The effect of auditors’ internal control opinions on loan decisions

We examine the effect of internal control reports on lending officers’ assessments of a company’s creditworthiness. We suggest that an adverse internal control opinion can undermine the assurance provided by an unqualified opinion on financial statements taken as a whole and have a negative affect on lenders’ assessments. In addition, we investigate whether auditor size plays a role in determining the effect on lenders’ judgments.     

CAPM and APT-like models with risk measures

The paper deals with optimal portfolio choice problems when risk levels are given by coherent risk measures, expectation bounded risk measures or general deviations. Both static and dynamic pricing models may be involved. Unbounded problems are characterized by new notions such as (strong) compatibility between prices and risks. Surprisingly, the lack of bounded optimal risk and/or return levels arises for important pricing models (Black and Scholes) and risk measures (VaR, CVaR, absolute deviation, etc.). Bounded problems present a Market Price of Risk and generate a pair of benchmarks. From these benchmarks we introduce APT and CAPM-like analyses, in the sense that the level of correlation between every available security and some economic factors explains the security expected return. The risk level non correlated with these factors has no influence on any return, despite the fact that we are dealing with risk functions beyond the standard deviation.     

Choice and change of measures in performance measurement models

This paper uses management control, resource-based, systems-based and contingency-based strategy theories to describe a large U.S. manufacturing company's efforts to improve profitability by designing and using a performance measurement model (PMM). This PMM includes multiple performance measures relevant to its distribution channel for products, repair parts and maintenance services. The PMM is intended to reflect the company's understanding of performance relations among strategic resources, operational capabilities, and desired financial outcomes. The PMM also reflects its intended distribution strategy, the types of performance necessary to achieve that strategy by its distributors, and its desired financial outcomes. Furthermore, the company uses the model to evaluate its North American distributors and intends to use these evaluations as a partial basis for annual and long-term rewards. Thus, the PMM embodies the measurable portion of the firm's management control system of its distribution channel.The study addresses four research questions: (1) Are measure attributes important considerations for performance measure choice? (2) Does the importance of attributes differ according to firm strategy? (3) Does the importance of attributes for design and use differ according to firm strategy? (4) Does a company trade-off some individual attributes for others? The questions are investigated using qualitative and quantitative analyses of archival documents and interviews with top managers and distributors. Principal findings are that measure attributes are important considerations for choice and change of performance measures, design attributes are more important than use attributes, the importance of attributes does not appear to differ according to strategy, and some individual attributes are traded-off for other attributes.     

The effect of non-financial performance measures,organisational politics and political skill on job performance: Evidence from China

We investigate the role of organisational politics (i.e., general political behaviour, going along to get ahead and pay and promotion policies) and political skill on the relationship between non-financial performance measures and job performance, relying on a sample of manufacturing firms in China. Results suggest that non-financial performance measures positively affect managers' job performance, and non-financial performance measures reduce general political behaviour and pay and promotion policies. Results further suggest that managers' political skill positively affects job performance, and political skill also moderates the relationships between (1) general political behaviour and (2) pay and promotion policies, and job performance.     

The impact of family control on the use of performance measures in strategic target setting and incentive compensation: A research note

This paper deals with the impact of a firm's governance structure on its management control system (MCS). We argue that the involvement of founding family members in the top management team (TMT) as a corporate governance characteristic has an impact on how the TMT exercises control over subordinates. Based on a sample of 304 mainly small and medium-sized firms, our paper provides empirical evidence that founding family involvement in the TMT is associated with the latter making less use of performance measures in its strategic target setting and incentive practices, and that this impact of family involvement is moderated by firm size.     

Contagion effect on bond portfolio risk measures in a hybrid credit risk model

This paper illustrates how modelling the contagion effect among assets of a given bond portfolio changes the risk perception associated to it. This empirical work is developed in a hybrid credit risk framework that incorporates recovery rate risk. Dependence structures among firms and between external shocks affecting firms together are considered. The presence of correlations among firm leverage ratios and the interrelation between default probabilities and recovery rates produces clusters of defaults with low recovery rates. This has a major impact on standard risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and conditional tail expectation. Consequently, an appropriate measurement of the contagion has a tremendous effect on the capital requirement of many financial institutions.     

