Something unforeseeable happened? Natural rate theory and economic crisis

“Natural rate theory” — the application of the efficient market hypothesis to labour markets — has guided economic policy since the 1970s and laid the foundations for the design of major European institutions in the 1990s. Unfettered markets were declared to be stable, and consequently public policies and regulations were regarded as distortions. This led to a division of labour in which central banks were responsible only for price stability, governments for labour market reforms and unions for low wages. The European discussion focused almost exclusively on labour market reforms to reduce unemployment. Against the background of the recent dramatic drop in economic activity, this paper confronts natural rate theory with actual economic trends and argues that the predictions of the theory hardly fit the facts.     

Accession of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland to the European Union: Impacts on Agricultural Markets

We analyse the consequences on agricultural markets of enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for two enlargement scenarios assuming different policy restrictions on grain and dairy production in the acceding countries. Accession of the three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices for most commodities. In the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase drastically, final consumption of agricultural products decreases in most instances, while production increases. Higher domestic prices in the CEECs reduce exports of most commodities to non‐union countries. Consequently, excess supplies are placed in stocks or exported to the original 15 member countries. Supply management mechanisms in the dairy and grain sectors would reduce the build‐up of surpluses in the new member states, but limit their ability to take advantage of the expanded market. Accession of the three CEECs would increase the CAP budget over its proposed maximum if area payments are extended to incoming crop producers.     

EU accession: Negotiating “environmental dumping”?

“Environmental dumping” is a concern frequently raised in discussions on the potential risks involved in the eastern enlargement of the European Union¹ (EU).² There is a general concern that the Central and Eastern European accession countries may be neither willing nor able to fully apply the EU’s environmental acquis communautaire, the body of Community environmental legislation, once they have joined the EU. As a result, these countries would benefit from a competitive advantage when selling their goods on the Internal Market. This article asks whether, and in which specific cases, such concerns may be justified.     

Agriculture in the EU’s Eastern enlargement

After almost a decade of preparations, with many delays caused by disagreement about the specific conditions under which CEECs will adopt the Common Agricultural Policy, the schedule for the European Union’s “Eastern” enlargement has finally been set. This article deals with the current status of the enlargement and the outstanding agricultural issues for CEECs following the Copenhagen European Council.     

German Investment in Ireland and in the Central and East European Countries

The accession of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to the EU is expected by many to lead to the diversion of foreign direct investment towards the CEECs and away from other EU countries. The following paper focuses on the investigation of the internationalisation strategies and location choices of German multinational corporations (MNCs) in manufacturing against the background of growing regional economic integration, and particularly the fifth EU enlargement. It draws on the findings of a case study and interview results covering three German MNCs and their location choices for investment in both Ireland and the new EU member countries from Eastern Europe. This research project has been co-funded by the RIA in Dublin and DAAD. A first version of this work was presented at the September 2005 Irish Academy of Management Annual Conference in Galway.     

Enlargement and the EU budget: The battles ahead

The coming enlargement of the EU is unprecedented as regards both the number of acceding countries and the wealth differentials existing between the Union's current members and the candidates. The contributors to this forum present their views on how the complex financial issues involved can be solved in a way that will enable the enlarging Union to continue to function while ensuring a fair distribution of the costs and benefits of enlargement. This article is part of the project “Membership of Central and Eastern European Countries in the EU” funded by the Otto Wolff-Stiftung, Cologne.     

New developments in international agricultural trade

The nineties have seen a number of developments which will have major consequences for international agricultural trade. Will the changed conditions in the world agricultural markets enable less developed countries (LDCs) and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to exploit their comparative advantages better, or will the reforms further squeeze them out of the industrial countries’ markets?     

New risks ahead: The eastward enlargement of the Eurozone

The eastward enlargement of the eurozone will follow hot on the heels of the eastward enlargement of the EU. The membership of the accession countries in the eurozone, however, may cause additional risks both for these countries and for the EMU itself. The following paper gives an overview of how policies and markets will be affected and discusses, in the light of the risks involved, whether the Maastricht criteria should be revised to cater for the special needs of the accession countries. Professor Bolle and his team coordinate the research programme “EZONEPLUS—The Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone”, supported by the European Union. The project includes research institutions from Estonia, Finland, Italy, Poland, Portugal and Slovenia.     

Flexicurity – a European Approach to Labour Market Policy

Although linguistically somewhat strange, “flexicurity”, the combination of labour market flexibility and security for employees, has become a much praised cornerstone of European labour market policies. Obviously, in an environment with rapid technical progress and frequently changing market conditions, employers need to manage their labour force flexibly. In order to achieve this flexibility without creating an unbearable situation for employees, security is the second pillar of the concept. Security refers, however, to “employability” rather than safety from dismissal. As such, the concept looks like an innovative European way of consolidating economic and social interests, although some argue that much flexibility is gained while the security aspect is being neglected. The concept has been successfully adopted in some European countries, notably Denmark and the Netherlands. However, each country has to find its own concept of “flexicurity” using a distinct combination of instruments that fit the national institutional, social and civic context.     

European Transport Policy in a Broader Perspective

On 12 July 2007 the European Parliament passed, with an overwhelming majority, a resolution on the Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament of 22 June 2006 entitled “Keep Europe moving – Sustainable mobility for our continent – Mid-term review of the European Commission's 2001 Transport White Paper”.1 This article outlines the main positions of the European Parliament in relation to the focal points of the Commission's position concerning present and future European transport policy.     

Has Germany Been Europeanised or Has Europe Become (too) Germanic?

