从股票错误定价看投资-现金流敏感性

在传统的投资-现金流敏感性研究基础上,本文运用中国上市公司2003-2008年面板数据,考察了盈余管理造成的股票错误定价对公司投资-现金流敏感性的影响.本文的实证结果表明:当股价处于上升通道中时(即投资者看好投资前景时),公司的投资-现金流敏感性较高,并且融资约束对公司的投资-现金流敏感性影响显著,但盈余操纵导致错误定价对公司投资-现金流敏感性影响不大;股指处于下降通道时,通过盈余操纵导致股价高估的公司,往往无法获得外部股权融资,只体现了更高的稳定股价和投资的意愿,因此,此类公司的投资-现金流敏感性较高.本文运用信息不对称理论,结合投资者情绪和管理者行为分析,对研究结果进行了解释并指出了后续研究的方向.     

Fairness versus efficiency: An experimental study of (mutual) gift giving

Fairness is a strong concern as shown by dictator and ultimatum experiments. Efficiency, measured by the sum of individual payoffs, is a potentially competing concern in games, such as the prisoners’ dilemma. In our experiment, the participants can increase efficiency by giving gifts. In the one-sided treatment, this is only possible for one of the two partners. The two-sided treatment allows for mutual gift giving. In both cases, decisions can be conditioned on whether there is or there is not an efficiency gain by gift giving. Our results indicate that efficiency concerns are dominated by fairness concerns that are less stringent in mutual exchanges than in one-sided gift relationships.     

Are dictators averse to inequality?

We present the results of an experiment designed to identify more clearly the motivation underlying dictators’ behavior. In the typical dictator game, recipients are given no endowment. We give an endowment to the recipient as well as the dictator. This new dimension allows us to test directly for inequality aversion. Our results confirm that the inequality between dictator's and recipient's endowment is a key determinant of the dictator's giving. As we increase the recipient's endowment from 0 to an amount equal to the dictator's endowment, the mean amount passed drops from 30 percent to less than 12 percent of the dictator's endowment, and the proportion of dictators who pass positive amounts falls from 75 percent to 26 percent. Thus the majority of dictators exhibit behavior consistent with inequality averse preferences. On the other hand, only 24 percent of dictators split payoffs equally suggesting that maximin preferences are less important drivers of dictators’ giving.     

Finitely Repeated Voluntary Provision of a Public Good

This paper theoretically explores the voluntary provision of a public good when either one of the following holds: (i) agents’ utility is the sum of their monetary earnings and a nonmaterial component, or (ii) agents’ exhibit satisficing behavior. We show that a small degree of either nonmaterial payoffs or satisficing behavior can generate large contributions in a finitely repeated game, even if the incentive to free‐ride on others’ contributions calls for negligible public good provision in the static game. The equilibrium is characterized by a sharp decline in contributions toward the end of the game. Several comparative results regarding group size and technology are consistent with laboratory data obtained in experimental studies. The model also predicts the restart effect observed in previous experiments.     

Culture sometimes matters: Intra-cultural variation in pro-social behavior among Tsimane Amerindians

Agent-centered models usually consider only individual-level variables in calculations of economic costs and benefits. There has been little consideration of social or cultural history on shaping payoffs in ways that impact decisions. To examine the role of local expectations on economic behavior, we explore whether village affiliation accounts for the variation in dictator game offers among the Tsimane of the Bolivian Amazon independently of other factors that could confound such an effect. Our analysis shows that significant differences in altruistic giving exist among villages, village patterns are recognized by residents, and offers likely reflect variation in social expectations rather than stable differences in norms of fairness.     

Probabilities vs Money: A Test of some Fundamental Assumptions About Rational Decision Making

This paper describes an experiment where respondents were asked to tackle two decision tasks which were very similar in structure, but which differed in that one problem involved direct money payoffs while the other involved payoffs in the form of probabilities of winning a given sum of money. According to most decision models, most risk averse individuals might be expected to behave quite differently under the two conditions. But the behaviour actually observed does not accord with this expectation. The paper discusses possible reasons for this and the potential implicati ons of such findings     

股权再融资、盈余管理与大股东的寻租行为

我国上市公司处于大股东的超强控制状态,大股东与中小股东之间存在严重的信息不对称,导致大股东在股权再融资过程中表现出强烈的盈余管理动机.本文研究了我国资本市场参与者的行为与盈余管理之间的关系,并分析了对资本配置效率的影响效应.大股东通过操纵报告盈余来改变会计盈余的时间分布和误导投资者,从而攫取更多的隐性收益,造成资本市场配置效率的降低.研究结果表明:(1)大股东通过盈余管理在股权再融资过程中可以获得中小股东无法得到的隐性收益;(2)大股东的收益随着盈余管理程度的增加而提升,中小股东的财富随着盈余管理程度的增加而降低;(3)盈余管理程度的增加将降低上市公司的资本配置效率和企业价值.因此,大股东通过盈余管理实现了对小股东财富的掠夺效应,造成了上市公司资本配置效率、公司价值、声誉和后续融资能力的下降.     

