我国经济增长中的需求结构失衡探源——基于存量-流量均衡的分析视角

改变高投资、低消费的经济增长模式已成为转变经济发展方式的核心议题。现有研究多是从收入流量的角度来分析需求结构问题,却忽视了资本存量变动的重要影响。本文运用存量-流量一致的分析方法,构建了一个反映企业成本收益核算的宏观经济分析模型。分析表明存量-流量比例失衡、收入分配差距拉大、需求结构失衡之间存在循环累积机制,结果集中表现为有效需求不足。降低过高的资产值,恢复存量-流量的合适比例是摆脱这一困境的根本办法。     

国库资金流入对国库资金存量管理的影响分析

掌握国库资金流入的规律性可以有效提高政府预算管理及人民银行国库现金管理的效率。研究国库资金流入构成分类及其特点,找出国库资金流入的各个构成与国库资金存量的关系,获取其中的规律性,对建立国库资金存量预测模型有重要意义。     

事业单位固定资产核算体系构建研究

事业单位的资产数额中固定资产比重较高，因此对固定资产的核算显得尤为重要。随着经济环境的变化以及事业单位的改革，事业单位固定资产的会计核算越来越不适应新形势发展的需要。2009年8月，财政部发布了《事业单位财务规则》，对原有的规则进行了改革，重新规范了固定资产的核算，但是仍存在一些不尽合理的地方。因此，本文从固定资产的范围界定、价值损耗、对外投资口径、存量管理、流量管理等方面浅析固定资产核算新体系的构建。     

卡菜斯基增长模型的重新思考

鉴于卡莱斯基增长模型存在把经济增长完全归结为技术因素、只注重经济流量分析、适用范围窄等缺陷，本文将资本存量加入其中，使之成为一个可以反映市场经济关系的增长模型。同时，引入有效需求分析，得出一个重要结论：经济中收入流量对资本存量的变动，是导致有效需求不足问题的主要原因。为此，本文建议，在运用凯恩斯主义政策解决经济问题时，也必须注重对资本存量的调整。     

知识联盟中知识存量振荡系统收敛性研究

运用知识存量理论、知识联盟理论的分析方法,提出知识联盟中知识存量振荡系统收敛性问题。通过模型假设,构建知识存量振荡系统收敛性模型。认为在知识存量和知识流量共同作用下,知识存量振荡系统经历释能、解码、匹配和调适4个阶段,沿着非线性路径呈收敛性状态。     

中国工业分行业资本存量估计

基于永续盘存法对中国工业分行业的资本存量做详细的测算。对永续盘存法下的各项估算指标做详细的数据说明，通过对资本流量数据的构建．对不同年份不同行业的折旧率的构建以及基期资本存量的确定最终得出迄今为止较为全面细致的资本存量值，为相关领域的研究提供较为科学的数据支撑。     

联合国1993年SNA中的流量概念和记录方式

联合国１９９３年ＳＮＡ中的流量概念和记录方式许宪春流量和存量是国民经济核算记录经济信息的两种基本形式。本文介绍国民经济核算最新国际标准,联合国１９９３年ＳＮＡ中的流量概念和某些流量的特殊记录方式。１９９３年ＳＮＡ把流量定义为一定时期内的行为和所发生的...     

经济波动中的收入分配与有效需求——基于1990-2007年中国数据的再检验

从资本存量与收入流量均衡的角度,本文分析了在经济波动的过程中,功能性收入分配比例的变化将会对有效需求结构产生影响,这是构成中国经济波动的内在机制.并通过实证分析,提出政府在调节经济的同时,应特别注意到有效需求问题,保持资本存量与收入流量之间的适当比例关系,并调整收入分配.这对实现国民经济平稳、快速的增长有着重要的意义.     

