Cognitive representations of the future: Survey results

This paper reports the results of a web-based survey concerning how people think about the future. Five hundred and seventy-two people from 24 countries completed the survey. The results indicate that when the respondents hear the word ‘future’, they think about a point in time 15 years into the future, on average, with a median response of 10 years. Respondents think less about the future than the present. On the other hand, they tend to worry more about the future than the present. Respondents’ ability to imagine the future goes ‘dark’ around 15-20 years into the future. Most of the respondents are optimistic about the near term, but become more pessimistic about the longer term. Respondents believe that humankind is not acting very responsibly with respect to a whole host of environmental and social issues but is acting responsibly with respect to technology. Almost half of the respondents would not wish to have been born in the future. Most of the other respondents would have preferred to have been born 50-500 years into the future. Approximately 45% of the sample believes that humankind will become extinct. The data suggest that Christians are more optimistic and less worried about the future and do not believe that we will become extinct. Males worry less but also think more about the future. There is a strong correlation between thinking about the future, clearly imagining the future, and being optimistic about the future. It is concluded that individuals have diverse and rich conceptions about the future but that they think less about the future than futurists might hope. Individuals’ considerations of the future are highly influenced by their identities and worldviews. Future research should focus on better unraveling these relationships and on understanding their implications for futures-oriented policy making.     

Individual approaches to futures thinking and decision making

This paper presents results of a second international web-based survey designed to gather data about how individuals approach thinking about their futures and making decisions regarding their futures. Five hundred and five respondents from 38 countries participated in the survey. Similar to the first survey, the sample has gender, age and religious diversity but is not representative with respect to education, income and race/ethnicity. The results suggest that the external environment provides a great deal of stimuli for people to think about the future (e.g., special occasions like New Years day, birthdays, and funerals). Individuals tend to think about the future more in the morning, and just before bed. Overall, most respondents experience happiness, confidence, and lightness when thinking about the future. Respondents employ many different approaches to thinking about the future, such as relying on personal past experiences, imagining future situations, and relying on their personal intuitions. Most respondents do not pattern their futures decision making on decisions made by others or on tradition. Most respondents believe that their thinking about the future is very worthwhile; most develop plans and take decisive action as a result of their efforts. About three quarters of the respondents report that they are able to predict their personal futures at least one-half of the time. Most respondents face few barriers to thinking about the future, although many reported it would be nice to have more energy, be able to concentrate better, and be able to better organize their thoughts. Females report that thinking about the future is a more emotional experience than it is for males. Males, on the other hand, have more confidence in their futures-oriented decision making abilities. Age plays a big part in how individuals relate to and think about the future. Younger respondents think more about the future more times during the day and find thinking about the future more fearful and anxious. They also pattern their decisions more on those made by others and older individuals. Older respondents tend to rely a great deal upon their lifetime of experiences and worry less about the future. Middle-aged respondents report worrying more about financial and career issues and report that thinking about the future can be emotionally draining.     

Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.     

A comparison of environmental visions of university students in Israel and Palestine

Young people's complex and contradictory understandings of the future are inevitably influenced by their past experiences and the environment in which they currently live. Where this environment is itself particularly complex or contradictory then the understandings young people hold of the future will be affected. This paper, based on foresighting workshops held at three Israeli/Palestinian universities, examines the differing environmental attitudes and understandings of the future that young people hold in Israel and Palestine, before analysing the implications of these for achieving more sustainable development in the region. Despite the very real challenges the region is facing, these foresighting workshops showed that young people think systematically and rationally about the future. They are not filled with pessimism but recognise the challenges they face and can identify realistic solutions to those problems which they see as being of the greatest importance. The foresighting workshops showed that there was some common understanding of the participants about the key future environmental challenges that they face together with possible means for tackling these challenges.     

Heart of the dragon: Metaphor use in futures thinking in Taiwan

This article explores metaphors in the teaching of futures studies in Taiwan. Metaphors are divided into those that describe current reality and those that describe the future. For instance, the metaphor of the gold fish is used by students to illustrate the short attention span of the people, which attributed to recurring societal crises. A transformative metaphor example is for the library—from a fort that passively awaits worships to fire that actively passes knowledge to people. The article concludes with the benefits of using metaphors in futures thinking.     

