An innovative regime switching model to forecast Taiwan tourism demand

The tourism industry has become a major part of economic development for many countries. These countries have greatly invested in tourism to attract more tourist arrivals. Hence, the need for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand is important. Various approaches have been applied to forecast tourism demand of different countries. However, tourism demands tend to be imprecise and their trends nonlinear. In addition, there may be drastic changes in the tourism demand time series. To properly handle these problems, this study proposes an innovative forecasting model to detect the regime switching properly and to apply fuzzy time-series model to forecast. The monthly tourist arrivals to Taiwan will be used as forecasting target. The analysis by the proposed model will be validated by the major events as well as previous studies.     

印尼宣布退出欧佩克

<正>印度尼西亚能源部长珀瑙摩·尤斯展特陶若5月28日在首都雅加达宣布,签署法令正式退出石油输出国组织欧佩克(OPEC)。珀瑙摩称,印尼退出欧佩克的原因是石油产量自给不     

Structural changes in world crude oil trade

The way in which international trade in crude oil is conducted has changed drastically since the beginning of 1979. Who has access to crude oil in producing countries, in what quantity, at what prices, and for how long is in question. Jochen Mohnfeld analyses, recent trends and future developments, paying special regard to the producer countries’ tendency to require more state involvement of importing countries in crude oil trade and drawing some tentative conclusions for the latter’s energy policies.     

Crude oil prices and the balance of trade: Asymmetric evidence from selected OPEC member countries

The contribution of this article is to assess whether the effects of crude oil price fluctuations on the trade balance are symmetric or asymmetric in the context of an individual oil-exporting country, specifically four OPEC member countries – Iran, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. To examine this subject thoroughly, we use three different measures of trade balances such as oil trade balance, non-oil trade balance, and total trade balance, and examine whether oil prices are asymmetrically passed on to the trade balances for those OPEC countries in the long- and short-run. After implementation of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that changes in oil prices indeed have asymmetric effects on the oil trade balance for all four OPEC countries in the long-run, though not in the short-run. In the case of the non-oil and total trade balance, however, the asymmetry of oil price changes is not detected in both the long- and short-run.     

别奢望全球性繁荣--2003年世界经济贸易形势

2002年世界主要国家和地区的经济都出现程度不同地好转,尽管增长速度较年初预计的要慢,但没有出现新的衰退已是不幸之中的万幸.多数国家和地区内需增长乏力,投资回升有限,金融市场动荡加剧是全球经济低速增长的主要原因.特别是美国、欧盟和日本三大经济体经济复苏低于预期.美国受股市重挫的影响,消费需求依然疲弱、消费者信心指数下降,工商业投资放缓、制造业增长停滞;日本的出口虽有所增长,但企业设备投资低迷,私人消费萎缩,失业率上升;欧元区国内需求缺乏活力,投资尚未从上年的下降中恢复.     

Economic and political risks of world oil markets

The present easing on the world oil market could foster the illusion that energy problems are now resolved. During 1981 various oil-producing countries (OPEC and non-OPEC alike) found they had to cut their prices. OPEC production has had to be reduced by about one-third from the 1979 level of 31 mbd¹. Last September’s OPEC output of 20 mbd was the lowest monthly figure for 12 years and has by year-end 1981 recovered to just 22 mbd. “The OPEC is no longer able to dictate prices; there is more oil than the market can take.” These are typical recent comments, but they reflect too short-term and superficial a view. The real issue is the question whether energy supplies are secure in thelong term, too, and whether energy itself presents a danger for general economic and political developments.     

Structural changes in world trade since the oil crisis

The sudden shock of the fivefold increase of the price of oil in the autumn of 1973 has been reflected since in the world trade by structural changes in its composition by categories of goods and its regional distribution. How has the international trade coped with this shock, and which more recent tendencies can be observed in the structure of world trade, not least as a result of cyclical impulses?     

Modelling the effect of store flyers on supermarket sales: An application to olive oil demand

In this paper we study the effect of store flyers on supermarket sales while controlling for other promotional strategies. We use a dataset of weekly sales of 16 olive oil products from a Spanish supermarket chain during the year 2017. We estimate a dynamic panel data model by GMM which allows us to examine both the short- and long-run effects of displaying products in store flyers. Our estimates show that products being featured in a store flyer exhibit 85 percent higher sales in the short-run, being the effect in the long-run of 109 percent. We also provide evidence that olive oil is a highly price-elastic product. Our estimates also indicate that placing the products on the end-of-aisle increases olive oil sales. Conversely, multibuy promotions are negatively related with sales.     

强化内部监管 保持平稳发展

专卖制度保护下的烟草企业,"如何加强行业自律,做好企业内部监管"已成为中国烟草行业频频提及的热门话题,也倍受社会各界关注.     

浅析国际石油价格持续上涨对世界经济的影响

本文简要回顾了三次石油危机，得出世界经济的发展与石油的需求息息相关；进而分析了近年来石油价格持续上涨的原因，最后从四个方面阐述了油价上涨对世界经济的影响。