中国和日本的加工食品贸易格局和经济效率分析

本文运用贸易经济效率指数比较了两个典型的东亚国家中国和日本在加工食品方面的贸易表现.由于大国效应和数量庞大的中小贸易公司的恶性竞争,以及缺少有效的贸易管理措施,中国大部分加工食品出口和部分产品进口的经济效率恶化了.而日本仅在食品进口方面经济效率下降,可能原因是严格的技术壁垒导致进口来源集中于发达国家.本文建议中国通过整顿贸易秩序以及合理选择贸易时机来提高加工食品贸易的经济效率,日本的可行对策则是在保证产品质量的同时改变进口来源.     

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: Implications for Red Meat and Grain

Canada and the U.S. acknowledged the problems arising from trade barriers and sought to reduce them through negotiation of a bilateral Free Trade Agreement. Implementation of the FTA may cause significant economic changes within the red meat/livestock and grain sectors for both countries. Although both sectors are of major importance, the actual magnitudes and distribution of gains and losses have not been quantified. This paper focuses on consumer and producer welfare issues and the effects of the FTA on the red meat/livestock and grain sectors for selected regions of the U.S. and Canada. Data were carefully researched, expert opinion was solicited from both countries, and a mathematical programming model was used to complete the analysis. The 1989 provisions of the FTA will have only marginal effects on the respective sectors or on welfare as measured in the model. The analysis demonstrates that if additional provisions of the FTA are phased in over time (partial FTA policy) instead of being adopted all at once (comprehensive FTA policy), more severe dislocations occur. For either scenario, and as measured in the model, consumers benefit at the expense of producers. Le Canada et les Etats-Unis ont reconnu les problèmes provenant des barrières commer-ciales internationales, et ont churché à les réduire a travers la négociation d'un accord bilatéral de libre échange. La realisation de cet accord « FTA » pourrait entrainer des change-ments économiques importants, dans les secteurs viande de boeuf et céréales, pour les deux pays. Bien que les deux secteurs soient d'une importance majeure, l' étendue des gains et des pertes n'avait pas encore été évaluée. Ce papier se préoccupe de la répartition des bénéfices aux consommateurs et aux producteurs, ainsi que des effets du FTA sur les secteurs viande de boeuf et céréales de certains régions des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Les données utilisées dans ce papier ont été soumises à une recherche soignée, les opinions d'experts des deux pays ont été solicitées, et un modèle de programmation mathématique a été employé afin de compléter cette analyse. Les provisions 1989 du FTA n'auront que des effets marginaux sur les secteurs respectifs et les bénéfices, tels qu'ils sont mesurés dans le modele. L'analyse demontre que l'adoption d'une façon graduelle de provisions supplémentaires du FTA « partial FTA policy » aura des conséquences plus sévères qu'une adoption totale de toutes ces provisions « comprehensive FTA policy ». Selon Tun ou l'autre des scénarios, tels que mesuré dans le modèle, les consommateurs profiteraient au dépens des producteurs.     

The Impact of an EU–US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement on Biofuel and Feedstock Markets

We assess the impact of a potential TTIP bilateral free trade agreement on the EU and US bio‐economies (feedstock, biofuels, by‐products, and related competing crops) and major trade partners in these markets. The analysis develops a multi‐market model that incorporates bilateral trade flows (US to EU, EU to US, and similarly with third countries) and is calibrated to the OECD‐FAO baseline for 2013–2022 to account for recent policy decisions. The major policy reforms from a TTIP involve tariff and TRQ liberalisation and their direct contractionary impact on US sugar supply, EU biofuel production, and indirect negative effect on US high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production. EU sugar and isoglucose production expand along with US ethanol and biodiesel and oilseed crushing. EU sugar would flow to the US, US biofuels and vegetable oil to the EU. We further quantify non‐tariff measures (NTM) affecting these trade flows between the EU and the US. EU oilseed production contracts, and EU crushing expands with improving crushing margins following reduced NTM frictions. Our analysis reveals limited net welfare gains with most net benefits reaped by Brazil and not the two trading partners of the TTIP.     

Home Bias in Primary Agricultural and Processed Food Trade: Assessing the Effects of National Degree of Uncertainty Aversion

This study investigates the effects of national degrees of uncertainty aversion (unfamiliarity avoidance) on the magnitude of bias towards domestic products rather than imports. The empirical analysis is implemented for primary agricultural and processed food products, using a panel dataset covering trade between and within OECD countries. Primary agricultural products are often blended and associated with reference prices. Conversely, processed food products exhibit higher levels of product differentiation. The empirical results confirm expectations by emphasizing the magnifying effects of uncertainty aversion on home bias in the case of processed food products but not in the case of primary agricultural products. These magnifying effects are primarily associated with processed food products destined for final household consumption. Other results reveal significant variations between different countries (based on geo‐economic and national income categories). Our results also indicate that home bias and uncertainty aversion effects on home bias have not decreased over time. The empirical results remain robust under different estimation methods.     

