评“不确定需求,垂直协调与电力市场结构”

汪浩(2008)发表在本刊的"不确定需求,垂直协调与电力市场结构"一文认为在一个完全竞争的电力市场中,市场的垂直结构会影响市场结果。但是文中存在一个关键性错误,改正后该文的主要结论将不复存在。也就是说,当企业为风险中性时,这个市场的垂直结构不影响均衡价格或社会福利。不过在垂直分离情况下,发电企业承担了较高的风险,同时零售企业也承担了一定风险,因此如果企业为风险厌恶,那么垂直结构可能的确会对市场结果产生影响。     

我国电力市场改革需要实用渐进

对照五号文件确定的改革蓝图,评价目前我国电力市场改革的总体状况,可以用“体”改而“制”未改来简单概括。准确地说,是传统的垂直一体化垄断经营模式由现在的发电和输配电两环节垄断经营模式所取代。“体”改是成绩方面,主要表现为实现了厂网分开,传统垂直一体化的电力企业分成了发电企业和电网企业两类主体,从而为发电企业之间的横向竞争和发电企业与电网企业之间的纵向竞争构造了基本条件。“体”改的另一项成绩是成立了国家电力监管委员会（以下简称电监会）。监管机构的成立和运行改变了传统的电力工业国家计划管理体制,产生了政府对企业经济活动进行微观的专业化管理的一种新形式。“体”改的第三个方面是国家电网公司系统成立了三级电力交易中心,独立的交易和系统运营机构是电力体制改革的一个重要方面,虽然目前三级电力交易中心的性质还有争议,运行也不规范,但是,这个机构的出现毕竟给市场结构和市场交易带来了新变化。通过这个机构,少量的以双边市场交易即协商定价和定量的交易开始形成,让电力企业和用户感受了一种新的交易制度。因此,发电主体、电力监管机构和电力交易机构的产生,是电力体制改革中“体”改的三项成绩。不过,五号文件确定的主辅分开和主多分开的“体”改工作看起来简单,却并没有到位。     

发电企业竞价上网的经济分析及风险控制

随着电力市场化的逐步推进,发电企业在新的竞争环境下生存和发展,是电力市场化改革中应该考虑的问题。文章通过对竞价上网运作模式的分析,从发电企业内部／外部运作进行经济性分析。考虑了发电企业的生产成本与竞价上网的收益所得,做出盈亏平衡分析,并以边际定价法进行企业利润最大化分析,以此来说明发电企业如何在竞价上网中做出有效的经济行为,由此引申出发电企业与电网公司在竞价上网的报价环节中的不确定性,应以博弈的思维做出决策以达到经济效益的优化;考虑了电力市场价格波动因素,发电企业在与大用电企业交易中的价格风险,引进电力期货市场的知识以规避风险,以使企业在竞价上网的运作过程中稳步发展。     

现代电力市场服务的内涵及外延

电力市场服务是电力产业链之间电网面向发电企业的一种产业间的中间性服务,旨在更好的实现安全稳定的电力生产,加强厂网联系,实现厂网和谐,是电力体制改革实行厂网分离后电力发展的需要。     

垂直技术转让、策略性进入行为与竞争政策规制

产业集群与知识转移和知识溢出同成长,虽然知识转移和知识溢出有较强外部性,但前者多为显性知识而后者是隐性知识。在跨国公司主导国际生产体系的制造工序垂直可分离条件下,下游企业不仅是垂直知识转移供给者也是中间产品需求者。若新企业边际生产成本高于在位企业,受让方的知识外溢就能使在位企业获更多收益。垂直知识渗漏的正外部经济激发在位企业创新动力,水平知识渗漏则迫使处于同工序企业不仅追求产品差异更注重产品创新。     

电改环境下管输企业用电直接交易若干问题及应对措施

电力体制改革中提出的电力用户与发电企业直接交易改革举措有助于管输企业降低管输用电价格。梳理了目前管输企业用电直接交易现状,分析了制约管输企业用电直接交易的4个主要因素:直接交易准入标准不明确,合同管理尚不成熟,独立输配电价尚未形成,站场较为分散导致用电较为分散。基于此,提出了6项应对措施和建议:加强政策研究;积极与政府主管部门、电力公司、发电企业沟通;与优质发电企业建立长期合作关系;建立谈判策略;建立直接交易合同管理制度;注重风险防控。为管输企业参与直接购电提供参考。     

