Auctions in bankruptcy

This paper examines whether mandatory auctions promote the efficient restructuring of distressed firms relative to a reorganization-based bankruptcy system such as Chapter 11. Under a mandatory auction system, aggressive bidding by a coalition of incumbent management and pre-bankruptcy creditors may deter outside bidders, may result in the coalition paying more than its valuation to acquire the firm, and may result in assets remaining in a lower value use. In a reorganization-based bankruptcy system, management's voluntary choice to seek an auction conveys information about the coalition's valuation, which facilitates competition. Our model shows that a reorganization-based bankruptcy system that encourages, but does not mandate auctions, can actually increase the likelihood that an outside bidder enters and the assets of the bankrupt firm are redeployed.     

The response of competitors to announcements of bankruptcy: An empirical examination of contagion and competitive effects

We find, like [Lang, L.H.P., Stulz, R.M., 1992. Contagion and competitive intra-industry effects of bankruptcy announcements: An empirical analysis, Journal of Financial Economics, 32(1), 45–60], that large firm bankruptcies generate a dominant contagion effect. A value-weighted portfolio of competitors' stocks experiences a significant loss of 0.56% in the three days centered around the Chapter 11 announcement. This represents an average loss of $3.32 for all the competitors combined for every dollar lost by the bankrupt firm. In addition, we find that small firm bankruptcies also generate a dominant contagion effect among smaller sized competitors; an equally-weighted portfolio of all competitors has a significant 0.12% drop. In a new approach to separate the contagion and competitive effects, we compare the stock price reactions of competitors who themselves subsequently file for bankruptcy in the next three years (candidates for contagion effect) with those who do not do so (candidates for competitive effect). As expected, candidates for contagion effect experience a significant, negative three-day stock price reaction of −4.68%. However, contrary to expectations, candidates for competitive effect also have a significant, negative return (−0.49%), suggesting that the competitive effect is weak at best since it is dominated by the contagion effect even in this sample. Other procedures to identify candidates for competitive effect generally yield similar findings. Finally, we analyze competitors' stock price reactions based on selected characteristics (e.g., industry concentration, and leverage), with similar results as before. One explanation for the failure to detect a competitive effect is that the impact may already have been incorporated in stock prices prior to the filing for Chapter 11. Consistent with this explanation, we find significant positive stock price reactions by competitor stocks for the hundred days prior to the bankruptcy announcement.     

Financial distress, bankruptcy law and the business cycle

This paper explores the business cycle implications of financial distress and bankruptcy law. We find that due to the presence of financial imperfections the effect of liquidations on the price of capital goods can generate endogenous fluctuations. We show that a law reform that ‘softens’ bankruptcy law may increase the amplitude of the cycle in the long run. In contrast, a policy of bailing out businesses during the bust or actively managing the interest rate across the cycle could stabilize the economy in the long run. A comprehensive welfare analysis of these policies is provided as well.      

Firms’ performance under different bankruptcy systems: a Europe–USA empirical analysis

This study empirically analyses the effect that the bankruptcy law has on firms’ performance based on its financial situation. To do this, we considered the different types of efficiency and their influence on firms’ value. The study was carried out for Germany, Spain, the United States, France and the United Kingdom. We applied System‐GMM estimation to dynamic panel data. The main results show that under creditor‐oriented systems, there is a decrease in the value of both financially distressed firms and those filing for bankruptcy.     

Empirical comparison of hazard models in predicting SMEs failure

This study aims to shed light on the debate concerning the choice between discrete-time and continuous-time hazard models in making bankruptcy or any binary prediction using interval censored data. Building on the theoretical suggestions from various disciplines, we empirically compare widely used discrete-time hazard models (with logit and clog-log links) and the continuous-time Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model in predicting bankruptcy and financial distress of the United States Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). Consistent with the theoretical arguments, we report that discrete-time hazard models are superior to the continuous-time CPH model in making binary predictions using interval censored data. Moreover, hazard models developed using a failure definition based jointly on bankruptcy laws and firms’ financial health exhibit superior goodness of fit and classification measures, in comparison to models that employ a failure definition based either on bankruptcy laws or firms’ financial health alone.     

The probability of bankruptcy: A comparison of empirical predictions and theoretical models

The last decade has witnessed the development of many empirical models to predict corporate bankruptcy and of several bankruptcy theories. This paper reviews and integrates these two strands of research and finds a substantial amount of overlap. However, the overlap is not perfect. The paper presents a new theory of bankruptcy that appears to fit the data better. The paper also suggests directions for future empirical and theoretical research.     

A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an up-to-date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.     

