Extending foresight: The case for and nature of Foresight 2.0

This a programmatic paper with all of the frustrations thereof [1]. We point beyond the well-tilled ground of foresight as commonly practiced (called Foresight 1.0) to an emerging understanding of the work and character of foresight (called Foresight 2.0). By definition, as of today, this new territory is not well mapped, much less carefully worked-over. The question that drives this commitment to Foresight 2.0 was the heart of the 2007 Strathclyde Organizational Foresight Conference—Learning the Future Faster: “Can foresight as commonly practiced enable us to learn the future fast enough to meet and deal with the unique strategic challenges of the 21st Century?” The view taken is that Foresight 1.0 cannot meet this challenge; that it leads to small victories and major disasters. An explanation is offered: Foresight 1.0 was developed, and is still largely practiced, with the eyes and mind of management, whereas sustained success in the unique conditions of the 21st Century requires Foresight 2.0—seeing, thinking and acting with the eyes and mind of Leadership. This distinction is explained. Evidence is offered that futures research and foresight are slowly moving towards this new practice. The hope is expressed that, if we grasp the need for it, the nature of it and have explicit mental maps of the journey to it, we who are professional foresight researchers and practitioners will move faster and more effectively to develop Foresight 2.0. Several steps towards this end are outlined.     

Tailoring Foresight to field specificities

The paper presents an approach at improving the impact of Foresight by systematically taking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&I) domains when designing a Foresight exercise. The paper addresses recent developments in Foresight theory and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives. The paper can be characterised as empirically based theory building. The theoretical framework is elaborated by applying it in two R&I fields: (i) GM plants and (ii) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. Hence, this research is expected to contribute improving the strategic processes of priority setting in techno-institutional arenas both on the national and international level. In particular it is suggested that the capability of Foresight to function as a systemic innovation policy instrument for enhancing innovation and learning capability could be improved substantially by tailoring the Foresight approach to the targeted innovation arena.     

Priorities for future innovation: Russian S&T Foresight 2030

Under the transition to a market economy Russian science, technology and innovation (STI) has changed dramatically. After the crisis of late 1990s, the government declared science and technology (S&T) as one of national priorities and started increasingly investing in this sector but it has not led to the tangible output like a bigger volume of high-tech exports or a higher share of international publications. A number of policy instruments have been introduced to increase the efficiency of STI policies. One of them is S&T Foresight.The activities aimed at identification of national S&T priorities and series of Foresight studies have helped to understand which areas are most promising for sustaining existing competitive advantages and building new ones via gradual shift from the resource-based economy towards the technology-oriented one.The paper presents the design and organisation of a large-scale Russian S&T Foresight exercise as a fully-fledged instrument of the national STI policy and discusses the achieved results and their use for policies at different levels.     

Creating the experience of social change

This paper discusses how the social change theory of P.R. Sarkar is introduced to students of the Australian Foresight Institute's Masters in Strategic Foresight program through an action learning process. Through action learning, the student can come to appreciate the qualitative difference in understanding that can be obtained through taking an ‘integral’ or meta-perspective on social change processes. Such a perspective increases the efficacy and scope of all social interventions.     

Comments by the European Accounting Association on the International Accounting Education Standards Board Consultation Paper ‘Meeting Future Expectations of Professional Competence: A Consultation on the IAESB’s Future Strategy and Priorities’

On December 2015, the International Accounting Education Standards Board (IAESB) issued a consultation paper entitled ‘Meeting future expectations of professional competence: A consultation on the IAESB’s future strategy and priorities’. Its aim is ‘to obtain public comment on its vision for the next five years and the strategic priorities it believes need to be addressed in serving the public interest’ [International Accounting Education Standards Board [IAESB]. (2015a). Meeting future expectations of professional competence: A consultation on the IAESB’s future strategy and priorities. Consultation paper. Retrieved from https://www.ifac.org/publications-resources/consultation-paper-meeting-future-expectations-professional-competence, p. 3]. This article reports the answers of the European Accounting Association to the questions asked in the consultation paper. The comments suggest a reinforcement of the entry requirements that would include a proper education background, advanced levels of both some technical competences and interpersonal/communication skills as well as a very strong ethical commitment. They also recommend a more thorough development process for the continuous education of accountants, a stronger link between practitioners and academia, insights for new IESs and more effective communication strategies about IAESB activities.     