电改环境下管输企业用电直接交易若干问题及应对措施

电力体制改革中提出的电力用户与发电企业直接交易改革举措有助于管输企业降低管输用电价格。梳理了目前管输企业用电直接交易现状,分析了制约管输企业用电直接交易的4个主要因素：直接交易准入标准不明确,合同管理尚不成熟,独立输配电价尚未形成, 站场较为分散导致用电较为分散。基于此,提出了6项应对措施和建议：加强政策研究;积极与政府主管部门、电力公司、发电企业沟通;与优质发电企业建立长期合作关系;建立谈判策略;建立直接交易合同管理制度;注重风险防控。为管输企业参与直接购电提供参考。     

垂直专业化、技术变动与经济波动

本文在新开放经济宏观经济学框架下,研究垂直专业化的决定因素及经济波动效应。结论表明,垂直专业化的均衡程度与一国制成品部门的相对技术效率以及汇率管制程度正相关,而与该国中间品部门的相对技术效率负相关。当技术冲击来自制成品时,贸易成本和汇率管制会抑制本国经济的波动幅度;当技术冲击来自中间品部门时,二者不再单一地压制本国经济波动幅度。协动分析表明,汇率管制压低了比较优势冲击下垂直专业化与GDP等变量的协动程度,贸易成本则影响垂直专业化与GDP等变量的协动方向。在较高的贸易开放度和浮动汇率制度下,技术变动可能导致GDP和福利的反向变动。     

基于煤电联动过程的战略决策分析

本文立足于发电企业在电力改革后发展所遇到的煤炭价格上涨,发电成本升高的问题,提出发电企业煤炭管理的战略,并从电力行业和煤炭行业的过去发展和之间的联系分析其战略联合的优点。     

电力企业物资管理的思考

近年来,我国电力供需矛盾逐步缓和,机组发电小时数下降,同时,因燃料价格不断上涨,整个火电行业利润水平逐年下滑,部分发电企业出现了亏损。发电企业的运营管理正发生着一系列变化,管理者已经开始意识到,合理、高效的物资管理对提升企业管理水平,提高物资供应效率,降低     

相对业绩比较和多代理人激励研究

为了研究如何激励供煤商提供更符合发电商需要的煤炭,建立了多代理人、多任务的委托代理模型。假设供煤商为代理人,发电商为委托人,研究了根据煤炭的质量、交货和价格不同,发电商给供煤商的激励价格的制定问题。分析了两个代理人在竞争和独立关系下,激励合同的制定。研究发现,在多个代理人有竞争关系时,引入相对业绩比较,即将代理人工资同其业绩相对另一代理人绩效的高出部分挂钩,并不总是帕累托改进。而且,在相对业绩比较方面,不同维度的工作能起到和相同维度的工作相同的业绩比较作用。     

基于哈伯格模型下的湖南省电力行业社会福利损失分析

自然垄断的低效率,会给社会造成很大的福利损失,而针对电力行业,其发电,配电,输电,售电四个环节中,发电,售电环节是可以竞争的,配电,输电具有很强的自然垄断特性。本文旨在根据哈伯格模型,估计出近两年湖南省电力行业造成的福利损失的大小。     

Competition in the electricity industry in England and Wales

When the electricity industry was privatized, the governmentmade structural changes to encourage competition in generationand in supply to consumers. The conventional power stationswere only divided between two companies, however, and we showthat duopolistic competition in an unregulated spot market mightimply undesirably high prices. Most sales are hedged in thecontract market, which makes the spot market more competitive,and a realistic threat of entry could also force generatorsto keep their prices down. In the event, a large amount of entrytook place, supported by the regional electricity companies'franchise monopoly over smaller consumers. That monopoly endsin 1998, so that further entry might become very difficult,while competition between firms already in the generation marketis still limited. Vertical integration between the major generatorsand regional electricity companies might make entry even harder,and should be blocked until the industry is more competitive.     