An empirical comparison of GARCH option pricing models

Recent empirical studies have shown that GARCH models can be successfully used to describe option prices. Pricing such contracts requires knowledge of the risk neutral cumulative return distribution. Since the analytical forms of these distributions are generally unknown, computationally intensive numerical schemes are required for pricing to proceed. Heston and Nandi (2000) consider a particular GARCH structure that permits analytical solutions for pricing European options and they provide empirical support for their model. The analytical tractability comes at a potential cost of realism in the underlying GARCH dynamics. In particular, their model falls in the affine family, whereas most GARCH models that have been examined fall in the non-affine family. This article takes a closer look at this model with the objective of establishing whether there is a cost to restricting focus to models in the affine family. We confirm Heston and Nandi's findings, namely that their model can explain a significant portion of the volatility smile. However, we show that a simple non affine NGARCH option model is superior in removing biases from pricing residuals for all moneyness and maturity categories especially for out-the-money contracts. The implications of this finding are examined. JEL Classification G13     

A re-evaluation of auditors’ opinions versus statistical models in bankruptcy prediction

Existent empirical evidence on the relative performance of auditors’ going concern opinions versus statistical models in predicting bankruptcy is mixed. This study attempts to add new reliable evidence on this important issue by conducting the comparison based upon an improved statistical model. The improved statistical model incorporates some new developments advocated by recent bankruptcy prediction research (e.g., Shumway, 2001). First, the following non-traditional variables are added: a composite measure of financial distress, industry failure rate, abnormal stock returns, and market capitalization. Secondly, a hazard model is employed. The prediction ability of the hazard model with incorporation of non-financial-ratio variables is superior to that of auditors’ going concern opinions in the holdout sample. This suggests that a well-developed statistical model could serve as a decision aid for auditors to better make going-concern judgments. Further analyses reveal some evidence that industry failure rate does not have a significant impact upon auditors’ going concern judgments as it should be; auditors could improve their going concern judgments by considering industry-level information in addition to firm-specific information. Finally, we find that auditors’ opinions do have incremental contribution beyond stock-market information and industry failure rate in predicting bankruptcy.

Determinants of bankruptcy regime choice for Canadian public firms

Distressed Canadian public firms usually file for bankruptcy protection under either the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA) or the more flexible Companies Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA). The latter targets reorganization while the BIA focuses on both reorganization and liquidation. This paper examines the factors that enter into the choice of either of these two regimes by bankrupt filing public firms. We document that firms are more likely to file under the CCAA when the global stock market is bullish. Larger firms, more leveraged firms and firms with higher quality bankruptcy trustees are more likely to file under CCAA. The worst performing firms also tend to file under the CCAA. Finally firms in Ontario and Quebec have a tendency to file more frequently under the BIA compared to other provinces.     

An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices

We explore the ability of alternative popular continuous-time diffusion and jump-diffusion processes to capture the dynamics of implied volatility indices over time. The performance of the various models is assessed under both econometric and financial metrics. To this end, data are employed from major European and American implied volatility indices and the rapidly growing CBOE volatility futures market. We find that the addition of jumps is necessary to capture the evolution of implied volatility indices under both metrics. Mean reversion is of second-order importance though. The results are consistent across the various metrics, markets, and construction methodologies.     

The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study

Theoretically-driven, market-based contingent claims models have recently been applied to the field of corporate insolvency prediction in an attempt to provide the art with a theoretical methodology that has been lacking in the past. Limited studies have been carried out in order directly to compare the performance of these models with that of their accounting number-based counterparts. We use receiver operating characteristic curves to assess the efficacy of thirteen selected models using, for the first time, post-IFRS UK data; and investigate the distributional properties of model efficacy. We find that the efficacy of the models is generally less than that reported in the prior literature; but that the contingent claims models outperform models which use accounting numbers. We also obtain the counter-intuitive finding that predictions based on a single variable can be as efficient as those which are based on models which are far more complicated – in terms of variable variety and mathematical construction. Finally, we develop and test a naïve version of the down-and-out-call barrier option model for insolvency prediction and find that, despite its simple formulation, it performs favourably compared alongside other contingent claims models.     

Alternative models for hedging yield curve risk: An empirical comparison

We test alternative models of yield curve risk by hedging US Treasury bond portfolios through note/bond futures. We show that traditional implementations of models based on principal component analysis, duration vectors and key rate duration lead to high exposure to model errors and to sizable transaction costs, thus lowering the hedging quality. Also, this quality randomly varies from one model and hedging problem to the other. We show that accounting for the variance of modeling errors substantially reduces both hedging errors and transaction costs for all considered models. Additionally, it leads to much more stable weights in the hedging portfolios and – as a result – to more homogeneous hedging quality. On this basis, error-adjusted principal component analysis is found to systematically and significantly outperform alternative models.     

Consumer durables and risky borrowing: The effects of bankruptcy protection

There exist substantial differences in the generosity of bankruptcy protection across U.S. states. This paper exploits cross-state variation in exemption levels to assess the dual role of durable goods as informal collateral for unsecured debt and self-insurance against bad shocks to earnings. The generosity of bankruptcy protection is found to change both the incentives and the ability of households to accumulate durable wealth. The gains from a high level of insurance are reduced by the effect of tighter credit constraints, so that the net effects of a change in exemption are very small. A more generous bankruptcy regulation reduces net durable wealth in the first half of the life cycle. In addition, the optimal level of exemption is positive but low.     

