Learning,diversification and the nature of risk

In many economic settings, faster learning is achievable only through greater exposure to risk. We study this conflict in the context of project choice, where a risk-averse agent must choose whether to invest in two projects of the same type (focus) or of different types (diversification). Focus enables faster learning across periods, but is riskier due to common type-specific shocks. Optimal choice involves balancing these two considerations. We show that focus is preferred for intermediate learning speeds, and that higher prior uncertainty may encourage focus. Thus, what matters for the focus-diversification choice is not only the level of risk, but also whether the risk is permanent or can be “learned away.” We are grateful to two anonymous referees, Serkan Bahceci, Steve Cecchetti, Adam Jaffe, Bojan Jovanovic, Kala Krishna, Blake LeBaron, Rachel McCulloch, Yana Rodgers, participants at the 2004 AEA-CSWEP Meetings and the 2003 North East Universities Development Conference, and seminar participants at Brandeis University for comments and suggestions.     

Home country bias in international emissions trading: Evidence from the EU ETS

We examine the pattern of allowance trades in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) using highly disaggregated trading data and identify a significant and robust home market bias. Our results point to informational transactions costs that increase when trading across national borders. The existing trade pattern in goods and services explains two thirds of the home bias, with the remainder due to other causes. Our finding suggests that firms make use of existing trade networks to overcome search costs in bilateral allowance trade. Since the home bias differs across firms, it follows that marginal abatement costs are not equalized across market participants of the EU ETS.     

我国企业“投机”多元化发展解疑

我国企业多元化战略呈现了大量了“投机”性战略选择，而这种战略的设计与我国特殊的社会与经济双重转型密切相关，因而，我国企业的多元化战略呈现出以寻求“投机”为倾向、以追逐产业利润暴涨为目标的多元化战略发展。针对于此，我国企业在后转型期的多元化战略发展过程中应该更加结合企业自身素质与核心能力的培育。     

Firm value and the diversification choice: international evidence from global and industrial diversification

Our study examines the nature of industrial and global diversification for a sample of more than 12?000 firms across 35 emerging and developed countries during the period 1991–2006. Consistent with previous studies, we find that industrial diversification, either alone or combined with global diversification, results in a reduction of firm excess value. Global diversification alone, however, does not exert a significant impact on excess value. In an analysis of the decision to diversify, we find that firms in civil law countries or less developed nations are more likely to diversify, suggesting the greater utility of internal capital markets in economies where it is difficult to raise external capital. We observe that high leverage, larger size, lower levels of growth, R&D, free cash flow, profitability and Tobin's q encourage firms to diversify industrially. Higher values of q, firm size, R&D expenditures, free cash flow and liquidity, but reduced growth rates and profitability are associated with global diversification.     

Home bias and deviations from purchasing power parity

Empirical analysis has produced mixed results in testing for PPP. This note presents a simple model linking home bias towards home-produced tradable goods with deviations from absolute PPP. We show that this bias constitutes a significant determinant of PPP deviations.     

Product diversification and bank risk: evidence from South Asian banking institutions

ABSTRACT

We investigate whether the product diversification activities of South Asian banking institutions have led to an increase or decrease in their solvency and profit risks. Using the data of five countries – India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – for the period 2000–2016, we analyse the effect of both income and assets diversification activities on the Z-score and SDs of ROA (Return on Assets) and ROE Return on Equity). Among income diversification activities, securities trading income has a significant positive influence on bank risk while other categories have no influence. With respect to assets diversification, non-interest-bearing assets and loans given to government were found to have a significant positive influence on bank risk, while mortgage loans and non-classified loans have opposite influences. However, the impacts of securities trading income and loans given to the government are mainly confined to private sector banks and state-owned banks, respectively. We also uncover some country-specific diversification influences on the above relationships.     

