Credit Market Failures and Policy

In a simplified version of the Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) model of the credit market we characterize optimal policies to correct market failures. Widely applied policies, notably interest-rate subsidies and investment subsidies, are compared to the theoretical optimum.     

加强企业信用建设 建立行业信用体系——中国市场学会副会长兼信用工作委员会主任赵凤梧访谈录

2007年10月,党的十七大号召全党全国人民高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜、为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而奋斗。     

信息不对称、企业特征与商业银行信贷配给

商业银行对企业的信贷支持近年来虽有很大提高,但信贷配给问题依然存在.本文从理论上探讨了企业投资收益水平和收益波动幅度等特征对商业银行信贷配给的影响,提出了相应的理论假说,并利用经验研究进行了验证.实证结果显示,银行的信贷支持会随着企业收益水平的提高而增加,随着利润波动幅度的增加而下降,企业固定资产占总资产比例的提升有利于增加银行信贷支持,上市的中小企业并没有受到信贷歧视.     

不确定环境下的公司信用政策

公司信用政策的运用是公司财务战略管理的重要组成部分,在不确定环境下,“总信用成本”可视为公司信用政策的决策成本;本文讨论了在收益、成本与风险两难冲突下信用政策的决策模型及安全性与流动性管理策略、赢利性管理策略。     

信贷风险、资本金约束与货币政策的有效性

本文通过向Bemanke-Blinder的CC-LM模型植入信贷风险与资本金约束,基于扩展的一般均衡框架探讨了信贷风险评估与资本金监管对货币政策有效性的影响机理.分析表明,信贷风险与资本充足率构成了对商业银行信贷决策的双重约束,货币政策的有效性不仅取决于中央银行的政策意图,还受制于商业银行对此双重约束的因应.以扩展的CC-LM模型为基准,文章从信贷风险和资本金约束的角度,解释了我国货币政策实践中尤其是两轮金融危机下货币政策的有效性差异.     

企业信用重构与会计信息失真治理

信用系统理论指出信用是建立在系统信任之上的一种有条件的期待性承诺。会计信息是企业经营活动情况的表征,是由专业人员依据会计准则和严格的统一格式做成的会计报表反映的经济信息,是企业信用建构的信任系统。企业会计信息真实、准确、公允、正当是企业信用信任系统;信任系统是信用的基石;因此,会计信息是企业信用重构基础。     

主权财富基金、外汇储备管理与货币政策有效性

中国主权财富基金——中国投资公司的资产负债安排对国内银行体系流动性以及货币政策有效性具有负面影响。必须改革我国外汇储备管理体制:一是财政部应该介入外汇储备的管理;二是赋予中央银行更大的独立性,自主决定购买政府债券的时机和规模,切断外汇储备与银行体系流动性之间的对应关系。     

Health, Wealth, and Fairness

How much health should we have and how should it be distributed? This paper studies how to define social objectives for the allocation of health and income in a setting where individuals may differ in their preferences about health and consumption, earning ability, and health disposition. It is shown, on the basis of three simple ethical principles, that a reasonable social objective is to apply the maximin criterion to “full‐health equivalent” incomes. An application to the choice of the optimal health policy illustrates how this social objective may be used.     

Monetary Policy, Credit and Aggregate Supply: The Evidence from Italy

This paper concerns theory and evidence of the monetary transmission mechanisms. Current research has deeply investigated factors, such as dependence of firms on bank credit, that amplify the impact of monetary policy impulses on aggregate demand exerting strong but temporary effects on output and employment. We present an intertemporal macroeconomic equilibrium model of a competitive economy where current production is financed by bank credit, and then we use it to identify supply–side effects of the credit transmission mechanism in data drawn from the Italian economy. We find evidence that the 'credit variables' identified by the model – the overnight rate as a proxy of monetary policy and a measure of credit risk – have permanent effects on employment and output by altering credit supply conditions to firms.
To save on space, mathematical proofs, statistical tests and data sources have been gathered in two separate appendices that can be examined on request.
(J.E.L.: E2, E5).     