Municipal visions: Reflexive futures between paradigm and practice

How does the reflexive knowledge we develop about institutions and environments influence the expectations we might have about the future? The paper addresses this question in the context of Foresight in local governance. It describes a project aiming at creating visions for a Norwegian municipality by inviting schoolchildren to contribute with their ideas of the future. The focus is on how the interactions between project owners and participants produced certain forms of resistance and led to visions best described as idealistic conformism. Introducing the idea of ‘reflexive futures’, I suggest that that a broader understanding of reflexivity as containing both enabling and constraining features can help to unlock certain paradoxes of current Foresight and provide a renewed inquiry into the practise of visioning for strategy and long-term planning.     

Hedging Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts

Abstract

This paper examines a portfolio of equity-linked life insurance contracts and determines risk-minimizing hedging strategies within a discrete-time setup. As a principal example, I consider the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model and an equity-linked pure endowment contract under which the policyholder receives max(S_T , K) at time T if he or she is then alive, where S_T is the value of a stock index at the term T of the contract and K is a guarantee stipulated by the contract. In contrast to most of the existing literature, I view the contracts as contingent claims in an incomplete model and discuss the problem of choosing an optimality criterion for hedging strategies. The subsequent analysis leads to a comparison of the risk (measured by the variance of the insurer’s loss) inherent in equity-linked contracts in the two situations where the insurer applies the risk-minimizing strategy and the insurer does not hedge. The paper includes numerical results that can be used to quantify the effect of hedging and describe how this effect varies with the size of the insurance portfolio and assumptions concerning the mortality.     

企业核心竞争力内涵的再诠释

企业核心竞争力是近年来影响最大也是最重要的一个企业战略管理概念。理论界对它的内涵进行了研究,但并未达成一致意见。本在对相关理论观点进行梳理的基础上,对企业核心竞争力的基本内涵做了进一步的阐释。本认为,企业核心竞争力不是物质实体而是功用属性,不是“核力”而是“合力”,不是静态力而是生长力。     

Making strategy: learning by doing

Companies find it difficult to change strategy for many reasons, but one stands out: strategic thinking is not a core managerial competence at most companies. Executives hone their capabilities by tackling problems over and over again. Changing strategy, however, is not usually a task that they face repeatedly. Once companies have found a strategy that works, they want to use it, not change it. Consequently, most managers do not develop a competence in strategic thinking. This Manager's Tool Kit presents a three-stage method executives can use to conceive and implement a creative and coherent strategy themselves. The first stage is to identify and map the driving forces that the company needs to address. The process of mapping provides strategy-making teams with visual representations of team members' assumptions, those pictures, in turn, enable managers to achieve consensus in determining the driving forces. Once a senior management team has formulated a new strategy, it must align the strategy with the company's resource-allocation process to make implementation possible. Senior management teams can translate their strategy into action by using aggregate project planning. And management teams that link strategy and innovation through that planning process will develop a competence in implementing strategic change. The author guides the reader through the three stages of strategy making by examining the case of a manufacturing company that was losing ground to competitors. After mapping the driving forces, the company's senior managers were able to devise a new strategy that allowed the business to maintain a competitive advantage in its industry.     

Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight

We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing.     