透视春兰多元化

本文通过深入剖析春兰集团多元化三个台阶的发展状况，归纳了企业多元化应具有的先决条件。希望能够使企业充分认识多元化优缺点，从而使企业能够避免落入盲目多元化的陷阱。     

From sure to strong diversification

This paper presents a characterization of weak risk aversion in terms of preference for sure diversification. Similarly, we show that strong risk aversion can be characterized by weakening preference for diversification,as introduced by Dekel (Econometrica 57:163,1989), in what we call preference for strong diversification. We are grateful to Jean-Yves Jaffray, Peter Wakker and anonymous reference for very helpful suggestions and comments.     

Market efficiency and international diversification: Evidence from India

This study evaluates one of the most important emerging markets, India (Bombay Stock Exchange and Indian National Exchange), for its efficiency and for its potential to offer diversification benefits to international investors. Market-wide tests include; 1) contemporaneous relationship, 2) Granger type causality and 3) day-of-the-week effect. Tests on individual Indian stocks include: 1) panel estimation of Granger causality, 2) stock-by-stock estimation of Granger causality and 3) runs test. In sum, Indian markets are well integrated with the international equity markets, a characteristic that lowers the international diversification benefits. While day-of-the-week effect is an international spillover, it may be possible to predict individual Indian stocks' returns through causality with international equity markets and through momentum trading techniques.     

The electoral college: diversification and the election process

The basic financial principle of diversification is applied to the U.S. Presidential election process. Applying this principle shows that the current Electoral College system may offer significant advantages over a direct voting system. Calls for an abolishment of the Electoral College may be premature if the goal of the election process is to ensure accurate results.      

Volatility states and international diversification of international stock markets

This study uses a Markov-switching technique to identify the volatility state of international stock markets. Further, we consider four possible state combinations of the individual and world stock markets to examine an interesting issue regarding the relationship between international diversification and market volatility. Last, we adopt a framework based on the state-varying correlation to establish a more efficient international investment strategy. Our empirical results are consistent with the two following notions. First, the situation of both the individual and world stock markets during high volatility states will be associated with the minimum benefit of risk-reduction from international diversification and a maximum cross-market correlation. Second, by incorporating the character of state-varying correlation into the establishment of an international portfolio, we can create a more efficient investment strategy with less risk, or greater return for a given risk.     

The effect of product diversification strategies on the performance of health insurance conglomerates

The conglomerate organizational structure of health insurers suggests two distinct methods of product diversification – the first is firm-level diversification, or diversification within individual affiliates, and the second is conglomerate-level diversification, or diversification across affiliates of the conglomerate. We hypothesize that using both firm- and conglomerate-level diversification may magnify the costs or benefits of diversification on the financial performance of the conglomerate. Our results confirm this hypothesis and suggest a positive relation between health insurer financial performance and the use of both product line diversification methods. Our results not only contribute to the body of literature related to corporate diversification but are also important to policymakers and all health insurance market participants as portions of the Affordable Care Act continue to be implemented.     

海外子公司自主权如何影响逆向知识转移——来自中国跨国公司海外子公司的实证研究

海外子公司自主权对跨国公司内部知识转移具有重要影响,但已有研究对此存在明显“悖论”。收集132家中国跨国公司海外子公司数据,对不同类型海外子公司自主权与逆向知识转移间的关系进行实证研究。结果发现：海外子公司自主权中,营销自主权、人事自主权与逆向知识转移之间存在显著倒U型关系;财务自主权和研发自主权能够显著正向影响逆向知识转移;知识复杂性负向调节海外子公司自主权与逆向知识转移之间的倒U型关系。深化海外子公司自主权研究,对跨国公司开展子公司管理与逆向知识转移活动具有重要参考和借鉴价值。     

Intricacies of competition,stability, and diversification: Evidence from dual banking economies

This paper investigates the nexus of competition and stability by introducing the interaction of diversification and competition. We use a sample of both conventional and Islamic banks from 14 dual banking economies over 2005–2016. The core finding illustrates that competition does not impact bank stability and that diversification is insignificant in the competition-stability nexus. Further, we find that concentration is beneficial for the banking stability of both types of banks. In most of our results, we found no difference in the impact of competition and diversification on the stability of conventional and Islamic banks. To put our findings in a broader context, we argue that no difference between the business models can be considered an early signal of possible convergence between the two systems.     

