南非政府投资项目监管特色与借鉴

南非是非洲经济最发达的国家。据世界银行最新统计,2003年南非GDP为1599亿美元,人均3482美元,其GDP约占全非洲GDP的近20%。近几年南非全社会固定资产投资规模大体保持在660-700亿美元之间。在南非,政府投资项目和项目管理受严格的制度和法律约束。政府投资项     

南非的银行体系及其外汇管制

根据生产力的发展水平来划分,南非属于中等发达的资本主义国家。南非经济快速发展的主要因素是对其得天独厚的自然资源的开发。在其资源开发中,内部投资拨款起着重要的和愈益重要的作用,其中,国家尤其是金融部门在调动财政资源促进经济发展中的作用特别重要。因此,了解南非的金融体系及其外汇管制情况对了解南非的经济发展有着十分重要的意义。     

南非投资机会诱人

21世纪属于新兴经济国家。对亚洲的跨国公司而言，非洲是一个极有潜力的投资目的地。在过去4年里，非洲大陆经济增长率持续超过5％。食品加工、纺织及服务业正吸引着越来越多的来自中国的投资者。南非是非洲市场的桥头堡，在南非的投资将成为打开非洲市场的绝佳机会。     

投资到南非

中国企业家的又一投资机会 南非今天经济的发展,得益于大量的外资投入.在受到国际社会的严厉制裁之前,由于南非丰富的矿藏、完备的基础设施、先进的金融体制、英国式的法律政治制度及与西方世界的历史和文化联系,加上取之不尽的黑人廉价劳动力,使得南非成为西方资本的投资天堂.二战后至20世纪70年代初,外资在南非的收益率一直在20%～27%之间,高出在非洲其他国家收益的3～4倍,比在世界其他地区多50%～80%.20世纪80年代,由于国际制裁,大量外资撤资,南非经济受到沉重打击.     

一月金融

中国人民银行与南非储备银行签署代理投资协议2013年3月26日,中国人民银行行长周小川与南非储备银行行长马库斯在南非德班签署了《中国人民银行代理南非储备银行投资中国银行间债券市场的代理投资协议》。此协议的签署将有利于扩大两国及金砖国家金融合作。外汇局就RQFII境内证券投资试点发布通知为规范人民币合格境外机构投资者境内证券投资试点业务,3月21日,外汇管理局发布了《关于人民币     

国际投资大事

能源南非电力公司投资津巴布韦万吉火电站津巴布韦电力公司(ZESA) 同南非电力公司(ESKOM)签署协议, 南非电力公司将投资3700万美元扩建和改造津巴布韦万吉火电站。阿布扎比投资35亿美元开发三个新油田阿布扎比国家石油公司 (ADNOC)与其下属的几家公司开始实施发展三块新油田的工作,三个新油田是Nasr油田、QuSahwira油田和Bida Al Qemzan油田,总投资为35亿美元。     

金砖国家蓝筹股指组合投资价值考量

国际政治学概念金砖国家与国际经济学概念金砖四国一脉相承。然而,当下国际投资界仍旧认同高盛提出的金砖四国概念。基于均值-方差模型的模拟发现:金砖国家本土投资者均能在投资金砖国家蓝筹股指组合过程中受益;中国内地投资者受益最多;适当卖空部分金砖国家蓝筹股指有益于投资效率的提升;构建杠杆头寸并非中国内地投资者提升投资效率的合适选项。南非成为金砖国家合作机制新成员以来,为投资概念存在的金砖国家注入了新活力。南非股市良好的表现,是拉动金砖国家风险组合预期收益率上升的重要力量。     

非洲之“极”

当前,非洲已成全球经济增长重要一"极".非洲的全球投资回报率最高,甚至要比投资中国、印度、越南等亚洲国家平均高出60％.《经济学家》杂志曾指出,2012年非洲的中产阶级家庭已达6000万个,2015年将达到1亿个.在撒哈拉以南非洲,有三大经济体值得关注:南非、尼日利亚和安哥拉.2012年,南非虽然因为与欧洲的密切联系受到一定连累,但尼日利亚和安哥拉的经济增长率分别达到了6.7％和10％.就整个地区来看,经济发展较为迅速的国家还有十几个,如莫桑比克、赞比亚、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、埃塞俄比亚、苏丹、卢旺达、乌干达、加纳、刚果民主共和国、刚果共和国、加蓬、乍得、赤道几内亚、科特迪瓦、津巴布韦等.还有些国家一直保持着稳定发展,如博茨瓦纳、毛里求斯、摩洛哥等.2012年的《非洲进步报告》称,世界上发展最快的经济体中有7个是非洲国家.     

