Foresight defined as a component of Strategic Management

This paper explores basic theoretical affinities between Foresight and Futures and Strategic Management, arguing that at this point in its development, Foresight can best be understood and deployed as an explicitly managerial discipline.The growth of Foresight and Futures Studies as a discipline has been less robust than the internal logic of the field would predict, potentially indicating an opportunity for theoretical renewal. Foresight is often justified on managerial grounds, with the argument that a discipline is needed to guide decision-making in a technologically aggressive, post-industrial society. Some within Foresight and Futures Studies have argued for the active development of alternatives to these managerial justifications. However, the links between Strategic Management and Futures Studies are robust and the embrace of cross-disciplinary dialogue has proven invigorating in some other disciplines. An evaluation of the goals and logic of Foresight from the standpoint of mainstream Strategic Management gives a novel perspective on the field, highlighting its importance to information processing. Finally, Foresight speaks to well-established normative problems with short-term biases in managerial contexts. For the purposes of this article, the terms “Foresight” and “Futures Studies” are used interchangeably to refer to the general study of futures.     

金融创新与银行核心竞争力

金融创新指金融内部通过各种要素的重新组合和创造性变革所创造或引进的新事物，主要包括：产权制度创新、经营体制创新、组织体系创新、市场结构创新、监管创新、技术创新、工具创新、产品创新、服务创新和队伍创新。金融创新起源于20世纪50年代末，至20世纪80年代达到高潮，其理论体系源于创新理论的倡导者熊彼特(J．A．Schumpeter)。     

实施精细化战略打造核心竞争力

中国长城资产管理公司（以下简称长城资产管理公司）是拥有商业化不良金融资产最多的资产管理公司之一,社会上曾对其收购的不良资产能否实现整体盈利存在质疑,经营处置面临巨大压力和挑战。五年过去了,长城资产管理公司是如何应对这一严峻的挑战？带着这个疑问,《国际融资》记者走进长城资产管理公司,采访了该公司重点项目部总经理赵家国和资产经营部副总经理雷鸿章.     

论企业核心能力信息的自愿披露

核心能力信息是区别于其他企业,反映企业持续竞争优势源泉的信息,是企业信息披露战略的重要内容。由于核心能力信息已经超越了传统财务信息的范畴,具有“非规范性”的总体特征,通过自愿性披露揭示企业核心能力信息成为允当选择。本文在分析核心能力信息自愿披露动因的基础上,从资产角度探讨了核心能力的确认方法,并对核心能力自愿披露的实现方式进行了研究,认为核心能力信息的自愿披露应该遵循循序渐进的原则,以非财务报告披露为起点,逐步过渡到管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)披露,最终实现核心能力报告的披露目标。     

透析商业银行的金融创新与核心竞争力

商业银行的成长史就是一部不断创新的历史，金融创新是促进商业银行成长的重要的原动力和持续推动力，正是通过不断的金融创新，商业银行才实现了一次又一次的飞跃。本文从核心竞争力的理论界定出发．论证了商业银行的核心竞争力集中体现为金融创新能力，一家银行只有不断增强金融创新能力．才可能在激烈的市场竞争中持续获得差异化的竞争优势。在此基础上，文章阐述了金融创新与商业银行成长的关系．从加快制度创新、健全创新机制、完善创新手段、培育创新文化等几个方面对我国商业银行提升金融创新能力提了策略性建议。本刊分两期刊载全文．以飨读者。     

建立和完善集约化体系提升分行科技的核心竞争力

为了适应国有商业银行集约化、专业化发展和股份制改造的要求,近年来中国工商银行总行提出并推行了科技整合创新规划,实现了大机数据集中工程。全行科技的生产运行、应用开发和管理体系也相应发生了很大的变化。全行统一的核心的应用开发职能上收到总行建立了一流的软件研发基地,使之成为全行质量、标准和设计中心,主导全行科技发展的方向。软件开发中心融合了数据中心和各分行的软件开发力量,成功推出了以综合业务系统、资产管理系统、数据仓库应用系统为主体的各类应用。总行实施全行科技统一管理、统一规划和统一生产运行的力度明显加大,…     

银行家的远见

(一) 一个人一生中会有很多梦想,留到最后的梦想也许是最难实现的.奥地利中央合作银行副行长HerbertStepic先生说:他一辈子的梦想就是把中东欧的业务和亚洲的业务连在一起.我不知道这该不该算是他最后的梦想?但他确实实现了.在很多年前,他像布棋子似的一步一步地把奥地利中央合作银行的分行建在中东、东欧及独联体国家,而后,就在东南亚金融危机爆发之际,众多资本市场高手纷纷撤资,曾想入围的机构亦驻足观望,但HerbertStepic先生却做出了别人曾经想过,此时决不敢想的具有挑战性的战略选择:把奥地利中央合作银行的下一个分行建在中国.     