资金流量分析方法的最新进展

我们延续贝多广、骆峰(2006)的工作,结合最近十年的研究成果,对资金流量分析的发展历程和在经济分析实践中的最新应用进行了概述,侧重点是资金流量分析方法本身的完善,以及如何运用资金流量分析方法研究新的主题和较为复杂的宏观经济问题。我们从作为数据来源的资金流量表、资产负债表经济学和核算体系改进及模型设计三个层面综述了资金流量分析方法最近十年的发展状况,并探讨了其在中国的应用和发展现状、问题和建议。资金流量分析方法在中国的应用有很大潜力,当务之急是完善资金流量表编制这一基础性工作,研究者应改变过去只是简单采用资金流量表数据进行描述性分析的研究方法,致力于开发更多适用于中国的资金流量模型。     

经济增长中的支出:流量和存量

本文通过建立内生模型,全面分析了具有拥挤效应的公共支出流量与存量对经济增长的作用,并分析了经济参数发生变化时均衡增长率的变化和最大增长率问题。     

Empirical Study on Financial Failure Prediction of Listed Companies

Since it is a gradual process for listed companies to plunge into financial failure, it is desirable to discern tho potential risks in advance. This paper, with the adoption of multiple discriminant analyzing approach, tries to find out optimal variables and financial failure predicting model for Chinese listed companies based on audited accounting data.     

商业银行发行理财产品与股价崩盘风险

商业银行在我国金融体系中的地位举足轻重,是金融系统性风险的重要来源。近年来,理财业务的高速成长为商业银行累积了大量的风险,但无论是监管层、业界还是学界,对银行理财产品的关注主要集中在理财产品驱动因素以及其对商业银行业绩的影响上,忽略了商业银行发行理财产品所引发的风险累积及其对资本市场稳定的潜在影响。因此,本文利用2006-2016年中国境内上市银行理财产品的发行数据,从股价崩盘的角度研究其对银行自身股价产生的影响。本文研究表明:银行理财产品的发行会带来自身股价崩盘风险,理财产品发行数量越大,其股价崩盘风险越大;监管压力和理财产品刚性会加剧股价崩盘风险的发生。基于此,本文建议:相关监管机构重点关注监管考核压力较大的商业银行,商业银行要做好投资者的教育工作,淡化预期收益概念,并落实理财产品信息披露制度,更多地发行“开放式净值型”理财产品。     

财务报告信息质量、风险与权益资本成本--来自我国沪深股市的经验证据

本文以我国沪深股市2007—2013年上市公司为研究对象,检验了财务报告质量、公司信息风险与权益资本成本之间的关系。研究结果表明,财务报告质量并不是投资者需要定价的系统风险因素,而是一种非系统性风险。尽管财务报告质量反映了信息风险的不确定性,但这种公司特定的信息风险并没有被投资者定价,它并不会提高公司的权益资本成本。     

Does Financial Sector Development Augment Cross-Border Capital Flows?

ABSTRACT

The sharp increase in volatility of capital flows in recent years has resulted in many countries altering the regulations governing the flow of foreign capital only to find such changes having a limited impact. We postulate that one reason for the limited effectiveness of such changes in regulations is the level of financial sector development in the country. As a country enhances its level of financial sector development, it also develops more and more sophisticated financial instruments. The more advanced the domestic financial instruments are, and the deeper is the integration of the domestic financial markets with the world markets, the greater is the likelihood of developing strategies to bypass capital account management measures. In this paper, we use various empirical techniques to identify the impact of financial sector development on capital flows, after accounting for regulatory regime. The empirical results indicate that there is a threshold effect in the financial sector development capital flow relationship. In particular, financial sector development augments greater integration with global capital flows only above a threshold level. Below the threshold level we find financial development reduces the extent of integration with global capital markets.     

金融危机背景下银行类股票β值及其稳定性的实证检验

在金融研究中,风险和收益、个股与整个股市的波动一直是人们最为关注的问题。特别是在2007年8月美国次贷危机迅速蔓延后,各个公司更加重视股市波动的研究,以求最大限度地规避风险、获得最大收益。在金融研究中,人们通常用期望值表示收益,用方差和标准差来衡量风险。而在两者的关系研究中,资本资产定价模型反映了均衡状态下单个证券的预期回报与其相对市场风险值之间的关系,也描述了证券的风险溢价与市场组合风险溢价之间的关系。选择金融危机迅速传播后的2007年8月到2011年10月21日为研究时间段,选择上海证券交易所A股市场的浦发银行（600000）等14只银行类股票为研究对象,确定它们的值,研究银行类股票与整个股市波动的相关性,说明它们的风险溢价与市场组合风险溢价之间的变动关系。考虑到在所选时间段中,2010年3月开展的融资融券业务可能会对股票值的稳定性有所影响,因此,在求出这些股票的值后,还对这些股票值的稳定性进行了Chow检验。     