It has often been argued that European monetary unification must basically be seen as a device to Europeanise re-unified Germany. For the Germans it seemed to be the best possible way to prevent a German “Sonderweg” and end any German ambition for hegemony. For the rest of Europe, and particularly France, it seemed to be the best way to curb German monetary dominance and to secure a French imprint on EU policy-making. In this article, however, it is argued that the German impact on the economic governance regime of EMU and its fencing off the French proposal of a “gouvernement economique” is so substantial that the term “Germanic Europe” seems in fact to be appropriate. More importantly, the economic governance system of “Germanic Europe” has locked the European Union into a politics of disinflation which makes it difficult for the EU to prosper and reap the potential fruits of European integration.

---

---

* This paper was written while the author was a guest researcher at the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI), Brussels, from March to April 2005. He is most grateful to Andrew Watt for his help and the ETUI for its support.     

EU enlargement: External economic implications

The coming eastward enlargement of the EU has not prompted much debate about its external economic implications, quite in contrast to the fierce debates which accompanied previous enlargements. This article discusses the main economic effects of the CEECs' move from “association” to EU membership, and in particular the external impacts with respect to agriculture, industry and FDI. It also deals with the somewhat sensitive subject of US-CEEC bilateral investment treaties, as well as the prospects for catch-up growth by the accession countries.     

EU integration of transition countries: Overlap of requisites and remaining tasks

Transition and reorientation towards Western Europe have been the two decisive challenges for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) since 1989. Whereas in the early 1990s the transition from the central planning system to a market economy was the main goal of economic policies, the requirements for closer integration with the Western European countries have since then increasingly gained in importance. How do the two processes overlap? What requirements remain to be met before the candidate countries can join the European Union?     

Convergence among EU regions, 1990–2001

This article focuses on convergence in terms of output per working age person across regions in the European Union for the period 1990–2001. Controlling for the quality of national institutions, the authors investigate whether the status of “objective 1” region improves the speed of convergence as compared to what would be expected given the regions' initial conditions. They find evidence of conditional convergence among EU regions, with the quality of national institutions having a positive impact, but no evidence of a correlation between eligibility for objective 1 and faster convergence.     

Regional and institutional heterogeneity matters! Revisiting trade effects of the euro

The creation of a single currency is deemed to produce further heterogeneity in regional trade, as regions differ in their exposure to trade with other European countries. It is possible to disentangle two separate effects on bilateral trade, namely the “exchange rate volatility effect” (from exchange rate fixing in 1999) and the pure “common currency effect” (resulting from the issuing of a new currency in 2002). This paper presents an empirical analysis that shows evidence of a regional concentration of currency union effects in a few Spanish regions.     

Endogenous tariffs and economic transformation

There is a widespread consensus that trade policy reforms in the successor states of the former Soviet Union in general and in Russia in particular are subject to major obstacles which are larger than in Central and Eastern European transformation countries. The following paper discusses some crossroad decisions facing the implementation of Russian trade policies and analyses the major external constraints facing the Russian economy in this regard. Paper presented at the German-Russian Conference on “New Developments in Economic Theory and Policy”, 5–7 October 1994, organised by the Institut für Gesellschafts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften at the University of Bonn and convened by the Faculty of Economics, Humboldt University Berlin. The paper reports on research undertaken in a project on the prerequisites for integrating the former Soviet Union into the world economy. Financial support received from the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Stiftung is gratefully acknowledged.     

Is the EU's labour market threatened by a wave of immigration?

As the accession negotiations continue between the European Union and the Central and Eastern European Countries, Germany in particular fears that granting free movement of labour to these countries might generate a wave of new entrants that could overwhelm its labour market. The following article uses migration determinants and draws on previous experience of integrating countries into the EU in an attempt to reach conclusions about migration patterns that may result from the forthcoming eastward enlargement.     

The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets

If sovereign wealth funds act similarly to private investors and thus allocate foreign assets according to market capitalisation rather than liquidity considerations, official portfolios reduce their “bias” towards the major reserve currencies — the US dollar and the euro. As a result, more capital flows “downhill“ from rich to less wealthy economies. In this scenario, the euro area and the United States would be subject to net capital outflows while Japan and the emerging markets would attract net capital inflows. The potential implications of a rebalancing of international capital flows for stock prices, interest rates and exchange rates remain uncertain, however. The authors wish to thank Marcel Fratzscher for excellents comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank.     

The future of European integration: Visions, challenges, perspectives

In the last five years the European Union has developed at a speed unknown since its beginnings in the Fifties. As a result, the EU is participating in the last three reserves of the European nation state's sovereignty: the currency, the judiciary and the military. The achievements already made, not only enlargement, make the reform of the structures of the Union a necessity. Its institutions must be tailored to these achievements, not just arithmetically adjusted to the increasing number of Member States. MEP, former President of the European Parliament, Brussels, Belgium, and Strasbourg, France. The article is based on a speech given at the Symposium “Challenges for the European Future”, Hamburg, 28 October 2000.     

Labour market institutions,learning and self-employment

We develop a dynamic partial-equilibrium model to analyse how labour market institutions (wage compression, minimum wages, unemployment benefits, mobility costs and fixed-costs of self-employment) and learning affect who and when people become self-employed. We find that certain ability groups of workers become self-employed for both “carrot” and “stick” reasons: Some prefer self-employment to the low institutionalised wage, while others are not productive enough to qualify for a job at the institutionalised wage. Furthermore, wage compression and learning may give rise to a class of switchers who start in wage employment and later switch to self-employment. Several predictions of the model are consistent with observed empirical regularities, such as the existence of a group of low-skilled self-employed workers, the increasing propensity for self-employment over age groups and the larger spread in earnings among self-employed.