以核心技术打造中国品牌的国际竞争力--专访广电运通金融电子股份有限公司董事长赵友永

截至2005年底，中国内地的ATM布放量将超过7万台，其中洋品牌产品约占80％。与之相对应，ATM重要部件的核心技术也基本上被屈指可数的几家国外厂商垄断。近几年，一些国内企业在核心技术领域加大投入、潜心研究、辛勤耕耘，已经成为一股不可忽视的新生力量，正引领国内ATM产业走向突破。和电脑、手机等产业一样，ATM产业也不乏中国品牌和洋品牌精彩博弈的故事。日前，本刊记者赴广州参观了国内最大的ATM生产厂商——广电运通金融电子股份有限公司，并对董事长赵友永进行了专访。     

远虑以备险 合规自稳健——中国工商银行票据营业部实现票据业务8年“零风险”

自2000年成立以来,中国工商银行票据营业部在保持业绩持续增长的同时,不断加强风险管理和内控建设,通过构建垂直管理的风险防范体系,定期开展内控检查、借助现代信息技术监测业务风险,培育诚信合规文化等一系列举措,实现了票据业务8年零风险。“零风险”的背后是哪些关键因素在起作用。票据营业部未来又将怎样进一步推进风险管理？带着这些问题,本刊记者走访了票据营业部,并对应俊惠总经理进行了采访。     

透析商业银行的金融创新与核心竞争力(续)

三、提升我国商业银行金融创新能力的紧迫性分析 在经济金融体制转轨的宏观背景下，我国商业银行的金融创新经历了一个从无到有，从简单到综合化的过程，从产品创新、服务创新到管理创新、技术创新、体制创新和文化创新的不断跃升的过程。伴随这个进程的不断深入，我国商业银行的经营能力、竞争能力迅速提升，进而为商业银行的持续成长提供了强大的动力。     

Tailoring Foresight to field specificities

The paper presents an approach at improving the impact of Foresight by systematically taking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&I) domains when designing a Foresight exercise. The paper addresses recent developments in Foresight theory and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives. The paper can be characterised as empirically based theory building. The theoretical framework is elaborated by applying it in two R&I fields: (i) GM plants and (ii) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. Hence, this research is expected to contribute improving the strategic processes of priority setting in techno-institutional arenas both on the national and international level. In particular it is suggested that the capability of Foresight to function as a systemic innovation policy instrument for enhancing innovation and learning capability could be improved substantially by tailoring the Foresight approach to the targeted innovation arena.     

美国光速投资基金的眼光

美国光速投资基金（以下简称光速）是一家拥有20多年历史的风险投资基金,总部设在美国加州硅谷,在美国、中国、印度和以色列设有办公室,目前光速管理着20亿美金的基金,新近融资的基金盘是8亿美金。自2005年第四季度光速进入中国市场以来,已在中国市场投资了近10家企业。光速是怎样看中国市场的？光速的投资方式是怎样的？为此,《国际融资））杂志记者采访了光速中国的投资董事郑毅     

Foresight in the Brussels Capital Region

This paper presents results from the Iris Futures research project. The research was aimed at exploring the potential role of foresight in the development of the Brussels Capital Region and the identification of tools, capabilities and conditions for an improved application of foresight in Brussels. An overview was created of the characteristics of 60 future oriented activities and 120 organisations involved in such activities At the outset questions on organisational or institutional fragmentation and collaboration were not intended to be in the foreground of the research but over the course of the research this issue was observed to have a significant adverse impact on foresight capacity in Brussels. The case of the Brussels Capital Region demonstrates that institutional and organisational fragmentation need to be overcome for a futures oriented practice to have opportunity. De-fragmentation, bottom-up and institutionally, is both a condition for and an effect of the futures oriented practice underlying the foresight capacity of organisations.     

Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level

The objective of this paper is to carry out a foresight analysis of the agricultural sector in Castilla y León (Spain) for 2020. The methodology used to build the various scenarios is prospective analysis. We first performed a structural analysis in order to identify the key driving forces that characterize the evolution of the sector in this region (agricultural production, demand for agricultural products and institutional framework). We then carried out a morphological analysis that generated a range of “partial scenarios” from which we finally built four “global scenarios”. These last scenarios characterize the possible trends in the variables of change previously identified. Lastly, the common key parameters of each global scenario were quantified by means of the Delphi method. The characterization of scenarios has a double practical interest. First of all, they can explain the cause-effect relationships of the processes of change that affect agriculture in this region of Spain. Secondly, they are a powerful tool to stimulate an in-depth reflection of how the design and implementation of current agricultural policies will affect the already fragile agricultural sector of Castilla y León. This study thus aims to support decision-making processes at regional level.     

