Editor's introduction: Distributional consequences of emerging technologies

Emerging technologies have a great potential to exacerbate inequalities. The papers in this special section represent case studies of the ways five different technologies interacted with particular national contexts to produce distributional effects. A central hypothesis of the study was that the same technological project would have different distributional consequences under different national conditions; this was confirmed. Public interventions shaped the trajectories of the technological project through intellectual property and anti-trust provisions as well as regulations, much more than through the research agenda itself. These technologies were not associated with large gains or losses in jobs, but rather with modest shifts downward in numbers and upwards in skill requirements. Price was not the only determinant of how far the technologies diffused; skills and infrastructure were also important. In sum, distributional consequences take many forms. “Diffusion” consists of both push and pull, need and absorptive capacity. The relevant decision makers are in both the public and private sectors, and a broad range of policies affects this process, not just science, technology, and innovation policies. There are many options for public intervention, but no one size fits all countries.¹     

Emerging technologies in emerging markets: Introduction to the special section

Emerging technologies have significant implications and profound consequences for firms, markets, government policy, and society as a whole. In emerging markets, however, social uncertainties are as important as technological and market uncertainties, and moreover are somewhat more complex. The papers in this special section offer views of how these important social uncertainties can be considered concurrently with technological and market uncertainties, particularly because they play a relatively larger role in emerging markets than in more advanced markets.     

Use of decision modeling for substitution analysis: Application to acceptance of new electricity-generating technologies

Substitution theory is a trend forecasting technique which purports to forecast the rate of replacement of one product or technology for another. Most existing methods describe substitutions in which one item is substituting for another. The rate of substitution is usually determined by an S-shaped function based mainly on the rate of the substitution in its early stages. This paper presents an alternative approach, decision modeling, which not only expands the area of application to multiple substitutions occuring simultaneously but can also treat cases where new substitutions have not yet begun. An application to the substitution of new electricity generating technologies is discussed in detail.     

Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies

Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&T). Forecasts of the likely future development of S&T are generated; then research and development (R&D) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast. But for new and emerging S&T this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are not articulated yet. A promising approach however is building mapping tools based on underlying patterns and indicators of the dynamics of emergence. This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach. The work is linked to a programme of Future oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities coordinated within a European nanotechnology research network.

Our paper addresses well-known lacunae of alignment tools from the viewpoints of the path creation/dependency literatures. We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms. We demonstrate a plausible variety of paths, which provides a broader set of strategic choices. This enables management of expectations and hype by which emerging S&T are characterised, and leads to alignment of actors. Our tool can be applied in strategic management of research and R&D at the level of science-to-industry networks. These are becoming an important element in European S&T policy but will only be successful if ways are found for closing gaps in the innovation chain.     

Inventor networks in emerging key technologies: information technology vs. semiconductors

This paper analyzes the development of the German knowledge base measured by co-classifications of patents by German inventors and relate this technological development to changes in the structure of the underlying inventor networks. The central hypothesis states that technologies that become more central to the knowledge base are also characterized by a higher connectedness of the inventor network. The theoretical considerations are exemplified in a comparative study of two patenting fields—information technology and semiconductors. It turns out that information technology shows the highest increases in patents, but only a moderate move towards the center of the knowledge base. By contrast, semiconductors develops towards a key technology, despite a moderate increase in the number of patents. The dynamic analysis of inventor networks in both fields shows an increasing connectedness and the emergence of a large component in semiconductors, but not in information technology, which is in line with the expectations.     

Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy

Science and technology for renewable and sustainable energy are indispensable for our future society and economics. To meet the goal of sustainable energy development, there is a growing body of research efforts world wide. The planner of energy research has to grasp the broader coverage of scientific and technological research, and make decisions on effective investment in promising and emerging technologies especially under circumstances of limited resources. In this paper, we track emerging research domains in energy research by using citation network analysis. Our analysis confirms that the fuel cell and solar cell are rapidly growing domains in energy research. We further investigate the detailed structure of these two domains by clustering publications in these domains. Each citation cluster has characteristic research topics, and there is a variety of growth trends among the clusters. By using citation network analysis, we can track emerging research domains among a pile of publications efficiently and effectively.     