The effect of causal knowledge on individuals' perceptions of nonfinancial performance measures in profit prediction

Although organizations commonly report nonfinancial performance measures (NFPMs) associated with profitability, prior research does not address the extent to which the provision of causal knowledge affects individuals' perceptions of the predictive content of such measures. This study examines how providing NFPMs together with different types of causal knowledge (i.e., strong, weak, or none) affects the perceived usefulness of the measures in a profit prediction context. Weak causal knowledge is defined as the direction of the relationship between an NFPM and earnings, while strong causal knowledge is a complete explanation underlying the relationship. The results provide evidence that providing weak causal knowledge increases individuals' perceptions of the predictive content of an NFPM compared to providing no causal knowledge; however, providing strong causal knowledge does not incrementally affect perceptions beyond providing only weak causal knowledge. These findings have implications for the type of information organizations report concurrently with NFPMs.     

Associations between strategic resource importance and performance measure use: The impact on firm performance

This study investigates the relation between managers’ perception of the importance of several types of performance measures and managers’ assessment about the importance of the firm's strategic resources that sustains its competitive advantage. Furthermore, it investigates whether there is a significant association between the importance of performance measures and firm performance, and thus, whether performance measures are mediating variables in the relation between the importance of strategic resources and performance. Using survey data from 107 companies, the results indicate that managers place importance on multiple measures and show some evidence that the importance of performance measures mediates the association between the importance of strategic resources and performance. Implications and insights are discussed, along with ideas for future research.     

基于战略风险管理模式下的养老保险公司风险管理分析

战略风险管理模式是金融企业比较流行的一种全面风险管理模型。本文在分析养老保险公司业务经营及风险管理特殊性的基础上,应用战略风险管理基本思想,提出了当前形势下养老保险公司风险管理的核心问题,并对公司目前面临的风险类别、风险因素以及风险管控措施进行了分析研究。     

Outliers,GARCH-type models and risk measures: A comparison of several approaches

In this paper we focus on the impact of additive outliers (level and volatility) on the calculation of risk measures, such as minimum capital risk requirements. Through simulation and empirical studies, we compare six alternative proposals that are used in the literature to reduce the effects of outliers in the estimation of risk measures when using GARCH-type models. The methods are based on [1] correcting for significant outliers, [2] accommodating outliers using complex (e.g. fat-tail) distributions and [3] accounting for outlier effects by robust estimation. The main conclusions of the simulation study are that the presence of outliers bias these risk measures, being the proposal by Grané and Veiga (2010) that providing the highest bias reduction. From the out-of-sample results for four international stock market indexes we found weak evidence that more complex models (specification and error distribution) perform better in estimating the minimum capital risk requirements during the last global financial crisis.     

The effects of tone at the top and coordination with external auditors on internal auditors’ fraud risk assessments

Prior research suggests that internal auditors’ judgements are subject to management influence resulting in compromised risk assessments. This study investigates the effects of the tone at the top and coordination with external auditors on internal auditors’ fraud risk assessments. Results of an experiment involving 64 internal auditors indicate that when the tone at the top is poor, rather than favouring management, internal auditors report a higher risk of intentional misstatements and that coordination with external auditors can further reduce expectations of the incidence of intentional misstatements.     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study

Theoretically-driven, market-based contingent claims models have recently been applied to the field of corporate insolvency prediction in an attempt to provide the art with a theoretical methodology that has been lacking in the past. Limited studies have been carried out in order directly to compare the performance of these models with that of their accounting number-based counterparts. We use receiver operating characteristic curves to assess the efficacy of thirteen selected models using, for the first time, post-IFRS UK data; and investigate the distributional properties of model efficacy. We find that the efficacy of the models is generally less than that reported in the prior literature; but that the contingent claims models outperform models which use accounting numbers. We also obtain the counter-intuitive finding that predictions based on a single variable can be as efficient as those which are based on models which are far more complicated – in terms of variable variety and mathematical construction. Finally, we develop and test a naïve version of the down-and-out-call barrier option model for insolvency prediction and find that, despite its simple formulation, it performs favourably compared alongside other contingent claims models.     

