Farm Input, Farm Output and Retail Food Prices: A Cointegration Analysis

This paper investigates the adjustment mechanism between farm input prices, farm output prices and food retail prices in Canada. Johansen's maximum likelihood approach is used in addition to the Engle-Granger approach to test for cointegration. Contrary to the common assumption that farm output prices are more flexible than farm input prices, it is found that farm output prices, though cointegrated, are weakly exogenous in the sense that they do not respond in a systematic manner to disequilibrium in farm input prices and retail food prices. Evidence is found to support “cost push” and “demand pull” theories but, since food retail prices carry a heavier weight in the cointegration relations, it can be concluded that shocks manifesting themselves (first) at the retail level do not persist as long. Cet ouvrage se concentre sur le mécanisme d'ajustement entre les prix des intrants à la ferme, les prix payés aux producteurs agricoles et les prix de l'alimentation au détail au Canada. Les techniques développées par Johansen et par Engle et Granger sont utilisées pour vérifier des hypothèses reliées à la cointegration. Contrairement à la présomption que les prix payés aux agriculteurs sont plus flexibles que les prix de leurs intrants, on a découvert que les prix payés aux agriculteurs, bien que cointégrés, sont exogènes au moindre degré dans le sens qu'ils ne s'ajustent pas en fonction du déséquilibre dans les prix des intrants et les prix de l'alimentation au detail. La théorie voulant que les prix montent à cause des hausses dans les prix des intrants est vérifiée de même que la théorie alternative voulant que les ajustements des prix se fassent du détail aux intrants. Fluctuations occasionées par des changements dans les prix de l'alimentation au détail sont dissipées plus rapidement que les ajustements causés par des variations dans les prix des intrants.     

三江平原典型国营农场土地生态安全演变研究——以洪河农场为例

以1985年、1995年、2004年和2013年四期Landsat TM/OLI影像和经济社会统计数据为主要数据来源,借用DPSIR模型框架从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5个方面构建洪河农场土地生态安全评价指标体系。采用改进的TOPSIS法对1985—2013年洪河农场土地生态安全演变进行研究,并对影响土地生态安全实现的障碍因素进行分析。研究结果表明:研究期内洪河农场土地生态安全等级变化趋势呈"V"字形,其主要障碍因素从初期的响应系统,演变为研究期末的压力和状态系统;在土地开发利用导致生态环境压力、负面环境影响不断增大的同时,人类也对自身行为进行了的调整,采取对策进行对系统环境胁迫进行了积极的响应。     

基于多元统计方法的芜湖市粮食问题初步研究

根据粮食生产波动规律,利用灰色关联分析法分析芜湖市粮食生产系统中的各个相关因素,得出提高粮食单产是解决粮食问题的主要手段的结论;运用主成分分析法得出粮食单产的主要影响因素。     

不同粮食生产经营规模农户效益分析

本文根据2002年我国粮食主产区10个省30个县的3000个农户数据，对不同经营规模的农地的效益进行了分析，为确定合理的土地经营规模提供依据。     

湖北省家庭农庄经营发展的调查及思考

家庭农庄是一种农村微观组织形式,具有经营上的规模化、专业化和较高的经济效益等优势。但受认识程度、政策支持力度、发展环境以及农庄自身的管理等方面的制约,其发展受到了一定的影响。笔者认为应给予家庭农庄合理的地位,为其创造良好的发展与生存环境,加快土地制度改革,推进家庭农庄组织的创新与发展。     

The Role of the Common Agricultural Policy in Enhancing Farm Income: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Accounting for Farm Size in Italy

As a multi-objective policy, the EU Common Agricultural Policy continues to secure significant income support for farmers as one of the nine specific objectives. We estimate the income transfer efficiency of a broad set of pivotal policy measures, focusing on the effects of farm structure on income transfer efficiency. We use dynamic modelling, based on a micro-data panel of Italian farms for the period 2008–2014, allowing for endogeneity, simultaneity bias, and omitted variables. In line with previous studies and economic expectations, we find that decoupled direct payments provide the highest contribution to agricultural incomes, followed by agri-environmental payments and on-farm investment subsidies. Coupled payments have no significant impacts on farmers’ income. Generally, for all analysed Common Agricultural Policy measures, large farms benefit from greater transfer efficiency levels compared with medium and small farms. These differences among instruments and across farms suggest that policy-participation costs may play a pivotal role, together with the economic structure of farms, in determining the income transfer efficiency of CAP policies.     

Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan

Off‐farm employment opportunities are thought to have an effect on farm exit rates, though evidence on the sign of this effect has been mixed. Examining this issue in the context of Japanese agriculture, we find that farm exits are related to off‐farm income as a share of household income, and more specifically to the nature of off‐farm work. Two econometric models are developed: a hierarchical Bayesian linear model and a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model. Both models perform well in predicting exit rates across the towns and prefectures of Japan.     

Regional Differentiation and Farm Exit: A Hierarchical Model for Tuscany

We analyse the exit behaviour of Tuscan farms during the period 2000–2007 both at the farm and the territorial level. The study combines data from the 2000 National Census of Agriculture and three waves of the ‘Farm Structure Surveys’. The exit probability of the resulting sample, composed of 3,187 farms, is estimated through a Bayesian hierarchical probit model. Our results show that exits reflect the size and type of holdings. Likelihood of exit is higher in areas of higher population density that are not classified as ‘urban’ areas.     

A pluralistic economics methodology for analysing landrace conservation on farms: a case study of Hungarian home gardens

Crop landraces contribute to food security and agricultural research that supports productivity or enhances product quality. The few extant landraces still grown in Hungary are found in home gardens, which are subsistence-oriented, small-scale family farms managed with traditional practices. A pluralistic economics methodology was developed to analyse the prospects of including landraces and home gardens in Hungary's National Rural Development Plan. The methodology draws from three fields of economic inquiry: institutional economics, environmental economics and agricultural economics. Data were collected using qualitative and quantitative approaches from over 300 farmers across 22 communities in three regions. This paper summarizes the methodology and highlights its advantages. A synopsis of findings is also reported.     

An Economic View of the Debate on Farm Size in Saskatchewan: A Comment

In a recent paper in this Journal, Jensen (1984) continues the debate on farm size in Saskatchewan. In particular, he considers the relationship between farm size and efficiency "… to determine if it is necessary to have fewer and larger farms in order to gain cost efficiency …" Attention is focused on the notion of returns to size and the vehicle for analysis is estimates of long-run average cost (LAC) curves. Individual farm data are used for different farm types in the two years, 1977 and 1980. Equations are fitted to each farm type in each year. Hence, each estimated equation is based on cross-section data. The conclusion drawn from this analysis is that, "… at the frontier, constant returns to size are the norm in Saskatchewan agriculture" (p. 199). Moreover, "Governments could consider removing policies which favor large units …" (p. 198).     

Land betterment capture revisited: A methodology for territorial plans

The main goal of this article consists in the proposal of a developer obligations’ instrument aimed at capturing land betterments that result from planning decisions and from the implementation of territorial plans, reassigning them to public infrastructure, equipment and social purposes. It consists in charging for extra development rights beyond average municipal urban built-up areas. It is founded on a research and consultancy work for the Portuguese Territory Department (a governmental organism) within the scope of the revision of the Land Planning Act and complementary legislation, namely the new Juridical Regime of Urbanization and Edification, and the new Juridical Regime of Territorial Management Instruments. Thus herein are presented the assumptions, methodology, outcomes and conclusions of this work.It is applied − as a case study − to the Detail Plan of Avenue Pope John XXIII, in Fátima (in the Municipality of Ourém, Portugal), but its application is generalizable to other municipalities, and it potentially strengthens their financial status.Considering the current widespread crisis, and taking advantage from the experience of homologous value capture instruments in other countries, the proposed instrument is intended to contribute to strengthen municipal finance. It faces more clearly and objectively the funding of territorial planning and urban development. It further aims at developing understandable, quantifiable and user-friendly decision-support instruments, and at reassigning the betterments engendered by public planning decisions on behalf of communities.This concept and methodology supports the consolidation of the objectives of the new Portuguese Land and Planning Act. It indeed fosters the integration of territorial policies, strengthens effectiveness in plan execution, supports the economic and financial sustainability of urban development operations, and promotes equity as well as social and territorial cohesion.     

A Genetic Algorithm Approach to Farm Investment

A farm portfolio model is specified with two risky enterprises and a risk-free asset which may be held short or long by the farmer. The model is solved numerically using a genetic algorithm. It is shown that the assumption of competitive adaptation leads to a violation of normative efficiency. Those who survive are not the most efficient in a normative sense.