A way out of the credibility crisis of models used in integrated environmental assessment

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been widely used in environmental policy making because they simulate natural and socio-economic systems by integrating knowledge derived from a wide range of disciplines. The current IAMs have been found to be limited due to their inability to display both the value-laden nature of the assumptions that underlie the model and the uncertainties in their outputs. A Post-Normal Science approach is required for dealing with these issues, involving participation of ‘extended peer communities’ providing their ‘extended facts’.     

A co-evolutionary model of change in environmental management

Environmental problems, and human attempts to manage them, can be conceptualised as evolutionary complex systems, involving interlinked processes of physical, knowledge, technological, institutional, perceptual and behavioural change. A distinction may be made between changes in physical systems (‘physical emergence'), changes in human knowledge about those systems (‘knowledge emergence') and changes in human perceptions (‘perceptual emergence'). While processes of physical and knowledge emergence are important, it is through perceptual emergence that a phenomenon comes to be regarded as a ‘problem' or ‘issue', potentially leading to changes in policy, institutional arrangements or behaviour. The paper proposes a soft complex systems model of the relationships between these processes, illustrated with examples from the history of air quality management in the UK. The model also has wider application in the understanding of other complex issues of environmental management.     

Monetary policy, ‘dollarization,’ and parallel market exchange rates: The case of the Dominican Republic

Excessive money creation may give rise to inflation tax revenues and to a depreciation of the domestic currency. this in turn leads to a shift away from the domestic currency into a foreign currency (e.g., the US dollar, hence the term ‘dollarization’). From the domestic monetary authority's point of view, ‘dollarization’ is an unwelcomed phenomenomn, thus the monetary authorities will attempt to arrest the ‘dollarization’ phenomenon while maintaining the excessive money growth. This paper develops and tests a model which analyzes the effects of monetary policy on dollarization and the ‘parallel’ market exchange rates.     

The end in sight?: Some speculations on environmental trends in the twenty-first century

For a generation there has been unresolved debate between anxious environmentalists and sanguine ‘contrarians’, both of which have been able to amass strong evidence in favour of their positions. This is an important paradox, and the paper attempts to resolve it by means of an elementary but robust model of environmental trends between 1950 and 2100. A crucial feature of the approach is to disaggregate the developed ‘North’ and developing ‘South’, revealing strikingly different patterns. The North's environmental impact will decline steadily, but in the South a rapid increase in environmental impact can be expected in the first half of the 21st century, followed by an equally rapid decline. This dramatic environmental ‘spike’ will be unique in human history and mark a fundament transition to the sustainable state. Its qualities and duration will determine many features of the human and natural world for millennia to come. Many policy implications flow from this analysis. Controversially, it suggests that the ‘spike’ should be embraced and managed rather than avoided or delayed.     

Enterprise resource planning systems, management control and the quest for integration

This paper analyses how two companies pursued integration of management and control through enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. We illustrate how the quest for integration is an unending process and it is produced concurrently and episodically. Integration is not only about ‘mere’ visibility and control at a distance. ERP systems do not define what integration is and how it is to be developed, but they incur a techno-logic that conditions how control can be performed through financial and non-financial representations because they distinguish between an accounting mode and a logistics mode. A primary lesson from our cases is that control cannot be studied apart from technology and context because one will never get to understand the underlying ‘infrastructure’—the meeting point of many technologies and many types of controls. ERP systems are particularly interesting for what they make impossible, and our cases illustrate how the two organizations in the quest for integration mobilized a number of ‘boundary objects’ to overcome systems-based ‘blind spots’ and ‘trading zones’. The paper points out that management control in an ERP-environment is not a property of the accounting function but a collective affair were local control issues in different parts of the organization are used to create notions of global management.     

Bridging the divides of online reporting

This paper looks at the possibilities of improving online reporting by closing the ‘digital divide’ through a ‘digitalised revolution’ and by narrowing the ‘accounting divide’ through the sharing of power and the expansion of membership in the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). Paradoxically, whilst the IASB may have contributed to the ‘accounting divide’ it may very well possess the potential to close it and thus improve online reporting. The potential to bridge the ‘accounting divide’ rests with the greater participation by developing country members to exert influence and ownership of the accounting standards setting process.     