对居民储蓄高增长的深层思考

近年来我国国内居民储蓄的高增长现象引起了人们的强烈关注。乐观的态度认为10万亿元的居民储蓄表明了人民生活水平的普遍提高，并且将成为中国经济走向繁荣的有力保证；悲观则认为在储蓄高增长的背后其实隐藏着巨大的危机，认为畸形的储蓄高增长恰好暴露出经济结构的失衡。本分析了导致我国国内居民储蓄高增长的深层原因以及由此可能产生的系列问题，并试图寻找解决问题的途径。     

The future revisited: Looking back at The next 25 years by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR)

Looking back at futures studies in the past (past futures) is perhaps the second nature of futures researchers. In this article we look back at a study that was conducted by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy in 1977. We considered it interesting to assess its value 25 years later since many changes have taken place in technology, society, economy, and in the science of futures research as well. From our analysis we have drawn the following conclusions: (1) instead of giving every topic the same time horizon more diverse time horizons should be included because of the different dynamics, (2) more attention for people and opinions outside the mainstream discourse, (3) more attention for thinking in multiple futures instead of predicting just one future outcome, (4) do not only look at the (possible) future of a specific topic, but assess if this topic in its whole will be relevant in the future important (meta-forecast), and (5) more attention for integrating topics for futures studies, but not fulfilling the impossible ambition to link everything to everything.     

On applied science, prediction and contingency

Like any other science, to remain a worthwhile scientific discipline, futures research needs to reflect on itself. It needs to do so from three perspectives: 1) futures research is regarded as an applied science: a closer connection between studying the future in an academic manner and conducting futures research can improve the quality and subsequently the use and impact of futures research, since this will set a cyclic process between theory and practice in motion. An important condition for ensuring this is to increase the amount of empirical research concerning the way futures research is carried out in real life; 2) a reappraisal of predicting the future: although history has shown that predicting the future is difficult, stating that, in the future, predictions will not be a part of futures research is in itself a prediction. In fact, predictions can serve as valuable starting points for discourses on the future; 3) the context of futures research: futures researchers should be more aware of the context in which they do their work. This can significantly enhance the usability of futures research but it also means that futures researchers should become more flexible in applying their methods and processes.     

Distant futures and the environment

This paper develops guidelines for long-term environmental policy and an environmental ethical framework that addresses the distant future. It is assumed that humans have an obligation to maintain Earth-life into the distant future, even past the time when the Earth will become uninhabitable. To achieve the goal of maintaining Earth-life into the distant future requires intelligence. Presently, it can be argued that only humans possibly possess the intelligence required to achieve this goal. It is further assumed that if humans become extinct, the chances are poor that Earth-life with the requisite intelligence to achieve this goal will emerge through evolution. It is also assumed that a catastrophic die-off of species on this planet will lead to the extinction of the human species. Taking these assumptions together, then, it is argued that it is imperative that catastrophic die-off of species must be prevented. Several environmental threats to such an event are described and suggestions to overcome the threats are presented. It is argued that the central premise and associated policies and actions represent a unique environmental ethical framework. To ground the discussions, the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere (SAMAB) region in the Southeastern United States is used for context, background, and transference of general principles to specific environmental policies.     

Bridges over troubled waters: Observations on the futures work of Eleonora Masini

It is really an expedition to study the work of a person you think you somehow know. In this commentary I try to apply my female point of view into the work of Eleonora Masini, one of the most outstanding female futures researchers and a person who has left a deep footprint in the futures research culture of our planet. The material is vast and, for me, the more impressive the unknown continents of the work of this bridge builder seems the more one learns. The areas which I try to cover are first her work as bridge builder among futures researchers as well as between researchers and activists from every continent. Basically this work seems to maintain threads of a global aspect and an ethical touch and creates forums where people can have discussions on an equal basis. This approach has much in common with the principles of the Club of Rome where she was invited as one of the first female members of the club. As a bridge builder for female futures researchers and activists she has gifted a great model through her own activity; she has educated and encouraged lots of women in the field. To give a futures perspective, I discuss a few of those problems she has brought up, but which have not been discussed as much as they deserve. The problems I pose are, first, the division between the culture of care and the culture of control, by now also divided into the female and the male culture. The dominance of the culture of control has caused the problem of useless people. Second is the role of everyday life and households in the world economy. The third is that futures studies has neglected to study the everyday futuring or anticipation of ordinary people. The fourth problem concerns the missing discussion about the future in terms of feminine worldviews.     