An Economic Analysis of the Effects of the Uruguay Round Agreement and Full Trade Liberalization on the World Dairy Sector

A dairy trade model of the world dairy economy is developed. The model incorporates the allocation of milk fat and solids- nonfat among dairy commodities in a spatial equilibrium context. The model is used to simulate the market equilibrium impacts of the Uruguay Round Agreement and full free trade in the world dairy sector, including prices, production, consumption and trade flows. The free trade results indicate average world prices for farm milk near current U.S. levels, while farm milk prices in western Europe, Japan and Canada fall by 25.8%, 36.4% and 32.3%, respectively. In contrast, Australia and New Zealand farm milk prices rise by 22.5% and 50.8%, respectively.
Un modèle de l'économic laitière mondiale est développé. Le modèle analyse l'allocation spatiale du lait, de ses composantes (c'est-à-dire, matière grasse, protéine) et des produits laitiers. Il est utilisé pour simuler les effets de l'accord de l'Uruguay et de la libéralisation des marchés sur l'économie laitière, y compris sur les prix, la production, la consommation et les échanges commerciaux. Les résultats indiquent qu'en présence de marchés libres, les prix mondiaux seraient proches des prix courants aux États-Unis, alors que leprix du lait diminuerait de 25,8 %, 36,4 % et 32,3 % en Europe de l'Ouest, au Japan et au Canada, respectivement. Par contraste, le prix du lait en Australie et en Nouvelle Zélande augmenterait respectivement de 22,5 % et 50,8 %.     

Market Power in the Philippine Retail and Processed Food Industry

Various models have been employed to analyze market power in the food industry but none has explored combining these models to reinforce their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. This article illustrates an application of these models in a multistage framework using the case of the Philippine retail and processed food industry. Price transmission is examined in the first stage of analysis using cointegration and price asymmetry models. Conjectural variation and bargaining models are employed in the second and third stages of analysis. Results indicate that market power exists in industries where price transmission is asymmetric.     

Valuing Food Store Access: Policy Implications for the Food Stamp Program

Food stamp recipients may lack access to larger stores, reducing the availability of nutritious food. Reliance on smaller stores may have undesirable impacts. Policy alternatives include limiting food stamp redemption to larger stores and subsidizing store development. I estimate that limiting redemption to supermarkets and grocery stores, or supermarkets alone, results in losses ranging from $499.2 million to $1.05 billion, or $1.17 billion to $2.44 billion (respectively) annual loss in food stamp recipient welfare nationwide. The impact of improving access is also significant, ranging from $333.6 million to $931.2 million.     

World Black Tea Markets: Relationships and Implications for the Global Tea Industry

Prices at world tea auctions are interlinked across different black tea markets. This study applied the cointegration approach using Engle-Granger 2-stage estimation procedures to examine the extent to which these markets are linked. We analyzed the relationships between monthly average tea auction price data from 7 selected markets from Africa and Asia and found out black teas markets are defined more from the type of manufacture. Black tea markets seem segmented between orthodox types of tea mainly exported by Sri Lanka and Cut-Tear-Curl type traded in Mombasa, Kenya. Cointegration results show that tea agribusiness firms can benefit by simultaneously adopting both modes of manufacture. The tea boards in the respective countries should promote diversification of products into other segments of the market while at the same time control quality of tea, which by default will curb oversupply.     

Trade and the Political Economy of Food Standards

This article presents a political economy model of public standards in an open economy. We use the model to derive the political optimum and to analyse different factors that have an influence on this political equilibrium. We analyse the relationship between trade and the political equilibria and compare the political outcome with the social optimum to identify under which cases political considerations lead to standards being set ‘too low’ or ‘too high’, and which standards could be labelled as protectionist measures.     

The North American Free Trade Agreement and the Canadian Agri-Food Sector

In the past five years, Canada has negotiated and ratified three trade agreements: the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the multilateral free trade agreement now administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper focuses on the implications for agri-food trade of the NAFTA and its interface with the other two agreements. The provisions of the NAFTA are described and evaluated as they relate to market access, domestic support, export assistance, technical regulations and dispute settlement. Observations are presented on the NAFTA's potential effects on trade in red meats, grains and oilseeds, supply-managed commodities and horticulture. In addition, some of the shortcomings of the NAFTA are highlighted.     

Open Agricultural Markets and Trade Foster Development of LDC's

Small economies with a narrow resource base need open international trade more than a large country with a wide range of resources. This paper discusses the role of open markets and trade in development of LDC's. It emphasizes the importance of constitutional law that guarantees basic freedoms of choice as the foundation of open market systems. Governments most useful role in development is to provide essential public services and infrastructure and to provide the legal and economic environment for opportunity, incentives and innovation.     

Household Food Demand in Burkina Faso: Implications for Food Policy

Chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of Burkina Faso to emphasize technological research with the goal of increasing the production of the most-consumed locally-grown cereals: sorghum, millet and maize. Meanwhile, urban consumers have been developing preferences for rice and wheat, cereals that are primarily imported. This study estimates demand relationships among food items in Ouagadougou, Burkina. The results of the estimation suggest that prices, income, household composition, education, marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations. Both local and imported cereal consumption responded positively to an income increase. However, incremental income changes would lead to relatively greater consumption of locally produced cereals by low-income households whereas high-income households would consume relatively more wheat and rice. The household model is then used to demonstrate its relevance in addressing food policy issues, by forecasting the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios. With increased production due to advances in technology, the urban demand levels do not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals, but deficits persist in the rice-wheat sector. The results underscore the importance of technological research since Burkina could become self-sufficient in at least the production of sorghum, millet and maize.