Vertical trade and free trade agreements

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on tariffs and welfare in vertical trade. We consider a three-country model, where an FTA is formed between a country exporting a final good and a country exporting an intermediate good. The FTA unambiguously leads to a reduction in the member country’s tariff, but may cause the non-member country’s tariff level to increase. In the case, where FTA raises the non-member country’s tariff level, the FTA increases that country’s welfare. In contrast, the FTA may render its member countries better off. This result implies that the formation of an FTA may not always be Pareto-improving.     

EQUILIBRIUM FARM GATE PRICE IN THE CASE OF TWO SUCCESSIVE MARKETS WITH FIXED SUPPLY

This study aims to describe the evolution of the organisational structure of raw agricultural product markets in West African countries (the supply may be regarded as fixed) using microeconomic models to assess the evolution of the farm gate price; and focusing on the impact of the vertical integration of some firms on the producer price. This paper shows that the evolution of the commercial organisational structure of agricultural products has led to a gradual improvement in the producer price. It also shows that whatever the degree of vertical integration on these markets, it has a positive impact on the farm gate price. However, even if vertical integration also improves the price of agricultural input on the intermediary market, the intermediary firms undergo a deteriorating situation.     

热电联产电厂发电及供热效益分析

利用以热量法为基础的电、热成本费用分摊方法,对典型热电联产电厂的发电、供热效益进行了测算分析。结果表明,在全厂总体盈利的情况下,发电盈利但供热亏损,发电、供热效益不平衡,存在着以发电(盈利)补供热(亏损)的情况;典型热电联产电厂发电、供热及全厂效益均随煤价的升高而下降,发电及全厂效益随电价的提高而提高,供热及全厂效益随热价的提高而提高,发电、供热及全厂的效益均随发电利用小时数的增加而提高。建议通过提高热价和增加发电利用小时数改善热电联产及供热效益。     

Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran

A monetary model of inflation was estimated on the oil-producing country of Iran for the period 1984:1–2016:4. It was found that expectations are formed rationally and that agents are forward-looking and adjust their behavior based on changes in government expenditure. Consequently, it was found that higher fiscal variables result in lower price levels over the long run. A higher oil price leads to a lower price in the country but to a higher money supply and interest rate over the long run. Furthermore, a higher domestic interest rate results in a higher price level, while the reverse is true for a higher foreign interest rate. Another cause of inflation in Iran is the foreign price level. It was found that over the short run a higher growth of the real government expenditure results in a lower inflation rate in the country but a positive change in the foreign interest rate brings in a higher inflation rate.     

Waiting for Signaling Quality

When a durable good of uncertain quality is introduced to the market, some consumers strategically delay their buying until the next period, with the hope of learning the unknown quality. I analyze the monopolist's pricing and waiting strategies when consumers have strategic delay incentives. I show when the monopolist offers introductory low prices in pooling equilibria. I also find two types of separating equilibria: one where the high‐type monopolist signals its quality by choosing a different price than the low‐type monopolist in the first period and another where the high‐type monopolist announces the product in the first period and waits to sell only in the second period. Waiting creates a credible cost for signaling; hence, the monopolist uses it as a signaling device.     

Libéralisation du commerce et intégration spatiale des marchés: Le cas du maïs au Togo

Abstract: The cereal market of Togo was liberalized in 1987. This policy aims to improve markets' spatial integration through the development of arbitrage. The paper assesses the extent of maize market spatial integration in order to understand how it has been affected by price liberalization. The monthly retail maize prices collected on 13 markets for the period from 1980 to 2001 are considered. The results show that the impact of price liberalization on markets integration is moderate. The liberalization has not significantly improved the extent of long‐run and short‐run integration of maize markets. The speed of price adjustment is relatively weak for most of the markets. In order to improve market efficiency, it is suggested that the government should create a market information service (SIM) which will be entrusted in collecting and disseminating weekly cereal prices all over the country.     

Vertical linkages and agglomeration effects in Japanese FDI in Thailand

This paper formally investigates how industrial linkages between Japanese firms in Thailand affect the inter-industry pattern of FDI. It does so in the context of a model of FDI where production is vertically integrated between the home and host economies, using a distinctive industry data set constructed from firm-level information. The econometric evidence indicates that, in addition to the factors that facilitate vertical integration (lower transport costs, lower labour cost, etc.), the opportunity to create industrial linkages or supply networks leads to additional clustering or agglomeration of FDI. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (2) (2006) 193–208.