Foresight defined as a component of Strategic Management

This paper explores basic theoretical affinities between Foresight and Futures and Strategic Management, arguing that at this point in its development, Foresight can best be understood and deployed as an explicitly managerial discipline.The growth of Foresight and Futures Studies as a discipline has been less robust than the internal logic of the field would predict, potentially indicating an opportunity for theoretical renewal. Foresight is often justified on managerial grounds, with the argument that a discipline is needed to guide decision-making in a technologically aggressive, post-industrial society. Some within Foresight and Futures Studies have argued for the active development of alternatives to these managerial justifications. However, the links between Strategic Management and Futures Studies are robust and the embrace of cross-disciplinary dialogue has proven invigorating in some other disciplines. An evaluation of the goals and logic of Foresight from the standpoint of mainstream Strategic Management gives a novel perspective on the field, highlighting its importance to information processing. Finally, Foresight speaks to well-established normative problems with short-term biases in managerial contexts. For the purposes of this article, the terms “Foresight” and “Futures Studies” are used interchangeably to refer to the general study of futures.     

Rationalising the future? Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination

Commentators from diverse fields and backgrounds have argued the present innovation environment is one constituted by unprecedented levels of uncertainty. National Foresight programmes recently have emerged as a means of co-ordinating science and technology policies and responding to a condition of uncertainty and change. Perhaps the most systematic Foresight programme is that of the United Kingdom. This article discusses the response the UK Foresight programme offers to the present and future innovation environments. In doing so, it is argued we should examine how the ‘need' for the programme is constructed and how that need is defined and shaped in relation to past UK science and technology policies. It is suggested that Foresight presents an ambivalent response to many of the concerns it proposes to address.     

Small seeds for grand challenges—Exploring disregarded seeds of change in a foresight process for RTI policy

The recent turn in research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy towards challenge-led strategies is posing new demands to Foresight methodology. RTI Foresight practitioners need to complement their well developed set of technology oriented methods with equally sophisticated approaches tackling societal aspects of innovation. In this paper we aim to make a contribution to this requirement. Building on user innovation theory we argue that demand oriented RTI Foresight needs to systematically integrate voices and hypotheses from the fringes of the innovation system. In order to develop a sound approach for this we set out from well established Foresight theory on “weak signals” and “cognitive biases”. Adopting a constructivist stance towards such signals leads us to the need to set up a socially robust, diverse discourse on “seeds of change hypotheses”. We then outline a practical implementation of such a discourse in the context of the recent Foresight process of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany. We describe and discuss the experience of this Foresight process and suggest avenues for further development of the approach.     

企业竞争战略之研究——核心竞争力评价及应用

自美国学者普拉哈拉德与哈默尔提出企业核心竞争力的概念以来,日益引起了理论界与企业界的广泛关注。本文首次系统地对企业核心竞争力的起源、现状、流派、理论发展和本质进行了分析,并且从市场表现、技术实力或服务水平以及内部管理等三个层面详细分析了企业核心竞争力的内涵,同时提出了一种评价企业核心竞争力的方法和指标体系。然后依据该评价指标体系的指标特性,选择神经网络作为评价方法。最后根据企业核心竞争力的评价结果进行了初步策略应用探讨,具有切实可行的实际操作和指导意义。     

论企业核心能力信息的自愿披露

核心能力信息是区别于其他企业,反映企业持续竞争优势源泉的信息,是企业信息披露战略的重要内容。由于核心能力信息已经超越了传统财务信息的范畴,具有“非规范性”的总体特征,通过自愿性披露揭示企业核心能力信息成为允当选择。本文在分析核心能力信息自愿披露动因的基础上,从资产角度探讨了核心能力的确认方法,并对核心能力自愿披露的实现方式进行了研究,认为核心能力信息的自愿披露应该遵循循序渐进的原则,以非财务报告披露为起点,逐步过渡到管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)披露,最终实现核心能力报告的披露目标。     

