Intra- and Inter-industry Externalities from Foreign Direct Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector: New Evidence from Mexican Regions

This paper presents new empirical evidence on externalities from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in several Mexican regions in the early 1990s. The main findings are threefold. First, the presence of FDI creates negative externalities within industries and positive externalities between industries through backward linkages. Second, FDI-externalities are stimulated by large technological differences between FDI and Mexican firms and by geographic concentration of industries. Third, we identify a substantial level of regional heterogeneity of the externality impact of FDI, in line with the notion that FDI may have contributed to processes of changing regional prosperity under trade liberalization. The findings also imply that maquiladora firms in the border states are generating positive externalities.     

Post-Conflict Reconstruction and the Challenge to International Organizations: The Case of El Salvador

Countries in post-conflict transitions have to reconcile the development challenge with the additional burden of reconstruction and national reconciliation. This paper first describes the peculiarities of these countries which make them clearly different from those pursuing normal development. Second is a discussion of the challenges that these transitions pose on the countries involved and on the international organizations that support them. Third, the paper illustrates through a discussion of El Salvador—by all standards a success story—how the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations had to adapt to meet the challenges of post-conflict reconstruction. The paper concludes with some policy recommendations.     

Changes in the Distribution of Household Income in Brazil: The Role of Male and Female Earnings

Annual survey data spanning three decades and a non-parametric technique for constructing counterfactual distributions are employed to analyze the relationship between earnings and the distribution of household income in Brazil. Results show that significant changes in the structure of female earnings reflecting rising wages and participation rates had limited equalizing consequences but considerable poverty-reducing effects. These developments counterbalanced poverty-increasing changes in the structure of male earnings. A stable macroeconomic environment was associated with a consistent but a limited fall in inequality and a strong decline in poverty mainly related to rising earnings among women at the lower end of the household income distribution.     

Arresting the Killer in the Kitchen: The Promises and Pitfalls of Commercializing Improved Cookstoves

In a shift exemplary of neoliberal approaches to development, major funders of household energy interventions have begun to emphasize market-based stove dissemination over partially subsidized models. Stove promoters are increasingly expected to operate as self-sustaining businesses. This shift is viewed as a way to “scale-up” in order to reach millions of poor households lacking access to clean cooking technologies. Using the case of GIRA, an NGO that has successfully distributed cookstoves in Mexico’s Central Highlands for nearly two decades, we demonstrate how this trend presents challenges for organizations operating effectively with outside funding in highly contextual local conditions.     

Flood Fatalities in the United States: The Roles of Socioeconomic Factors and the National Flood Insurance Program

Flooding is the most frequent disaster type among all severe weather events in the United States. Over the 20‐year period from 1996 to 2015, a total of 107,743 floods resulted in 1563 fatalities and over $167 billion in damages. Climate models suggest that the risk of major flooding will increase in the coming years. In this article, we provide new analysis of the life‐saving role of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) using county‐level data for the United States over the years 1996–2015. The integrated view of the physical, social, economic, and political elements of disaster vulnerability guides the empirical analysis. Our analysis indicates that people most affected by floods are those who have weaker economic and social bases; lower education levels and poor housing quality increase flood vulnerability. We also find that local government spending on public safety and welfare significantly reduces overall flood vulnerability. Importantly, our estimates present new evidence that ex ante floodplain management and mitigation efforts required for participation in the NFIP have played a vital role in reducing flood‐related fatalities.     

Old‐Age Government Transfers and the Crowding Out of Private Gifts: The 70 and Above Program for the Rural Elderly in Mexico

We estimate the crowding out of private transfers caused by 70 y Más –a public assistance program for the rural elderly in Mexico for whom family support is an important source of income. Using data from the Mexican Income and Expenditure Survey and a triple difference approach, we find that the program crowds out private gifts by 37%, and it does so mostly by reducing the probability of receiving domestic remittances. As a result, the nonlabor income of beneficiaries increases by less than their government transfers. Thus, by reducing their private support to the elderly, domestic donors are dampening the effect of the program, although not completely neutralizing it.     

中国“三农”创新创业政策的历史演进：基于中央一号文件的语料库研究

创新创业成为中国解决"三农"问题的重要途径，而"三农"创新创业与国家相关政策的引导和支持密不可分。学者们对"三农"创新创业关注颇多，但尚未对相关政策进行系统的历时梳理，难以从整体上把握"三农"创新创业政策的发展脉络。文章基于话语历史分析框架、运用语料库研究方法对历年中央一号文件进行话语分析，以此透视中国"三农"创新创业政策的历史演进。研究发现，随着历史阶段的逐步推进：（1）中央一号文件始终围绕"农村"和"农业"的主题，对"创新"、"创业"及其部分同义词的提及率逐步甚至迅速上升，这在话语上佐证了政府日趋重视"三农"创新创业；（2）中央一号文件中"农民"的关键性有所降低，对其他创新创业主体和形式的提及率逐步上升，表明"三农"创新创业的主体趋于多元化、内容逐渐丰富；（3）中央一号文件政策话语中的政策态度从"加快"、"实行"逐步过渡到"稳定"与"完善"，说明"三农"创新创业政策体系已逐步形成。研究揭示了社会历史演进情境下"三农"创新创业政策的发展规律，深化了人们对核心"三农"政策及相关创新创业活动的历时性认识，而本研究对话语历史分析及语料库分析方法的引入也为政策话语分析提供了新的研究思路。