效益性原则是企业材料采购工作的核心

工程项目建设的特点是：材料物资消耗量大、工期长．产品固定。一般情况下，材料费用占整个工程造价的65％～70％，对于施工企业，材料费用成本的盈亏在总成本中起决定性作用，所以，施工企业的材料采购是一项重要工作，而材料采购工作直接决定材料采购成本的高低，可见，加强材料采购的管理是极为重要的。[编者按]     

Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making

Foresight activities are often conducted to anticipate major societal future challenges and provide support to current decision-making. Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society, it mainly provides evidence on how foresight impacts on policy-making and societal developments. The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects. The framework is applied for the empirically based ex post analysis of selected foresight projects around the world in order to clarify (i) different roles for foresight in the innovation system and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy.     

Priorities for future innovation: Russian S&T Foresight 2030

Under the transition to a market economy Russian science, technology and innovation (STI) has changed dramatically. After the crisis of late 1990s, the government declared science and technology (S&T) as one of national priorities and started increasingly investing in this sector but it has not led to the tangible output like a bigger volume of high-tech exports or a higher share of international publications. A number of policy instruments have been introduced to increase the efficiency of STI policies. One of them is S&T Foresight.The activities aimed at identification of national S&T priorities and series of Foresight studies have helped to understand which areas are most promising for sustaining existing competitive advantages and building new ones via gradual shift from the resource-based economy towards the technology-oriented one.The paper presents the design and organisation of a large-scale Russian S&T Foresight exercise as a fully-fledged instrument of the national STI policy and discusses the achieved results and their use for policies at different levels.     

Foresight for debate: Reflections on an experience in conceptual design

Among the various reasons to engage in foresight activities, one encountered often is to stimulate dialogue on imminent issues and inspire innovations aimed at the challenges they bring along. The authors' studio, Pantopicon, was asked to carry out a (near future) foresight desk study investigating the changing role between people and their home/office interiors. Furthermore they were asked to render tangible the challenges brought forward by this study and create a thought-provoking experience for an audience of professionals and general visitors within the context of a trade fair (i.e. the Biennale Interieur in Kortrijk, Belgium). The article will zoom in on the particular way in which this challenge was taken up, i.e. by creating an immersive experience embodying imminent future changes by means of five fair booths. Each represented a fictitious company with products or services aimed at new needs, opportunities and abilities emerging from changes in the relationship between people and their home interiors. This article describes the follow-up approach, the results obtained and reflects upon a series of key learnings following from the experience in particular and the role and value of conceptual design in enhancing the experience factor in foresight in general. Hence, we aim to illustrate how an immersive conceptual design approach can be used in an applied foresight context and how it raises new questions and opportunities for both research and applied contexts. Through physical evidencing¹ and open-ended storytelling, futures rendered tangible through design contribute to instilling a sense of wonder in people, in shifting their mindset to render them more susceptible to anticipating some of tomorrow’s changes.     

关于审计师素质的随想

关于审计人员的素质,是一个大题目。以笔者的经验体会,审计人员应该具备这样几个基本素质:第一,热情加科学的思维方式和能力;第二,丰富的专业知识和良好的业务胜任能力;第三,基于前面两点表现出的超然独立的态度和职业道德水准。下面是我由此产生的随想。     

Extending foresight: The case for and nature of Foresight 2.0

This a programmatic paper with all of the frustrations thereof [1]. We point beyond the well-tilled ground of foresight as commonly practiced (called Foresight 1.0) to an emerging understanding of the work and character of foresight (called Foresight 2.0). By definition, as of today, this new territory is not well mapped, much less carefully worked-over. The question that drives this commitment to Foresight 2.0 was the heart of the 2007 Strathclyde Organizational Foresight Conference—Learning the Future Faster: “Can foresight as commonly practiced enable us to learn the future fast enough to meet and deal with the unique strategic challenges of the 21st Century?” The view taken is that Foresight 1.0 cannot meet this challenge; that it leads to small victories and major disasters. An explanation is offered: Foresight 1.0 was developed, and is still largely practiced, with the eyes and mind of management, whereas sustained success in the unique conditions of the 21st Century requires Foresight 2.0—seeing, thinking and acting with the eyes and mind of Leadership. This distinction is explained. Evidence is offered that futures research and foresight are slowly moving towards this new practice. The hope is expressed that, if we grasp the need for it, the nature of it and have explicit mental maps of the journey to it, we who are professional foresight researchers and practitioners will move faster and more effectively to develop Foresight 2.0. Several steps towards this end are outlined.