Delivering the goods at TNT: the role of the performance measurement system

This paper explores the characteristics of the performance measurement system atTNT (UK) Ltd.which facilitate the translation of strategy into action.TNTis a successful and growing service organization and a market leader in the overnight distribution of parcels within the U.K. The performance measurement system and how it is used atTNTare described in detail. The authors then draw on the management accounting literature to provide an analysis framework which answers three central questions for performance measurement systems: whatdimensionsof performance to measure, how to setstandardsfor those measures and whatrewardsare to be associated with the achievement of those standards. The performance measurement system atTNTis appraised against this framework. AtTNTthere are five properties of the performance measurement system which have facilitated the translating of strategy into action. Three of these relate to the framework above; the company measures the right things in that dimensions are consistent with corporate strategy, it provides standards for performance through internal benchmarking, and adopts a mixture of financial and non-financial based rewards. In addition, however, there are two further properties of the system; the use of league tables to report the relative performance of the depots, and the presence of a strong corporate champion who drives the message and importance of the performance measurement system from the centre to the depots.     

Feature Article: A Resource‐Based Perspective on Business Strategies of Newly Founded Subsidiaries: The Case of German Pensionsfonds

Diversification by firms into unfamiliar areas of business is achieved either by acquisition of an existing business in the destination industry or a greenfield start‐up. This article focuses on the business strategy of greenfield start‐ups. We theorize and find that firms entering a market by establishing a new subsidiary rely solely on their own preexisting internal resources, making it favorable to align the business strategy of the start‐up with the firm's value‐generating competencies. Our empirical results, which are based on a sample of German Pensionsfonds and their parent companies, are consistent with the view that the business strategy choice of a newly founded subsidiary is substantially directed by the internal resources and competencies of the parent firm.     

Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight

Foresight processes and activities are confronted with the task of making sense of the present, in particular by interpreting weak signals of change in the organizational environment. Although trends are considered to be important drivers of environmental discontinuities which may lead to strategic surprises, there is no operationalization from a strategic point of view. In this paper we are going to conceptualize trends as (socio-cultural) innovations. This leads to important implications. If the nature of innovation is taken seriously, then strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects, invention and diffusion. First, we are going to present a framework for identifying the invention aspect of a trend (i.e., “the new”) which is based on the fact that “the new” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries. Second, we are going to operationalize the diffusion of “the new” as a threefold process of normalization - i.e., an unusual practice becomes social convention. Taken together, these two aspects provide a theoretical link between trends and market creation. In addition, by relating the above operationalizations to an entrepreneurial strategy-making framework, strategic issue diagnosis can be improved and more seamlessly linked to strategy formulation.     

On the equivalence of the static and dynamic asset allocation problems

A classic dynamic asset allocation problem optimizes the expected final-time utility of wealth, for an individual who can invest in a risky stock and a risk-free bond, trading continuously in time. Recently, several authors considered the corresponding static asset allocation problem in which the individual cannot trade but can invest in options as well as the underlying. The optimal static strategy can never do better than the optimal dynamic one. Surprisingly, however, for some market models the two approaches are equivalent. When this happens the static strategy is clearly preferable, since it avoids any impact of market frictions. This paper examines the question: when, exactly, are the static and dynamic approaches equivalent? We give an easily tested necessary and sufficient condition, and many non-trivial examples. Our analysis assumes that the stock follows a scalar diffusion process, and uses the completeness of the resulting market model. A simple special case is when the drift and volatility depend only on time; then the two approaches are equivalent precisely if (μ (t)? r)/σ²(t) is constant. This is not the Sharpe ratio or the market price of risk, but rather a nondimensional ratio of excess return to squared volatility that arises naturally in portfolio optimization problems.     

Non-exponential bounds for stop-loss premiums and ruin probabilities

We present an inventory of non-exponential bounds for ruin probabilities and stop-loss premiums in the general Sparre-Andersen model (renewal model) of risk theory. Various additional bounds are given if one assumes that the ladder height distribution F associated with the risk process belongs to a certain class of distributions, in particular if it is concave or it exhibits a (positive or negative) aging property. In most cases, these bounds are shown to improve existing ones in the literature and/or possess the correct asymptotic behaviour when the distribution F is subexponential. Since in the classical (compound Poisson) risk model the ladder height distribution is always concave, all the bounds given in the paper are also valid for this model. Finally, in many cases the results of the paper are also valid for any compound geometric distribution.