Global financial cycle and Brazil’s financial integration

ABSTRACT

Recent studies have discussed the influence of the global financial cycle on capital flows to emerging and developing countries. This paper evaluates the relationship between the greater degree of financial integration, and macroeconomic performance over the last two decades in Brazil. The literature has highlighted the Brazilian experience as being paradigmatic among emerging countries regarding the relationship between financial integration and regulation of capital flows to deal with boom and bust cycles. Methodologically, we employ a vector autoregressive model with error correction that allows us to evaluate the cointegration between the variables. Our main hypothesis is that a greater degree of financial integration is associated with negative developments in variables such as gross domestic product, country risk, interest rates, and exchange rate volatility. In addition, this study presents a further contribution by observing the existence of the interaction between the consequences of financial integration and the global financial cycle. More specifically, we found that: (i) an increase in the degree of financial integration generates deeper effects in downward periods of the global financial cycle; and (ii) a decline in that cycle generates greater impacts when a higher degree of financial integration is present.     

Financial Market Data Versus Accounting Data: Which Better Explains Stock Returns?

This paper presents the comparison of how financial market and accounting data affect stock prices and returns. The goal was to ascertain whether financial information or accounting data dominate in evaluating stock prices. Most valuation techniques used by firms are based on models using either accounting variables (earnings, book value, cash flows, research and development expenses) or financial market data (e.g. beta, market value, interest). The answer is of great importance for valuators and investors as it will help them focus on the most important variables and make better valuations and choices. This answer is also important for accounting standard setters as the preferred method will serve as an indicator for the quality of financial statements and their importance to users. The paper contributes to the existing literature in the fields of value relevance of accounting information and firm valuation and accounting standards (e.g. International Financial Reporting Standards, United States General Accepted Accounting Principles). To answer this question, share prices were estimated based on financial data using the capital asset pricing model and for accounting data, using Ohlson’s model. The results were tested for both methodologies by comparing estimated share prices with actual ones. The greater the correlation between the two variables the better the explanatory power of the model. The focus was on S&P 500 firms for the period 2002–2017.

     

终极控制权与财务风险：来自沪市的经验证据

本文从财务预警指数与金融工程领域广泛使用的VaR两个角度来定义财务风险,研究终极控制权对我国上市公司财务风险的影响。研究发现,终极控制人的现金流量权与控制权的偏离程度越高,上市公司财务风险越高。同时,终极控制人的性质亦会影响上市公司的财务风险。民营上市公司的财务风险最高,地方政府控制的上市公司次之,中央政府控制的上市公司财务风险最低。     

Some comments on the Sraffian Supermultiplier approach to growth and distribution

Abstract

The article discusses the Sraffian Supermultiplier (SSM) approach to growth and distribution. It makes 5 points. First, in the short run, the role of autonomous expenditure can be appreciated within a standard post Keynesian framework (Kaleckian, Kaldorian, Robinsonian, etc.). Second, and related to the first, the SSM model is a model of the long run and has to be evaluated as such. Third, in the long run, one way that capacity adjusts to demand is through an endogenous adjustment of the rate of utilization. Fourth, the SSM model is a peculiar way to reach what Garegnani called the “second Keynesian position.” Although, it respects the letter of the “Keynesian hypothesis,” it makes investment quasi-endogenous and subjects it to the growth of autonomous expenditure. Fifth, in the long run it is unlikely that “autonomous expenditure” is really autonomous. From a stock-flow consistent point of view this implies unrealistic adjustments after periods of changes in stock-flow ratios. Moreover, if we were to take this kind of adjustment at face value, there would be no space for Minskyan financial cycles. This also creates serious problems for the empirical validation of the model.     

Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidence

This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic impact of financialization in the banking sector. We develop a new stock-flow consistent model, which reveals that excessive leverage increases financial fragility, lowers wages, and slows down real sector investment and GDP growth. Using a panel of 29 high income countries, we then construct indicators of banking financialization and investigate the impact of the latter on the wage share, gross capital formation and GDP growth, using a Bayesian structural VAR framework, as well as a set of fixed effect regressions. Our results highlight that financialization has had a detrimental impact on real sector growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results to propose reforms to the international financial system.