Transferring knowledge across sub-genres of the ABC implementation literature

In the last decade, a continuous stream of empirical articles has investigated how various implementation process factors (including, top management support, adequate resources, and ABC training) influence ABC implementation success. However, at the same time, a growing number of researchers have criticised this ‘mainstream approach’ for, among other things, neglecting issues of power and politics and for viewing ABC implementations as something inherently positive. Based on Lukka and Granlund's [Lukka, K., Granlund, M., 2002. The fragmented communication structure within the accounting academia: the case of activity-based costing research genres. Acc. Organ. Soc. 27, 165–190] call for communication between various streams of ABC research, the purpose of this paper is to discuss how the ‘mainstream’ implementation literature may benefit from insights made in the politically oriented literature. A key conclusion is that such an analysis not only provides us with enriched explanations of the relatively strong and coherent findings in the ‘mainstream’ ABC implementation literature, but has also the potential to explain ‘unexpected’ and ‘contradictory’ results found in this stream of research. Based on these observations, a number of directions for future research are proposed.     

Efficiency in the gold market — a note

This paper investigates the efficiency of the gold market with respect to the information contained in sequences of successive price changes. Tests for serial correlation and modelling the changes as first-order Markov processes indicate some short-term dependence. While there is no reason to believe outsiders can profit from knowledge of these relationships, insiders might, though this is not certain. In addition, the application of a market model to monthly returns for the period 1974–1977 results in the finding that gold's ‘alpha’ and ‘beta’ were positive, but not significantly different from zero.     

The simple dynamics of a debt crisis

Optimal growth path of an ‘impatient’, neoclassical economy is studied, when creditors impose a credit ceiling to prevent debt repudiation. The ceiling becomes binding in finite time. When the credit-constrained regime begins, foreign capital inflows and domestic investment fall abruptly. Output per-capita, consumption, and real wages gradually decline, while the real interest rate rises. These results show that debt crises, in which high external debt is associated to low growth, can occur even in the absence of unanticipated shocks, policy mistakes, or ‘debt overhang’ effects. If distortionary policies cause ‘impatient’ behavior, the model is consistent with chronic capital flight in the debtor country. (JEL F34, F32)     

Global modelling in the 1990s : A critical evaluation of a new wave

It seems that after a ‘golden decade’ in the 1970s and a period of decay in the 1980s, global modelling is making a comeback. In particular, the report Scanning the Future seems to mark the beginning of a new era in this respect. In this article this ‘new wave’ of the 1990s is compared with the ‘old wave’ of the 1970s. Although there is progress in the scientific realm, these new models lack a deep concern for the burning problems of our time like the poverty gap between the North and the South and the ‘ecological problematique’. In many ways these new models reflect the new mood of the times, which lacks any vision of a new paradigm and which is strongly ‘northern-centric’.     

Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data

This paper uses contemporaneous monetary data to carry out econometric tests of the ‘equilibrium’ approach to modelling the relation between monetary disturbances and macroeconomic fluctuations. The theoretical analysis introduces into an equilibrium macroeconomic model the availability of preliminary data on current monetary aggregates and the process of accumulation of revised monetary data. The econometric analysis tests two hypothesis derived from this extended model. One hypothesis concerns the neutrality of perceived monetary policy. The econometric results imply rejection of this hypothesis. The other hypothesis concerns the non-neutrality of errors in preliminary monetary data. The econometric results fail to reject the contrary of this hypothesis. These tests provide strong evidence against the reality of the equilibrium approach.     