Technology and human vulnerability. A conversation with MIT's Sherry Turkle

For most of the last 50 years, technology knew its place. Yes, we all spent a lot of time with it, but even five years ago, few people would seriously claim that technology had taken over their lives. It's very different today. Technology is not only ubiquitous but has become highly intrusive as well. On the Internet, people invent imaginary identities in virtual chat rooms, playing out the lives they wish they really lived. Children are growing up with interactive toy animals that respond to them like real pets. Indeed, some critics claim that technology has not just entered our private lives but started to define them. If we want to be sure we'll like who we've become in 50 years, we need to take a closer look at the psychological effects of current and future technologies. The smartest people in technology have already started. Universities like MIT and Caltech have been pouring millions of dollars into researching what happens when technology and humanity meet. To learn more about this research, HBR senior editor Diane L. Coutu spoke with one of the field's most distinguished scholars: Sherry Turkle, MIT's Abby Rockefeller Mauzé Professor in the Program in Science, Technology, and Society and the author of Life on the Screen, which explores how the internet is changing the way we define ourselves. In a conversation with Coutu, Turkle discusses the psychological dynamics that can develop between people and their high-tech toys, describes ways in which machines might substitute for managers, and explains how technology is redefining what it means to be human. She warns that relatively small differences in technology design can have disproportionate effects on how humans relate to technology, to one another, and to themselves.     

Who trades bitcoin futures and why?

Using regulatory data with identifiers, we analyze the traders active in the Bit- coin futures (BTC) contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). We find two primary trader types, those who hold almost exclusively BTC (con- centrated traders) and those who hold BTC to diversify a broader futures portfolio (diversified traders). The prevalence of these two types changes over time. We also study how BTC markets are connected to other futures markets through common holdings of BTC traders. Finally, we analyze the micro BTC contract and find that the trader composition is different than that of the full-size contract.     

Paths of learning, grieving and transforming

This paper looks at the internal paths people walk as they are engaged in learning about future generations. The deep personal relevance and immediacy of the topic engage students as whole persons in learning processes that transform their perspective on the world and on themselves. Facilitating students as they go through this transformative learning cycle is the task of the teacher. Furthermore, although not widely recognized as such, grief is a part of any learning process as people let go of one thought, perspective or behavior, and try on a different one. When the topic is emotionally loaded with such profound implications as that of the future of our planet, grief becomes even more intense for the learner. Thus educators benefit from an understanding of both learning and grieving processes as they teach courses about future generations. By acknowledging the mourning associated with transforming the learners' world view, educators may assist students to move beyond immobilizing blocks and despair to creative action. This paper explores the normal experiential learning cycle and natural grief processes as they are played out within students while learning about global futures.     

A vision of futures studies

The article looks at futures studies from the point of view of the author who has spent over 30 years in the field, with special reference to the World Futures Studies Federation. It suggests that visions are essential for conducting futures studies and education in futures studies is vital for preparing future oriented new generations. The author points out that around the world women are developing silent alternatives to the present societies geared to conflict and violence; this may lead to non-violent changes of which many are not aware. Futures studies will also benefit from examining futures of cultures as we seem to be developing a new culture of peace.     

Assessing the future of futures studies in management

It can be observed that a growing number of German corporations are using futures studies and its methods in various ways. This evidence suggests that there is a strong ongoing interest in the field of management in futures studies. To assess how the future of futures studies might look like a Delphi study was carried out. The experts in this Delphi study were asked not only to state how futures studies are used in corporations but also what futures studies need to accomplish in order to find more acceptance.The Delphi study suggests that futures studies will become more important in German corporations. In particular, the improvement of methods like environmental scanning, trend research, trend monitoring, strategic early warning and the scenario technique were suggested. While the results of the Delphi study do not suggest that new methods are needed, implementation remains a major concern.     