Dismantling the ivory tower: The influence of networks on innovative output in emerging technologies

In this article we examine how R&D networking affects an organization's innovative output. Using empirical data on 419 research organizations in transgene plant research over a 20-year period, we test several hypotheses relating their sociometric position in an R&D network to their innovative output. Attention is paid to the relative importance of in-house versus collaborative research. Least squares dummy variable models are used to analyze cross-sectional data across different time periods. The results show that (1) an organization's “network embeddedness” positively influences its innovative output; whereas (2) involvement in collaborative R&D has a curvilinear effect on innovative performance.     

Determinants of patent value: Insights from a simulation analysis

This paper contributes to understanding the determinants of patent value. By drawing on a real options approach, we develop a theoretical model of patent value, which explicitly considers the uncertainty about future value. On this basis, we rely on Monte Carlo simulations with data from a case study in a large chemical firm to estimate patent value according to our model. In the simulation analyses, we compare an R&D project with patent protection and the same project without patent protection. The difference of the values of the two projects is the surplus in profit that may be expected from having a patent covering the project. This surplus is regarded as the value that is directly attributable to the patent. The results of the simulation analyses indicate that the development costs and expected net cash flows of a patent-protected project are higher than of an unpatented project. The higher net cash flows outgrow the increased development costs, and patent value is positive. However, this value is smaller than the overall project value of the patent-protected R&D project.     

Anticipating technology-driven industry convergence: evidence from large-scale patent analysis

ABSTRACT

Industry convergence has been the subject of many prior studies, yet most have focused on certain domains based on ex post evaluation. This study presents a systematic approach to anticipating technology-driven industry convergence using large-scale patent analysis covering all technology fields. Our approach includes patent co-classification analysis with the concordance between patent classes and industrial sectors to measure technological relations between industries; centrality and brokerage analysis to identify the specific roles of technology fields in industry convergence; and finally link prediction analysis to anticipate technology-driven industry convergence. A case study with the patents issued by the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 1976 to 2014 confirms that our approach provides a holistic and forward-looking perspective on technology-driven industry convergence.     

Determining demand, supply, and pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive process technologies

A model for forecasting the likely market size and demand for an early-stage emerging process technology is considered. This method takes into account markets, supply, demand, supply/demand gap, pricing, implications to government policy, corporate strategy, and value of intellectual property. For the purpose of illustration, forecasting of microsystems is considered.     

Accessing and producing tissue cultured banana plantlets in Costa Rica and Jamaica: Insights on the distributive consequences of emerging technologies

This paper analyzes the distributive dynamics associated with production, access to, and use of tissue-cultured banana plantlets in Costa Rica and Jamaica. In particular, it studies the research, commercialization, and production strategies undertaken in these two countries. It identifies the actors involved, the mechanisms implemented to produce and improve access to tissue cultured plants, as well as barriers to broad-based adoption. The discussion is framed by the concept of absorptive capacities and more particularly, by a revised perspective that differentiates between potential and realized capacities. In so doing, it emphasizes the dynamic aspects behind the process of moving from potential to realized capacities. Inherent aspects of tissue culture technology overlap and interact with socio-economic conditions; and become key to the dynamics of knowledge advancement, production, and distribution of benefits. In this context, policy choices play a major role in directing the dynamics towards a more distributed technological development.     

Investigating the determinants of patent acquisition in biotechnology: an empirical analysis

Acquiring patents is an increasingly relevant opportunity for innovating companies, especially after the rise and development of the so-called markets for technologies (MFTs). However, only scant attention has been devoted to investigate patents' characteristics influencing their acquisition by organisations. Accordingly, this paper aims at filling this gap by analysing how four main characteristics – as patent scope, scientific knowledge cited by the patent, forward patent citations, and number of patent claims – impact the likelihood of patent acquisition. We based our statistical analysis on a sample of 9716 US Patent and Trademark Office patents assigned to 165 biotechnological firms. Results support our conjectures and offer interesting managerial implications for organisations operating within MFTs indicating which characteristics make patented technological solutions more likely to be acquired by other firms, as a narrow scope, inclusion of scientific knowledge, and a number of forward citations able to increase patent's impact and exclusion rights.     