国家风险对我国出口贸易效应的实证分析

2008年金融危机导致全球贸易环境恶化,国家风险加大,我国出口贸易规模下降。本文运用回归模型,分析了金融危机前后中国的国别出口规模与其对应进口国的国家风险之间的相关性以及出口市场结构对相关性的影响。论文提出在国家风险评级相对下调的发达市场,中国要缓解出口的下滑,以及在收入水平较低的新兴市场,中国要扩大对其出口规模,及时识别、防范并化解国家风险具有重要意义。论文从出口信用保险的角度为我国化解国家风险、发展对外贸易提出了相关政策性建议。     

Public perception of dementia risk in the UK: a mental models approach

Abstract

Dementia is a leading cause of death in the developed world. A number of modifiable risk factors for dementia have been identified, yet lay knowledge on dementia risk is limited. A mental models approach was used to compare lay and expert knowledge of risk in order to identify target areas for lay education. This method assumes experts and laypeople use different cognitive representations to make sense of phenomena. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 8 experts and 15 laypeople to construct mental models of dementia risk. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and entered into NVivo qualitative data analysis software for coding. Findings indicated that laypeople had some knowledge of modifiable risk factors but in contrast to the expert mental model, laypeople poorly understood the causal links between these factors and dementia risk. Lay participants were unsure of the interaction between modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors and primarily attributed dementia risk to ‘bad luck’. It is suggested that future dementia education could benefit by building upon a general appreciation of healthy behaviour with particular focus on explaining the causal pathways to dementia risk. Additionally, it may be productive to inform laypeople it is possible to ‘change one’s luck’ by engaging in protective behaviours.     

The impact of litigation risk on the strategic timing of management earnings forecasts

This paper examines whether managers strategically time their earnings forecasts (MEFs) as litigation risk increases. We find as litigation risk increases, the propensity to release a delayed forecast until after the market is closed (AMC) or a Friday decreases but not proportionally more for bad news than for good news. How costly this behaviour is to investors is questionable as share price returns do not reveal any under‐reaction to strategically timed bad news MEF released AMC. We also find evidence consistent with managers timing their MEFs during a natural no‐trading period to better disseminate information.     

Risk minimization in stochastic volatility models: model risk and empirical performance

In this paper the performance of locally risk-minimizing delta hedge strategies for European options in stochastic volatility models is studied from an experimental as well as from an empirical perspective. These hedge strategies are derived for a large class of diffusion-type stochastic volatility models, and they are as easy to implement as usual delta hedges. Our simulation results on model risk show that these risk-minimizing hedges are robust with respect to uncertainty and misconceptions about the underlying data generating process. The empirical study, which includes the US sub-prime crisis period, documents that in equity markets risk-minimizing delta hedges consistently outperform usual delta hedges by approximately halving the standard deviation of the profit-and-loss ratio.     

The influence of auditor narcissism and moral disengagement on risk assessments of a narcissistic client CFO

Global capital markets rely heavily on independent and skeptical auditors as gatekeepers to provide assurance that corporate financial reports are free of material fraud. The rise of narcissism among the ranks of both client and audit professionals challenge this gatekeeper function. In addition, auditor moral disengagement may undermine auditor skepticism, further eroding public confidence in the integrity of financial reporting and the audit process. We conduct a quasi-experiment with 118 auditors from three international audit firms. In a simulated interview with a client CFO, we examine whether auditors underestimate risks of fraudulent financial statements due to the interactive effects of (1) client narcissism (manipulated verbally and nonverbally) and (2) auditor narcissism. We also examine the influence of auditor moral disengagement on client risk assessments. Results indicate that CFO verbal and nonverbal narcissism significantly influenced auditors’ assessment of management-related client risk. Moreover, auditor narcissism was found to interactively influence client risk inferences such that auditors higher in narcissism exhibited narcissistic tolerance (lower risk assessments) when the hypothetical CFO displayed high verbal narcissism. Auditor moral disengagement was negatively associated with client risk assessments. We discuss the implication of these findings on future audit judgment research, audit firm policy and training on maintaining auditor skepticism, and the audit oversight role of standard-setters.