The founder's dilemma

Why do people start businesses? For the money and the chance to control their own companies, certainly. But new research from Harvard Business School professor Wasserman shows that those goals are largely incompatible. The author's studies indicate that a founder who gives up more equity to attract cofounders, new hires, and investors builds a more valuable company than one who parts with less equity. More often than not, however, those superior returns come from replacing the founder with a professional CEO more experienced with the needs of a growing company. This fundamental tension requires founders to make "rich" versus "king" trade-offs to maximize either their wealth or their control over the company. Founders seeking to remain in control (as John Gabbert of the furniture retailer Room & Board has done) would do well to restrict themselves to businesses where large amounts of capital aren't required and where they already have the skills and contacts they need. They may also want to wait until late in their careers, after they have developed broader management skills, before setting up shop. Entrepreneurs who focus on wealth, such as Jim Triandiflou, who founded Ockham Technologies, can make the leap sooner because they won't mind taking money from investors or depending on executives to manage their ventures. Such founders will often bring in new CEOs themselves and be more likely to work with their boards to develop new, post-succession roles for themselves. Choosing between money and power allows entrepreneurs to come to grips with what success means to them. Founders who want to manage empires will not believe they are successes if they lose control, even if they end up rich. Conversely, founders who understand that their goal is to amass wealth will not view themselves as failures when they step down from the top job.     

Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment

In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.     

What did people predict for the year 2000 and what happened?

Comparing the global situation in the year 2000 with what the respondent samples from 10 countries predicted 30 years earlier, the conclusion can only be that people were remarkably accurate. This does not mean that any single respondent was that accurate but that anybody, who would have liked to anticipate the year 2000, would have done quite well based on these samples. Actually, the peripheries in the samples came out even better than the centers, making us wonder what education and high special position are actually about. One possible set of explanations would be that the peripheries know better where the shoes pinch, are more holistic and are not paid by anybody to make self-fulfilling or self-denying predictions.We are going to look at what people thought and what actually happened, in three movements. The first is about what they thought about the futures of their own societies and the second about international futures. The third movement deals with how their hopes and expectations depended on who they were, more specifically: whether they belonged to the center or the periphery in their countries.     

The coming battle for customer information

Companies collect information about customers to target valuable prospects more effectively, tailor their offerings to individual needs, improve customer satisfaction, and identify opportunities for new products or services. But managers' efforts to capture such information may soon be thwarted. The authors believe that consumers are going to take ownership of information about themselves and start demanding value in exchange for it. As a result, negotiating with customers for information will become costly and complex. How will that happen? Consumers are realizing that they get very little in exchange for the information they divulge so freely through their commercial transactions and survey responses. Now new technologies such as smart cards, World Wide Web browsers, and personal financial management software are allowing consumers to view comprehensive profiles of their commercial activities-- and to choose whether or not to release that information to companies. Their decision will hinge, in large part, on what vendors offer them in return for the data. Consumers will be unlikely to bargain with vendors on their own, however. The authors anticipate that companies they call infomediaries will broker information to businesses on consumers' behalf. In essence, infomediaries will be the catalyst for people to start demanding value in exchange for information about themselves. And most other companies will need to rethink how they obtain information and what they do with it if they want to find new customers and serve them better.     

The future of bioregional planning in the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere region

This paper assesses the current status and future prospects for bioregional planning in the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere (SAMAB) region in the United States. The SAMAB region is one of the most biodiverse temperate regions in the world. The region's environment is threatened by development, air and water pollution, and invasive species. Numerous institutions in the region have some responsibility for protecting the region's environment, including the National Park Service, the US Forest Service, the US Environmental Protection Agency, the US Fish and Wildlife Service, several states, hundreds of municipalities, and numerous active non-profit organizations. Twenty-seven people associated with bioregional planning were interviewed to gauge their opinions on the state of bioregional planning in the SAMAB region. Overall, the respondents do not believe that the totality of all those efforts comprises bioregional planning because the efforts are limited in scale and scope and somewhat uncoordinated. With respect to the future of the region, the respondents found it difficult to imagine the state of the region 50 and especially 200 years into the future. Additionally, almost all of their definitions of bioregional planning included a spatial dimension but none included a time dimension. Thus, one of our conclusions is that the future of bioregional planning in the region will be hampered by difficulties people responsible for environmental protection have in dealing with ‘the future’. Much effort needs to be expended to inculcate people in the region with the desire to anticipate problems long before they occur. Reactive responses, which characterize the majority of current efforts, are likely to be ‘too little, too late’.