跨国公司并购国有企业的政策研究

随着中国市场的不断开放和中国经济在世界经济中地位的不断上升,跨国公司更倾向于并购大型国有企业以实现在中国的本地化的经营。并购这种快速进入中国市场的有效方式,将外资并购推向一个高潮期。规范的跨国并购能为国有资产退出提供重要的途径。在并购政策的设计上,一方面要缩小“国退”、“外进”产生的偏离,引导外资更积极地发挥国有经济退出中承接主体的作用,另一方面要规范外资并购我国国有企业,防止国有资产流失。     

我国企业债券融资、财务风险和债券评级

影响我国债券评级的决定因素有以下三点:(1)影响债券评级最关键的因素是发债企业总资产的规模,即企业资产规模越大,其评级越高;(2)政府政策对该发债项目或行业支持与否时债券评级有正的影响,即发债项目或其所在行业是有国家政策明确支持的,其评级可能越高;(3)企业的财务风险如资产负债率和长期负债比率等对债券评级没有显著的影响,企业的绩效如资产收益率对债券评级也没有显著的影响.目前评级机构的评级不能反映企业财务风险与绩效的好坏,债券上市后评级的动态调整也几乎不存在.这说明我国目前企业债券市场的信用风险评级与欧美的债券市场存在极大的差异.     

信贷规模规避与货币政策调控

随着紧缩性宏观经济调控措施的不断出台,我国商业银行的货币信贷投放行为受到抑制。在此背景下,商业银行转而加强与信托公司合作,规避信贷规模管理。本文在分析近期信贷规模规避典型模式的基础上,探讨了其对货币政策调控的具体影响和未来挑战。本文认为,应强化对货币信贷的统计分析,丰富货币政策工具,密切关注金融创新对货币政策的影响,充分考虑微观主体对各种宏观调控政策的博弈,从而有的放矢地制定出科学的宏观调控政策。     

Wealth Effects, Incentives, and Productivity

Comparative static effects of varying the wealth level of a risk-averse agent in a moral hazard setting with limited liability constraints are investigated. There are two principal opposing effects of increasing wealth: the incentive effect, which allows stronger punishments for poor performance, thereby encouraging higher effort; and the preference effect, which reduces the agent's effort incentives owing to income effects in the demand for leisure. It is shown that optimal effort levels are initially constant, subsequently increasing and eventually decreasing in wealth. Hence agents with intermediate wealth levels are the most productive.     

关于推进企业信用体系建设的思考

加快建立和完善企业信用体系,是解决我国目前企业信用危机的重要措施。文章对现今我国企业信用缺失现象造成的危害及产生的原因进行了简要分析,提出了有一定价值的对策。     

Wealth inequality, entrepreneurship and industrialization

The paper shows that in a two-good economy with a basic and a luxury good sector inequality is indeed a hindrance to provide sufficient incentive for entrepreneurship to low-wealth economic agents. In contrast to the literature it uses both demand and supply-side explanations for the analysis. An entrepreneurial subsidy policy to encourage entrepreneurship in autarky financed by a lump sum tax on the rich is not very effective in unequal economies since it hardly impacts the welfare. When trade is opened up in the luxury good sector of such an economy the sector might cease to exist. In such a scenario, the rich people being the sole consumers would reap the entire benefits of globalization via low price of the imported luxury good. The paper highlights that the crucial question is: ‘how to globalize’ rather than ‘whether to globalize’ and suggests policy measures to make globalization inclusive.     

The Credit Channel of Capital Tax Policy

A neoclassical growth model is augmented by a corporate sector, financial intermediation, and a set of tax rates. In this setting, capital structure is determined by the interplay between a tax advantage of debt finance and costly state verification entailed by asymmetric information. Effects of capital tax reforms are investigated with a special focus on this micro‐founded credit channel of tax policy. The theoretical part of the paper establishes a new, institution‐based view on the motivation of debt finance in general equilibrium and derives financial and real effects of private and corporate income tax policies. Using a calibration with U.S. data, the applied part demonstrates that tax cuts cause significant adjustments of capital structure. Nevertheless, it turns out that the credit channel generates relatively small effects of tax reforms on consumption, investment, and growth.     

跨国企业投资、政府招商行为与最优引资政策选择

通过构建一个以东道国利益为核心的博弈理论分析模型,从静态与动态两个方面对跨国企业投资与东道国政策选择之间的均衡问题进行了研究.研究结果发现,在其他条件不变的情况下,东道国外资优惠政策的最优水平与资本缺口的大小以及对外资需求的迫切程度成正比,与投资环境的优越程度成反比.因此,对于东道国而言,外资政策应朝向合理、有效且注重优化投资环境的方向发展.