Financial distress,outside directors and corporate tax aggressiveness spanning the global financial crisis: An empirical analysis

We examine financial distress and tax aggressiveness spanning the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the impact of the interaction between board independence and firm-specific financial distress on tax aggressiveness. Our regression results show that both financial distress and the GFC are positively associated with tax aggressiveness. More importantly, we find that the positive association between financial distress and tax aggressiveness is magnified by the GFC. We also observe that the interaction between board independence and financial distress is positively associated with tax aggressiveness. Our results are robust to multiple measures of financial distress and tax aggressiveness.     

Stiffing the creditor: Asset verifiability and bankruptcy

Evidence suggests that asset pledgeability, debt complexity, and control rights of dispersed debt influence financial distress resolution. We model how courts’ imperfect verifiability of assets and valuable control of misaligned creditors shape firms’ debt structure and create coordination problems that determine distress outcomes and financing. A key result is that an increase in verifiability allows financially constrained firms to fund projects by pledging more assets to misaligned creditors, making contract renegotiation in distress times more difficult and increasing the probability of bankruptcy. Since equity receives less in the event of distress, constrained firms choose riskier projects with higher returns. Consistent with our model, bankruptcy filings increase after the U.S. Supreme Court decision imposing a “market test” to assess the value of stockholders’ interest in debtor proposals. The effect is stronger for firms with low asset verifiability. These firms also experienced an increase in recovery rates, debt capacity, and risk-taking. Our findings suggest that reforms improving the verifiability of assets substantially impact credit access. However, our results also point out that improving asset verifiability may be insufficient for constrained firms with aligned creditors. Therefore, complementary reforms that facilitate firms’ access to creditors from different market segments may be necessary.     

Effect of corporate tax avoidance activities on firm bankruptcy risk

Corporate tax avoidance has been shown to raise the cost of bank debt and lower credit and bond ratings. However, it is unclear whether tax avoidance actually increases a firm’s bankruptcy risk or whether it is just viewed negatively by banks and rating agencies. We find that firms engaging in tax avoidance and firms that are thinly capitalized face higher bankruptcy risk. To account for endogeneity and functional form misspecification, we verify our results using instrumental variable and propensity score matching methods. Our findings are consistent with the view that tax avoidance is a risk-enhancing activity.     

The pricing of deposit insurance considering bankruptcy costs and closure policies

The paper aims to study the pricing issue of deposit insurance with explicit consideration of bankruptcy costs and closure policies. Full coverage from deposit insurance is imposed by many regulators to stabilize the banking system in the current financial crisis, despite of the potential moral hazard problems. We argue that bankruptcy cost is an important factor in pricing deposit insurance, especially when the insured institution is insolvent. Applying the isomorphic relationship between deposit insurance and put option, we first derive a closed-form solution for the pricing model with bankruptcy costs and closure policies. Then, we modify the barrier option approach to price the deposit insurance in which the bankruptcy cost is set as a function of asset return volatility and more realistic closure policies considering possible forbearance can be accounted for. The properties of the models are supported by numerical simulations and are consistent with the risk-based pricing scheme.     

American option pricing with discrete and continuous time models: An empirical comparison

This paper considers discrete time GARCH and continuous time SV models and uses these for American option pricing. We first of all show that with a particular choice of framework the parameters of the SV models can be estimated using simple maximum likelihood techniques. We then perform a Monte Carlo study to examine their differences in terms of option pricing, and we study the convergence of the discrete time option prices to their implied continuous time values. Finally, a large scale empirical analysis using individual stock options and options on an index is performed comparing the estimated prices from discrete time models to the corresponding continuous time model prices. The results show that, while the overall differences in performance are small, for the in the money put options on individual stocks the continuous time SV models do generally perform better than the discrete time GARCH specifications.     

The minimum variance hedge and the bankruptcy risk of the firm

In this paper, we analyze the influence of hedging with forward contracts on the firm's probability of bankruptcy (POB). The minimization of this probability can serve as a substitute for the maximization of shareholders' wealth. It is shown that the popular minimum variance hedge is generally neither necessary nor sufficient for the minimization of the firm's POB. Moreover, our model suggests a correction of the widespread view that a reduction in the variance of the future value of the firm is inevitably accompanied by a reduction in its default risk. We derive an analytical solution for the variance-minimizing hedge ratio of a firm exposed to both input and output price uncertainty that takes into account the issue of correlation. Based on this solution, we provide a graphical analysis to prove our claim that there is a fundamental difference between hedging policies focused on bankruptcy risk and those following conventional wisdom even if positive correlation constitutes a “natural” hedge.