金砖国家股票市场成长性指标体系构建

巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国以及南非五国作为新兴市场国家经济的领头羊,以“金砖五国”之名而被世界广泛关注.金砖国家这五个新兴经济体,由于投资机会多,成为了投资者的重要投资组合选择.本文参考了上市公司成长性指标,在金砖国家框架下探讨股票市场成长性的指标体系构建问题.通过对股票市场成长性指标的研究,确定以市场工具、融资效率、市场有效性和市场监管为评价要素的股票市场成长性指标体系框架,弥补了比较研究股票市场成长性的理论空白.     

投资机会

夸祖鲁纳塔是南非人口最多的一个省,位于南非东岸,具有全南非首屈一指的投资环境,是南非经济最发达的省份之一.这里雨量充沛、土壤肥沃、气候宜人、农产丰富,工商金融、旅游业都很发达,基础设施完善,铁路、公路、航空四通八达,南非最大的港口德班和另一大港理查湾都在这里,还有全南非最大的电力公司(可提供撒哈拉南部非洲用电量的50%以上),和第二大的水公司,水电极为便利.另外,这里也是南非黑、白人种族关系最好的地区之一.     

Permanent productivity shocks,migration and the labour wedge: business cycles in South Africa

The findings of this study are as follows. First, permanent productivity shocks play a dominant role in South African business cycles. Second, the migration outflow has a negative effect on permanent productivity shocks. Third, a labour wedge that represents labour market inefficiency is significant in South Africa. Fourth, the labour wedge has a positive effect on the migration outflow. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that labour market inefficiency in South Africa pushes workers out of the country and permanently influences the country’s labour effectiveness, thereby driving South African business cycles.     

The Impact of Economic Shocks in the Rest of the World on South Africa: Evidence from a Global VAR

The substantial change in South Africa’s trade patterns over the past two decades has affected the impact of economic shocks in major world economies on South Africa. To investigate the effect, we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model with time-varying trade weights to account for changing international trade linkages. We show that the long-term impact of a shock to Chinese GDP on South African GDP is much stronger in 2009 than in 1995, due to the substantial increase in South Africa’s trade with China since the mid-1990s. At the same time, the importance of the U.S. economy to South Africa diminished considerably. The results indicate one of the possible reasons why the recent global crisis did not affect South Africa as much as it affected developed economies. It also stresses the increased risk, to the South African and other economies, should China experience slower GDP growth.     

Aspects of tax pertaining to insolvency law in South Africa

This paper seeks to briefly analyse the somewhat convoluted provisions contained in South African tax legislation that apply to insolvent entities in South Africa. While South Africa has modern and effective taxation laws, the provisions, when applied to insolvent entities, are often exposed as cumbersome and ineffective. Tax legislation in South Africa does not take proper cognisance of the unique nature of insolvency, often placing a heavy burden on the trustee or liquidator who is required to administer the estate as speedily and effectively as possible. In addition, there are different rules that apply to consumer and corporate insolvency regarding the assessment of income tax pre‐ and post‐liquidation. The recent introduction of a capital gains tax has placed an additional burden on insolvency practitioners, especially considering the lack of clarity as to how these provisions should be applied in practice. Although the Value‐Added Tax Act was introduced more than a decade ago, its provisions continue to pose problems for insolvency practitioners during the administration process of insolvent estates. Despite these difficulties, the South African revenue authorities are to be lauded for the sensible manner in which problems are addressed in practice. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

China-African relations: A new impulse in a changing continental landscape

The paper attempts an evaluation of China's current engagement in Africa and its consequences. This engagement cannot be ignored for a variety of reasons. Firstly, it gives Africa leverage in its relations with the North. Secondly, China's emergence onto the global stage compels African government and their counterparts in the South to reflect on and adopt initiatives that address the challenges of globalization. Thirdly, for African policy-makers, a more nuanced understanding regarding the varied impacts that China can have on their economies and on Africa's development path is needed. For pessimists China represents a terrifying threat while for optimists it is a tantalizing opportunity. The key question is whether China's engagements in Africa are purely extractive or have a developmental impact. The paper looks in some detail at these real and possible impacts.     

Various Aspects to Consider with Regard to Special Insolvency Rules for Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises in South Africa

The notion of special insolvency rules for small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) has attracted attention in international spheres, and within the ambit of some international and comparative approaches, same is considered in this article with particular focus on the South African position. In particular, we show that the South African insolvency regime does not, at present, cater for financially distressed small businesses in a specific and viable manner. In South Africa, although attention has been paid to the development and support of small businesses, similar considerations have not been observed with regard to the insolvency side of small business concerns. No comprehensive and focused process of dealing with financially distressed small businesses exists in the South African insolvency framework. This scenario prevails, notwithstanding that there are existing foreign and international policy guidelines, rules and regimes in developed jurisdictions that can serve as pointers in this regard. The purpose of this article is to first highlight the need for special treatment of small businesses by focusing on the shortcomings in the South African system, and, as a natural sequential development, policy proposals as unavoidable foundations to address these shortcomings. In the premises, the focus is on the principles and policies that are relevant to any discussion regarding insolvent businesses that fall within the scope of the SME category. Therefore, this paper deals with the concept of the small business, the South African insolvency regime and the international position pertaining to small businesses. In particular, the need for special treatment of SMEs under insolvent circumstances is discussed, consideration is given to the existing South African mechanisms available to small businesses in distress and the lack of suitable contextual provisions for small businesses in distress is noted. A core component of this article is the position in South Africa viewed against the backdrop of some international developments, international documents and principles that are relevant to an insolvency and rescue/rehabilitation regime within the context of the small business. As a logical conclusion, recommendations for reform of the South African regime are made. Copyright © 2015 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