Breaking the link with a university education in the creation of a chartered accountant: The ICAS story

Accountancy is now well established as an elite professional occupation in most parts of the world and much of this status has been afforded through an association with educational qualifications. The assumption that a university education adds value to individuals, employers and society has led to a massive increase in tertiary education both in the UK and internationally and there is a societal expectation in the UK that a university education is the norm rather than an opportunity reserved for the academically elite. However, within this context, the chartered accounting profession in Scotland (ICAS) is considering opening up training to school leavers and other non-graduates as part of its ‘Fast Forward to 2010’ strategy. Evidence from the sociological literature suggests that any alteration in the educational composition of the members of a professional group may adversely impact upon that group's status and standing in society. In turn, any change in the educational qualifications of the members of a profession risks influencing the perceptions and aspirations of potential recruits.In this study we seek to further our understanding of how potential recruits perceive and evaluate both university education and the accountancy profession as an occupational group. In addition we consider how the school leaver route may be viewed by potential recruits in terms of its impact upon individuals' career aspirations and the overall status of the profession. By collecting data from school pupils from both the public and the private educational sector and first year and final year university undergraduates from a ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ university this study has identified some of the possible consequences of the ICAS proposal and provides insights relevant to an understanding of the professional identity of CAs in the 21st century. As such, our insights may serve to assist policy-makers in understanding the potential consequences of any changes in the educational requirements of future recruits.     

Organic salmon farming: risk perceptions, decision heuristics and the absence of environmental accounting

This paper reports on interviews with salmon farmers exploring their decision as to whether to adopt organic production methods. Organic salmon farming has the potential to considerably reduce the social, environmental and economic risks associated with salmon farming. Salmon farming is an industry subjected to intense scrutiny and is highly controversial. The combination of these two factors was expected to reveal the use of environmental accounting in evaluating this potentially difficult, expensive strategic decision, responding to the barrage of public criticism, driven by changing environmental regulations and a potential value shift by key actors.However, interviews revealed that going organic was regarded as a normal agricultural decision, largely based on price forecasts. The shift to organic was relatively easy, unproblematic and not too expensive. The environmental pressure groups campaigns had very little impact on this decision and it was not subjected to systematic accounting evaluation. The interviews described a sector exhibiting many of the characteristics of Beck's Risk Society thesis (1992, 1995, 1996).Decision makers’ risk perception is identified as important for considering what factors are thought to be legitimate/illegitimate and powerful/weak in the decision making process. Unless risks are considered ‘real’ by the decision makers then the associated costs/benefits of doing or not doing something are not going to figure in the decision heuristics, regardless of the nature of their calculation. Environmental accounting could play a part, not necessarily at the individual farm level, but as part of a reflexive process in reconstructing the underlying knowledge of the social, environmental and economic risks of salmon farming as a whole.     

Resurrection of traditional communities in postmodern societies

Modern societies seem to have recognised the importance of communities and the community capacity to be self reliant, and to reduce burden on the state, at least to some degree. Thus it is hardly surprising that several western countries’ current policies have been reverberating with the idea and vision of community responsibilities, participation and decision making. What kind of communities do these policies envision? Can western societies resurrect traditional communities in postmodern societies? To address such questions, this paper argues that though highly challenging, it is possible to rebuild some elements of traditional communities in postmodern societies. In fact, such creation is an ideal world to live in. For that to occur western societies should give adequate time, resources and commitment to it, as they did to create modern societies. Most importantly, they also need to somewhat alter their ‘life style’: “When you throw ‘individuals’ from the window, communities rush in through the door”.     

Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard

In the course of PPP research, much of the debate over the validity has been over the choice of an appropriate ‘basket’ for making purchasing power comparisons. The different compositions of goods and services in these baskets across countries have resulted in arguments against their usefulness for PPP purposes. This problem is augmented by the existence of productivity differentials in traded and non-traded goods across countries. Therefore we consider the use of the Big Mac as the international monetary standard as being a more palatable alternative: It is produced locally in over 80 countries around the world, with only minor changes in recipe and thus has the flavour of ‘the perfect universal commodity’. Our results indicate that the Big Mac Index is surprisingly accurate in tracking exchange rates over the long-term, which is consistent with previous PPP research findings. We subsequently enhance our PPP comparisons by taking into account the productivity differentials between countries and excluding non-traded goods from the Big Mac Index to derive the No-Frills Index.     

