他们会为了地方社会稳定和经济发展向企业提供贷款;另外,企业有政府的隐性支持,银行不需要太关注企业的偿债风险。因此,虽然非标意见传递出会计信息质量低或未来经营风险高等问题,但它对银行借款的影响相当有限。本文的研究有助于我们理解中国上市公司会计造假盛行、非标意见比例过高的现象。     

Auditor reporting and earnings management: some additional evidence

This paper investigates the reasons that lead to modification of auditors’ opinions. We revisit the conclusions of prior US‐based research on whether a modification highlights likely earnings management activities. Extending this research, we consider an alternate explanation that managers adjust accruals to report earnings that better predict future firm performance, which has the side‐effect of placing them in conflict with their auditors. Our study sample comprises all firms listed on the Australian Stock Exchange over the period 1999–2003. Consistent with prior research, there is no evidence of earnings management leading to an audit opinion modification. However, we do show that firms receiving inherent uncertainty modifications (other than going concern) have greater persistence of earnings (accruals) relative to other firms. This is consistent with the proposition that managers have made policy choices in reporting current earnings, with which their auditors disagree, that will likely result in a greater ability to forecast the firm's future earnings.     

Real Estate Prices and Corporate Investment: Theory and Evidence of Heterogeneous Effects across Firms

In this paper, we investigate the effect of real estate prices on productive investment. We build a theoretical framework of firms' investment with credit rationing and real estate collateral. We show that real estate prices affect firms' borrowing capacities through two channels. An increase in real estate prices raises the value of the firms' pledgeable assets and mitigates the agency problem characterizing the creditor–entrepreneur relationship. It simultaneously cuts the expected profit due to the increase in the cost of inputs. We test our theoretical predictions using a large French database. We do find heterogeneous effects of real estate prices on productive investment depending on the position of the firms in the sectoral distributions of real estate holdings.     

Return Relationships between Listed Banks and Real Estate Firms: Evidence from Seven Asian Economies

This paper studies the return relationships between listed banks and real estate firms in seven Asian economies before and after the Asian financial crisis. We find that listed banks were exposed to real estate risk both before and after the crisis, but that the exposure increased in the post-crisis period. After the crisis, the hidden risk of real estate collateral in the bank lending process was explicit, as was evidenced by the increased sensitivity and the structure break. In terms of causality, the returns of listed real estate firms are found to Granger-cause the returns of listed banks. However, there is mixed evidence as to whether listed bank returns Granger-cause the returns of listed real estate firms. The study is significant because it indicates the importance of lending policies in relation to the real estate market in establishing a healthy financial system.     

货币需求的投机性动机还是预防性储蓄：来自房地产行业的证据

从公司货币需求的视角考察货币政策对房地产市场的影响,为货币政策的有效性提供了微观的研究视角。基于凯恩斯的流动性偏好理论和现金持有的权衡理论分析发现,公司的货币需求与货币供给的关系,随不同的动机而不同。实证的结果发现,房地产公司货币需求更多的体现了投机性动机。因此,针对货币政策对房地产公司影响的复杂性,必须与其它调控措施更加紧密的协调以形成合力,才能对房地产市场实施有效管理。     

Excessive Financial Support,Real Estate Development and Macroeconomic Growth: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT

Using monthly panel data for China’s 30 provinces from 2007 to 2017, this article analyzes how level of financial support affects the interplay between real estate development and macroeconomic growth. Based on a threshold model, the results suggest that housing price increases substantially impede economic growth, but there is no significant threshold effect for the sample as a whole. On investigating regional cross-sectional variations, we found that local economic situation clearly impacts on this effect, with significant threshold effects detected in subsamples. While housing price may have positive influences on economic growth in the mid-west subgroup with appropriate financial support, more developed regions returned contrary results.     

谁更关心关键审计事项:管理层还是分析师

学术界对披露关键审计事项能否提高审计报告的信息含量展开了大量的研究,但主要集中于对股票市场信息传递的探讨,鲜有文献从管理层行为的角度考察披露关键审计事项对资本市场的影响。本文利用新审计报告的过渡期设定,以实施新审计报告准则对分析师预测准确度的影响为切入点,考察了披露关键审计事项究竟是作为增量信息改进分析师预测,还是作为监督压力抑制管理层迎合分析师预测的行为。研究结果支持监督效应,但这种监督效应存在局部性和补充性,即只能对管理层在薪酬激励较低和权力受到制衡的情境下发挥作用;且仅能对管理层在审计质量较低、利润操纵事项难以分辨的情境下发挥补充监督作用。这些结论为监管者和政策制定者完善审计准则提供了些许借鉴。     

多元城镇化、门槛效应与房地产库存：理论解释与实证检验

基于我国房地产和城镇化省际面板数据,构建面板模型和门槛效应模型,考量多元城镇化、门槛效应对房地产库存的影响.结果表明:人口城镇化、空间城镇化和产业城镇化对房地产库存具有显著抑制作用,资本城镇化对房地产库存具有显著促进作用,技术城镇化对房地产库存的影响存在门槛效应.随着技术城镇化跨越人均可支配收入相应门槛值,其对房地产库存的影响由显著到不显著再到非常显著,由促进作用转变为抑制作用,影响系数的绝对值也转变为较大.