OWNERSHIP AND CONTROL IN SOUTH AFRICA UNDER BLACK RULE

An article published in this journal three years ago defended the South African corporate ownership system with its five largest "groups" then exercising effective control over companies representing nearly 80% of the value of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange–as "an efficient outcome of a largely voluntary market process in which owner-managers compete for capital supplied mainly by South African institutional investors." This article extends the earlier analysis by noting that, since the beginning of black majority rule in 1994, the South African group system has adapted by finding ways for black entrepreneurs to participate in the control and ownership of major South African businesses. And such experiments in "black empowerment" have produced a number of notable successes. At the same time, the idea of investing in shares has now become widely accepted in black communities that once viewed the Stock Exchange as a bastion of exclusive white interests.
The larger import of such changes is their apparent success in "legitimizing" the established financial structure for the new South Africa, thereby protecting a fundamentally market-based system from potentially damaging intervention by the State. But if that system is to prosper over the longer run, economic efficiency must remain the primary goal; and, as share ownership spreads among the black community, it must become a more important source of black wealth than the successes of a small group of black entrepreneurs controlling large stakes on the JSE.     

Merger and acquisitions in South African banking: A network DEA model

Banking in South Africa is known for its small number of companies that operate as an oligopoly. This paper presents a strategic fit assessment of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in South African banks. A network DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) approach is adopted to compute the impact of contextual variables on several types of efficiency scores of the resulting virtual merged banks: global (merger), technical (learning), harmony (scope), and scale (size) efficiencies. The impact of contextual variables related to the origin of the bank and its type is tested by means of a set of several robust regressions to handle dependent variables bounded in 0 and 1: Tobit, Simplex, and Beta. The results reveal that bank type and origin impact virtual efficiency levels. However, the findings also show that harmony and scale effects are negligible due to the oligopolistic structure of banking in South Africa.     

A fresh start for individual debtors: the role of South African insolvency and consumer protection legislation

During the last two decades South Africa has witnessed not only a sharp increase in consumer debt but also a strong increase in the granting of credit to individuals. This paper briefly examines the philosophy underlying the contemporary South African insolvency law and also highlights some of the practical problems stemming from its creditor oriented philosophy. In May 2001 INSOL International published a report which is of the view that the solution to over‐indebtedness is to be found, inter alia, in the idea that prevention is better than cure. This paper therefore also investigates the extent to which existing measures of the South African consumer protection law are aimed at the prevention of problematic debt situations. In conclusion we suggest that the existing insolvency and consumer protection legislation is not equal to the task of combating over‐indebtedness and overspending by individuals and that law reform is therefore essential. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A South African Success Story: Excellence in the Corporate Use of Capital and Its Social Benefits

South African companies have made great progress in improving corporate profitability since the nation became a full democracy in 1994. Using the “Cash Flow Return on Investment” (CFROI) method, the authors demonstrate that South African listed companies have been generating world‐beating levels of inflation‐adjusted return on capital over the past decade. But not all parts of the South African economy have benefited from this corporate success. Despite the impressive corporate returns, economic growth remains lackluster, constrained by confused labor and government policies. The authors recommend that South African policy makers aim to minimize uncertainty for the private sector by refraining from interventions with agendas that have little to do with expanding output or employment growth. Using terminology borrowed from Thomas Piketty's recent book, the two authors argue that what South Africa needs is not some way to limit investors' return on capital (r) but rather sound economic approaches to liberate growth (g). The authors would like to see the country's companies continue to generate high “r” while reinvesting their profits to produce more wealth‐creating “g.”     

Can (unusual) weather conditions in New York predict South African stock returns?

This paper investigates the explanatory power of certain weather variables, measured as deviations from their monthly averages, in a leading international financial trading centre, i.e., New York, for South African stock returns, over the daily period January 2nd, 1973 to December, 31, 2015. The empirical results highlight that these unusual deviations of weather variables have a statistically significant negative effect on the stock returns in South Africa, indicating that unusual weather conditions in New York can be used to predict South African stock returns, which otherwise seems to be highly unpredictable. In fact, a forecasting exercise recommends that a trading rule that considers those weather variables through a GARCH modelling approach seems to outperform the random walk model and thus beat the market.