Multiunit Pay‐Your‐Bid Auction with One‐Dimensional Multiunit Demands*

An arbitrary number of units of a good is sold to two bidders through a discriminatory auction. The bidders are homogeneous ex ante and their demand functions are two‐step functions that depend on a single parameter. We characterize the symmetric Bayesian equilibrium and prove its existence and uniqueness. We compare this equilibrium with the equilibrium of the multiunit Vickrey auction and with the equilibria of the single‐unit first price and second price auctions. We examine the consequences of bundling all units into one package. We study the impacts that variations of the “relative” supply have on the equilibrium, on the bidders' average payoffs per unit, and on the efficiency of the equilibrium allocation.     

股票价格对内在价值的偏离度分析

本文考察了奥尔森 (Ohlson)剩余收益定价理论 ,指出了传统线性信息模型的不足 ,提出了公司存续期有限和公司存续期无限但剩余收益存续期有限情况下的内净率 (内在价值 净资产比率 )决定模型。对资本成本、净资产收益率、分红规则和剩余收益存续期对内净率的影响进行了模拟。根据上市公司近年来的业绩记录 ,通过内净率与市净率的比较发现 ,目前中国上市公司的股价大大高于其内在价值 ,其中ST类公司的股价与其内在价值偏离的更多。本文认为 ,当前股市正在经历具有体制性、结构性特点的调整 ,决定了这一调整过程的长期性。     

Heterogeneous preferences for altruism: gender and personality,social status,giving and taking

Some of the earliest work on heterogeneity in social preferences focuses on gender differences in behavior. The source of these gender differences is the main interest of this paper. We report on dictator game experiments designed to identify heterogeneity of other-regarding preferences according to personality, gender, status, and whether the choice is framed as giving or taking. We find that the effect of gender on giving is more subtle than previously understood, and is explained collectively by various personality factors. We also find that women, high status treatment individuals, and individuals in the giving language treatment give less, and are also less sensitive to the price of giving.     

城镇消费者对有机农产品的购买意愿分析——以有机大米消费为研究对象

基于对北京市、武汉市城镇消费者对有机大米的消费行为调查,分析了有机农产品溢价购买意愿和边际购买意愿。运用联合分析法研究发现,当前消费者对有机农产品的溢价购买意愿倾向比较低,但边际购买意愿较高,价格过高限制了有机农产品的推广。另外,消费者对有机农产品的认知水平、品牌因素对消费者购买意愿有着重要的影响作用。     

An experimental test of the crowding out hypothesis

We report the results of laboratory experiments that examine whether third-party contributions crowd out private giving to charity. Subjects play a single dictator game with a charity as the recipient. The subject chooses his preferred charity from a list. There are four treatment combinations: two initial allocations and two frames. Initial allocations are either US$18 for the subject and US$2 for the charity, or US$15 and US$5, respectively, and the subject is then given the opportunity to allocate additional funds if desired. The decision frame is also varied to affect subjects' perceptions of the task. In one frame, subjects are simply informed of the initial allocations between themselves and their chosen charity. In the other, subjects are told that their US$20 allocation has been taxed, and the amount allocated to their chosen charity. The structure of payoffs is identical in both frames. In the first frame, we see a level of crowding out that is close to zero, far less than other experimental studies; in the second frame, we observe nearly 100% crowding out.     

Anonymity in the dictator game revisited

Giving in the dictator game has often been interpreted as evidence of other-regarding preferences. We suspect that giving is determined by subjects’ attempts to appear fair in the eyes of recipients and the experimenter. Therefore, we investigate behavior in the dictator game by using the randomized response technique to increase anonymity. Overall, 290 subjects participated in two experiments. The results demonstrate that the randomized response technique reduces giving to negligible amounts compared to the standard double blind condition. Thus, our results suggest that individuals closely follow egoistic motives in the dictator game when anonymity is convincingly implemented.     