Behavioral Factors Affecting the Home Bias Phenomenon: Experimental Tests

Although international portfolio theory states that an optimal portfolio should be well diversified, in practice, investors tend to invest excessively in domestic assets. This tendency, which is commonly referred to in the finance literature as “home bias” (HB), has puzzled economists for many decades. This research develops and presents experiments designed to test the behavioral factors related to HB discussed in the literature. In particular, these experiments test whether the factors of “familiarity” and “fluency” (ease of pronunciation) affect HB. In addition, using a method of controlled experiments, we examine the willingness to take risk as a basic source of HB. We also examine HB under three different market conditions (normal, bear and bull markets). Results indicate that subjects tended to take less risk with foreign, unfamiliar and nonfluent (difficult to pronounce) assets compared with local, familiar and fluent assets. This tendency increased significantly when the three factors were present together (foreign, unfamiliar and nonfluent assets) compared with when only one of the three factors was present. The results also revealed that HB increased during bear market periods.     

Financial diversification before modern portfolio theory: UK financial advice documents in the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century

Abstract

The paper offers textual evidence from a series of financial advice documents in the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century of how UK investors perceived of and managed risk. In the world's largest financial centre of the time, UK investors were familiar with the concept of correlation and financial advisers’ suggestions were consistent with the recommendations of modern portfolio theory in relation to portfolio selection strategies. From the 1870s, there was an increased awareness of the benefits of financial diversification – primarily putting equal amounts into a number of different securities – with much of the emphasis being on geographical rather than sectoral diversification and some discussion of avoiding highly correlated investments. Investors in the past were not so naïve as mainstream financial discussions suggest today.     

Renewable electricity supply,infrastructure, and gains from international trade in electric current

113 countries report producing electricity from renewable sources and participate in the global energy transition. On the one hand more cables have been built recently; but on the other hand some countries are blocking electricity shocks technologically as supply shocks undermine the insurance function of their markets. This paper shows through a dynamic panel data analysis that the higher share of renewables in electricity production has increased imports and decreased exports of electric currents. This shows that trade currently helps dealing with fluctuations of supply, but temporary losses for recipients of shocks may require payments to keep the borders open. Keywords: Gains from trade, electric current, gravity, infrastructure.     

Probabilistic dominance and status quo bias

Decision makers have a strong tendency to retain the current state of affairs. This well-documented phenomenon is termed status quo bias. We present the probabilistic dominance approach to status quo bias: an alternative is considered acceptable to replace the status quo only if the chances of a (subjectively) severe loss, relative to the status quo, are not too high. Probabilistic dominance is applied and behaviorally characterized in a choice model that allows for a range of status quo biases, general enough to accommodate unanimity, but also standard expected utility maximization. We present a comparative notion of “revealing more bias towards the status quo” and study its implications to the probabilistic dominance model of choice. Lastly, the model is applied to the endowment effect phenomenon and to a problem of international portfolio choice when investors are home biased.     

How large are the gains to commitment policy and optimal delegation for New Zealand?

This paper measures the benefits of commitment-based monetary policy over discretion for a small open economy inflation targeting country—New Zealand. Significant gains accrue from commitment policy. If commitment-based policy is unavailable, the government can recoup much of the gains to commitment through optimal delegation, asking the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to care more about inflation stabilisation. The 1999 PTA, the core of the policy contract between the New Zealand government and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, placed an increased emphasis on stabilisation of output, interest rates and the exchange rate. This is inconsistent with a shift to optimal delegation behaviour and must stem from a changed perception of the welfare costs of macroeconomic stabilization on the part of the Government. This is shown to be true when the definition of inflation is extended to a medium term measure.