Beyond the mundane: reconciling breadth and depth in futures enquiry

For some time there has been a need within Futures Studies (FS) to develop methods which go beyond the dominant empirical tradition. For many years there has been a near-exclusive emphasis on understanding the external world ‘out there’. But as time has gone by, so it has become clear that our ability to understand the world ‘out there’ crucially depends on an underlying world of reference that is ‘in here’. Understanding the near-future environment calls for a combination of ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ views which, for example, give as much credence to judgment as to calculation. This paper considers a way of considering these very different ‘ways of knowing’. Overall, the aim is to go beyond what might be termed ‘mundane’ analysis, i.e. that which is preoccupied with surfaces, and to open out a broader arena for futures enquiry.     

Flexible specialization, new technologies and future industrialization in developing countries

Developing countries increasingly recognize that in the future far more attention will need to be paid to firms located outside the modern or formal sector. In this context, the complex of recent microelectronics and organizational innovations seems highly attractive for these are often said to be capable of facilitating a pattern of industrialization based on flexible, small-scale production, rather than on the more typical large-scale technology of mass production. This article, accordingly, seeks to evaluate the various mechanisms through which the new technologies—and the more general possibilities implied by the various definitions of ‘flexible specialization’—may in fact contribute to such an alternative model of industrialization.     

‘Rules of the game’ during the International Gold Standard: England and Germany

The paper suggests an alternative framework to test hypotheses about central bank policy rules during the International Gold Standard. This framework is inspired by work of Mundell (1968) on optimal central bank policies, and more recent literature on the theory of economic policy, which stems from Luca's (1976) critique. Empirical tests obtained from this approach are quite different from those appearing in the empirical literature on the Gold Standard.The results of the tests indicate that the Bank of England was not optimally targeting international gold flows. Inthe case of the Rechsbank, the hyphothesis that international gold flows were optimally targeted is not rejected at the 5 per level. Thus the data suggest that the Reichsbank was following the ‘rules of the game’, whereas the Bank of England was not.     

Accounting relativism: the unstable relationship between income measurement and theories of the firm

The knowledge structures underlying accounting representations are rarely investigated and usually tend to be taken for granted. As a case of the problematic knowledge foundations of accounting, we concentrate on one of the most relevant conceptual underpinnings informing the construction of the accounts—the relationship between theories of the firm, accounting theories, and income measurement. In particular we analyse and compare the ways in which this relationship has been conceived and developed in two theoretical contexts, the Italian tradition of Economia Aziendale and the US entity vs proprietary debate. Various and contradictory approaches to the concept of the firm and income calculation in these two theoretical traditions emerge. Such a conceptual variety is what we refer to as ‘accounting relativism’. This is defined here as the co-existence of different accounting representations and measurements, both of which are not objectively rankable in any conceptual hierarchy, because of the incommensurability of their basic assumptions, i.e. of their knowledge bases. This intrinsically ‘unstable’ character of accounting at a conceptual level is likely to have relevant implications, representing a major source of theoretical variety, as well as a premise for making sense of power uses of accounting within organisational settings. ©     

Mentoring and the tolerance of complexity

This paper explores mentoring in the light of complexity theory and the premium placed upon knowledge in organisational viability. A key question is “what is the role of mentoring, as a developmental and knowledge creating process, in a complex environment?” There are two parts to the discussion. First, we explore complexity at work, and what it means for the individual. We link the central ideas of complexity theory with the notion of a ‘corporate curriculum’, an inclusive concept intended to capture the complex nature of learning at work, in all its variants. Secondly, we speculate on the contribution mentoring can make in complex organisations where employees are part of a knowledge economy by virtue of being knowledge producers and being engaged in learning at work. The environments in which we work are becoming more complex and mentoring is also complex. There is a synergy here. For people living in complexity where there are few rules, no right answers and no predictable outcomes, we suggest that mentoring can play a distinctive role in helping people to ‘tolerate’ complexity and remain effective.