Blindfolded vs. Informed Ultimatum Bargaining – A Theoretical and Experimental Analysis

This paper analyzes blindfolded vs. informed ultimatum bargaining where proposer and responder are both either uninformed or informed about the size of the pie. Considering the transition from one information setting to another suggests that more information induces lower (higher) price offers and acceptance thresholds when the pie is small (large). While our experimental data confirm this transition effect, risk aversion leads to diverging results in blindfolded ultimatum bargaining where task‐independent strategies such as ‘equal sharing’ or the ‘golden mean’ are implemented more frequently.     

Keeping others in our mind or in our heart? Distribution games under cognitive load

It has recently been argued that giving is spontaneous while greed is calculated (Rand et al., in Nature 489:427–430, 2012). If greed is calculated we would expect that cognitive load, which is assumed to reduce the influence of cognitive processes, should affect greed. In this paper we study both charitable giving and the behavior of dictators under high and low cognitive load to test if greed is affected by the load. This is tested in three different dictator game experiments. In the dictator games we use both a give frame, where the dictators are given an amount that they may share with a partner, and a take frame, where dictators may take from an amount initially allocated to the partner. The results from all three experiments show that the behavioral effect in terms of allocated money of the induced load is small if at all existent. At the same time, follow-up questions indicate that the subjects’ decisions are more impulsive and less driven by their thoughts under cognitive load.     

Price discrimination in Cournot–Nash oligopoly

The standard Cournot–Nash oligopoly model is extended to encompass price discrimination, where firms charge more than one price for the same product based on willingness to pay. In the linear, symmetric case, the average price is not dependent on the extent of price discrimination.     

Ultimatum Bargaining Behavior in Israel, Japan, Slovenia, and the United States: A Social Utility Analysis

We explain the main features of the results of the four-country ultimatum bargaining experiments of Roth et al. (1991), Amer. Econom. Rev.81, 1068–1095) by a social utility model. The specification of social utility of a player has two parts: a linear combination of the monetary payoffs of the proposer and the responder and payoff uncertainty. We find that, on average, responders have negative regard for proposers' earnings in all countries. Proposers have negative regard for responders' monetary earnings in countries where responders have high negative regard for proposers' earnings (USA and Slovenia). In countries where responders have low negative regard for proposers' earnings (Israel and Japan), proposers are expected payoff maximizers. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: A13, C19, C44, C72, C92, D63, D64.     

Mixed feelings: Theories of and evidence on giving

This paper examines possible motives and institutional factors that impact giving. Specifically, I consider alternative theories parallel to dictator experiments that generate evidence on both allocation decisions and their effect on feelings. A number of new empirical findings as well as new interpretations for previously reported findings result. A novel test distinguishes warm glow from impure altruism and rules out the former as the sole motive for giving. Very generous donations to charities that aid the needy (with modal gifts of the entire dictator's stakes) cannot be attributed to familiarity with the charities. A charity that offers a matching grant increases its revenues by drawing donors and donations away from one that does not, although aggregate charitable donations do not rise. Additional results on emotions paint a picture of “mixed feelings:” generosity creates good feelings when the recipients are charities and bad feelings when they are fellow students. No group of dictators, however, feels better, on average, than a control group that is given no opportunity to donate. I propose a simple model that accounts for these results on allocation behavior and feelings by incorporating elements of two approaches, unconditional altruism and social preference theories, that to date have mostly evolved independently. A critical feature of this model is the social norm, and the results of the experiments corroborate the theory in the context of two norms of distributive justice that are important to real world giving: equity and need.     

Reciprocity—an indirect evolutionary analysis

This paper investigates agents who face a stylized pecuniary ‘game of life’ comprising the ultimatum game and the dictator game. Utility may but need not be attached to equity and reciprocity, as formalized by Falk and Fischbacher (Games Econom Behav, 54(2): 293–315, 2006) but, critically, this social component of preferences cannot be conditioned on whether an ultimatum or a dictator game is played. Evolutionary fitness of agents is determined solely by material success. Under these conditions, a strong preference for reciprocity, but little interest in equity as such evolves. Possible exogenous constraints that link reciprocity and equity concerns imply long-run levels of both which depend on the relative frequency of ultimatum vs. dictator interaction in agents’ multi-game environment. Financial support from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) is gratefully acknowledged.