International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning

New, techniques of international patent anabsis are illustrated and resultsfrom preliminary validity tests of these techniques are presented. Indicators of technological activity, technological significance and commercial potential are constructed, and used to analyze fiber-based opto-electronic couplers and monoclonal-antibody-based diagnostic kits at the levels o f the technology, nation and firm. The international patent indicators are found to be closely correlated with R&D expenditures, scientific publications and new product introductions. They also relate to these indicators in ways that moke sense as specified in simple regression models of the innovation process. Comparisons of patent analysis results with expert opinion (for two process technologies) reveal that technology–level analyzes conform quite well with expert opinion, but national – and firm–level analyes vary from a low to a modest correlation with expert opinion. The authors conclude that the techniques can provide important information for corporate technology management, but that studies of additional technologies and further validity tests are needed.     

International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning

New, techniques of international patent anabsis are illustrated and resultsfrom preliminary validity tests of these techniques are presented. Indicators of technological activity, technological significance and commercial potential are constructed, and used to analyze fiber-based opto-electronic couplers and monoclonal-antibody-based diagnostic kits at the levels o f the technology, nation and firm. The international patent indicators are found to be closely correlated with R&D expenditures, scientific publications and new product introductions. They also relate to these indicators in ways that moke sense as specified in simple regression models of the innovation process. Comparisons of patent analysis results with expert opinion (for two process technologies) reveal that technology-level analyzes conform quite well with expert opinion, but national - and firm-level analyes vary from a low to a modest correlation with expert opinion. The authors conclude that the techniques can provide important information for corporate technology management, but that studies of additional technologies and further validity tests are needed.     

Effects of Eastern European and Western technologies on LDCs: a macroeconometric analysis

Questions involving technology transfer to less developed countries (LDCs) command an increasing interest in the world today. In this paper, two macroeconometric models are developed to compare the impacts of Eastern European medium-advanced and Western most-advanced technologies on the economic growth of LDCs. The models are then used to analyse data from the Egyptian industrial sector for the period 1952–1980.     

Using patent analysis to establish technological position: Two different strategic approaches

Discussions on business strategy formation in the past 50 years can be separated into two categories: the inside-out and the outside-in approach. Technology is a critical factor when manager formulate their business strategy, and patents have served as an important indicator of technology. A patent portfolio can be used to understand the capabilities of a firm, as an inside resource pattern; and the patent citation of firms can be used to find the relationship of a firm, as an outside dependency. This study uses patent information to establish an effective model for the technological position of business methods. The 5 by 6 matrix was generated and four situations between firms were induced. Researchers and managers can use that matrix and situations to recognize the real competitors or cooperators, and formulate the technological strategies which include competition, cooperation, or complementary cooperation.     

Keeping abreast of technology-driven business model evolution: a dynamic patent analysis approach

All firms that depend on technology for their competitive positions recognise that keeping abreast of technology-driven business model evolution is of vital importance. However, previous studies cannot offer a concrete way of profiling trends owing to the lack of quantitative data and systematic processes. We propose a dynamic patent analysis that can identify complex relationships among business method patents and visualise trends in technology-driven business model evolution. At the heart of the suggested approach is morphological analysis (MA) for structuring different types of business models at a technological attribute level and modified formal concept analysis (FCA) for investigating technological changes in business models over time. A case study of business method patents concerning electronic shopping is presented to show the feasibility of the proposed approach. We believe our method can promote consensus-building on up-to-date trends in technology-driven business model evolution, serving as a starting point for a more general model.     

Mapping technological development using patent citation trees: an analysis of bogie technology

We create a generational patent citation tree to reveal the development of bogie technology in the high-speed rail industry. We cull the information in patent citations to reveal the generational development of bogie technology by analysing patent titles, patent publication dates and patent-granting regions. We then measure the development of bogie technology by calculating its technological development on-orbit rate and by mapping the stages of technological development and its regional diffusion. The results show that bogie technologies are in a period of sustained growth and this period of sustained growth will remain. Technological development is accelerating and this acceleration will persist, although the global dispersion of technology lags behind in scope and speed.